NI · Utilities(electric & other services combined) · 10 years of annual accounts filed with the SEC · latest fiscal year ended 2025-12-31
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Nisource Inc. reported revenue of $6.5 billion in fiscal 2025, after growing 4.5% a year over the previous 9 years. Its operating margin widened from 19.7% in 2016 to 28.1%. Of the $13.5 billion its operations generated over 10 years, 153.1% went back into the business and 25.8% to dividends; the share count rose 46.7%. On the accounting screens, it passes 7 of 8 Piotroski tests, its Altman Z'' of 0.49 is in the distress zone and its Beneish M-score is below the -1.78 line; none of the six cross-checks between its statements fires.
Revenue, fiscal 20256.5B+4.5% a year over 9 years
Operating margin28.1%gross margin —
Return on invested capital—
Free cash flow after stock pay-470.9M-7.2% of revenue
Net debt ÷ EBITDANet cash90.4M more cash than debt
Piotroski F-score7/8tests of improvement passed
Is it growing?
Revenue and the operating income it turns into. Growth that does not reach operating income is growth bought with margin.
RevenueOperating income
02.0B4.0B6.0B8.0B
2016Revenue 4.4BOperating income 866.1M
2017Revenue 4.7BOperating income 921.2M
2018Revenue 5.0BOperating income 124.7M
2019Revenue 5.1BOperating income 890.7M
2020Revenue 4.5BOperating income 550.8M
2021Revenue 4.7BOperating income 1.0B
2022Revenue 5.7BOperating income 1.3B
2023Revenue 5.3BOperating income 1.3B
2024Revenue 5.3BOperating income 1.5B
2025Revenue 6.5BOperating income 1.8B
2016201720182019202020212022202320242025
Compound growth a year
3 yrs
5 yrs
9 yrs
Revenue
+4.4%
+7.8%
+4.5%
Operating income
+13.2%
+27.2%
+8.7%
Net income
+4.9%
—
+12.1%
Earnings per share
+2.6%
—
+7.5%
Dividend per share
+9.1%
+6.0%
+6.5%
Shares
+2.3%
+4.3%
+4.3%
Falling shares are buybacks: each remaining share owns more of the company.
Does it earn more than its capital costs?
Margins say how much of each sale is kept; return on invested capital says how much the business earns on the money it needs to operate. Growth only creates value when that return is above the cost of the capital.
Needs a cost of capital, which comes from the valuation below.
Return on equity
9.8%
Return on assets
2.6%
Asset turnover
0.18×
Is the profit cash, and where does the cash go?
Net income is an accounting opinion; free cash flow is what was left in the bank after investing. Stock-based pay does not leave the bank — shareholders pay it through dilution — so it is shown taken off as well.
Net incomeFree cash flowAfter stock-based pay
-2.0B-1.0B01.0B
2016Net income 331.5MFree cash flow -671.9MAfter stock-based pay -718.4M
2017Net income 128.5MFree cash flow -953.6MAfter stock-based pay -993.7M
2018Net income -50.6MFree cash flow -1.3BAfter stock-based pay -1.3B
2019Net income 383.1MFree cash flow -219.1MAfter stock-based pay -245.0M
2020Net income -17.6MFree cash flow -654.1MAfter stock-based pay -671.5M
2021Net income 584.9MFree cash flow -620.1MAfter stock-based pay -644.4M
2022Net income 804.1MFree cash flow -793.7MAfter stock-based pay -818.6M
2023Net income 714.3MFree cash flow -710.7MAfter stock-based pay -744.2M
2024Net income 760.4MFree cash flow -832.5MAfter stock-based pay -876.1M
2025Net income 929.5MFree cash flow -420.0MAfter stock-based pay -470.9M
2016201720182019202020212022202320242025
Where 10 years of operating cash went, 2016–2025
13.5B generated by the business. Each band is its share of that total.
Reinvested in the business 153%20.6B
Acquisitions 0%0
Dividends 26%3.5B
Share buybacks 0%20.6M
More than it generated: funded with cash or new debt -79%-10.7B
Over the same years it paid 335.7M in stock. The share count rose 46.7%. The buybacks did not even cover what was handed out in stock.
Per share
Earnings per shareFree cash flow per shareDividend per share
$-4.00$-2.00$0.00$2.00
2016Earnings per share $1.02Free cash flow per share $-2.08Dividend per share $0.64
2017Earnings per share $0.39Free cash flow per share $-2.88Dividend per share $0.69
2018Earnings per share $-0.14Free cash flow per share $-3.59Dividend per share $0.77
2019Earnings per share $1.02Free cash flow per share $-0.58Dividend per share $0.79
2020Earnings per share $-0.05Free cash flow per share $-1.70Dividend per share $0.84
2021Earnings per share $1.40Free cash flow per share $-1.49Dividend per share $0.83
2022Earnings per share $1.82Free cash flow per share $-1.79Dividend per share $0.86
2023Earnings per share $1.59Free cash flow per share $-1.59Dividend per share $0.92
2024Earnings per share $1.67Free cash flow per share $-1.83Dividend per share $1.05
2025Earnings per share $1.96Free cash flow per share $-0.89Dividend per share $1.12
2016201720182019202020212022202320242025
Shares outstanding
Diluted shares
300.0M350.0M400.0M450.0M500.0M
2016Diluted shares 323.5M
2017Diluted shares 330.8M
2018Diluted shares 356.5M
2019Diluted shares 376.0M
2020Diluted shares 384.3M
2021Diluted shares 417.3M
2022Diluted shares 442.7M
2023Diluted shares 447.9M
2024Diluted shares 456.0M
2025Diluted shares 474.5M
2016201720182019202020212022202320242025
How strong is the balance sheet?
