JBI · Industrials(metal doors, sash, frames, moldings & trim) · 9 years of annual accounts filed with the SEC · latest fiscal year ended 2026-01-03
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Janus International Group, Inc. reported revenue of $884.2 million in fiscal 2026. Of the $772.6 million its operations generated over 9 years, 31.7% went to acquisitions and 12.9% back into the business. On the accounting screens, it passes 6 of 9 Piotroski tests, its Altman Z'' of 3.81 is in the safe zone and its Beneish M-score is below the -1.78 line; 1 of the six cross-checks between its statements fires.
Revenue, fiscal 2026884.2M
Operating margin12.6%gross margin 38.8%
Return on invested capital7.0%11.3% on average over 4 years
Free cash flow after stock pay97.8M11.1% of revenue
Net debt ÷ EBITDA2.2×net debt 351.3M
Piotroski F-score6/9tests of improvement passed
Share counts are in today's shares. The SEC's filings restate only recent years after a split, so these jumps were read as splits and the older years scaled to match — otherwise per-share figures would compare different units:
2-for-1 before fiscal 2021.
Is it growing?
Revenue and the operating income it turns into. Growth that does not reach operating income is growth bought with margin.
RevenueOperating income
0500.0M1.0B1.5B
2019
2020Revenue 549.0MOperating income 94.5M
2021
2022Revenue 750.1MOperating income 92.3M
2022
2022Revenue 1.0BOperating income 187.5M
2023Revenue 1.1BOperating income 245.7M
2024Revenue 963.8MOperating income 146.6M
2026Revenue 884.2MOperating income 111.5M
201920202021202220222022202320242026
Compound growth a year
3 yrs
5 yrs
8 yrs
Revenue
-4.6%
+3.3%
—
Operating income
-15.9%
+3.9%
—
Net income
-20.7%
+4.2%
—
Earnings per share
-19.4%
-0.9%
—
Free cash flow per share
+14.5%
+10.1%
—
Shares
-1.6%
+5.1%
—
Falling shares are buybacks: each remaining share owns more of the company.
Does it earn more than its capital costs?
Margins say how much of each sale is kept; return on invested capital says how much the business earns on the money it needs to operate. Growth only creates value when that return is above the cost of the capital.
Return on invested capitalCost of capital today · 7.5%
0.0%5.0%10.0%15.0%20.0%
2019
2020Return on invested capital 11.9%
2021
2022Return on invested capital 8.2%
2022
2022Return on invested capital 12.8%
2023Return on invested capital 16.1%
2024Return on invested capital 9.3%
2026Return on invested capital 7.0%
201920202021202220222022202320242026
Economic profit
Economic profit
-50.0M050.0M100.0M
2019
2020Economic profit 33.6M
2021
2022Economic profit 6.6M
2022
2022Economic profit 57.5M
2023Economic profit 97.0M
2024Economic profit 19.3M
2026Economic profit -5.6M
201920202021202220222022202320242026
(return on capital − cost of capital) × capital invested: the profit left after paying for the money used. Today's cost of capital is applied to every year, since a past one cannot be rebuilt honestly.
Return on equity
9.4%
Return on assets
4.1%
Asset turnover
0.68×
Overheads (SG&A)
18.4% of revenue
Is the profit cash, and where does the cash go?
Net income is an accounting opinion; free cash flow is what was left in the bank after investing. Stock-based pay does not leave the bank — shareholders pay it through dilution — so it is shown taken off as well.
Net incomeFree cash flowAfter stock-based pay
050.0M100.0M150.0M200.0M
2019
2020Net income 56.8MFree cash flow 94.5MAfter stock-based pay 94.3M
2021
2022Net income 43.8MFree cash flow 54.9MAfter stock-based pay 49.6M
2022
2022Net income 107.7MFree cash flow 79.7MAfter stock-based pay 75.6M
2023Net income 135.7MFree cash flow 196.0MAfter stock-based pay 188.9M
2024Net income 70.4MFree cash flow 133.9MAfter stock-based pay 123.2M
2026Net income 53.8MFree cash flow 114.0MAfter stock-based pay 97.8M
201920202021202220222022202320242026
Where 9 years of operating cash went, 2019–2026
772.6M generated by the business. Each band is its share of that total.
Reinvested in the business 13%99.6M
Acquisitions 32%244.7M
Dividends 0%0
Share buybacks 12%94.7M
Kept, or used to pay down debt 43%333.6M
Over the same years it paid 43.6M in stock. 51.1M of the buybacks went beyond offsetting that dilution.
