PG · Consumer staples(soap, detergents, cleang preparations, perfumes, cosmetics) · 10 years of annual accounts filed with the SEC · latest fiscal year ended 2026-06-30
Procter & Gamble Co reported revenue of $87.0 billion in fiscal 2026, after growing 3.3% a year over the previous 9 years. Its operating margin widened from 21.2% in 2017 to 22.7%, and it earned 18.7% on its invested capital in the latest year. Of the $169.4 billion its operations generated over 10 years, 50.3% went to dividends and 41.0% to buybacks; the share count fell 11.6%. On the accounting screens, it passes 6 of 9 Piotroski tests, its Altman Z'' of 4.69 is in the safe zone and its Beneish M-score is below the -1.78 line; none of the six cross-checks between its statements fires.
Revenue, fiscal 202687.0B+3.3% a year over 9 years
Operating margin22.7%gross margin 50.2%
Return on invested capital18.7%19.3% on average over 5 years
Free cash flow after stock pay14.6B16.8% of revenue
Net debt ÷ EBITDA0.8×net debt 19.4B
Piotroski F-score6/9tests of improvement passed
Is it growing?
Revenue and the operating income it turns into. Growth that does not reach operating income is growth bought with margin.
RevenueOperating income
025.0B50.0B75.0B100.0B
2017Revenue 65.1BOperating income 13.8B
2018Revenue 66.8BOperating income 13.4B
2019Revenue 67.7BOperating income 5.5B
2020Revenue 71.0BOperating income 15.7B
2021Revenue 76.1BOperating income 18.0B
2022Revenue 80.2BOperating income 17.8B
2023Revenue 82.0BOperating income 18.1B
2024Revenue 84.0BOperating income 18.5B
2025Revenue 84.3BOperating income 20.5B
2026Revenue 87.0BOperating income 19.7B
2017201820192020202120222023202420252026
Compound growth a year
3 yrs
5 yrs
9 yrs
Revenue
+2.0%
+2.7%
+3.3%
Operating income
+2.9%
+1.9%
+4.1%
Net income
+3.1%
+2.3%
+0.5%
Earnings per share
+3.9%
+3.8%
+1.9%
Free cash flow per share
+4.1%
+0.9%
+6.9%
Dividend per share
+5.2%
+5.9%
+5.4%
Shares
-0.8%
-1.4%
-1.4%
Falling shares are buybacks: each remaining share owns more of the company.
Does it earn more than its capital costs?
Margins say how much of each sale is kept; return on invested capital says how much the business earns on the money it needs to operate. Growth only creates value when that return is above the cost of the capital.
Return on invested capitalCost of capital today · 8.1%
0.0%5.0%10.0%15.0%20.0%
2017
2018
2019
2020
2021
2022Return on invested capital 20.0%
2023Return on invested capital 19.3%
2024Return on invested capital 18.6%
2025Return on invested capital 19.7%
2026Return on invested capital 18.7%
2017201820192020202120222023202420252026
Economic profit
Economic profit
02.5B5.0B7.5B10.0B
2017
2018
2019
2020
2021
2022Economic profit 8.7B
2023Economic profit 8.5B
2024Economic profit 8.4B
2025Economic profit 9.6B
2026Economic profit 8.9B
2017201820192020202120222023202420252026
(return on capital − cost of capital) × capital invested: the profit left after paying for the money used. Today's cost of capital is applied to every year, since a past one cannot be rebuilt honestly.
Return on equity
29.5%
Return on assets
12.7%
Asset turnover
0.69×
Research & development
2.4% of revenue
Overheads (SG&A)
27.5% of revenue
Is the profit cash, and where does the cash go?
Net income is an accounting opinion; free cash flow is what was left in the bank after investing. Stock-based pay does not leave the bank — shareholders pay it through dilution — so it is shown taken off as well.
Net incomeFree cash flowAfter stock-based pay
05.0B10.0B15.0B20.0B
2017Net income 15.3BFree cash flow 9.4BAfter stock-based pay 9.0B
2018Net income 9.8BFree cash flow 11.2BAfter stock-based pay 10.8B
2019Net income 3.9BFree cash flow 11.9BAfter stock-based pay 11.4B
2020Net income 13.0BFree cash flow 14.3BAfter stock-based pay 13.8B
2021Net income 14.3BFree cash flow 15.6BAfter stock-based pay 15.0B
2022Net income 14.7BFree cash flow 13.6BAfter stock-based pay 13.0B
2023Net income 14.7BFree cash flow 13.8BAfter stock-based pay 13.2B
2024Net income 14.9BFree cash flow 16.5BAfter stock-based pay 16.0B
2025Net income 16.0BFree cash flow 14.0BAfter stock-based pay 13.6B
2026Net income 16.0BFree cash flow 15.1BAfter stock-based pay 14.6B
2017201820192020202120222023202420252026
Where 10 years of operating cash went, 2017–2026
169.4B generated by the business. Each band is its share of that total.
