CW · Industrials(misc industrial & commercial machinery & equipment) · 10 years of annual accounts filed with the SEC · latest fiscal year ended 2025-12-31
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Curtiss Wright Corp reported revenue of $3.5 billion in fiscal 2025, after growing 5.8% a year over the previous 9 years. Its operating margin widened from 14.1% in 2016 to 18.1%, and it earned 14.2% on its invested capital in the latest year. Of the $4.1 billion its operations generated over 10 years, 42.7% went to buybacks and 28.5% to acquisitions; the share count fell 16.5%. On the accounting screens, it passes 8 of 9 Piotroski tests, its Altman Z'' of 5.27 is in the safe zone and its Beneish M-score is below the -1.78 line; none of the six cross-checks between its statements fires.
Revenue, fiscal 20253.5B+5.8% a year over 9 years
Operating margin18.1%gross margin 37.2%
Return on invested capital14.2%11.3% on average over 5 years
Free cash flow after stock pay532.2M15.2% of revenue
Net debt ÷ EBITDA0.8×net debt 586.5M
Piotroski F-score8/9tests of improvement passed
Is it growing?
Revenue and the operating income it turns into. Growth that does not reach operating income is growth bought with margin.
RevenueOperating income
01.0B2.0B3.0B4.0B
2016Revenue 2.1BOperating income 296.5M
2017Revenue 2.3BOperating income 325.1M
2018Revenue 2.4BOperating income 373.6M
2019Revenue 2.5BOperating income 404.0M
2020Revenue 2.4BOperating income 288.8M
2021Revenue 2.5BOperating income 377.1M
2022Revenue 2.6BOperating income 423.4M
2023Revenue 2.8BOperating income 484.6M
2024Revenue 3.1BOperating income 528.6M
2025Revenue 3.5BOperating income 633.5M
2016201720182019202020212022202320242025
Compound growth a year
3 yrs
5 yrs
9 yrs
Revenue
+11.0%
+7.9%
+5.8%
Operating income
+14.4%
+17.0%
+8.8%
Net income
+18.0%
+19.2%
+11.1%
Earnings per share
+19.1%
+21.8%
+13.4%
Free cash flow per share
+30.4%
+23.7%
+6.5%
Dividend per share
+7.4%
+6.6%
+6.8%
Shares
-0.9%
-2.2%
-2.0%
Falling shares are buybacks: each remaining share owns more of the company.
Does it earn more than its capital costs?
Margins say how much of each sale is kept; return on invested capital says how much the business earns on the money it needs to operate. Growth only creates value when that return is above the cost of the capital.
Return on invested capitalCost of capital today · 8.5%
0.0%5.0%10.0%15.0%
2016Return on invested capital 9.3%
2017Return on invested capital 10.0%
2018Return on invested capital 12.6%
2019Return on invested capital 12.4%
2020Return on invested capital 7.8%
2021Return on invested capital 9.9%
2022Return on invested capital 9.9%
2023Return on invested capital 11.0%
2024Return on invested capital 11.7%
2025Return on invested capital 14.2%
2016201720182019202020212022202320242025
Economic profit
Economic profit
-100.0M0100.0M200.0M
2016Economic profit 18.0M
2017Economic profit 34.4M
2018Economic profit 94.6M
2019Economic profit 98.2M
2020Economic profit -20.4M
2021Economic profit 39.9M
2022Economic profit 45.6M
2023Economic profit 84.2M
2024Economic profit 113.1M
2025Economic profit 198.4M
2016201720182019202020212022202320242025
(return on capital − cost of capital) × capital invested: the profit left after paying for the money used. Today's cost of capital is applied to every year, since a past one cannot be rebuilt honestly.
Return on equity
19.1%
Return on assets
9.3%
Asset turnover
0.67×
Research & development
2.7% of revenue
Overheads (SG&A)
11.4% of revenue
Is the profit cash, and where does the cash go?
Net income is an accounting opinion; free cash flow is what was left in the bank after investing. Stock-based pay does not leave the bank — shareholders pay it through dilution — so it is shown taken off as well.
Net incomeFree cash flowAfter stock-based pay
0200.0M400.0M600.0M
2016Net income 187.3MFree cash flow 376.4MAfter stock-based pay 366.9M
2017Net income 214.9MFree cash flow 336.0MAfter stock-based pay 324.4M
2018Net income 275.7MFree cash flow 282.9MAfter stock-based pay 268.8M
2019Net income 307.6MFree cash flow 351.7MAfter stock-based pay 338.0M
2020Net income 201.4MFree cash flow 213.7MAfter stock-based pay 199.2M
2021Net income 262.8MFree cash flow 346.6MAfter stock-based pay 333.1M
2022Net income 294.3MFree cash flow 256.6MAfter stock-based pay 241.2M
2023Net income 354.5MFree cash flow 403.4MAfter stock-based pay 386.6M
2024Net income 405.0MFree cash flow 483.3MAfter stock-based pay 464.4M
2025Net income 484.2MFree cash flow 553.7MAfter stock-based pay 532.2M
2016201720182019202020212022202320242025
Where 10 years of operating cash went, 2016–2025
4.1B generated by the business. Each band is its share of that total.