Per share
Earnings per shareFree cash flow per shareDividend per share
$0.00$0.50$1.00$1.50
2019
2020Earnings per share $0.86Free cash flow per share $1.44
2021
2022Earnings per share $0.40Free cash flow per share $0.50
2022
2022Earnings per share $0.73Free cash flow per share $0.54
2023Earnings per share $0.92Free cash flow per share $1.33
2024Earnings per share $0.49Free cash flow per share $0.92
2026Earnings per share $0.38Free cash flow per share $0.82
201920202021202220222022202320242026
Shares outstanding
Diluted shares
50.0M75.0M100.0M125.0M150.0M
2019
2020Diluted shares 65.8M
2021Diluted shares 138.4M
2022Diluted shares 109.0M
2022
2022Diluted shares 146.7M
2023Diluted shares 146.9M
2024Diluted shares 144.8M
2026Diluted shares 139.7M
201920202021202220222022202320242026
How strong is the balance sheet?
Debt is not bad in itself; debt the business cannot service in a bad year is. Net debt is debt minus cash, and below zero the company holds more cash than it owes.
Net debt
0200.0M400.0M600.0M800.0M
2019
2020Net debt 578.9M
2021
2022Net debt 698.6M
2022
2022Net debt 629.8M
2023Net debt 443.3M
2024Net debt 442.7M
2026Net debt 351.3M
201920202021202220222022202320242026
Net debt ÷ EBITDA
2.2×
Interest coverage
3× operating income ÷ interest
Current ratio
3.54 current assets ÷ current liabilities
Cash conversion cycle
57 days collects in 45d, stock 40d, pays in 27d
Three classic screens of the accounts
Each asks a different question of the same statements — is it improving, does it look like a company heading for distress, do the accounts resemble ones that were manipulated. None is a verdict; each shows what moves it.
Piotroski F-score
Is the business improving? Nine yes-or-no tests, this year against last.
6of 9 tests passed
✓ProfitableReturn on assets above zeropassed
✓Cash from operationsOperating cash flow above zeropassed
✕Profitability improvedReturn on assets higher than a year beforefailed
✓Profit backed by cashOperating cash flow above net income (low accruals)passed
✓Less long-term debtLong-term debt as a share of assets fellpassed
✓More liquidCurrent ratio higher than a year beforepassed
✓No new sharesShare count did not growpassed
✕Better gross marginGross margin higher than a year beforefailed
✕Sells more per assetAsset turnover higher than a year beforefailed
Where it misleads: it measures change, not level. An excellent business that stood still for a year scores low; a poor one recovering from a disaster scores high.
Altman Z''-score
Does the balance sheet look like those of companies that went bankrupt?
3.81safe zone
1.12.6
Working capital ÷ assets 0.23 × 6.56+1.52
Retained earnings ÷ assets 0.27 × 3.26+0.89
Operating income ÷ assets 0.09 × 6.72+0.57
Equity ÷ liabilities 0.78 × 1.05+0.82
Where it misleads: buybacks. A company that returns so much cash that its equity turns small or negative sinks the last two ratios without being anywhere near bankruptcy. Banks and insurers do not fit the model at all.
Beneish M-score
Do the accounts resemble those of companies that manipulated their earnings?
-2.95below the -1.78 line
-1.78
Receivables vs sales 0.86+0.79
Gross margin slipping 1.06+0.56
Soft assets 0.95+0.38
Sales growth 0.92+0.82
Slower depreciation 1.06+0.12
Overheads vs sales 1.04-0.18
Profit not in cash -0.07-0.31
Leverage rising 0.91-0.30
Where it misleads: fast growth and acquisitions. Sales growth carries a heavy weight, so a company growing 50% a year scores like a suspect without having done anything. It is a screen from a 1999 study, not an accusation.
Where the statements disagree
Cross-checks between the income statement, the balance sheet and the cash flow for the latest year, each with the benign reading and the worrying one.
Capital spending (26M) is well below depreciation (46M).
Benign
Mature assets, or a business that has become less capital-intensive.
Worrying
Under-investing: today's profit is being held up by consuming tomorrow's capacity.
What is it worth, under which assumptions?
A company is worth the cash it will generate, brought back to today. This model projects revenue with growth that fades over the years, applies a free cash flow margin, and discounts the result at the cost of capital. Every assumption says where it came from, and all of them can be changed.
Value per share, with these assumptions$18.25discounted at 7.5% a year · 62% of it from after year 10
Type a share price on the left to ask the reverse questions: what growth, what margin or what discount rate that price implies.
