IT · Industrials(services-management services) · 10 years of annual accounts filed with the SEC · latest fiscal year ended 2025-12-31
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Gartner Inc reported revenue of $6.5 billion in fiscal 2025, after growing 11.5% a year over the previous 9 years. Its operating margin widened from 12.5% in 2016 to 15.8%, and it earned 23.4% on its invested capital in the latest year. Of the $8.9 billion its operations generated over 10 years, 76.0% went to buybacks and 31.1% to acquisitions; the share count fell 9.8%. On the accounting screens, it passes 6 of 9 Piotroski tests, its Altman Z'' of 3.60 is in the safe zone and its Beneish M-score is below the -1.78 line; 1 of the six cross-checks between its statements fires.
Revenue, fiscal 20256.5B+11.5% a year over 9 years
Operating margin15.8%gross margin 68.4%
Return on invested capital23.4%27.9% on average over 5 years
Free cash flow after stock pay1.0B15.7% of revenue
Net debt ÷ EBITDA1.0×net debt 1.3B
Piotroski F-score6/9tests of improvement passed
Is it growing?
Revenue and the operating income it turns into. Growth that does not reach operating income is growth bought with margin.
RevenueOperating income
-2.0B02.0B4.0B6.0B8.0B
2016Revenue 2.4BOperating income 305.1M
2017Revenue 3.3BOperating income -6.3M
2018Revenue 4.0BOperating income 259.7M
2019Revenue 4.2BOperating income 370.1M
2020Revenue 4.1BOperating income 490.1M
2021Revenue 4.7BOperating income 915.8M
2022Revenue 5.5BOperating income 1.1B
2023Revenue 5.9BOperating income 1.2B
2024Revenue 6.3BOperating income 1.2B
2025Revenue 6.5BOperating income 1.0B
2016201720182019202020212022202320242025
Compound growth a year
3 yrs
5 yrs
9 yrs
Revenue
+5.9%
+9.6%
+11.5%
Operating income
-2.3%
+15.9%
+14.4%
Net income
-3.4%
+22.3%
+15.9%
Earnings per share
-1.1%
+26.6%
+17.2%
Free cash flow per share
+8.3%
+11.3%
+17.1%
Shares
-2.3%
-3.4%
-1.1%
Falling shares are buybacks: each remaining share owns more of the company.
Does it earn more than its capital costs?
Margins say how much of each sale is kept; return on invested capital says how much the business earns on the money it needs to operate. Growth only creates value when that return is above the cost of the capital.
Return on invested capitalCost of capital today · 4.5%
-10.0%0.0%10.0%20.0%30.0%40.0%
2016Return on invested capital 27.1%
2017Return on invested capital -0.3%
2018Return on invested capital 5.6%
2019Return on invested capital 10.0%
2020Return on invested capital 13.1%
2021Return on invested capital 26.4%
2022Return on invested capital 32.2%
2023Return on invested capital 30.3%
2024Return on invested capital 27.4%
2025Return on invested capital 23.4%
2016201720182019202020212022202320242025
Economic profit
Economic profit
-500.0M0500.0M1.0B
2016Economic profit 170.8M
2017Economic profit -204.7M
2018Economic profit 34.6M
2019Economic profit 172.5M
2020Economic profit 262.7M
2021Economic profit 621.7M
2022Economic profit 744.1M
2023Economic profit 810.2M
2024Economic profit 872.9M
2025Economic profit 624.0M
2016201720182019202020212022202320242025
(return on capital − cost of capital) × capital invested: the profit left after paying for the money used. Today's cost of capital is applied to every year, since a past one cannot be rebuilt honestly.
Return on equity
228.0%
Return on assets
9.0%
Asset turnover
0.80×
Overheads (SG&A)
47.2% of revenue
Is the profit cash, and where does the cash go?
Net income is an accounting opinion; free cash flow is what was left in the bank after investing. Stock-based pay does not leave the bank — shareholders pay it through dilution — so it is shown taken off as well.
Net incomeFree cash flowAfter stock-based pay
0500.0M1.0B1.5B
2016Net income 193.6MFree cash flow 315.8MAfter stock-based pay 269.1M
2017Net income 3.3MFree cash flow 143.8MAfter stock-based pay 64.8M
2018Net income 122.5MFree cash flow 344.3MAfter stock-based pay 278.1M
2019Net income 233.3MFree cash flow 416.4MAfter stock-based pay 347.4M
2020Net income 266.7MFree cash flow 819.4MAfter stock-based pay 756.9M
2021Net income 793.6MFree cash flow 1.3BAfter stock-based pay 1.2B
2022Net income 807.8MFree cash flow 993.4MAfter stock-based pay 902.8M
2023Net income 882.5MFree cash flow 1.1BAfter stock-based pay 922.8M
2024Net income 1.3BFree cash flow 1.4BAfter stock-based pay 1.2B
2025Net income 729.2MFree cash flow 1.2BAfter stock-based pay 1.0B
2016201720182019202020212022202320242025
Where 10 years of operating cash went, 2016–2025
8.9B generated by the business. Each band is its share of that total.
