DKS · Consumer discretionary(retail-miscellaneous shopping goods stores) · 10 years of annual accounts filed with the SEC · latest fiscal year ended 2026-01-31
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DICK'S Sporting Goods, Inc. reported revenue of $17.2 billion in fiscal 2026, after growing 9.0% a year over the previous 9 years. Its operating margin held steady at about 6.4% from 2017. Of the $11.1 billion its operations generated over 10 years, 42.7% went back into the business and 36.2% to buybacks; the share count fell 24.1%. On the accounting screens, it passes 3 of 8 Piotroski tests, its Altman Z'' of 3.12 is in the safe zone and its Beneish M-score is below the -1.78 line; none of the six cross-checks between its statements fires.
Revenue, fiscal 202617.2B+9.0% a year over 9 years
Operating margin6.4%gross margin 32.9%
Return on invested capital—
Free cash flow after stock pay276.5M1.6% of revenue
Net debt ÷ EBITDA—net debt —
Piotroski F-score3/8tests of improvement passed
Is it growing?
Revenue and the operating income it turns into. Growth that does not reach operating income is growth bought with margin.
RevenueOperating income
05B10B15B20B
2017Revenue 7.9BOperating income 449.9M
2018Revenue 8.6BOperating income 477.6M
2019Revenue 8.4BOperating income 444.7M
2020Revenue 8.8BOperating income 375.6M
2021Revenue 9.6BOperating income 741.5M
2022Revenue 12.3BOperating income 2.0B
2023Revenue 12.4BOperating income 1.5B
2024Revenue 13.0BOperating income 1.3B
2025Revenue 13.4BOperating income 1.5B
2026Revenue 17.2BOperating income 1.1B
2017201820192020202120222023202420252026
Compound growth a year
3 yrs
5 yrs
9 yrs
Revenue
+11.7%
+12.4%
+9.0%
Operating income
-9.2%
+8.1%
+10.4%
Free cash flow per share
-5.8%
-20.0%
+4.8%
Dividend per share
+43.6%
+33.2%
+26.0%
Shares
-5.0%
-1.7%
-3.0%
Falling shares are buybacks: each remaining share owns more of the company.
Does it earn more than its capital costs?
Margins say how much of each sale is kept; return on invested capital says how much the business earns on the money it needs to operate. Growth only creates value when that return is above the cost of the capital.
Return on invested capitalCost of capital today · 10.2%
0%5%10%15%20%
2017
2018
2019Return on invested capital 16.8%
2020Return on invested capital 15.8%
2021
2022
2023
2024
2025
2026
2017201820192020202120222023202420252026
Economic profit
Economic profit
050M100M150M
2017
2018
2019Economic profit 128.6M
2020Economic profit 96.7M
2021
2022
2023
2024
2025
2026
2017201820192020202120222023202420252026
(return on capital − cost of capital) × capital invested: the profit left after paying for the money used. Today's cost of capital is applied to every year, since a past one cannot be rebuilt honestly.
Return on equity
15.3%
Return on assets
4.9%
Asset turnover
0.99×
Overheads (SG&A)
25.2% of revenue
Is the profit cash, and where does the cash go?
Net income is an accounting opinion; free cash flow is what was left in the bank after investing. Stock-based pay does not leave the bank — shareholders pay it through dilution — so it is shown taken off as well.
2024Net income 1.0BFree cash flow 939.9MAfter stock-based pay 882.6M
2025Net income 1.2BFree cash flow 509.3MAfter stock-based pay 438.3M
2026Net income 849.2MFree cash flow 400.2MAfter stock-based pay 276.5M
2017201820192020202120222023202420252026
Where 10 years of operating cash went, 2017–2026
11.1B generated by the business. Each band is its share of that total.
Reinvested in the business 43%4.7B
Acquisitions 3%384.8M
Dividends 21%2.3B
Share buybacks 36%4.0B
More than it generated: funded with cash or new debt -3%-366.2M
Over the same years it paid 560.8M in stock. The share count fell 24.1%. 3.5B of the buybacks went beyond offsetting that dilution.