What the value implies, in the usual multiples
At this model's value
Price ÷ earnings
47.4×
Enterprise value ÷ EBITDA
18.4×
Enterprise value ÷ revenue
3.3×
Free cash flow yield
3.8%
From cash flows to a value per share
10 years of cash flow, today1.1B
Everything after, today1.8B
The whole business2.9B
Minus net debt-351.3M
What belongs to shareholders2.5B
Divided among 139.7M shares: <strong>$18.25</strong> each.
The projection next to its history
Reported free cash flow after stock pay, then the model's. A projection that looks nothing like the past needs a reason.
ReportedProjected
050.0M100.0M150.0M200.0M
2019
2020Reported 94.3M
2021
2022Reported 49.6M
2022
2022Reported 75.6M
2023Reported 188.9M
2024Reported 123.2M
2026Reported 97.8M
2027Projected 138.6M
2028Projected 144.0M
2029Projected 149.2M
2030Projected 154.5M
2031Projected 159.6M
2032Projected 164.7M
2033Projected 169.6M
2034Projected 174.4M
2035Projected 179.1M
2036Projected 183.5M
2019202120222023202620282030203220342036
Year by year
2027
2028
2029
2030
2031
2032
2033
2034
2035
2036
Revenue
919.6M
954.8M
989.8M
1.0B
1.1B
1.1B
1.1B
1.2B
1.2B
1.2B
Growth
4.0%
3.8%
3.7%
3.5%
3.3%
3.2%
3.0%
2.8%
2.7%
2.5%
Cash margin
15.1%
15.1%
15.1%
15.1%
15.1%
15.1%
15.1%
15.1%
15.1%
15.1%
Free cash flow
138.6M
144.0M
149.2M
154.5M
159.6M
164.7M
169.6M
174.4M
179.1M
183.5M
Worth today
128.9M
124.5M
120.0M
115.6M
111.1M
106.6M
102.1M
97.6M
93.2M
88.8M
If the least-known inputs move
Value per share as two inputs change at a time. Neighbouring cells that differ a lot are the conclusion: the value depends on numbers nobody knows to a point.
The discount rate and growth forever
discount ↓ · forever →
1.5%
2.0%
2.5%
3.0%
3.5%
6.5%
19
21
23
27
31
7.0%
17
19
21
23
26
7.5%
15
17
18
20
23
8.0%
14
15
16
18
20
8.5%
13
14
15
16
18
Year-one growth and the final margin
margin ↓ · growth →
0.0%
2.0%
4.0%
6.0%
8.0%
12.1%
12
13
15
16
18
13.6%
14
15
17
18
20
15.1%
15
17
18
20
22
16.6%
16
18
20
22
24
18.1%
18
20
22
24
26
All the inputs moving at once
4,998 valuations, each with growth, final margin, discount rate and growth forever drawn at random around the values on the left (spreads of 3.0%, 2.3%, 1.0% and 0.5%). Not a probability — the spreads are assumptions too — but an honest picture of how wide the answer is.
10th percentile$12.46
Median$18.28
90th percentile$28.46
$10.00$20.00$30.00$40.00
Half of the simulations land between <b>$14.91</b> and <b>$22.78</b>; one in ten below $12.46, one in ten above $28.46.
Does the long run make sense?
17.3×The terminal value prices the business in year 10 at 17.3 times that year's EBITDA.
Free growthIn year 10 free cash flow is at or above after-tax operating profit, yet the model grows 2.5% forever. Growth needs reinvestment; this assumes it comes for free, which flatters the terminal value.
62%of the value comes from after year 10. The more of it, the more the answer depends on the part nobody can see.
Every Form 4 filed in the last twelve months, read line by line: 6 filings by 6 people. Open-market purchases and sales are counted apart from awards, option exercises and shares withheld for taxes.
Bought on the open market—none in the period
Sold on the open market—none in the period
Under pre-arranged plans—of the sales followed a 10b5-1 plan set months earlier
A Form 4 says what happened, when, how many shares and at what price. It does not say why: a sale can be diversification, a tax bill or a plan fixed months earlier, and an award is pay, not a purchase. Nothing here is a reason to buy or sell anything.
Companies like this one
Same SEC industry (metal doors, sash, frames, moldings & trim) first, then the rest of industrials.
Accounts from the company's own SEC filings; lines some companies do not report are shown as a dash rather than estimated. The risk-free rate is the 10-year US Treasury yield. A DCF is a way of making assumptions explicit, not a forecast: it states what the company would be worth if the assumptions held. The scores are screens that point where to look, not verdicts. Nothing here is a recommendation to buy or sell.