Reinvested in the business 11%1.0B
Acquisitions 31%2.8B
Dividends 0%0
Share buybacks 76%6.8B
More than it generated: funded with cash or new debt -18%-1.6B
Over the same years it paid 953.0M in stock. The share count fell 9.8%. 5.8B of the buybacks went beyond offsetting that dilution.
Per share
Earnings per shareFree cash flow per shareDividend per share
$0.00$5.00$10.00$15.00$20.00
2016Earnings per share $2.31Free cash flow per share $3.77
2017Earnings per share $0.04Free cash flow per share $1.60
2018Earnings per share $1.33Free cash flow per share $3.74
2019Earnings per share $2.56Free cash flow per share $4.58
2020Earnings per share $2.96Free cash flow per share $9.10
2021Earnings per share $9.21Free cash flow per share $14.54
2022Earnings per share $9.96Free cash flow per share $12.25
2023Earnings per share $11.08Free cash flow per share $13.21
2024Earnings per share $16.00Free cash flow per share $17.66
2025Earnings per share $9.65Free cash flow per share $15.54
2016201720182019202020212022202320242025
Shares outstanding
Diluted shares
75.0M80.0M85.0M90.0M95.0M
2016Diluted shares 83.8M
2017Diluted shares 89.8M
2018Diluted shares 92.1M
2019Diluted shares 91.0M
2020Diluted shares 90.0M
2021Diluted shares 86.2M
2022Diluted shares 81.1M
2023Diluted shares 79.7M
2024Diluted shares 78.3M
2025Diluted shares 75.6M
2016201720182019202020212022202320242025
How strong is the balance sheet?
Debt is not bad in itself; debt the business cannot service in a bad year is. Net debt is debt minus cash, and below zero the company holds more cash than it owes.
Net debt
01.0B2.0B3.0B
2016Net debt 220.2M
2017Net debt 2.7B
2018Net debt 2.1B
2019Net debt 1.9B
2020Net debt 1.3B
2021Net debt 1.7B
2022Net debt 1.8B
2023Net debt 1.1B
2024Net debt 526.8M
2025Net debt 1.3B
2016201720182019202020212022202320242025
Net debt ÷ EBITDA
1.0×
Interest coverage
8× operating income ÷ interest
Current ratio
1.00 current assets ÷ current liabilities
Cash conversion cycle
— collects in 95d
Three classic screens of the accounts
Each asks a different question of the same statements — is it improving, does it look like a company heading for distress, do the accounts resemble ones that were manipulated. None is a verdict; each shows what moves it.
Piotroski F-score
Is the business improving? Nine yes-or-no tests, this year against last.
6of 9 tests passed
✓ProfitableReturn on assets above zeropassed
✓Cash from operationsOperating cash flow above zeropassed
✕Profitability improvedReturn on assets higher than a year beforefailed
✓Profit backed by cashOperating cash flow above net income (low accruals)passed
✕Less long-term debtLong-term debt as a share of assets fellfailed
✕More liquidCurrent ratio higher than a year beforefailed
✓No new sharesShare count did not growpassed
✓Better gross marginGross margin higher than a year beforepassed
✓Sells more per assetAsset turnover higher than a year beforepassed
Where it misleads: it measures change, not level. An excellent business that stood still for a year scores low; a poor one recovering from a disaster scores high.
Altman Z''-score
Does the balance sheet look like those of companies that went bankrupt?
3.60safe zone
1.12.6
Working capital ÷ assets -0.00 × 6.56-0.00
Retained earnings ÷ assets 0.83 × 3.26+2.71
Operating income ÷ assets 0.13 × 6.72+0.85
Equity ÷ liabilities 0.04 × 1.05+0.04
Where it misleads: buybacks. A company that returns so much cash that its equity turns small or negative sinks the last two ratios without being anywhere near bankruptcy. Banks and insurers do not fit the model at all.
Beneish M-score
Do the accounts resemble those of companies that manipulated their earnings?
-2.89below the -1.78 line
-1.78
Receivables vs sales 0.96+0.88
Gross margin slipping 0.99+0.52
Soft assets 0.98+0.40
Sales growth 1.04+0.92
Slower depreciation 0.94+0.11
Overheads vs sales 1.03-0.18
Profit not in cash -0.07-0.32
Leverage rising 1.16-0.38
Where it misleads: fast growth and acquisitions. Sales growth carries a heavy weight, so a company growing 50% a year scores like a suspect without having done anything. It is a screen from a 1999 study, not an accusation.
Where the statements disagree
Cross-checks between the income statement, the balance sheet and the cash flow for the latest year, each with the benign reading and the worrying one.
Capital spending (115M) is well below depreciation (200M).
Benign
Mature assets, or a business that has become less capital-intensive.
Worrying
Under-investing: today's profit is being held up by consuming tomorrow's capacity.
What is it worth, under which assumptions?
A company is worth the cash it will generate, brought back to today. This model projects revenue with growth that fades over the years, applies a free cash flow margin, and discounts the result at the cost of capital. Every assumption says where it came from, and all of them can be changed.
84% of the value comes from after year 10: this valuation rests mostly on the long run, which is exactly what is least known.
