JEF · Financials(security brokers, dealers & flotation companies) · 10 years of annual accounts filed with the SEC · latest fiscal year ended 2025-11-30
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Jefferies Financial Group Inc. reported revenue of $5.5 billion in fiscal 2025, after shrinking 7.2% a year over the previous 9 years. Its operating margin widened from 3.9% in 2016 to 15.7%, and it earned 2.4% on its invested capital in the latest year. Of the $2.4 billion its operations generated over 10 years, 119.7% went to buybacks and 81.0% to dividends; the share count fell 40.0%. On the accounting screens, it passes 4 of 8 Piotroski tests; 2 of the six cross-checks between its statements fire.
Revenue, fiscal 20255.5B-7.2% a year over 9 years
Operating margin15.7%gross margin 96.6%
Return on invested capital2.4%7.4% on average over 5 years
Free cash flow after stock pay-1.8B-32.3% of revenue
Net debt ÷ EBITDA3.4×net debt 3.6B
Piotroski F-score4/8tests of improvement passed
Is it growing?
Revenue and the operating income it turns into. Growth that does not reach operating income is growth bought with margin.
RevenueOperating income
05B10B15B
2016Revenue 10.9BOperating income 425.1M
2017Revenue 5.0BOperating income 707.7M
2018
2019Revenue 2.8BOperating income 565.8M
2020Revenue 3.9BOperating income 2.1B
2021Revenue 6.1BOperating income 3.2B
2022Revenue 4.7BOperating income 2.2B
2023Revenue 3.2BOperating income 3.1B
2024Revenue 4.9BOperating income 1.0B
2025Revenue 5.5BOperating income 871.0M
2016201720182019202020212022202320242025
Compound growth a year
3 yrs
5 yrs
9 yrs
Revenue
+5.4%
+7.2%
-7.2%
Operating income
-26.9%
-16.1%
+8.3%
Net income
-4.4%
-2.4%
+20.6%
Earnings per share
+0.0%
+2.9%
+27.7%
Dividend per share
+15.3%
+24.8%
+23.8%
Shares
-4.5%
-5.2%
-5.5%
Falling shares are buybacks: each remaining share owns more of the company.
Does it earn more than its capital costs?
Margins say how much of each sale is kept; return on invested capital says how much the business earns on the money it needs to operate. Growth only creates value when that return is above the cost of the capital.
Return on invested capitalCost of capital today · 7.2%
-5%0%5%10%15%
2016Return on invested capital 1.4%
2017Return on invested capital -0.2%
2018
2019Return on invested capital -0.0%
2020Return on invested capital 8.2%
2021Return on invested capital 11.9%
2022Return on invested capital 8.4%
2023Return on invested capital 11.2%
2024Return on invested capital 3.0%
2025Return on invested capital 2.4%
2016201720182019202020212022202320242025
Economic profit
Economic profit
-2B-1B01B
2016Economic profit -1.0B
2017Economic profit -1.4B
2018
2019Economic profit -1.3B
2020Economic profit 184.5M
2021Economic profit 946.2M
2022Economic profit 250.3M
2023Economic profit 832.5M
2024Economic profit -1.0B
2025Economic profit -1.3B
2016201720182019202020212022202320242025
(return on capital − cost of capital) × capital invested: the profit left after paying for the money used. Today's cost of capital is applied to every year, since a past one cannot be rebuilt honestly.
Return on equity
6.4%
Return on assets
0.9%
Asset turnover
0.07×
Is the profit cash, and where does the cash go?
Net income is an accounting opinion; free cash flow is what was left in the bank after investing. Stock-based pay does not leave the bank — shareholders pay it through dilution — so it is shown taken off as well.
Net incomeFree cash flowAfter stock-based pay
-2B-1B01B2B
2016Net income 125.9M
2017Net income 167.4M
2018
2019Net income 959.6M
2020Net income 769.6MFree cash flow 1.9BAfter stock-based pay 1.8B
2021Net income 1.7BFree cash flow 1.4BAfter stock-based pay 1.3B
2022Net income 781.7MFree cash flow 1.6BAfter stock-based pay 1.5B
2023Net income 262.4MFree cash flow -1.9BAfter stock-based pay -2.0B
2024Net income 716.0MFree cash flow -391.1MAfter stock-based pay -454.2M
2025Net income 682.0MFree cash flow -1.7BAfter stock-based pay -1.8B
2016201720182019202020212022202320242025
Where 10 years of operating cash went, 2016–2025
2.4B generated by the business. Each band is its share of that total.