Reinvested in the business 20%34.0B
Acquisitions 4%6.4B
Dividends 50%85.3B
Share buybacks 41%69.5B
More than it generated: funded with cash or new debt -15%-25.8B
Over the same years it paid 5.0B in stock. The share count fell 11.6%. 64.5B of the buybacks went beyond offsetting that dilution.
Per share
Earnings per shareFree cash flow per shareDividend per share
$0.00$2.00$4.00$6.00$8.00
2017Earnings per share $5.59Free cash flow per share $3.42Dividend per share $2.64
2018Earnings per share $3.67Free cash flow per share $4.20Dividend per share $2.75
2019Earnings per share $1.53Free cash flow per share $4.68Dividend per share $2.95
2020Earnings per share $4.96Free cash flow per share $5.46Dividend per share $2.97
2021Earnings per share $5.50Free cash flow per share $5.99Dividend per share $3.18
2022Earnings per share $5.81Free cash flow per share $5.34Dividend per share $3.45
2023Earnings per share $5.90Free cash flow per share $5.55Dividend per share $3.62
2024Earnings per share $6.02Free cash flow per share $6.68Dividend per share $3.77
2025Earnings per share $6.51Free cash flow per share $5.72Dividend per share $4.02
2026Earnings per share $6.62Free cash flow per share $6.25Dividend per share $4.22
2017201820192020202120222023202420252026
Shares outstanding
Diluted shares
2.4B2.5B2.6B2.7B2.8B
2017Diluted shares 2.7B
2018Diluted shares 2.7B
2019Diluted shares 2.5B
2020Diluted shares 2.6B
2021Diluted shares 2.6B
2022Diluted shares 2.5B
2023Diluted shares 2.5B
2024Diluted shares 2.5B
2025Diluted shares 2.5B
2026Diluted shares 2.4B
2017201820192020202120222023202420252026
How strong is the balance sheet?
Debt is not bad in itself; debt the business cannot service in a bad year is. Net debt is debt minus cash, and below zero the company holds more cash than it owes.
Net debt
010.0B20.0B30.0B
2017Net debt 14.1B
2018Net debt 20.1B
2019Net debt 19.5B
2020Net debt 9.9B
2021Net debt 16.4B
2022Net debt 19.3B
2023Net debt 20.1B
2024Net debt 19.6B
2025Net debt 20.8B
2026Net debt 19.4B
2017201820192020202120222023202420252026
Net debt ÷ EBITDA
0.8×
Interest coverage
23× operating income ÷ interest
Current ratio
0.68 current assets ÷ current liabilities
Cash conversion cycle
-43 days collects in 25d, stock 69d, pays in 137d
Three classic screens of the accounts
Each asks a different question of the same statements — is it improving, does it look like a company heading for distress, do the accounts resemble ones that were manipulated. None is a verdict; each shows what moves it.
Piotroski F-score
Is the business improving? Nine yes-or-no tests, this year against last.
6of 9 tests passed
✓ProfitableReturn on assets above zeropassed
✓Cash from operationsOperating cash flow above zeropassed
✕Profitability improvedReturn on assets higher than a year beforefailed
✓Profit backed by cashOperating cash flow above net income (low accruals)passed
✓Less long-term debtLong-term debt as a share of assets fellpassed
✕More liquidCurrent ratio higher than a year beforefailed
✓No new sharesShare count did not growpassed
✕Better gross marginGross margin higher than a year beforefailed
✓Sells more per assetAsset turnover higher than a year beforepassed
Where it misleads: it measures change, not level. An excellent business that stood still for a year scores low; a poor one recovering from a disaster scores high.
Altman Z''-score
Does the balance sheet look like those of companies that went bankrupt?
4.69safe zone
1.12.6
Working capital ÷ assets -0.10 × 6.56-0.65
Retained earnings ÷ assets 1.07 × 3.26+3.50
Operating income ÷ assets 0.16 × 6.72+1.05
Equity ÷ liabilities 0.75 × 1.05+0.79
Where it misleads: buybacks. A company that returns so much cash that its equity turns small or negative sinks the last two ratios without being anywhere near bankruptcy. Banks and insurers do not fit the model at all.
Beneish M-score
Do the accounts resemble those of companies that manipulated their earnings?
-2.63below the -1.78 line
-1.78
Receivables vs sales 0.95+0.87
Gross margin slipping 1.02+0.54
Soft assets 0.98+0.39
Sales growth 1.03+0.92
Slower depreciation 0.96+0.11
Overheads vs sales 1.02-0.18
Profit not in cash -0.03-0.13
Leverage rising 1.00-0.33
Where it misleads: fast growth and acquisitions. Sales growth carries a heavy weight, so a company growing 50% a year scores like a suspect without having done anything. It is a screen from a 1999 study, not an accusation.
