HDSN · Industrials(wholesale-machinery, equipment & supplies) · 10 years of annual accounts filed with the SEC · latest fiscal year ended 2025-12-31
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Hudson Technologies Inc reported revenue of $246.6 million in fiscal 2025, after growing 9.9% a year over the previous 9 years. Its operating margin narrowed from 18.0% in 2016 to 7.5%. Of the $318.3 million its operations generated over 10 years, 8.8% went to buybacks and 8.1% back into the business; the share count rose 27.4%. On the accounting screens, it passes 2 of 8 Piotroski tests, its Altman Z'' of 8.35 is in the safe zone and its Beneish M-score is below the -1.78 line; 3 of the six cross-checks between its statements fire.
Revenue, fiscal 2025246.6M+9.9% a year over 9 years
Operating margin7.5%gross margin 25.2%
Return on invested capital—40.4% on average over 2 years
Free cash flow after stock pay-9.3M-3.8% of revenue
Net debt ÷ EBITDA—net debt —
Piotroski F-score2/8tests of improvement passed
Is it growing?
Revenue and the operating income it turns into. Growth that does not reach operating income is growth bought with margin.
RevenueOperating income
-100.0M0100.0M200.0M300.0M400.0M
2016Revenue 105.5MOperating income 18.9M
2017Revenue 140.4MOperating income 15.1M
2018Revenue 166.5MOperating income -42.6M
2019Revenue 162.1MOperating income -15.8M
2020Revenue 147.6MOperating income 5.9M
2021Revenue 192.7MOperating income 42.3M
2022Revenue 325.2MOperating income 131.5M
2023Revenue 289.0MOperating income 78.2M
2024Revenue 237.1MOperating income 29.3M
2025Revenue 246.6MOperating income 18.6M
2016201720182019202020212022202320242025
Compound growth a year
3 yrs
5 yrs
9 yrs
Revenue
-8.8%
+10.8%
+9.9%
Operating income
-47.9%
+25.7%
-0.2%
Net income
-45.6%
—
+5.1%
Earnings per share
-44.9%
—
+2.3%
Shares
-1.4%
+1.1%
+2.7%
Falling shares are buybacks: each remaining share owns more of the company.
Does it earn more than its capital costs?
Margins say how much of each sale is kept; return on invested capital says how much the business earns on the money it needs to operate. Growth only creates value when that return is above the cost of the capital.
Return on invested capitalCost of capital today · 10.2%
-40.0%-20.0%0.0%20.0%40.0%60.0%
2016Return on invested capital 10.4%
2017Return on invested capital 6.2%
2018Return on invested capital -25.8%
2019Return on invested capital -12.4%
2020Return on invested capital 4.8%
2021Return on invested capital 27.4%
2022Return on invested capital 53.4%
2023
2024
2025
2016201720182019202020212022202320242025
Economic profit
Economic profit
-100.0M-50.0M050.0M100.0M
2016Economic profit 265,696
2017Economic profit -8.9M
2018Economic profit -61.2M
2019Economic profit -29.4M
2020Economic profit -6.7M
2021Economic profit 25.7M
2022Economic profit 94.3M
2023
2024
2025
2016201720182019202020212022202320242025
(return on capital − cost of capital) × capital invested: the profit left after paying for the money used. Today's cost of capital is applied to every year, since a past one cannot be rebuilt honestly.
Return on equity
6.8%
Return on assets
5.2%
Asset turnover
0.77×
Overheads (SG&A)
16.3% of revenue
Is the profit cash, and where does the cash go?
Net income is an accounting opinion; free cash flow is what was left in the bank after investing. Stock-based pay does not leave the bank — shareholders pay it through dilution — so it is shown taken off as well.
