DOV · Industrials(construction, mining & materials handling machinery & equip) · 10 years of annual accounts filed with the SEC · latest fiscal year ended 2025-12-31
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Dover Corp reported revenue of $8.1 billion in fiscal 2025, after growing 1.9% a year over the previous 9 years. Its operating margin widened from 11.8% in 2017 to 17.0%, and it earned 10.2% on its invested capital in the latest year. Of the $9.3 billion its operations generated over 10 years, 42.2% went to acquisitions and 31.3% to buybacks; the share count fell 12.7%. On the accounting screens, it passes 6 of 9 Piotroski tests, its Altman Z'' of 6.41 is in the safe zone and its Beneish M-score is below the -1.78 line; 1 of the six cross-checks between its statements fires.
Revenue, fiscal 20258.1B+1.9% a year over 9 years
Operating margin17.0%gross margin 39.8%
Return on invested capital10.2%12.0% on average over 5 years
Free cash flow after stock pay1.1B13.3% of revenue
Net debt ÷ EBITDA0.9×net debt 1.7B
Piotroski F-score6/9tests of improvement passed
Is it growing?
Revenue and the operating income it turns into. Growth that does not reach operating income is growth bought with margin.
RevenueOperating income
02.5B5.0B7.5B10.0B
2017Revenue 6.8BOperating income 806.9M
2018Revenue 7.0BOperating income 843.1M
2019Revenue 7.1BOperating income 974.9M
2020
2020Revenue 6.7BOperating income 933.0M
2021Revenue 7.9BOperating income 1.3B
2022Revenue 7.8BOperating income 1.3B
2023Revenue 7.7BOperating income 1.2B
2024Revenue 7.7BOperating income 1.2B
2025Revenue 8.1BOperating income 1.4B
2017201820192020202020212022202320242025
Compound growth a year
3 yrs
5 yrs
9 yrs
Revenue
+1.0%
+3.9%
+1.9%
Operating income
+2.4%
+8.0%
+6.1%
Net income
+0.9%
+9.9%
+3.4%
Earnings per share
+2.3%
+11.1%
+4.9%
Free cash flow per share
+25.1%
+4.7%
+9.4%
Dividend per share
+0.9%
+1.0%
+1.5%
Shares
-1.4%
-1.1%
-1.5%
Falling shares are buybacks: each remaining share owns more of the company.
Does it earn more than its capital costs?
Margins say how much of each sale is kept; return on invested capital says how much the business earns on the money it needs to operate. Growth only creates value when that return is above the cost of the capital.
Return on invested capitalCost of capital today · 8.4%
0%5%10%15%
2017Return on invested capital 8.9%
2018Return on invested capital 12.0%
2019Return on invested capital 13.0%
2020
2020Return on invested capital 11.7%
2021Return on invested capital 14.1%
2022Return on invested capital 13.4%
2023Return on invested capital 12.7%
2024Return on invested capital 9.7%
2025Return on invested capital 10.2%
2017201820192020202020212022202320242025
Economic profit
Economic profit
0200M400M600M
2017Economic profit 42.3M
2018Economic profit 209.4M
2019Economic profit 280.7M
2020
2020Economic profit 214.4M
2021Economic profit 416.5M
2022Economic profit 398.3M
2023Economic profit 347.6M
2024Economic profit 134.8M
2025Economic profit 199.2M
2017201820192020202020212022202320242025
(return on capital − cost of capital) × capital invested: the profit left after paying for the money used. Today's cost of capital is applied to every year, since a past one cannot be rebuilt honestly.
Return on equity
14.8%
Return on assets
8.2%
Asset turnover
0.60×
Research & development
2.0% of revenue
Overheads (SG&A)
22.8% of revenue
Is the profit cash, and where does the cash go?
Net income is an accounting opinion; free cash flow is what was left in the bank after investing. Stock-based pay does not leave the bank — shareholders pay it through dilution — so it is shown taken off as well.
Net incomeFree cash flowAfter stock-based pay
01B2B3B
2017Net income 811.7MFree cash flow 569.3MAfter stock-based pay 545.3M
2018Net income 570.3MFree cash flow 618.2MAfter stock-based pay 594.5M
2019Net income 677.9MFree cash flow 758.5MAfter stock-based pay 728.8M
2020
2020Net income 683.5MFree cash flow 939.1MAfter stock-based pay 914.1M
2021Net income 1.1BFree cash flow 944.4MAfter stock-based pay 913.3M
2022Net income 1.1BFree cash flow 594.6MAfter stock-based pay 564.6M
2023Net income 1.1BFree cash flow 1.2BAfter stock-based pay 1.1B
2024Net income 2.7BFree cash flow 920.3MAfter stock-based pay 879.9M
2025Net income 1.1BFree cash flow 1.1BAfter stock-based pay 1.1B
2017201820192020202020212022202320242025
Where 10 years of operating cash went, 2017–2025
9.3B generated by the business. Each band is its share of that total.