Where the statements disagree
Cross-checks between the income statement, the balance sheet and the cash flow for the latest year, each with the benign reading and the worrying one.
None of the six cross-checks fires for the latest year: receivables and inventory move with revenue, profit turns into cash, investment keeps up with depreciation, the tax rate is ordinary and debt is moderate.
What is it worth, under which assumptions?
A company is worth the cash it will generate, brought back to today. This model projects revenue with growth that fades over the years, applies a free cash flow margin, and discounts the result at the cost of capital. Every assumption says where it came from, and all of them can be changed.
Value per share, with these assumptions$102.69discounted at 8.1% a year · 59% of it from after year 10
Type a share price on the left to ask the reverse questions: what growth, what margin or what discount rate that price implies.
What the value implies, in the usual multiples
At this model's value
Price ÷ earnings
15.5×
Enterprise value ÷ EBITDA
11.7×
Enterprise value ÷ revenue
3.1×
Free cash flow yield
5.9%
From cash flows to a value per share
10 years of cash flow, today109.9B
Everything after, today158.2B
The whole business268.1B
Minus net debt-19.4B
What belongs to shareholders248.8B
Divided among 2.4B shares: <strong>$102.69</strong> each.
The projection next to its history
Reported free cash flow after stock pay, then the model's. A projection that looks nothing like the past needs a reason.
ReportedProjected
05.0B10.0B15.0B20.0B
2017Reported 9.0B
2018Reported 10.8B
2019Reported 11.4B
2020Reported 13.8B
2021Reported 15.0B
2022Reported 13.0B
2023Reported 13.2B
2024Reported 16.0B
2025Reported 13.6B
2026Reported 14.6B
2027Projected 14.9B
2028Projected 15.3B
2029Projected 15.6B
2030Projected 16.0B
2031Projected 16.4B
2032Projected 16.8B
2033Projected 17.3B
2034Projected 17.7B
2035Projected 18.1B
2036Projected 18.6B
2017201920212023202520272029203120332035
Year by year
2027
2028
2029
2030
2031
2032
2033
2034
2035
2036
Revenue
89.2B
91.4B
93.7B
96.1B
98.5B
100.9B
103.5B
106.0B
108.7B
111.4B
Growth
2.5%
2.5%
2.5%
2.5%
2.5%
2.5%
2.5%
2.5%
2.5%
2.5%
Cash margin
16.7%
16.7%
16.7%
16.7%
16.7%
16.7%
16.7%
16.7%
16.7%
16.7%
Free cash flow
14.9B
15.3B
15.6B
16.0B
16.4B
16.8B
17.3B
17.7B
18.1B
18.6B
Worth today
13.8B
13.1B
12.4B
11.8B
11.2B
10.6B
10.0B
9.5B
9.0B
8.6B
If the least-known inputs move
Value per share as two inputs change at a time. Neighbouring cells that differ a lot are the conclusion: the value depends on numbers nobody knows to a point.
The discount rate and growth forever
discount ↓ · forever →
1.5%
2.0%
2.5%
3.0%
3.5%
7.0%
106
116
127
141
159
7.5%
97
105
114
125
139
8.1%
89
95
103
112
123
8.6%
82
87
94
101
110
9.0%
76
81
86
92
99
Year-one growth and the final margin
margin ↓ · growth →
-1.5%
0.5%
2.5%
4.5%
6.5%
13.4%
71
78
85
93
102
15.0%
78
86
94
103
112
16.7%
85
94
103
113
123
18.4%
92
102
112
122
134
20.0%
100
110
120
132
144
All the inputs moving at once
5,000 valuations, each with growth, final margin, discount rate and growth forever drawn at random around the values on the left (spreads of 3.0%, 2.5%, 1.0% and 0.5%). Not a probability — the spreads are assumptions too — but an honest picture of how wide the answer is.
10th percentile$73.48
Median$102.92
90th percentile$151.86
$100.00$150.00$200.00
Half of the simulations land between <b>$85.93</b> and <b>$125.17</b>; one in ten below $73.48, one in ten above $151.86.
Does the long run make sense?
11.7×The terminal value prices the business in year 10 at 11.7 times that year's EBITDA.
35%To grow 2.5% forever while reinvesting 7% of its after-tax operating profit, the business must earn 35% on the new capital — it has earned 19% on average over the last five years.
59%of the value comes from after year 10. The more of it, the more the answer depends on the part nobody can see.
Accounts from the company's own SEC filings; lines some companies do not report are shown as a dash rather than estimated. The risk-free rate is the 10-year US Treasury yield. A DCF is a way of making assumptions explicit, not a forecast: it states what the company would be worth if the assumptions held. The scores are screens that point where to look, not verdicts. Nothing here is a recommendation to buy or sell.