Reinvested in the business 42%1.0B
Acquisitions 5%110.4M
Dividends 81%2.0B
Share buybacks 120%2.9B
More than it generated: funded with cash or new debt -147%-3.6B
Over the same years it paid 490.7M in stock. The share count fell 40.0%. 2.4B of the buybacks went beyond offsetting that dilution.
Per share
Earnings per shareFree cash flow per shareDividend per share
-$10-$5$0$5$10
2016Earnings per share $0.34Dividend per share $0.25
2017Earnings per share $0.45Dividend per share $0.32
2018
2019Earnings per share $3.03Dividend per share $0.47
2020Earnings per share $2.65Free cash flow per share $6.47Dividend per share $0.55
2021Earnings per share $6.14Free cash flow per share $5.22Dividend per share $0.82
2022Earnings per share $3.06Free cash flow per share $6.18Dividend per share $1.10
2023Earnings per share $1.11Free cash flow per share $-8.18Dividend per share $1.18
2024Earnings per share $3.20Free cash flow per share $-1.75Dividend per share $1.35
2025Earnings per share $3.06Free cash flow per share $-7.64Dividend per share $1.68
2016201720182019202020212022202320242025
Shares outstanding
Diluted shares
200M250M300M350M400M
2016Diluted shares 371.5M
2017Diluted shares 370.7M
2018Diluted shares 307.5M
2019Diluted shares 317.0M
2020Diluted shares 290.5M
2021Diluted shares 271.5M
2022Diluted shares 255.6M
2023Diluted shares 236.6M
2024Diluted shares 223.7M
2025Diluted shares 222.7M
2016201720182019202020212022202320242025
Debt and liquidity
Debt is not bad in itself; debt the business cannot service in a bad year is. Net debt is debt minus cash, and below zero the company holds more cash than it owes.
Net debt
-2B02B4B6B
2016Net debt 4.1B
2017Net debt 3.0B
2018Net debt 2.7B
2019Net debt 1.2B
2020Net debt 61.6M
2021Net debt -1.4B
2022Net debt -400.6M
2023Net debt 2.2B
2024Net debt 1.8B
2025Net debt 3.6B
2016201720182019202020212022202320242025
Net debt ÷ EBITDA
3.4×
Interest coverage
— operating income ÷ interest
Current ratio
— current assets ÷ current liabilities
Cash conversion cycle
—
Three classic screens of the accounts
Each asks a different question of the same statements — is it improving, does it look like a company heading for distress, do the accounts resemble ones that were manipulated. None is a verdict; each shows what moves it.
Piotroski F-score
Is the business improving? Nine yes-or-no tests, this year against last.
4of 8 tests passed
✓ProfitableReturn on assets above zeropassed
✕Cash from operationsOperating cash flow above zerofailed
✕Profitability improvedReturn on assets higher than a year beforefailed
✕Profit backed by cashOperating cash flow above net income (low accruals)failed
✓Less long-term debtLong-term debt as a share of assets fellpassed
–More liquidCurrent ratio higher than a year before — not reportedno data
✓No new sharesShare count did not growpassed
✓Better gross marginGross margin higher than a year beforepassed
✕Sells more per assetAsset turnover higher than a year beforefailed
Where it misleads: it measures change, not level. An excellent business that stood still for a year scores low; a poor one recovering from a disaster scores high.
Altman Z''-score
Does the balance sheet look like those of companies that went bankrupt?
The accounts lack a line it needs (retained earnings, current assets or liabilities).
Beneish M-score
Do the accounts resemble those of companies that manipulated their earnings?
The accounts lack too many of the lines it needs.
Where the statements disagree
Cross-checks between the income statement, the balance sheet and the cash flow for the latest year, each with the benign reading and the worrying one.
Reported profit comfortably exceeds the cash generated (682M against -1,495M).
Benign
Growth consuming working capital, or the seasonality of the year-end.
Worrying
Profit held up by accounting entries that do not turn into money.
Net debt is 3.4 times EBITDA.
Benign
A stable sector with predictable cash flows and comfortable maturities.
Worrying
Little room if earnings fall; the maturity schedule is what to check.
What is it worth, under which assumptions?
A company is worth the cash it will generate, brought back to today. This model projects revenue with growth that fades over the years, applies a free cash flow margin, and discounts the result at the cost of capital. Every assumption says where it came from, and all of them can be changed.
Value per share, with these assumptions$155.97discounted at 7.2% a year · 66% of it from after year 10
Type a share price on the left to ask the reverse questions: what growth, what margin or what discount rate that price implies.