Debt is not bad in itself; debt the business cannot service in a bad year is. Net debt is debt minus cash, and below zero the company holds more cash than it owes.
Net debt
-4.0B-2.0B02.0B
2016Net debt 1.5B
2017Net debt 1.2B
2018Net debt 1.9B
2019Net debt 1.6B
2020Net debt 386.5M
2021Net debt 475.8M
2022Net debt 1.7B
2023Net debt -2.2B
2024Net debt 1.1B
2025Net debt -90.4M
2016201720182019202020212022202320242025
Net debt ÷ EBITDA
-0.0×
Interest coverage
3× operating income ÷ interest
Current ratio
0.69 current assets ÷ current liabilities
Cash conversion cycle
— collects in 67d
Three classic screens of the accounts
Each asks a different question of the same statements — is it improving, does it look like a company heading for distress, do the accounts resemble ones that were manipulated. None is a verdict; each shows what moves it.
Piotroski F-score
Is the business improving? Nine yes-or-no tests, this year against last.
7of 8 tests passed
✓ProfitableReturn on assets above zeropassed
✓Cash from operationsOperating cash flow above zeropassed
✓Profitability improvedReturn on assets higher than a year beforepassed
✓Profit backed by cashOperating cash flow above net income (low accruals)passed
✓Less long-term debtLong-term debt as a share of assets fellpassed
✓More liquidCurrent ratio higher than a year beforepassed
✕No new sharesShare count did not growfailed
–Better gross marginGross margin higher than a year before — not reportedno data
✓Sells more per assetAsset turnover higher than a year beforepassed
Where it misleads: it measures change, not level. An excellent business that stood still for a year scores low; a poor one recovering from a disaster scores high.
Altman Z''-score
Does the balance sheet look like those of companies that went bankrupt?
0.49distress zone
1.12.6
Working capital ÷ assets -0.03 × 6.56-0.20
Retained earnings ÷ assets -0.01 × 3.26-0.03
Operating income ÷ assets 0.05 × 6.72+0.34
Equity ÷ liabilities 0.36 × 1.05+0.38
Where it misleads: buybacks. A company that returns so much cash that its equity turns small or negative sinks the last two ratios without being anywhere near bankruptcy. Banks and insurers do not fit the model at all.
Beneish M-score
Do the accounts resemble those of companies that manipulated their earnings?
-2.37below the -1.78 line
-1.78
Receivables vs sales 1.01+0.93
Gross margin slipping 1.00 (not reported, set to 1)+0.53
Soft assets 1.00+0.40
Sales growth 1.23+1.10
Slower depreciation 1.01+0.12
Overheads vs sales 1.00 (not reported, set to 1)-0.17
Profit not in cash -0.04-0.19
Leverage rising 0.75-0.24
Where it misleads: fast growth and acquisitions. Sales growth carries a heavy weight, so a company growing 50% a year scores like a suspect without having done anything. It is a screen from a 1999 study, not an accusation.
Where the statements disagree
Cross-checks between the income statement, the balance sheet and the cash flow for the latest year, each with the benign reading and the worrying one.
None of the six cross-checks fires for the latest year: receivables and inventory move with revenue, profit turns into cash, investment keeps up with depreciation, the tax rate is ordinary and debt is moderate.
What is it worth, under which assumptions?
A company is worth the cash it will generate, brought back to today. This model projects revenue with growth that fades over the years, applies a free cash flow margin, and discounts the result at the cost of capital. Every assumption says where it came from, and all of them can be changed.
The SEC accounts lack the lines needed for revenue, free cash flow or the share count, so there is no DCF for this company.
What it has filed lately
The last twelve months at the SEC, most important first: annual and quarterly reports, events, large holders and insiders.
Every Form 4 filed in the last twelve months, read line by line: 6 filings by 5 people. Open-market purchases and sales are counted apart from awards, option exercises and shares withheld for taxes.
Bought on the open market—none in the period
Sold on the open market$3.8M5 sale(s) by 3 insider(s)
Under pre-arranged plans0%of the sales followed a 10b5-1 plan set months earlier
A Form 4 says what happened, when, how many shares and at what price. It does not say why: a sale can be diversification, a tax bill or a plan fixed months earlier, and an award is pay, not a purchase. Nothing here is a reason to buy or sell anything.
Which large funds report holding it
From the Form 13F of the 28 institutions followed on this site, as of the end of their last reported quarter. A 13F is filed up to 45 days later and shows only long positions in US-listed shares.
Accounts from the company's own SEC filings; lines some companies do not report are shown as a dash rather than estimated. The risk-free rate is the 10-year US Treasury yield. A DCF is a way of making assumptions explicit, not a forecast: it states what the company would be worth if the assumptions held. The scores are screens that point where to look, not verdicts. Nothing here is a recommendation to buy or sell.
