OLED · Technology(electronic components & accessories) · 10 years of annual accounts filed with the SEC · latest fiscal year ended 2025-12-31
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Universal Display Corp \PA\ reported revenue of $650.6 million in fiscal 2025, after growing 14.1% a year over the previous 9 years. Its operating margin widened from 34.4% in 2016 to 38.2%. Of the $1.6 billion its operations generated over 10 years, 22.6% went back into the business and 21.6% to dividends; the share count rose 2.4%. On the accounting screens, it passes 4 of 8 Piotroski tests, its Altman Z'' of 15.05 is in the safe zone and its Beneish M-score is below the -1.78 line; 1 of the six cross-checks between its statements fires.
Revenue, fiscal 2025650.6M+14.1% a year over 9 years
Operating margin38.2%gross margin 76.3%
Return on invested capital—
Free cash flow after stock pay126.1M19.4% of revenue
Net debt ÷ EBITDA—net debt —
Piotroski F-score4/8tests of improvement passed
Is it growing?
Revenue and the operating income it turns into. Growth that does not reach operating income is growth bought with margin.
RevenueOperating income
0200.0M400.0M600.0M800.0M
2016Revenue 198.9MOperating income 68.4M
2017Revenue 335.6MOperating income 146.2M
2018Revenue 247.4MOperating income 56.7M
2019Revenue 405.2MOperating income 158.3M
2020Revenue 428.9MOperating income 157.5M
2021Revenue 553.5MOperating income 227.6M
2022Revenue 616.6MOperating income 267.1M
2023Revenue 576.4MOperating income 217.2M
2024Revenue 647.7MOperating income 238.8M
2025Revenue 650.6MOperating income 248.6M
2016201720182019202020212022202320242025
Compound growth a year
3 yrs
5 yrs
9 yrs
Revenue
+1.8%
+8.7%
+14.1%
Operating income
-2.4%
+9.6%
+15.4%
Net income
+4.8%
+12.7%
+19.7%
Earnings per share
+4.7%
+12.5%
+19.4%
Free cash flow per share
+22.2%
+4.8%
+8.4%
Dividend per share
+14.3%
+24.4%
—
Shares
+0.1%
+0.2%
+0.3%
Falling shares are buybacks: each remaining share owns more of the company.
Does it earn more than its capital costs?
Margins say how much of each sale is kept; return on invested capital says how much the business earns on the money it needs to operate. Growth only creates value when that return is above the cost of the capital.
Return on invested capitalCost of capital today · 10.2%
0.0%5.0%10.0%15.0%
2016
2017
2018
2019
2020
2021
2022
2023
2024
2025
2016201720182019202020212022202320242025
Economic profit
Needs a cost of capital, which comes from the valuation below.
Return on equity
13.7%
Return on assets
12.3%
Asset turnover
0.33×
Research & development
22.5% of revenue
Overheads (SG&A)
11.4% of revenue
Is the profit cash, and where does the cash go?
Net income is an accounting opinion; free cash flow is what was left in the bank after investing. Stock-based pay does not leave the bank — shareholders pay it through dilution — so it is shown taken off as well.
Net incomeFree cash flowAfter stock-based pay
0100.0M200.0M300.0M
2016Net income 48.1MFree cash flow 73.0MAfter stock-based pay 61.7M
2017Net income 103.9MFree cash flow 103.6MAfter stock-based pay 91.3M
2018Net income 58.8MFree cash flow 96.4MAfter stock-based pay 84.0M
2019Net income 138.3MFree cash flow 163.9MAfter stock-based pay 147.7M
2020Net income 133.4MFree cash flow 120.8MAfter stock-based pay 94.2M
2021Net income 184.2MFree cash flow 147.9MAfter stock-based pay 113.1M
2022Net income 210.1MFree cash flow 84.3MAfter stock-based pay 54.4M
2023Net income 203.0MFree cash flow 95.0MAfter stock-based pay 70.9M
2024Net income 222.1MFree cash flow 211.1MAfter stock-based pay 181.1M
2025Net income 242.1MFree cash flow 154.4MAfter stock-based pay 126.1M
2016201720182019202020212022202320242025
Where 10 years of operating cash went, 2016–2025
1.6B generated by the business. Each band is its share of that total.
Reinvested in the business 23%365.1M
Acquisitions 2%33.4M
Dividends 22%349.7M
Share buybacks 2%34.0M
Kept, or used to pay down debt 52%833.2M
Over the same years it paid 226.1M in stock. The share count rose 2.4%. The buybacks did not even cover what was handed out in stock.
