GIS · Consumer staples(grain mill products) · 10 years of annual accounts filed with the SEC · latest fiscal year ended 2026-05-31
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General Mills Inc reported revenue of $18.4 billion in fiscal 2026, after growing 1.9% a year over the previous 9 years. Its operating margin narrowed from 16.0% in 2017 to 4.8%, and it earned -0.1% on its invested capital in the latest year. Of the $29.2 billion its operations generated over 10 years, 42.6% went to dividends and 29.3% to buybacks; the share count fell 10.1%. On the accounting screens, it passes 5 of 9 Piotroski tests, its Altman Z'' of 2.30 is in the grey zone and its Beneish M-score is below the -1.78 line; 1 of the six cross-checks between its statements fires.
Revenue, fiscal 202618.4B+1.9% a year over 9 years
Operating margin4.8%gross margin 33.6%
Return on invested capital-0.1%18.4% on average over 5 years
Free cash flow after stock pay1.5B8.4% of revenue
Net debt ÷ EBITDA9.0×net debt 13.0B
Piotroski F-score5/9tests of improvement passed
Is it growing?
Revenue and the operating income it turns into. Growth that does not reach operating income is growth bought with margin.
RevenueOperating income
010.0B20.0B30.0B
2017Revenue 15.6BOperating income 2.5B
2018Revenue 15.7BOperating income 2.4B
2019Revenue 16.9BOperating income 2.5B
2020Revenue 17.6BOperating income 3.0B
2021Revenue 18.1BOperating income 3.1B
2022Revenue 19.0BOperating income 3.5B
2023Revenue 20.1BOperating income 3.4B
2024Revenue 19.9BOperating income 3.4B
2025Revenue 19.5BOperating income 3.3B
2026Revenue 18.4BOperating income 885.8M
2017201820192020202120222023202420252026
Compound growth a year
3 yrs
5 yrs
9 yrs
Revenue
-2.9%
+0.3%
+1.9%
Operating income
-36.3%
-22.4%
-10.9%
Free cash flow per share
-4.5%
-5.3%
+0.5%
Dividend per share
+4.5%
+4.0%
+2.9%
Shares
-3.7%
-2.8%
-1.2%
Falling shares are buybacks: each remaining share owns more of the company.
Does it earn more than its capital costs?
Margins say how much of each sale is kept; return on invested capital says how much the business earns on the money it needs to operate. Growth only creates value when that return is above the cost of the capital.
Return on invested capitalCost of capital today · 6.4%
-10.0%0.0%10.0%20.0%30.0%40.0%
2017Return on invested capital 31.9%
2018Return on invested capital 30.6%
2019Return on invested capital 24.3%
2020Return on invested capital 28.9%
2021Return on invested capital 24.9%
2022Return on invested capital 25.0%
2023Return on invested capital 26.4%
2024Return on invested capital 29.3%
2025Return on invested capital 11.3%
2026Return on invested capital -0.1%
2017201820192020202120222023202420252026
Economic profit
Economic profit
-2.0B-1.0B01.0B2.0B3.0B
2017Economic profit 1.4B
2018Economic profit 1.9B
2019Economic profit 1.5B
2020Economic profit 1.9B
2021Economic profit 1.8B
2022Economic profit 2.1B
2023Economic profit 2.1B
2024Economic profit 2.2B
2025Economic profit 1.1B
2026Economic profit -1.4B
2017201820192020202120222023202420252026
(return on capital − cost of capital) × capital invested: the profit left after paying for the money used. Today's cost of capital is applied to every year, since a past one cannot be rebuilt honestly.
Return on equity
-1.2%
Return on assets
-0.3%
Asset turnover
0.61×
Research & development
1.4% of revenue
Overheads (SG&A)
18.4% of revenue
Is the profit cash, and where does the cash go?
Net income is an accounting opinion; free cash flow is what was left in the bank after investing. Stock-based pay does not leave the bank — shareholders pay it through dilution — so it is shown taken off as well.
Net incomeFree cash flowAfter stock-based pay
-1.0B01.0B2.0B3.0B4.0B
2017Net income 1.7BFree cash flow 1.7BAfter stock-based pay 1.6B
2018Net income 2.1BFree cash flow 2.2BAfter stock-based pay 2.1B
2019Net income 1.8BFree cash flow 2.3BAfter stock-based pay 2.2B
2020Net income 2.2BFree cash flow 3.2BAfter stock-based pay 3.1B
2021Net income 2.3BFree cash flow 2.5BAfter stock-based pay 2.4B
2022Net income 2.7BFree cash flow 2.7BAfter stock-based pay 2.6B
2023Net income 2.6BFree cash flow 2.1BAfter stock-based pay 2.0B
2024Net income 2.5BFree cash flow 2.5BAfter stock-based pay 2.4B
2025Net income 2.3BFree cash flow 2.3BAfter stock-based pay 2.2B
2026Net income -87.6MFree cash flow 1.6BAfter stock-based pay 1.5B
2017201820192020202120222023202420252026
Where 10 years of operating cash went, 2017–2026
29.2B generated by the business. Each band is its share of that total.
