KBR · Industrials(heavy construction other than bldg const - contractors) · 10 years of annual accounts filed with the SEC · latest fiscal year ended 2026-01-02
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KBR, Inc. reported revenue of $7.8 billion in fiscal 2026. Of the $2.8 billion its operations generated over 10 years, 85.7% went to acquisitions and 36.6% to buybacks. On the accounting screens, it passes 8 of 9 Piotroski tests and its Altman Z'' of 2.31 is in the grey zone; 1 of the six cross-checks between its statements fires.
Revenue, fiscal 20267.8B
Operating margin10.0%gross margin 14.8%
Return on invested capital14.2%11.4% on average over 5 years
Free cash flow515.0M6.6% of revenue
Net debt ÷ EBITDA2.2×net debt 2.1B
Piotroski F-score8/9tests of improvement passed
Is it growing?
Revenue and the operating income it turns into. Growth that does not reach operating income is growth bought with margin.
RevenueOperating income
02.0B4.0B6.0B8.0B
2018
2018Revenue 4.9BOperating income 468.0M
2019
2019Revenue 5.6BOperating income 362.0M
2020Revenue 5.8BOperating income 57.0M
2021Revenue 7.3BOperating income 231.0M
2022Revenue 6.6BOperating income 343.0M
2023Revenue 7.0BOperating income 449.0M
2025Revenue 7.7BOperating income 659.0M
2026Revenue 7.8BOperating income 778.0M
2018201820192019202020212022202320252026
Compound growth a year
3 yrs
5 yrs
9 yrs
Revenue
+5.9%
+6.2%
—
Operating income
+31.4%
+68.7%
—
Net income
+29.7%
—
—
Earnings per share
+38.2%
—
—
Free cash flow per share
+24.2%
+10.3%
—
Dividend per share
+15.5%
+11.4%
—
Shares
-6.1%
-1.9%
—
Falling shares are buybacks: each remaining share owns more of the company.
Does it earn more than its capital costs?
Margins say how much of each sale is kept; return on invested capital says how much the business earns on the money it needs to operate. Growth only creates value when that return is above the cost of the capital.
Return on invested capitalCost of capital today · 6.6%
0.0%10.0%20.0%30.0%
2018
2018Return on invested capital 12.4%
2019
2019Return on invested capital 9.3%
2020Return on invested capital 5.4%
2021Return on invested capital 1.6%
2022Return on invested capital 6.9%
2023Return on invested capital 22.0%
2025Return on invested capital 12.2%
2026Return on invested capital 14.2%
2018201820192019202020212022202320252026
Economic profit
Economic profit
-200.0M0200.0M400.0M600.0M
2018
2018Economic profit 171.8M
2019
2019Economic profit 80.9M
2020Economic profit -38.8M
2021Economic profit -179.7M
2022Economic profit 10.0M
2023Economic profit 495.2M
2025Economic profit 226.0M
2026Economic profit 309.6M
2018201820192019202020212022202320252026
(return on capital − cost of capital) × capital invested: the profit left after paying for the money used. Today's cost of capital is applied to every year, since a past one cannot be rebuilt honestly.
Return on equity
27.6%
Return on assets
6.3%
Asset turnover
1.18×
Overheads (SG&A)
7.4% of revenue
Is the profit cash, and where does the cash go?
Net income is an accounting opinion; free cash flow is what was left in the bank after investing. Stock-based pay does not leave the bank — shareholders pay it through dilution — so it is shown taken off as well.
Net incomeFree cash flowAfter stock-based pay
-400.0M-200.0M0200.0M400.0M600.0M
2018
2018Net income 281.0MFree cash flow 148.0MAfter stock-based pay 138.0M
2019
2019Net income 202.0MFree cash flow 236.0MAfter stock-based pay 224.0M
2020Net income -63.0MFree cash flow 347.0MAfter stock-based pay 335.0M
2021Net income 27.0MFree cash flow 248.0MAfter stock-based pay 236.0M
2022Net income 190.0MFree cash flow 325.0M
2023Net income -265.0MFree cash flow 269.0M
2025Net income 375.0MFree cash flow 410.0M
2026Net income 415.0MFree cash flow 515.0M
2018201820192019202020212022202320252026
Where 10 years of operating cash went, 2018–2026
2.8B generated by the business. Each band is its share of that total.
Reinvested in the business 11%314.0M
Acquisitions 86%2.4B
Dividends 18%506.0M
Share buybacks 37%1.0B
More than it generated: funded with cash or new debt -51%-1.4B
Over the same years it paid 46.0M in stock. 982.0M of the buybacks went beyond offsetting that dilution.