Per share
Earnings per shareFree cash flow per shareDividend per share
$0.00$2.00$4.00$6.00
2016Earnings per share $1.03Free cash flow per share $1.57
2017Earnings per share $2.22Free cash flow per share $2.21Dividend per share $0.12
2018Earnings per share $1.25Free cash flow per share $2.06Dividend per share $0.24
2019Earnings per share $2.94Free cash flow per share $3.49Dividend per share $0.40
2020Earnings per share $2.82Free cash flow per share $2.56Dividend per share $0.60
2021Earnings per share $3.89Free cash flow per share $3.12Dividend per share $0.00
2022Earnings per share $4.43Free cash flow per share $1.78Dividend per share $1.20
2023Earnings per share $4.26Free cash flow per share $1.99Dividend per share $1.40
2024Earnings per share $4.66Free cash flow per share $4.43Dividend per share $1.60
2025Earnings per share $5.08Free cash flow per share $3.24Dividend per share $1.79
2016201720182019202020212022202320242025
Shares outstanding
Diluted shares
46.5M47.0M47.5M48.0M
2016Diluted shares 46.5M
2017Diluted shares 46.8M
2018Diluted shares 46.9M
2019Diluted shares 47.0M
2020Diluted shares 47.2M
2021Diluted shares 47.4M
2022Diluted shares 47.5M
2023Diluted shares 47.6M
2024Diluted shares 47.7M
2025Diluted shares 47.7M
2016201720182019202020212022202320242025
How strong is the balance sheet?
Debt is not bad in itself; debt the business cannot service in a bad year is. Net debt is debt minus cash, and below zero the company holds more cash than it owes.
Net debt ÷ EBITDA
—
Interest coverage
— operating income ÷ interest
Current ratio
10.06 current assets ÷ current liabilities
Cash conversion cycle
583 days collects in 67d, stock 571d, pays in 55d
Three classic screens of the accounts
Each asks a different question of the same statements — is it improving, does it look like a company heading for distress, do the accounts resemble ones that were manipulated. None is a verdict; each shows what moves it.
Piotroski F-score
Is the business improving? Nine yes-or-no tests, this year against last.
4of 8 tests passed
✓ProfitableReturn on assets above zeropassed
✓Cash from operationsOperating cash flow above zeropassed
✓Profitability improvedReturn on assets higher than a year beforepassed
✕Profit backed by cashOperating cash flow above net income (low accruals)failed
–Less long-term debtLong-term debt as a share of assets fell — not reportedno data
✓More liquidCurrent ratio higher than a year beforepassed
✕No new sharesShare count did not growfailed
✕Better gross marginGross margin higher than a year beforefailed
✕Sells more per assetAsset turnover higher than a year beforefailed
Where it misleads: it measures change, not level. An excellent business that stood still for a year scores low; a poor one recovering from a disaster scores high.
Altman Z''-score
Does the balance sheet look like those of companies that went bankrupt?
15.05safe zone
1.12.6
Working capital ÷ assets 0.50 × 6.56+3.27
Retained earnings ÷ assets 0.56 × 3.26+1.81
Operating income ÷ assets 0.13 × 6.72+0.85
Equity ÷ liabilities 8.69 × 1.05+9.12
Where it misleads: buybacks. A company that returns so much cash that its equity turns small or negative sinks the last two ratios without being anywhere near bankruptcy. Banks and insurers do not fit the model at all.
Beneish M-score
Do the accounts resemble those of companies that manipulated their earnings?
-2.35below the -1.78 line
-1.78
Receivables vs sales 1.05+0.97
Gross margin slipping 1.01+0.53
Soft assets 0.84+0.34
Sales growth 1.00+0.90
Slower depreciation 1.01+0.12
Overheads vs sales 1.00-0.17
Profit not in cash 0.02+0.07
Leverage rising 0.80-0.26
Where it misleads: fast growth and acquisitions. Sales growth carries a heavy weight, so a company growing 50% a year scores like a suspect without having done anything. It is a screen from a 1999 study, not an accusation.
Where the statements disagree
Cross-checks between the income statement, the balance sheet and the cash flow for the latest year, each with the benign reading and the worrying one.
Inventory is growing 32% against revenue growing 0%.
Benign
Stocking up for a launch, or securing supply.
Worrying
Demand is softening; discounts or write-downs tend to follow.
What is it worth, under which assumptions?
A company is worth the cash it will generate, brought back to today. This model projects revenue with growth that fades over the years, applies a free cash flow margin, and discounts the result at the cost of capital. Every assumption says where it came from, and all of them can be changed.
Value per share, with these assumptions$43.15discounted at 10.2% a year · 51% of it from after year 10
Type a share price on the left to ask the reverse questions: what growth, what margin or what discount rate that price implies.
What the value implies, in the usual multiples
At this model's value
Price ÷ earnings
8.5×
Enterprise value ÷ EBITDA
7.4×
Enterprise value ÷ revenue
3.2×
Free cash flow yield
6.1%
From cash flows to a value per share
10 years of cash flow, today1.0B
Everything after, today1.0B
The whole business2.1B
Minus net debt-0
What belongs to shareholders2.1B
Divided among 47.7M shares: <strong>$43.15</strong> each.