Net incomeFree cash flowAfter stock-based pay
-100.0M-50.0M050.0M100.0M150.0M
2016Net income 10.6MFree cash flow 7.6MAfter stock-based pay 6.9M
2017Net income 11.2MFree cash flow 17.3MAfter stock-based pay 15.8M
2018Net income -55.7MFree cash flow 35.2MAfter stock-based pay 33.8M
2019Net income -25.9MFree cash flow 32.8MAfter stock-based pay 31.0M
2020Net income -5.2MFree cash flow 10.2MAfter stock-based pay 9.6M
2021Net income 32.3MFree cash flow -3.1MAfter stock-based pay -3.7M
2022Net income 103.8MFree cash flow 59.2MAfter stock-based pay 58.2M
2023Net income 52.2MFree cash flow 55.0MAfter stock-based pay 52.7M
2024Net income 24.4MFree cash flow 86.5MAfter stock-based pay 85.7M
2025Net income 16.7MFree cash flow -8.2MAfter stock-based pay -9.3M
2016201720182019202020212022202320242025
Where 10 years of operating cash went, 2016–2025
318.3M generated by the business. Each band is its share of that total.
Reinvested in the business 8%25.8M
Acquisitions 0%0
Dividends 0%0
Share buybacks 9%28.2M
Kept, or used to pay down debt 83%264.3M
Over the same years it paid 11.8M in stock. The share count rose 27.4%. 16.4M of the buybacks went beyond offsetting that dilution.
Per share
Earnings per shareFree cash flow per shareDividend per share
$-2.00$-1.00$0.00$1.00$2.00$3.00
2016Earnings per share $0.30Free cash flow per share $0.22
2017Earnings per share $0.26Free cash flow per share $0.41
2018Earnings per share $-1.31Free cash flow per share $0.83
2019Earnings per share $-0.61Free cash flow per share $0.77
2020Earnings per share $-0.12Free cash flow per share $0.24
2021Earnings per share $0.69Free cash flow per share $-0.07
2022Earnings per share $2.20Free cash flow per share $1.26
2023Earnings per share $1.10Free cash flow per share $1.16
2024Earnings per share $0.52Free cash flow per share $1.84
2025Earnings per share $0.37Free cash flow per share $-0.18
2016201720182019202020212022202320242025
Shares outstanding
Diluted shares
35.0M40.0M45.0M50.0M
2016Diluted shares 35.4M
2017Diluted shares 42.8M
2018Diluted shares 42.5M
2019Diluted shares 42.6M
2020Diluted shares 42.7M
2021Diluted shares 46.6M
2022Diluted shares 47.1M
2023Diluted shares 47.3M
2024Diluted shares 47.1M
2025Diluted shares 45.1M
2016201720182019202020212022202320242025
How strong is the balance sheet?
Debt is not bad in itself; debt the business cannot service in a bad year is. Net debt is debt minus cash, and below zero the company holds more cash than it owes.
Net debt
-50.0M050.0M100.0M
2016Net debt -33.8M
2017Net debt 97.2M
2018Net debt 98.7M
2019Net debt 82.4M
2020Net debt 83.9M
2021Net debt 74.9M
2022Net debt 37.9M
2023
2024
2025
2016201720182019202020212022202320242025
Net debt ÷ EBITDA
—
Interest coverage
— operating income ÷ interest
Current ratio
3.26 current assets ÷ current liabilities
Cash conversion cycle
252 days collects in 25d, stock 269d, pays in 42d
Three classic screens of the accounts
Each asks a different question of the same statements — is it improving, does it look like a company heading for distress, do the accounts resemble ones that were manipulated. None is a verdict; each shows what moves it.
Piotroski F-score
Is the business improving? Nine yes-or-no tests, this year against last.
2of 8 tests passed
✓ProfitableReturn on assets above zeropassed
✕Cash from operationsOperating cash flow above zerofailed
✕Profitability improvedReturn on assets higher than a year beforefailed
✕Profit backed by cashOperating cash flow above net income (low accruals)failed
–Less long-term debtLong-term debt as a share of assets fell — not reportedno data
✕More liquidCurrent ratio higher than a year beforefailed
✓No new sharesShare count did not growpassed
✕Better gross marginGross margin higher than a year beforefailed
✕Sells more per assetAsset turnover higher than a year beforefailed
Where it misleads: it measures change, not level. An excellent business that stood still for a year scores low; a poor one recovering from a disaster scores high.