Reinvested in the business 21%6.0B
Acquisitions 28%8.0B
Dividends 43%12.4B
Share buybacks 29%8.5B
More than it generated: funded with cash or new debt -20%-5.9B
Over the same years it paid 919.2M in stock. The share count fell 10.1%. 7.6B of the buybacks went beyond offsetting that dilution.
Per share
Earnings per shareFree cash flow per shareDividend per share
$-2.00$0.00$2.00$4.00$6.00
2017Earnings per share $2.77Free cash flow per share $2.89Dividend per share $1.90
2018Earnings per share $3.64Free cash flow per share $3.79Dividend per share $1.95
2019Earnings per share $2.90Free cash flow per share $3.75Dividend per share $1.95
2020Earnings per share $3.56Free cash flow per share $5.24Dividend per share $1.95
2021Earnings per share $3.78Free cash flow per share $3.96Dividend per share $2.01
2022Earnings per share $4.42Free cash flow per share $4.48Dividend per share $2.03
2023Earnings per share $4.31Free cash flow per share $3.47Dividend per share $2.14
2024Earnings per share $4.31Free cash flow per share $4.36Dividend per share $2.35
2025Earnings per share $4.12Free cash flow per share $4.11Dividend per share $2.40
2026Earnings per share $-0.16Free cash flow per share $3.02Dividend per share $2.45
2017201820192020202120222023202420252026
Shares outstanding
Diluted shares
525.0M550.0M575.0M600.0M625.0M
2017Diluted shares 598.0M
2018Diluted shares 585.7M
2019Diluted shares 605.4M
2020Diluted shares 613.3M
2021Diluted shares 619.1M
2022Diluted shares 612.6M
2023Diluted shares 601.2M
2024Diluted shares 579.5M
2025Diluted shares 557.5M
2026Diluted shares 537.7M
2017201820192020202120222023202420252026
How strong is the balance sheet?
Debt is not bad in itself; debt the business cannot service in a bad year is. Net debt is debt minus cash, and below zero the company holds more cash than it owes.
Net debt
-5.0B05.0B10.0B15.0B
2017Net debt 468.0M
2018Net debt 1.2B
2019Net debt 1.0B
2020Net debt -1.4B
2021Net debt -1.1B
2022Net debt 242.0M
2023Net debt -553.8M
2024Net debt -406.2M
2025Net debt 13.8B
2026Net debt 13.0B
2017201820192020202120222023202420252026
Net debt ÷ EBITDA
9.0×
Interest coverage
— operating income ÷ interest
Current ratio
0.68 current assets ÷ current liabilities
Cash conversion cycle
-21 days collects in 33d, stock 57d, pays in 111d
Three classic screens of the accounts
Each asks a different question of the same statements — is it improving, does it look like a company heading for distress, do the accounts resemble ones that were manipulated. None is a verdict; each shows what moves it.
Piotroski F-score
Is the business improving? Nine yes-or-no tests, this year against last.
5of 9 tests passed
✕ProfitableReturn on assets above zerofailed
✓Cash from operationsOperating cash flow above zeropassed
✕Profitability improvedReturn on assets higher than a year beforefailed
✓Profit backed by cashOperating cash flow above net income (low accruals)passed
✕Less long-term debtLong-term debt as a share of assets fellfailed
✓More liquidCurrent ratio higher than a year beforepassed
✓No new sharesShare count did not growpassed
✕Better gross marginGross margin higher than a year beforefailed
✓Sells more per assetAsset turnover higher than a year beforepassed
Where it misleads: it measures change, not level. An excellent business that stood still for a year scores low; a poor one recovering from a disaster scores high.
Altman Z''-score
Does the balance sheet look like those of companies that went bankrupt?
2.30grey zone
1.12.6
Working capital ÷ assets -0.07 × 6.56-0.47
Retained earnings ÷ assets 0.68 × 3.26+2.23
Operating income ÷ assets 0.03 × 6.72+0.20
Equity ÷ liabilities 0.33 × 1.05+0.34
Where it misleads: buybacks. A company that returns so much cash that its equity turns small or negative sinks the last two ratios without being anywhere near bankruptcy. Banks and insurers do not fit the model at all.
Beneish M-score
Do the accounts resemble those of companies that manipulated their earnings?
-2.92below the -1.78 line
-1.78
Receivables vs sales 0.97+0.89
Gross margin slipping 1.03+0.54
Soft assets 1.00+0.40
Sales growth 0.95+0.84
Slower depreciation 0.93+0.11
Overheads vs sales 1.04-0.18
Profit not in cash -0.08-0.35
Leverage rising 1.03-0.34
Where it misleads: fast growth and acquisitions. Sales growth carries a heavy weight, so a company growing 50% a year scores like a suspect without having done anything. It is a screen from a 1999 study, not an accusation.
Where the statements disagree
Cross-checks between the income statement, the balance sheet and the cash flow for the latest year, each with the benign reading and the worrying one.
Net debt is 9.0 times EBITDA.
Benign
A stable sector with predictable cash flows and comfortable maturities.
Worrying
Little room if earnings fall; the maturity schedule is what to check.
What is it worth, under which assumptions?
