NWE · Utilities(electric & other services combined) · 6 years of annual accounts filed with the SEC · latest fiscal year ended 2025-12-31
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NorthWestern Energy Group, Inc. reported revenue of $1.6 billion in fiscal 2025. Of the $1.8 billion its operations generated over 6 years, 142.5% went back into the business and 40.9% to dividends. On the accounting screens, it passes 5 of 8 Piotroski tests, its Altman Z'' of 1.00 is in the distress zone and its Beneish M-score is below the -1.78 line; 2 of the six cross-checks between its statements fire.
Revenue, fiscal 20251.6B
Operating margin20.2%gross margin —
Return on invested capital5.1%5.1% on average over 4 years
Free cash flow after stock pay-137.0M-8.5% of revenue
Net debt ÷ EBITDA5.7×net debt 3.3B
Piotroski F-score5/8tests of improvement passed
Is it growing?
Revenue and the operating income it turns into. Growth that does not reach operating income is growth bought with margin.
RevenueOperating income
0500.0M1.0B1.5B2.0B
2020
2021Revenue 1.4BOperating income 275.7M
2022Revenue 1.5BOperating income 263.1M
2023Revenue 1.4BOperating income 300.5M
2024Revenue 1.5BOperating income 323.3M
2025Revenue 1.6BOperating income 325.8M
202020212022202320242025
Compound growth a year
3 yrs
5 yrs
Revenue
+2.9%
—
Operating income
+7.4%
—
Net income
-0.4%
—
Earnings per share
-3.3%
—
Dividend per share
+1.8%
—
Shares
+3.0%
—
Falling shares are buybacks: each remaining share owns more of the company.
Does it earn more than its capital costs?
Margins say how much of each sale is kept; return on invested capital says how much the business earns on the money it needs to operate. Growth only creates value when that return is above the cost of the capital.
GrossOperatingNetFree cash flow
-20.0%-10.0%0.0%10.0%20.0%30.0%
2020
2021Operating 20.1%Net 13.6%Free cash flow -15.6%
2022Operating 17.8%Net 12.4%Free cash flow -14.1%
2023Operating 21.1%Net 13.7%Free cash flow -5.5%
2024Operating 21.4%Net 14.8%Free cash flow -9.4%
2025Operating 20.2%Net 11.2%Free cash flow -8.1%
202020212022202320242025
Return on invested capital
Return on invested capital
0.0%2.0%4.0%6.0%
2020
2021
2022Return on invested capital 5.0%
2023Return on invested capital 5.2%
2024Return on invested capital 5.3%
2025Return on invested capital 5.1%
202020212022202320242025
Economic profit
Needs a cost of capital, which comes from the valuation below.
Return on equity
6.3%
Return on assets
2.1%
Asset turnover
0.19×
Overheads (SG&A)
9.8% of revenue
Is the profit cash, and where does the cash go?
Net income is an accounting opinion; free cash flow is what was left in the bank after investing. Stock-based pay does not leave the bank — shareholders pay it through dilution — so it is shown taken off as well.
Net incomeFree cash flowAfter stock-based pay
-400.0M-200.0M0200.0M400.0M
2020
2021Net income 186.8MFree cash flow -214.3MAfter stock-based pay -219.7M
2022Net income 183.0MFree cash flow -207.9MAfter stock-based pay -213.4M
2023Net income 194.1MFree cash flow -77.7MAfter stock-based pay -82.8M
2024Net income 224.1MFree cash flow -142.5MAfter stock-based pay -147.2M
2025Net income 181.1MFree cash flow -130.0MAfter stock-based pay -137.0M
202020212022202320242025
Where 6 years of operating cash went, 2020–2025
1.8B generated by the business. Each band is its share of that total.
Reinvested in the business 142%2.6B
Acquisitions 0%0
Dividends 41%742.6M
Share buybacks 0%0
More than it generated: funded with cash or new debt -83%-1.5B
Over the same years it paid 27.7M in stock.
Per share
Earnings per shareFree cash flow per shareDividend per share
$-6.00$-4.00$-2.00$0.00$2.00$4.00
2020
2021Earnings per share $3.60Free cash flow per share $-4.13Dividend per share $2.48
2022Earnings per share $3.25Free cash flow per share $-3.69Dividend per share $2.49
2023Earnings per share $3.22Free cash flow per share $-1.29Dividend per share $2.55
2024Earnings per share $3.65Free cash flow per share $-2.32Dividend per share $2.58
2025Earnings per share $2.94Free cash flow per share $-2.11Dividend per share $2.62
202020212022202320242025
Shares outstanding
Diluted shares
50.0M52.5M55.0M57.5M60.0M62.5M
2020
2021Diluted shares 51.9M
2022Diluted shares 56.3M
2023Diluted shares 60.4M
2024Diluted shares 61.4M
2025Diluted shares 61.5M
202020212022202320242025
How strong is the balance sheet?