Per share
Earnings per shareFree cash flow per shareDividend per share
$0$5$10$15
2017Free cash flow per share $3.09Dividend per share $0.61
2018Free cash flow per share $2.53Dividend per share $0.68
2019Free cash flow per share $5.21Dividend per share $0.90
2020Free cash flow per share $2.10Dividend per share $1.10
2021Free cash flow per share $14.34Dividend per share $1.16
2022Free cash flow per share $11.94Dividend per share $5.50
2023Free cash flow per share $5.62Dividend per share $1.64
2024Earnings per share $12.18Free cash flow per share $10.94Dividend per share $4.09
2025Earnings per share $14.05Free cash flow per share $6.14Dividend per share $4.36
2026Earnings per share $9.97Free cash flow per share $4.70Dividend per share $4.86
2017201820192020202120222023202420252026
Shares outstanding
Diluted shares
80M90M100M110M120M
2017Diluted shares 112.2M
2018Diluted shares 107.6M
2019Diluted shares 98.8M
2020Diluted shares 89.1M
2021Diluted shares 92.6M
2022Diluted shares 109.6M
2023Diluted shares 99.3M
2024Diluted shares 85.9M
2025Diluted shares 82.9M
2026Diluted shares 85.1M
2017201820192020202120222023202420252026
Debt and liquidity
Debt is not bad in itself; debt the business cannot service in a bad year is. Net debt is debt minus cash, and below zero the company holds more cash than it owes.
Net debt
-80M-60M-40M-20M0
2017
2018
2019Net debt -57.6M
2020Net debt -69.3M
2021
2022
2023
2024
2025
2026
2017201820192020202120222023202420252026
Net debt ÷ EBITDA
—
Interest coverage
17× operating income ÷ interest
Current ratio
1.53 current assets ÷ current liabilities
Cash conversion cycle
—
Three classic screens of the accounts
Each asks a different question of the same statements — is it improving, does it look like a company heading for distress, do the accounts resemble ones that were manipulated. None is a verdict; each shows what moves it.
Piotroski F-score
Is the business improving? Nine yes-or-no tests, this year against last.
3of 8 tests passed
✓ProfitableReturn on assets above zeropassed
✓Cash from operationsOperating cash flow above zeropassed
✕Profitability improvedReturn on assets higher than a year beforefailed
✓Profit backed by cashOperating cash flow above net income (low accruals)passed
–Less long-term debtLong-term debt as a share of assets fell — not reportedno data
✕More liquidCurrent ratio higher than a year beforefailed
✕No new sharesShare count did not growfailed
✕Better gross marginGross margin higher than a year beforefailed
✕Sells more per assetAsset turnover higher than a year beforefailed
Where it misleads: it measures change, not level. An excellent business that stood still for a year scores low; a poor one recovering from a disaster scores high.
Altman Z''-score
Does the balance sheet look like those of companies that went bankrupt?
3.12safe zone
1.12.6
Working capital ÷ assets 0.14 × 6.56+0.93
Retained earnings ÷ assets 0.39 × 3.26+1.28
Operating income ÷ assets 0.06 × 6.72+0.42
Equity ÷ liabilities 0.47 × 1.05+0.49
Where it misleads: buybacks. A company that returns so much cash that its equity turns small or negative sinks the last two ratios without being anywhere near bankruptcy. Banks and insurers do not fit the model at all.
Beneish M-score
Do the accounts resemble those of companies that manipulated their earnings?
-2.15below the -1.78 line
-1.78
Receivables vs sales 1.00 (not reported, set to 1)+0.92
Gross margin slipping 1.09+0.58
Soft assets 1.37+0.55
Sales growth 1.28+1.14
Slower depreciation 1.33+0.15
Overheads vs sales 1.03-0.18
Profit not in cash -0.04-0.18
Leverage rising 0.91-0.30
Where it misleads: fast growth and acquisitions. Sales growth carries a heavy weight, so a company growing 50% a year scores like a suspect without having done anything. It is a screen from a 1999 study, not an accusation.
Where the statements disagree
Cross-checks between the income statement, the balance sheet and the cash flow for the latest year, each with the benign reading and the worrying one.
None of the six cross-checks fires for the latest year: receivables and inventory move with revenue, profit turns into cash, investment keeps up with depreciation, the tax rate is ordinary and debt is moderate.
What is it worth, under which assumptions?
A company is worth the cash it will generate, brought back to today. This model projects revenue with growth that fades over the years, applies a free cash flow margin, and discounts the result at the cost of capital. Every assumption says where it came from, and all of them can be changed.
Value per share, with these assumptions$15.71discounted at 10.2% a year · 52% of it from after year 10
Type a share price on the left to ask the reverse questions: what growth, what margin or what discount rate that price implies.
What the value implies, in the usual multiples
At this model's value
Price ÷ earnings
1.6×
Enterprise value ÷ EBITDA
0.8×
Enterprise value ÷ revenue
0.1×
Free cash flow yield
20.7%
From cash flows to a value per share
10 years of cash flow, today643.4M
Everything after, today694.2M
The whole business1.3B
Minus net debt-0
What belongs to shareholders1.3B
Divided among 85.1M shares: <strong>$15.71</strong> each.