Reinvested in the business 18%1.6B
Acquisitions 42%3.9B
Dividends 28%2.6B
Share buybacks 31%2.9B
More than it generated: funded with cash or new debt -19%-1.7B
Over the same years it paid 278.8M in stock. The share count fell 12.7%. 2.6B of the buybacks went beyond offsetting that dilution.
Per share
Earnings per shareFree cash flow per shareDividend per share
$0$5$10$15$20
2017Earnings per share $5.15Free cash flow per share $3.61Dividend per share $1.80
2018Earnings per share $3.75Free cash flow per share $4.06Dividend per share $1.86
2019Earnings per share $4.61Free cash flow per share $5.16Dividend per share $1.92
2020
2020Earnings per share $4.70Free cash flow per share $6.46Dividend per share $1.96
2021Earnings per share $7.74Free cash flow per share $6.50Dividend per share $1.97
2022Earnings per share $7.42Free cash flow per share $4.14Dividend per share $2.00
2023Earnings per share $7.52Free cash flow per share $8.20Dividend per share $2.02
2024Earnings per share $19.45Free cash flow per share $6.64Dividend per share $2.04
2025Earnings per share $7.94Free cash flow per share $8.11Dividend per share $2.05
2017201820192020202020212022202320242025
Shares outstanding
Diluted shares
135M140M145M150M155M160M
2017Diluted shares 157.7M
2018Diluted shares 152.1M
2019Diluted shares 147.0M
2020
2020Diluted shares 145.4M
2021Diluted shares 145.3M
2022Diluted shares 143.6M
2023Diluted shares 140.6M
2024Diluted shares 138.7M
2025Diluted shares 137.8M
2017201820192020202020212022202320242025
Debt and liquidity
Debt is not bad in itself; debt the business cannot service in a bad year is. Net debt is debt minus cash, and below zero the company holds more cash than it owes.
Net debt
01B2B3B4B
2017Net debt 2.6B
2018Net debt 2.5B
2019Net debt 2.6B
2020
2020Net debt 2.6B
2021Net debt 2.7B
2022Net debt 3.3B
2023Net debt 2.6B
2024Net debt 1.1B
2025Net debt 1.7B
2017201820192020202020212022202320242025
Net debt ÷ EBITDA
0.9×
Interest coverage
13× operating income ÷ interest
Current ratio
1.79 current assets ÷ current liabilities
Cash conversion cycle
92 days collects in 62d, stock 95d, pays in 66d
Three classic screens of the accounts
Each asks a different question of the same statements — is it improving, does it look like a company heading for distress, do the accounts resemble ones that were manipulated. None is a verdict; each shows what moves it.
Piotroski F-score
Is the business improving? Nine yes-or-no tests, this year against last.
6of 9 tests passed
✓ProfitableReturn on assets above zeropassed
✓Cash from operationsOperating cash flow above zeropassed
✕Profitability improvedReturn on assets higher than a year beforefailed
✓Profit backed by cashOperating cash flow above net income (low accruals)passed
✓Less long-term debtLong-term debt as a share of assets fellpassed
✕More liquidCurrent ratio higher than a year beforefailed
✓No new sharesShare count did not growpassed
✓Better gross marginGross margin higher than a year beforepassed
✕Sells more per assetAsset turnover higher than a year beforefailed
Where it misleads: it measures change, not level. An excellent business that stood still for a year scores low; a poor one recovering from a disaster scores high.
Altman Z''-score
Does the balance sheet look like those of companies that went bankrupt?
6.41safe zone
1.12.6
Working capital ÷ assets 0.15 × 6.56+0.97
Retained earnings ÷ assets 1.06 × 3.26+3.45
Operating income ÷ assets 0.10 × 6.72+0.69
Equity ÷ liabilities 1.23 × 1.05+1.29
Where it misleads: buybacks. A company that returns so much cash that its equity turns small or negative sinks the last two ratios without being anywhere near bankruptcy. Banks and insurers do not fit the model at all.
Beneish M-score
Do the accounts resemble those of companies that manipulated their earnings?
-2.57below the -1.78 line
-1.78
Receivables vs sales 0.97+0.89
Gross margin slipping 0.96+0.51
Soft assets 1.03+0.42
Sales growth 1.04+0.93
Slower depreciation 1.01+0.12
Overheads vs sales 1.01-0.17
Profit not in cash -0.02-0.09
Leverage rising 1.01-0.33
Where it misleads: fast growth and acquisitions. Sales growth carries a heavy weight, so a company growing 50% a year scores like a suspect without having done anything. It is a screen from a 1999 study, not an accusation.
Where the statements disagree
Cross-checks between the income statement, the balance sheet and the cash flow for the latest year, each with the benign reading and the worrying one.
Capital spending (220M) is well below depreciation (380M).
Benign
Mature assets, or a business that has become less capital-intensive.
Worrying
Under-investing: today's profit is being held up by consuming tomorrow's capacity.
What is it worth, under which assumptions?
A company is worth the cash it will generate, brought back to today. This model projects revenue with growth that fades over the years, applies a free cash flow margin, and discounts the result at the cost of capital. Every assumption says where it came from, and all of them can be changed.