Value per share, with these assumptions$773.96discounted at 4.5% a year · 84% of it from after year 10
Type a share price on the left to ask the reverse questions: what growth, what margin or what discount rate that price implies.
What the value implies, in the usual multiples
At this model's value
Price ÷ earnings
80.2×
Enterprise value ÷ EBITDA
48.8×
Enterprise value ÷ revenue
9.2×
Free cash flow yield
1.7%
From cash flows to a value per share
10 years of cash flow, today9.8B
Everything after, today50.0B
The whole business59.8B
Minus net debt-1.3B
What belongs to shareholders58.5B
Divided among 75.6M shares: <strong>$773.96</strong> each.
The projection next to its history
Reported free cash flow after stock pay, then the model's. A projection that looks nothing like the past needs a reason.
ReportedProjected
0500.0M1.0B1.5B2.0B
2016Reported 269.1M
2017Reported 64.8M
2018Reported 278.1M
2019Reported 347.4M
2020Reported 756.9M
2021Reported 1.2B
2022Reported 902.8M
2023Reported 922.8M
2024Reported 1.2B
2025Reported 1.0B
2026Projected 930.1M
2027Projected 1.0B
2028Projected 1.1B
2029Projected 1.2B
2030Projected 1.2B
2031Projected 1.3B
2032Projected 1.4B
2033Projected 1.4B
2034Projected 1.5B
2035Projected 1.5B
2016201820202022202420262028203020322034
Year by year
2026
2027
2028
2029
2030
2031
2032
2033
2034
2035
Revenue
7.1B
7.7B
8.3B
8.9B
9.5B
10.1B
10.5B
11.0B
11.3B
11.6B
Growth
9.5%
8.7%
7.9%
7.2%
6.4%
5.6%
4.8%
4.1%
3.3%
2.5%
Cash margin
13.1%
13.1%
13.1%
13.1%
13.1%
13.1%
13.1%
13.1%
13.1%
13.1%
Free cash flow
930.1M
1.0B
1.1B
1.2B
1.2B
1.3B
1.4B
1.4B
1.5B
1.5B
Worth today
890.0M
926.0M
956.5M
980.9M
998.6M
1.0B
1.0B
1.0B
996.2M
977.1M
If the least-known inputs move
Value per share as two inputs change at a time. Neighbouring cells that differ a lot are the conclusion: the value depends on numbers nobody knows to a point.
The discount rate and growth forever
discount ↓ · forever →
1.5%
2.0%
2.5%
3.0%
3.5%
3.5%
806
1,063
1,578
3,123
—
4.0%
638
790
1,043
1,548
3,063
4.5%
527
626
774
1,021
1,514
5.0%
448
517
614
760
1,003
5.5%
388
439
507
603
746
Year-one growth and the final margin
margin ↓ · growth →
5.5%
7.5%
9.5%
11.5%
13.5%
10.5%
522
572
627
687
751
11.8%
583
639
701
767
839
13.1%
644
706
774
847
926
14.4%
704
773
847
928
1,014
15.7%
765
840
921
1,008
1,102
All the inputs moving at once
4,118 valuations, each with growth, final margin, discount rate and growth forever drawn at random around the values on the left (spreads of 3.0%, 2.0%, 1.0% and 0.5%). Not a probability — the spreads are assumptions too — but an honest picture of how wide the answer is.
10th percentile$403.25
Median$689.53
90th percentile$1,254.58
$500.00$1,000.00$1,500.00
Half of the simulations land between <b>$514.70</b> and <b>$942.70</b>; one in ten below $403.25, one in ten above $1,254.58.
Does the long run make sense?
35.5×The terminal value prices the business in year 10 at 35.5 times that year's EBITDA.
Free growthIn year 10 free cash flow is at or above after-tax operating profit, yet the model grows 2.5% forever. Growth needs reinvestment; this assumes it comes for free, which flatters the terminal value.
84%of the value comes from after year 10. The more of it, the more the answer depends on the part nobody can see.
Every Form 4 filed in the last twelve months, read line by line: 6 filings by 5 people. Open-market purchases and sales are counted apart from awards, option exercises and shares withheld for taxes.
Bought on the open market—none in the period
Sold on the open market$644,1271 sale(s) by 1 insider(s)
Under pre-arranged plans0%of the sales followed a 10b5-1 plan set months earlier
A Form 4 says what happened, when, how many shares and at what price. It does not say why: a sale can be diversification, a tax bill or a plan fixed months earlier, and an award is pay, not a purchase. Nothing here is a reason to buy or sell anything.
Which large funds report holding it
From the Form 13F of the 28 institutions followed on this site, as of the end of their last reported quarter. A 13F is filed up to 45 days later and shows only long positions in US-listed shares.
Accounts from the company's own SEC filings; lines some companies do not report are shown as a dash rather than estimated. The risk-free rate is the 10-year US Treasury yield. A DCF is a way of making assumptions explicit, not a forecast: it states what the company would be worth if the assumptions held. The scores are screens that point where to look, not verdicts. Nothing here is a recommendation to buy or sell.