What the value implies, in the usual multiples
At this model's value
Price ÷ earnings
50.9×
Enterprise value ÷ EBITDA
36.1×
Enterprise value ÷ revenue
6.9×
Free cash flow yield
-5.2%
From cash flows to a value per share
10 years of cash flow, today13.2B
Everything after, today25.2B
The whole business38.4B
Minus net debt-3.6B
What belongs to shareholders34.7B
Divided among 222.7M shares: <strong>$155.97</strong> each.
The projection next to its history
Reported free cash flow after stock pay, then the model's. A projection that looks nothing like the past needs a reason.
ReportedProjected
-2B02B4B
2016
2017
2018
2019
2020Reported 1.8B
2021Reported 1.3B
2022Reported 1.5B
2023Reported -2.0B
2024Reported -454.2M
2025Reported -1.8B
2026Projected 1.5B
2027Projected 1.6B
2028Projected 1.7B
2029Projected 1.8B
2030Projected 1.9B
2031Projected 2.0B
2032Projected 2.1B
2033Projected 2.2B
2034Projected 2.2B
2035Projected 2.3B
2016201820202022202420262028203020322034
Year by year
2026
2027
2028
2029
2030
2031
2032
2033
2034
2035
Revenue
5.9B
6.3B
6.7B
7.1B
7.4B
7.8B
8.1B
8.3B
8.6B
8.8B
Growth
7.0%
6.5%
6.0%
5.5%
5.0%
4.5%
4.0%
3.5%
3.0%
2.5%
Cash margin
25.9%
25.9%
25.9%
25.9%
25.9%
25.9%
25.9%
25.9%
25.9%
25.9%
Free cash flow
1.5B
1.6B
1.7B
1.8B
1.9B
2.0B
2.1B
2.2B
2.2B
2.3B
Worth today
1.4B
1.4B
1.4B
1.4B
1.4B
1.3B
1.3B
1.2B
1.2B
1.1B
If the least-known inputs move
Value per share as two inputs change at a time. Neighbouring cells that differ a lot are the conclusion: the value depends on numbers nobody knows to a point.
The discount rate and growth forever
discount ↓ · forever →
1.5%
2.0%
2.5%
3.0%
3.5%
6.2%
162
180
204
235
277
6.7%
144
159
177
200
230
7.2%
130
142
156
174
196
7.7%
118
127
139
153
170
8.2%
107
115
125
136
150
Year-one growth and the final margin
margin ↓ · growth →
3.0%
5.0%
7.0%
9.0%
11.0%
20.7%
105
116
127
140
153
23.3%
117
129
142
155
170
25.9%
129
142
156
171
188
28.5%
141
155
170
187
205
31.1%
153
168
185
203
222
All the inputs moving at once
4,997 valuations, each with growth, final margin, discount rate and growth forever drawn at random around the values on the left (spreads of 3.0%, 3.9%, 1.0% and 0.5%). Not a probability — the spreads are assumptions too — but an honest picture of how wide the answer is.
10th percentile$105.92
Median$156.08
90th percentile$248.20
$100.00$200.00$300.00$400.00
Half of the simulations land between <b>$126.95</b> and <b>$196.54</b>; one in ten below $105.92, one in ten above $248.20.
Does the long run make sense?
29.7×The terminal value prices the business in year 10 at 29.7 times that year's EBITDA.
Free growthIn year 10 free cash flow is at or above after-tax operating profit, yet the model grows 2.5% forever. Growth needs reinvestment; this assumes it comes for free, which flatters the terminal value.
66%of the value comes from after year 10. The more of it, the more the answer depends on the part nobody can see.
Every Form 4 filed in the last twelve months, read line by line: 6 filings by 6 people. Open-market purchases and sales are counted apart from awards, option exercises and shares withheld for taxes.
Bought on the open market—none in the period
Sold on the open market—none in the period
Under pre-arranged plans—of the sales followed a 10b5-1 plan set months earlier
A Form 4 says what happened, when, how many shares and at what price. It does not say why: a sale can be diversification, a tax bill or a plan fixed months earlier, and an award is pay, not a purchase. Nothing here is a reason to buy or sell anything.
Which large funds report holding it
From the Form 13F of the 28 institutions followed on this site, as of the end of their last reported quarter. A 13F is filed up to 45 days later and shows only long positions in US-listed shares.
Accounts from the company's own SEC filings; lines some companies do not report are shown as a dash rather than estimated. The risk-free rate is the 10-year US Treasury yield. A DCF is a way of making assumptions explicit, not a forecast: it states what the company would be worth if the assumptions held. The scores are screens that point where to look, not verdicts. Nothing here is a recommendation to buy or sell.