Per share
Earnings per shareFree cash flow per shareDividend per share
$-2.00$0.00$2.00$4.00
2018
2018Earnings per share $1.99Free cash flow per share $1.05Dividend per share $0.31
2019
2019Earnings per share $1.42Free cash flow per share $1.66Dividend per share $0.32
2020Earnings per share $-0.44Free cash flow per share $2.44Dividend per share $0.38
2021Earnings per share $0.19Free cash flow per share $1.76Dividend per share $0.43
2022Earnings per share $1.22Free cash flow per share $2.08Dividend per share $0.42
2023Earnings per share $-1.96Free cash flow per share $1.99Dividend per share $0.53
2025Earnings per share $2.80Free cash flow per share $3.06Dividend per share $0.59
2026Earnings per share $3.22Free cash flow per share $3.99Dividend per share $0.65
2018201820192019202020212022202320252026
Shares outstanding
Diluted shares
120.0M130.0M140.0M150.0M160.0M
2018
2018Diluted shares 141.0M
2019
2019Diluted shares 142.0M
2020Diluted shares 142.0M
2021Diluted shares 141.0M
2022Diluted shares 156.0M
2023Diluted shares 135.0M
2025Diluted shares 134.0M
2026Diluted shares 129.0M
2018201820192019202020212022202320252026
How strong is the balance sheet?
Debt is not bad in itself; debt the business cannot service in a bad year is. Net debt is debt minus cash, and below zero the company holds more cash than it owes.
Net debt
01.0B2.0B3.0B
2018
2018Net debt 509.0M
2019
2019Net debt 498.0M
2020Net debt 1.2B
2021Net debt 1.5B
2022Net debt 1.4B
2023Net debt 1.5B
2025Net debt 2.2B
2026Net debt 2.1B
2018201820192019202020212022202320252026
Net debt ÷ EBITDA
2.2×
Interest coverage
5× operating income ÷ interest
Current ratio
1.22 current assets ÷ current liabilities
Cash conversion cycle
—
Three classic screens of the accounts
Each asks a different question of the same statements — is it improving, does it look like a company heading for distress, do the accounts resemble ones that were manipulated. None is a verdict; each shows what moves it.
Piotroski F-score
Is the business improving? Nine yes-or-no tests, this year against last.
8of 9 tests passed
✓ProfitableReturn on assets above zeropassed
✓Cash from operationsOperating cash flow above zeropassed
✓Profitability improvedReturn on assets higher than a year beforepassed
✓Profit backed by cashOperating cash flow above net income (low accruals)passed
✕Less long-term debtLong-term debt as a share of assets fellfailed
✓More liquidCurrent ratio higher than a year beforepassed
✓No new sharesShare count did not growpassed
✓Better gross marginGross margin higher than a year beforepassed
✓Sells more per assetAsset turnover higher than a year beforepassed
Where it misleads: it measures change, not level. An excellent business that stood still for a year scores low; a poor one recovering from a disaster scores high.
Altman Z''-score
Does the balance sheet look like those of companies that went bankrupt?
2.31grey zone
1.12.6
Working capital ÷ assets 0.06 × 6.56+0.36
Retained earnings ÷ assets 0.26 × 3.26+0.84
Operating income ÷ assets 0.12 × 6.72+0.79
Equity ÷ liabilities 0.30 × 1.05+0.31
Where it misleads: buybacks. A company that returns so much cash that its equity turns small or negative sinks the last two ratios without being anywhere near bankruptcy. Banks and insurers do not fit the model at all.
Beneish M-score
Do the accounts resemble those of companies that manipulated their earnings?
The accounts lack too many of the lines it needs.
Where the statements disagree
Cross-checks between the income statement, the balance sheet and the cash flow for the latest year, each with the benign reading and the worrying one.
Capital spending (42M) is well below depreciation (169M).
Benign
Mature assets, or a business that has become less capital-intensive.
Worrying
Under-investing: today's profit is being held up by consuming tomorrow's capacity.
What is it worth, under which assumptions?
A company is worth the cash it will generate, brought back to today. This model projects revenue with growth that fades over the years, applies a free cash flow margin, and discounts the result at the cost of capital. Every assumption says where it came from, and all of them can be changed.
Value per share, with these assumptions$147.23discounted at 6.6% a year · 69% of it from after year 10
Type a share price on the left to ask the reverse questions: what growth, what margin or what discount rate that price implies.