Value per share, with these assumptions$149.22discounted at 8.4% a year · 58% of it from after year 10
Type a share price on the left to ask the reverse questions: what growth, what margin or what discount rate that price implies.
What the value implies, in the usual multiples
At this model's value
Price ÷ earnings
18.8×
Enterprise value ÷ EBITDA
12.7×
Enterprise value ÷ revenue
2.7×
Free cash flow yield
5.2%
From cash flows to a value per share
10 years of cash flow, today9.4B
Everything after, today12.9B
The whole business22.2B
Minus net debt-1.7B
What belongs to shareholders20.6B
Divided among 137.8M shares: <strong>$149.22</strong> each.
The projection next to its history
Reported free cash flow after stock pay, then the model's. A projection that looks nothing like the past needs a reason.
ReportedProjected
00.5B1.0B1.5B2.0B
2017Reported 545.3M
2018Reported 594.5M
2019Reported 728.8M
2020
2020Reported 914.1M
2021Reported 913.3M
2022Reported 564.6M
2023Reported 1.1B
2024Reported 879.9M
2025Reported 1.1B
2026Projected 1.2B
2027Projected 1.3B
2028Projected 1.3B
2029Projected 1.4B
2030Projected 1.4B
2031Projected 1.5B
2032Projected 1.5B
2033Projected 1.6B
2034Projected 1.6B
2035Projected 1.6B
2017201920202022202420262028203020322034
Year by year
2026
2027
2028
2029
2030
2031
2032
2033
2034
2035
Revenue
8.4B
8.7B
9.1B
9.4B
9.7B
10.0B
10.3B
10.6B
10.9B
11.1B
Growth
4.0%
3.8%
3.7%
3.5%
3.3%
3.2%
3.0%
2.8%
2.7%
2.5%
Cash margin
14.7%
14.7%
14.7%
14.7%
14.7%
14.7%
14.7%
14.7%
14.7%
14.7%
Free cash flow
1.2B
1.3B
1.3B
1.4B
1.4B
1.5B
1.5B
1.6B
1.6B
1.6B
Worth today
1.1B
1.1B
1.0B
1.0B
955.4M
909.6M
864.6M
820.5M
777.4M
735.3M
If the least-known inputs move
Value per share as two inputs change at a time. Neighbouring cells that differ a lot are the conclusion: the value depends on numbers nobody knows to a point.
The discount rate and growth forever
discount ↓ · forever →
1.5%
2.0%
2.5%
3.0%
3.5%
7.4%
155
167
183
202
225
7.9%
141
152
164
179
198
8.4%
130
139
149
161
176
8.9%
120
128
137
147
159
9.4%
112
118
126
134
144
Year-one growth and the final margin
margin ↓ · growth →
0.0%
2.0%
4.0%
6.0%
8.0%
11.8%
103
113
124
135
148
13.3%
113
124
136
149
163
14.7%
124
136
149
163
179
16.2%
135
148
162
177
194
17.7%
145
159
175
191
209
All the inputs moving at once
5,000 valuations, each with growth, final margin, discount rate and growth forever drawn at random around the values on the left (spreads of 3.0%, 2.2%, 1.0% and 0.5%). Not a probability — the spreads are assumptions too — but an honest picture of how wide the answer is.
10th percentile$107.55
Median$149.50
90th percentile$217.44
$100.00$200.00$300.00
Half of the simulations land between <b>$125.27</b> and <b>$180.37</b>; one in ten below $107.55, one in ten above $217.44.
Does the long run make sense?
11.9×The terminal value prices the business in year 10 at 11.9 times that year's EBITDA.
Free growthIn year 10 free cash flow is at or above after-tax operating profit, yet the model grows 2.5% forever. Growth needs reinvestment; this assumes it comes for free, which flatters the terminal value.
58%of the value comes from after year 10. The more of it, the more the answer depends on the part nobody can see.
Every Form 4 filed in the last twelve months, read line by line: 6 filings by 5 people. Open-market purchases and sales are counted apart from awards, option exercises and shares withheld for taxes.
Bought on the open market—none in the period
Sold on the open market—none in the period
Under pre-arranged plans—of the sales followed a 10b5-1 plan set months earlier
A Form 4 says what happened, when, how many shares and at what price. It does not say why: a sale can be diversification, a tax bill or a plan fixed months earlier, and an award is pay, not a purchase. Nothing here is a reason to buy or sell anything.
Which large funds report holding it
From the Form 13F of the 28 institutions followed on this site, as of the end of their last reported quarter. A 13F is filed up to 45 days later and shows only long positions in US-listed shares.
Accounts from the company's own SEC filings; lines some companies do not report are shown as a dash rather than estimated. The risk-free rate is the 10-year US Treasury yield. A DCF is a way of making assumptions explicit, not a forecast: it states what the company would be worth if the assumptions held. The scores are screens that point where to look, not verdicts. Nothing here is a recommendation to buy or sell.