Altman Z''-score
Does the balance sheet look like those of companies that went bankrupt?
8.35safe zone
1.12.6
Working capital ÷ assets 0.46 × 6.56+3.01
Retained earnings ÷ assets 0.47 × 3.26+1.55
Operating income ÷ assets 0.06 × 6.72+0.39
Equity ÷ liabilities 3.23 × 1.05+3.40
Where it misleads: buybacks. A company that returns so much cash that its equity turns small or negative sinks the last two ratios without being anywhere near bankruptcy. Banks and insurers do not fit the model at all.
Beneish M-score
Do the accounts resemble those of companies that manipulated their earnings?
-2.04below the -1.78 line
-1.78
Receivables vs sales 1.21+1.11
Gross margin slipping 1.10+0.58
Soft assets 0.93+0.38
Sales growth 1.04+0.93
Slower depreciation 1.19+0.14
Overheads vs sales 1.17-0.20
Profit not in cash 0.06+0.29
Leverage rising 1.28-0.42
Where it misleads: fast growth and acquisitions. Sales growth carries a heavy weight, so a company growing 50% a year scores like a suspect without having done anything. It is a screen from a 1999 study, not an accusation.
Where the statements disagree
Cross-checks between the income statement, the balance sheet and the cash flow for the latest year, each with the benign reading and the worrying one.
Receivables are growing 25% against revenue growing 4%.
Benign
A shift towards larger customers on longer terms, or sales concentrated at the end of the period.
Worrying
Sales are being made on looser credit, or revenue has been booked that may never be collected.
Inventory is growing 41% against revenue growing 4%.
Benign
Stocking up for a launch, or securing supply.
Worrying
Demand is softening; discounts or write-downs tend to follow.
Reported profit comfortably exceeds the cash generated (17M against -3M).
Benign
Growth consuming working capital, or the seasonality of the year-end.
Worrying
Profit held up by accounting entries that do not turn into money.
What is it worth, under which assumptions?
A company is worth the cash it will generate, brought back to today. This model projects revenue with growth that fades over the years, applies a free cash flow margin, and discounts the result at the cost of capital. Every assumption says where it came from, and all of them can be changed.
Value per share, with these assumptions$15.86discounted at 10.2% a year · 52% of it from after year 10
Type a share price on the left to ask the reverse questions: what growth, what margin or what discount rate that price implies.
What the value implies, in the usual multiples
At this model's value
Price ÷ earnings
42.9×
Enterprise value ÷ EBITDA
33.7×
Enterprise value ÷ revenue
2.9×
Free cash flow yield
-1.3%
From cash flows to a value per share
10 years of cash flow, today345.7M
Everything after, today369.9M
The whole business715.6M
Minus net debt-0
What belongs to shareholders715.6M
Divided among 45.1M shares: <strong>$15.86</strong> each.
The projection next to its history
Reported free cash flow after stock pay, then the model's. A projection that looks nothing like the past needs a reason.