The projection next to its history
Reported free cash flow after stock pay, then the model's. A projection that looks nothing like the past needs a reason.
ReportedProjected
0100.0M200.0M300.0M
2016Reported 61.7M
2017Reported 91.3M
2018Reported 84.0M
2019Reported 147.7M
2020Reported 94.2M
2021Reported 113.1M
2022Reported 54.4M
2023Reported 70.9M
2024Reported 181.1M
2025Reported 126.1M
2026Projected 131.1M
2027Projected 141.4M
2028Projected 151.5M
2029Projected 161.3M
2030Projected 170.8M
2031Projected 179.6M
2032Projected 187.7M
2033Projected 194.9M
2034Projected 201.0M
2035Projected 206.1M
2016201820202022202420262028203020322034
Year by year
2026
2027
2028
2029
2030
2031
2032
2033
2034
2035
Revenue
705.9M
761.2M
815.8M
868.8M
919.5M
967.0M
1.0B
1.0B
1.1B
1.1B
Growth
8.5%
7.8%
7.2%
6.5%
5.8%
5.2%
4.5%
3.8%
3.2%
2.5%
Cash margin
18.6%
18.6%
18.6%
18.6%
18.6%
18.6%
18.6%
18.6%
18.6%
18.6%
Free cash flow
131.1M
141.4M
151.5M
161.3M
170.8M
179.6M
187.7M
194.9M
201.0M
206.1M
Worth today
119.0M
116.5M
113.3M
109.5M
105.2M
100.4M
95.3M
89.8M
84.1M
78.2M
If the least-known inputs move
Value per share as two inputs change at a time. Neighbouring cells that differ a lot are the conclusion: the value depends on numbers nobody knows to a point.
The discount rate and growth forever
discount ↓ · forever →
1.5%
2.0%
2.5%
3.0%
3.5%
9.2%
45
47
50
53
57
9.7%
42
44
46
49
52
10.2%
39
41
43
46
48
10.7%
37
39
40
42
45
11.2%
35
36
38
40
42
Year-one growth and the final margin
margin ↓ · growth →
4.5%
6.5%
8.5%
10.5%
12.5%
14.9%
31
34
37
40
43
16.7%
34
37
40
43
47
18.6%
37
40
43
47
51
20.4%
39
43
46
50
54
22.3%
42
46
50
54
58
All the inputs moving at once
5,000 valuations, each with growth, final margin, discount rate and growth forever drawn at random around the values on the left (spreads of 3.0%, 2.8%, 1.0% and 0.5%). Not a probability — the spreads are assumptions too — but an honest picture of how wide the answer is.
10th percentile$32.98
Median$43.27
90th percentile$58.04
$40.00$60.00
Half of the simulations land between <b>$37.36</b> and <b>$50.03</b>; one in ten below $32.98, one in ten above $58.04.
Does the long run make sense?
5.8×The terminal value prices the business in year 10 at 5.8 times that year's EBITDA.
6%To grow 2.5% forever while reinvesting 41% of its after-tax operating profit, the business must earn 6% on the new capital.
51%of the value comes from after year 10. The more of it, the more the answer depends on the part nobody can see.
What lenders charge, after the tax saving on interest: 6.67% × (1 − 17.9%) = <strong>5.48%</strong>.
Weighted by how much of each the company uses (book value (no price given)): <strong>10.17%</strong>, the rate every future cash flow is discounted at.
What it has filed lately
The last twelve months at the SEC, most important first: annual and quarterly reports, events, large holders and insiders.
Every Form 4 filed in the last twelve months, read line by line: 6 filings by 5 people. Open-market purchases and sales are counted apart from awards, option exercises and shares withheld for taxes.
Bought on the open market—none in the period
Sold on the open market$422,0922 sale(s) by 1 insider(s)
Under pre-arranged plans0%of the sales followed a 10b5-1 plan set months earlier
A Form 4 says what happened, when, how many shares and at what price. It does not say why: a sale can be diversification, a tax bill or a plan fixed months earlier, and an award is pay, not a purchase. Nothing here is a reason to buy or sell anything.
Which large funds report holding it
From the Form 13F of the 28 institutions followed on this site, as of the end of their last reported quarter. A 13F is filed up to 45 days later and shows only long positions in US-listed shares.
Accounts from the company's own SEC filings; lines some companies do not report are shown as a dash rather than estimated. The risk-free rate is the 10-year US Treasury yield. A DCF is a way of making assumptions explicit, not a forecast: it states what the company would be worth if the assumptions held. The scores are screens that point where to look, not verdicts. Nothing here is a recommendation to buy or sell.