A company is worth the cash it will generate, brought back to today. This model projects revenue with growth that fades over the years, applies a free cash flow margin, and discounts the result at the cost of capital. Every assumption says where it came from, and all of them can be changed.
Value per share, with these assumptions$42.02discounted at 6.4% a year · 68% of it from after year 10
Type a share price on the left to ask the reverse questions: what growth, what margin or what discount rate that price implies.
What the value implies, in the usual multiples
At this model's value
Price ÷ earnings
—
Enterprise value ÷ EBITDA
24.7×
Enterprise value ÷ revenue
1.9×
Free cash flow yield
6.8%
From cash flows to a value per share
10 years of cash flow, today11.3B
Everything after, today24.3B
The whole business35.6B
Minus net debt-13.0B
What belongs to shareholders22.6B
Divided among 537.7M shares: <strong>$42.02</strong> each.
The projection next to its history
Reported free cash flow after stock pay, then the model's. A projection that looks nothing like the past needs a reason.
ReportedProjected
01.0B2.0B3.0B4.0B
2017Reported 1.6B
2018Reported 2.1B
2019Reported 2.2B
2020Reported 3.1B
2021Reported 2.4B
2022Reported 2.6B
2023Reported 2.0B
2024Reported 2.4B
2025Reported 2.2B
2026Reported 1.5B
2027Projected 1.5B
2028Projected 1.5B
2029Projected 1.5B
2030Projected 1.5B
2031Projected 1.6B
2032Projected 1.6B
2033Projected 1.6B
2034Projected 1.6B
2035Projected 1.7B
2036Projected 1.7B
2017201920212023202520272029203120332035
Year by year
2027
2028
2029
2030
2031
2032
2033
2034
2035
2036
Revenue
18.5B
18.7B
18.8B
19.0B
19.3B
19.6B
20.0B
20.4B
20.9B
21.4B
Growth
0.5%
0.7%
0.9%
1.2%
1.4%
1.6%
1.8%
2.1%
2.3%
2.5%
Cash margin
8.0%
8.0%
8.0%
8.0%
8.0%
8.0%
8.0%
8.0%
8.0%
8.0%
Free cash flow
1.5B
1.5B
1.5B
1.5B
1.6B
1.6B
1.6B
1.6B
1.7B
1.7B
Worth today
1.4B
1.3B
1.3B
1.2B
1.1B
1.1B
1.0B
997.6M
959.0M
923.9M
If the least-known inputs move
Value per share as two inputs change at a time. Neighbouring cells that differ a lot are the conclusion: the value depends on numbers nobody knows to a point.
The discount rate and growth forever
discount ↓ · forever →
1.5%
2.0%
2.5%
3.0%
3.5%
5.4%
44
53
65
81
106
5.9%
37
43
52
63
79
6.4%
30
36
42
50
62
6.9%
25
29
35
41
49
7.4%
21
25
29
34
40
Year-one growth and the final margin
margin ↓ · growth →
-3.5%
-1.5%
0.5%
2.5%
4.5%
6.4%
22
26
31
36
41
7.2%
26
31
36
42
48
8.0%
31
36
42
48
55
8.8%
36
41
48
54
62
9.6%
40
46
53
60
68
All the inputs moving at once
4,968 valuations, each with growth, final margin, discount rate and growth forever drawn at random around the values on the left (spreads of 3.0%, 2.0%, 1.0% and 0.5%). Not a probability — the spreads are assumptions too — but an honest picture of how wide the answer is.
10th percentile$17.76
Median$41.70
90th percentile$88.05
$50.00$100.00$150.00
Half of the simulations land between <b>$27.79</b> and <b>$61.71</b>; one in ten below $17.76, one in ten above $88.05.
Does the long run make sense?
27.0×The terminal value prices the business in year 10 at 27.0 times that year's EBITDA.
Free growthIn year 10 free cash flow is at or above after-tax operating profit, yet the model grows 2.5% forever. Growth needs reinvestment; this assumes it comes for free, which flatters the terminal value.
68%of the value comes from after year 10. The more of it, the more the answer depends on the part nobody can see.
Every Form 4 filed in the last twelve months, read line by line: 6 filings by 6 people. Open-market purchases and sales are counted apart from awards, option exercises and shares withheld for taxes.
Bought on the open market—none in the period
Sold on the open market—none in the period
Under pre-arranged plans—of the sales followed a 10b5-1 plan set months earlier
A Form 4 says what happened, when, how many shares and at what price. It does not say why: a sale can be diversification, a tax bill or a plan fixed months earlier, and an award is pay, not a purchase. Nothing here is a reason to buy or sell anything.
Which large funds report holding it
From the Form 13F of the 28 institutions followed on this site, as of the end of their last reported quarter. A 13F is filed up to 45 days later and shows only long positions in US-listed shares.
Accounts from the company's own SEC filings; lines some companies do not report are shown as a dash rather than estimated. The risk-free rate is the 10-year US Treasury yield. A DCF is a way of making assumptions explicit, not a forecast: it states what the company would be worth if the assumptions held. The scores are screens that point where to look, not verdicts. Nothing here is a recommendation to buy or sell.