What the value implies, in the usual multiples
At this model's value
Price ÷ earnings
45.8×
Enterprise value ÷ EBITDA
22.3×
Enterprise value ÷ revenue
2.7×
Free cash flow yield
2.7%
From cash flows to a value per share
10 years of cash flow, today6.6B
Everything after, today14.5B
The whole business21.1B
Minus net debt-2.1B
What belongs to shareholders19.0B
Divided among 129.0M shares: <strong>$147.23</strong> each.
The projection next to its history
Reported free cash flow after stock pay, then the model's. A projection that looks nothing like the past needs a reason.
ReportedProjected
0500.0M1.0B1.5B
2018
2018Reported 138.0M
2019
2019Reported 224.0M
2020Reported 335.0M
2021Reported 236.0M
2022
2023
2025
2026
2027Projected 768.1M
2028Projected 811.2M
2029Projected 853.5M
2030Projected 894.8M
2031Projected 934.6M
2032Projected 972.5M
2033Projected 1.0B
2034Projected 1.0B
2035Projected 1.1B
2036Projected 1.1B
2018201920202022202520272029203120332035
Year by year
2027
2028
2029
2030
2031
2032
2033
2034
2035
2036
Revenue
8.3B
8.7B
9.2B
9.6B
10.0B
10.4B
10.8B
11.2B
11.5B
11.8B
Growth
6.0%
5.6%
5.2%
4.8%
4.4%
4.1%
3.7%
3.3%
2.9%
2.5%
Cash margin
9.3%
9.3%
9.3%
9.3%
9.3%
9.3%
9.3%
9.3%
9.3%
9.3%
Free cash flow
768.1M
811.2M
853.5M
894.8M
934.6M
972.5M
1.0B
1.0B
1.1B
1.1B
Worth today
720.5M
713.8M
704.5M
692.8M
678.8M
662.6M
644.3M
624.2M
602.4M
579.2M
If the least-known inputs move
Value per share as two inputs change at a time. Neighbouring cells that differ a lot are the conclusion: the value depends on numbers nobody knows to a point.
The discount rate and growth forever
discount ↓ · forever →
1.5%
2.0%
2.5%
3.0%
3.5%
5.6%
153
174
201
239
294
6.1%
135
150
170
197
234
6.6%
119
132
147
167
193
7.1%
107
117
129
145
164
7.6%
97
105
115
127
142
Year-one growth and the final margin
margin ↓ · growth →
2.0%
4.0%
6.0%
8.0%
10.0%
7.4%
98
108
119
131
145
8.4%
109
121
133
147
161
9.3%
121
134
147
162
178
10.2%
133
146
161
177
195
11.2%
144
159
175
193
211
All the inputs moving at once
4,978 valuations, each with growth, final margin, discount rate and growth forever drawn at random around the values on the left (spreads of 3.0%, 2.0%, 1.0% and 0.5%). Not a probability — the spreads are assumptions too — but an honest picture of how wide the answer is.
10th percentile$91.29
Median$146.44
90th percentile$252.67
$100.00$200.00$300.00$400.00
Half of the simulations land between <b>$114.83</b> and <b>$192.92</b>; one in ten below $91.29, one in ten above $252.67.
Does the long run make sense?
19.1×The terminal value prices the business in year 10 at 19.1 times that year's EBITDA.
Free growthIn year 10 free cash flow is at or above after-tax operating profit, yet the model grows 2.5% forever. Growth needs reinvestment; this assumes it comes for free, which flatters the terminal value.
69%of the value comes from after year 10. The more of it, the more the answer depends on the part nobody can see.
Every Form 4 filed in the last twelve months, read line by line: 6 filings by 6 people. Open-market purchases and sales are counted apart from awards, option exercises and shares withheld for taxes.
Bought on the open market$596,5812 purchase(s) by 2 insider(s)
Sold on the open market—none in the period
Under pre-arranged plans—of the sales followed a 10b5-1 plan set months earlier
A Form 4 says what happened, when, how many shares and at what price. It does not say why: a sale can be diversification, a tax bill or a plan fixed months earlier, and an award is pay, not a purchase. Nothing here is a reason to buy or sell anything.
Which large funds report holding it
From the Form 13F of the 28 institutions followed on this site, as of the end of their last reported quarter. A 13F is filed up to 45 days later and shows only long positions in US-listed shares.
Accounts from the company's own SEC filings; lines some companies do not report are shown as a dash rather than estimated. The risk-free rate is the 10-year US Treasury yield. A DCF is a way of making assumptions explicit, not a forecast: it states what the company would be worth if the assumptions held. The scores are screens that point where to look, not verdicts. Nothing here is a recommendation to buy or sell.