The projection next to its history
Reported free cash flow after stock pay, then the model's. A projection that looks nothing like the past needs a reason.
ReportedProjected
00.5B1.0B1.5B
2017Reported 313.5M
2018Reported 235.7M
2019Reported 472.6M
2020Reported 143.7M
2021Reported 1.3B
2022Reported 1.3B
2023Reported 507.2M
2024Reported 882.6M
2025Reported 438.3M
2026Reported 276.5M
2027Projected 76.2M
2028Projected 84.9M
2029Projected 93.6M
2030Projected 102.2M
2031Projected 110.4M
2032Projected 118.1M
2033Projected 124.9M
2034Projected 130.8M
2035Projected 135.6M
2036Projected 139.0M
2017201920212023202520272029203120332035
Year by year
2027
2028
2029
2030
2031
2032
2033
2034
2035
2036
Revenue
19.4B
21.6B
23.8B
26.0B
28.1B
30.0B
31.8B
33.3B
34.5B
35.3B
Growth
12.5%
11.4%
10.3%
9.2%
8.1%
6.9%
5.8%
4.7%
3.6%
2.5%
Cash margin
0.4%
0.4%
0.4%
0.4%
0.4%
0.4%
0.4%
0.4%
0.4%
0.4%
Free cash flow
76.2M
84.9M
93.6M
102.2M
110.4M
118.1M
124.9M
130.8M
135.6M
139.0M
Worth today
69.1M
69.8M
69.8M
69.2M
67.8M
65.8M
63.1M
60.0M
56.4M
52.4M
If the least-known inputs move
Value per share as two inputs change at a time. Neighbouring cells that differ a lot are the conclusion: the value depends on numbers nobody knows to a point.
The discount rate and growth forever
discount ↓ · forever →
1.5%
2.0%
2.5%
3.0%
3.5%
9.2%
16
17
18
19
21
9.7%
15
16
17
18
19
10.2%
14
15
16
17
18
10.7%
13
14
15
15
16
11.2%
13
13
14
14
15
Year-one growth and the final margin
margin ↓ · growth →
8.5%
10.5%
12.5%
14.5%
16.5%
0.3%
11
12
13
14
15
0.4%
12
13
14
16
17
0.4%
13
15
16
17
18
0.4%
14
16
17
18
20
0.5%
15
17
18
20
21
All the inputs moving at once
5,000 valuations, each with growth, final margin, discount rate and growth forever drawn at random around the values on the left (spreads of 3.0%, 2.0%, 1.0% and 0.5%). Not a probability — the spreads are assumptions too — but an honest picture of how wide the answer is.
10th percentile$-63.82
Median$16.27
90th percentile$96.45
$-100.00$0.00$100.00
Half of the simulations land between <b>$-24.17</b> and <b>$58.38</b>; one in ten below $-63.82, one in ten above $96.45.
Does the long run make sense?
0.6×The terminal value prices the business in year 10 at 0.6 times that year's EBITDA.
3%To grow 2.5% forever while reinvesting 92% of its after-tax operating profit, the business must earn 3% on the new capital.
52%of the value comes from after year 10. The more of it, the more the answer depends on the part nobody can see.
What lenders charge, after the tax saving on interest: 6.74% × (1 − 25.6%) = <strong>5.01%</strong>.
Weighted by how much of each the company uses (book value (no price given)): <strong>10.24%</strong>, the rate every future cash flow is discounted at.
What it has filed lately
The last twelve months at the SEC, most important first: annual and quarterly reports, events, large holders and insiders.
Every Form 4 filed in the last twelve months, read line by line: 6 filings by 5 people. Open-market purchases and sales are counted apart from awards, option exercises and shares withheld for taxes.
Bought on the open market$2.7M6 purchase(s) by 4 insider(s)
Sold on the open market—none in the period
Under pre-arranged plans—of the sales followed a 10b5-1 plan set months earlier
A Form 4 says what happened, when, how many shares and at what price. It does not say why: a sale can be diversification, a tax bill or a plan fixed months earlier, and an award is pay, not a purchase. Nothing here is a reason to buy or sell anything.
Which large funds report holding it
From the Form 13F of the 28 institutions followed on this site, as of the end of their last reported quarter. A 13F is filed up to 45 days later and shows only long positions in US-listed shares.
Accounts from the company's own SEC filings; lines some companies do not report are shown as a dash rather than estimated. The risk-free rate is the 10-year US Treasury yield. A DCF is a way of making assumptions explicit, not a forecast: it states what the company would be worth if the assumptions held. The scores are screens that point where to look, not verdicts. Nothing here is a recommendation to buy or sell.