Debt is not bad in itself; debt the business cannot service in a bad year is. Net debt is debt minus cash, and below zero the company holds more cash than it owes.
Net debt
01.0B2.0B3.0B4.0B
2020
2021
2022Net debt 2.6B
2023Net debt 2.8B
2024Net debt 3.0B
2025Net debt 3.3B
202020212022202320242025
Net debt ÷ EBITDA
5.7×
Interest coverage
— operating income ÷ interest
Current ratio
0.72 current assets ÷ current liabilities
Cash conversion cycle
— collects in 48d
Three classic screens of the accounts
Each asks a different question of the same statements — is it improving, does it look like a company heading for distress, do the accounts resemble ones that were manipulated. None is a verdict; each shows what moves it.
Piotroski F-score
Is the business improving? Nine yes-or-no tests, this year against last.
5of 8 tests passed
✓ProfitableReturn on assets above zeropassed
✓Cash from operationsOperating cash flow above zeropassed
✕Profitability improvedReturn on assets higher than a year beforefailed
✓Profit backed by cashOperating cash flow above net income (low accruals)passed
✕Less long-term debtLong-term debt as a share of assets fellfailed
✓More liquidCurrent ratio higher than a year beforepassed
✕No new sharesShare count did not growfailed
–Better gross marginGross margin higher than a year before — not reportedno data
✓Sells more per assetAsset turnover higher than a year beforepassed
Where it misleads: it measures change, not level. An excellent business that stood still for a year scores low; a poor one recovering from a disaster scores high.
Altman Z''-score
Does the balance sheet look like those of companies that went bankrupt?
1.00distress zone
1.12.6
Working capital ÷ assets -0.02 × 6.56-0.15
Retained earnings ÷ assets 0.11 × 3.26+0.35
Operating income ÷ assets 0.04 × 6.72+0.26
Equity ÷ liabilities 0.52 × 1.05+0.54
Where it misleads: buybacks. A company that returns so much cash that its equity turns small or negative sinks the last two ratios without being anywhere near bankruptcy. Banks and insurers do not fit the model at all.
Beneish M-score
Do the accounts resemble those of companies that manipulated their earnings?
-2.54below the -1.78 line
-1.78
Receivables vs sales 1.05+0.97
Gross margin slipping 1.00 (not reported, set to 1)+0.53
Soft assets 0.97+0.39
Sales growth 1.06+0.95
Slower depreciation 0.96+0.11
Overheads vs sales 1.08-0.19
Profit not in cash -0.03-0.12
Leverage rising 1.05-0.34
Where it misleads: fast growth and acquisitions. Sales growth carries a heavy weight, so a company growing 50% a year scores like a suspect without having done anything. It is a screen from a 1999 study, not an accusation.
Where the statements disagree
Cross-checks between the income statement, the balance sheet and the cash flow for the latest year, each with the benign reading and the worrying one.
The effective tax rate is 3.5%.
Benign
A favourable geographic mix, or legitimate tax credits.
Worrying
Not sustainable; projecting it forward inflates the valuation.
Net debt is 5.7 times EBITDA.
Benign
A stable sector with predictable cash flows and comfortable maturities.
Worrying
Little room if earnings fall; the maturity schedule is what to check.
What is it worth, under which assumptions?
A company is worth the cash it will generate, brought back to today. This model projects revenue with growth that fades over the years, applies a free cash flow margin, and discounts the result at the cost of capital. Every assumption says where it came from, and all of them can be changed.
With a free cash flow margin at or below zero in year ten, the business never generates cash for its owners and a DCF says nothing useful. Set a positive margin for year ten to see what it would take.
What it has filed lately
The last twelve months at the SEC, most important first: annual and quarterly reports, events, large holders and insiders.
Every Form 4 filed in the last twelve months, read line by line: 6 filings by 6 people. Open-market purchases and sales are counted apart from awards, option exercises and shares withheld for taxes.
Bought on the open market—none in the period
Sold on the open market—none in the period
Under pre-arranged plans—of the sales followed a 10b5-1 plan set months earlier
A Form 4 says what happened, when, how many shares and at what price. It does not say why: a sale can be diversification, a tax bill or a plan fixed months earlier, and an award is pay, not a purchase. Nothing here is a reason to buy or sell anything.
Which large funds report holding it
From the Form 13F of the 28 institutions followed on this site, as of the end of their last reported quarter. A 13F is filed up to 45 days later and shows only long positions in US-listed shares.
Accounts from the company's own SEC filings; lines some companies do not report are shown as a dash rather than estimated. The risk-free rate is the 10-year US Treasury yield. A DCF is a way of making assumptions explicit, not a forecast: it states what the company would be worth if the assumptions held. The scores are screens that point where to look, not verdicts. Nothing here is a recommendation to buy or sell.