ReportedProjected
-25.0M025.0M50.0M75.0M100.0M
2016Reported 6.9M
2017Reported 15.8M
2018Reported 33.8M
2019Reported 31.0M
2020Reported 9.6M
2021Reported -3.7M
2022Reported 58.2M
2023Reported 52.7M
2024Reported 85.7M
2025Reported -9.3M
2026Projected 42.3M
2027Projected 46.5M
2028Projected 50.7M
2029Projected 54.9M
2030Projected 58.8M
2031Projected 62.5M
2032Projected 65.9M
2033Projected 68.8M
2034Projected 71.1M
2035Projected 72.9M
2016201820202022202420262028203020322034
Year by year
2026
2027
2028
2029
2030
2031
2032
2033
2034
2035
Revenue
273.7M
301.3M
328.7M
355.6M
381.2M
405.2M
426.8M
445.5M
460.9M
472.4M
Growth
11.0%
10.1%
9.1%
8.2%
7.2%
6.3%
5.3%
4.4%
3.4%
2.5%
Cash margin
15.4%
15.4%
15.4%
15.4%
15.4%
15.4%
15.4%
15.4%
15.4%
15.4%
Free cash flow
42.3M
46.5M
50.7M
54.9M
58.8M
62.5M
65.9M
68.8M
71.1M
72.9M
Worth today
38.4M
38.3M
37.9M
37.3M
36.3M
35.0M
33.4M
31.7M
29.8M
27.7M
If the least-known inputs move
Value per share as two inputs change at a time. Neighbouring cells that differ a lot are the conclusion: the value depends on numbers nobody knows to a point.
The discount rate and growth forever
discount ↓ · forever →
1.5%
2.0%
2.5%
3.0%
3.5%
9.2%
16
17
18
20
21
9.7%
15
16
17
18
19
10.2%
14
15
16
17
18
10.7%
14
14
15
16
16
11.2%
13
13
14
15
15
Year-one growth and the final margin
margin ↓ · growth →
7.0%
9.0%
11.0%
13.0%
15.0%
12.3%
11
12
13
15
16
13.9%
13
14
15
16
17
15.4%
14
15
16
17
19
17.0%
15
16
17
18
20
18.5%
16
17
18
20
21
All the inputs moving at once
5,000 valuations, each with growth, final margin, discount rate and growth forever drawn at random around the values on the left (spreads of 3.0%, 2.3%, 1.0% and 0.5%). Not a probability — the spreads are assumptions too — but an honest picture of how wide the answer is.
10th percentile$12.10
Median$15.90
90th percentile$21.38
$10.00$15.00$20.00$25.00
Half of the simulations land between <b>$13.72</b> and <b>$18.42</b>; one in ten below $12.10, one in ten above $21.38.
Does the long run make sense?
23.9×The terminal value prices the business in year 10 at 23.9 times that year's EBITDA.
Free growthIn year 10 free cash flow is at or above after-tax operating profit, yet the model grows 2.5% forever. Growth needs reinvestment; this assumes it comes for free, which flatters the terminal value.
52%of the value comes from after year 10. The more of it, the more the answer depends on the part nobody can see.
What lenders charge, after the tax saving on interest: 6.67% × (1 − 26.5%) = <strong>4.90%</strong>.
Weighted by how much of each the company uses (book value (no price given)): <strong>10.17%</strong>, the rate every future cash flow is discounted at.
What it has filed lately
The last twelve months at the SEC, most important first: annual and quarterly reports, events, large holders and insiders.
Every Form 4 filed in the last twelve months, read line by line: 6 filings by 1 people. Open-market purchases and sales are counted apart from awards, option exercises and shares withheld for taxes.
Bought on the open market$1.0M8 purchase(s) by 1 insider(s)
Sold on the open market—none in the period
Under pre-arranged plans—of the sales followed a 10b5-1 plan set months earlier
A Form 4 says what happened, when, how many shares and at what price. It does not say why: a sale can be diversification, a tax bill or a plan fixed months earlier, and an award is pay, not a purchase. Nothing here is a reason to buy or sell anything.
Companies like this one
Same SEC industry (wholesale-machinery, equipment & supplies) first, then the rest of industrials.
Accounts from the company's own SEC filings; lines some companies do not report are shown as a dash rather than estimated. The risk-free rate is the 10-year US Treasury yield. A DCF is a way of making assumptions explicit, not a forecast: it states what the company would be worth if the assumptions held. The scores are screens that point where to look, not verdicts. Nothing here is a recommendation to buy or sell.