Reinvested in the business 13%544.8M
Acquisitions 28%1.2B
Dividends 7%284.6M
Share buybacks 43%1.8B
Kept, or used to pay down debt 9%366.7M
Over the same years it paid 149.3M in stock. The share count fell 16.5%. 1.6B of the buybacks went beyond offsetting that dilution.
Per share
Earnings per shareFree cash flow per shareDividend per share
$0.00$5.00$10.00$15.00
2016Earnings per share $4.16Free cash flow per share $8.36Dividend per share $0.51
2017Earnings per share $4.80Free cash flow per share $7.51Dividend per share $0.55
2018Earnings per share $6.22Free cash flow per share $6.38Dividend per share $0.59
2019Earnings per share $7.15Free cash flow per share $8.17Dividend per share $0.66
2020Earnings per share $4.80Free cash flow per share $5.09Dividend per share $0.67
2021Earnings per share $6.47Free cash flow per share $8.54Dividend per share $0.71
2022Earnings per share $7.62Free cash flow per share $6.64Dividend per share $0.74
2023Earnings per share $9.20Free cash flow per share $10.47Dividend per share $0.79
2024Earnings per share $10.55Free cash flow per share $12.59Dividend per share $0.82
2025Earnings per share $12.87Free cash flow per share $14.71Dividend per share $0.92
2016201720182019202020212022202320242025
Shares outstanding
Diluted shares
36.0M38.0M40.0M42.0M44.0M46.0M
2016Diluted shares 45.0M
2017Diluted shares 44.8M
2018Diluted shares 44.3M
2019Diluted shares 43.0M
2020Diluted shares 42.0M
2021Diluted shares 40.6M
2022Diluted shares 38.6M
2023Diluted shares 38.5M
2024Diluted shares 38.4M
2025Diluted shares 37.6M
2016201720182019202020212022202320242025
How strong is the balance sheet?
Debt is not bad in itself; debt the business cannot service in a bad year is. Net debt is debt minus cash, and below zero the company holds more cash than it owes.
Net debt
0250.0M500.0M750.0M1.0B
2016Net debt 412.4M
2017Net debt 339.0M
2018Net debt 486.5M
2019Net debt 369.6M
2020Net debt 860.0M
2021Net debt 879.6M
2022Net debt 997.4M
2023Net debt 643.5M
2024Net debt 663.9M
2025Net debt 586.5M
2016201720182019202020212022202320242025
Net debt ÷ EBITDA
0.8×
Interest coverage
15× operating income ÷ interest
Current ratio
1.44 current assets ÷ current liabilities
Cash conversion cycle
148 days collects in 97d, stock 102d, pays in 52d
Three classic screens of the accounts
Each asks a different question of the same statements — is it improving, does it look like a company heading for distress, do the accounts resemble ones that were manipulated. None is a verdict; each shows what moves it.
Piotroski F-score
Is the business improving? Nine yes-or-no tests, this year against last.
8of 9 tests passed
✓ProfitableReturn on assets above zeropassed
✓Cash from operationsOperating cash flow above zeropassed
✓Profitability improvedReturn on assets higher than a year beforepassed
✓Profit backed by cashOperating cash flow above net income (low accruals)passed
✓Less long-term debtLong-term debt as a share of assets fellpassed
✕More liquidCurrent ratio higher than a year beforefailed
✓No new sharesShare count did not growpassed
✓Better gross marginGross margin higher than a year beforepassed
✓Sells more per assetAsset turnover higher than a year beforepassed
Where it misleads: it measures change, not level. An excellent business that stood still for a year scores low; a poor one recovering from a disaster scores high.
Altman Z''-score
Does the balance sheet look like those of companies that went bankrupt?
5.27safe zone
1.12.6
Working capital ÷ assets 0.12 × 6.56+0.77
Retained earnings ÷ assets 0.83 × 3.26+2.69
Operating income ÷ assets 0.12 × 6.72+0.82
Equity ÷ liabilities 0.94 × 1.05+0.99
Where it misleads: buybacks. A company that returns so much cash that its equity turns small or negative sinks the last two ratios without being anywhere near bankruptcy. Banks and insurers do not fit the model at all.
Beneish M-score
Do the accounts resemble those of companies that manipulated their earnings?
-2.53below the -1.78 line
-1.78
Receivables vs sales 1.00+0.92
Gross margin slipping 0.99+0.52
Soft assets 0.96+0.39
Sales growth 1.12+1.00
Slower depreciation 0.98+0.11
Overheads vs sales 0.95-0.16
Profit not in cash -0.03-0.14
Leverage rising 1.01-0.33
Where it misleads: fast growth and acquisitions. Sales growth carries a heavy weight, so a company growing 50% a year scores like a suspect without having done anything. It is a screen from a 1999 study, not an accusation.
Where the statements disagree
Cross-checks between the income statement, the balance sheet and the cash flow for the latest year, each with the benign reading and the worrying one.
None of the six cross-checks fires for the latest year: receivables and inventory move with revenue, profit turns into cash, investment keeps up with depreciation, the tax rate is ordinary and debt is moderate.
What is it worth, under which assumptions?
A company is worth the cash it will generate, brought back to today. This model projects revenue with growth that fades over the years, applies a free cash flow margin, and discounts the result at the cost of capital. Every assumption says where it came from, and all of them can be changed.
Value per share, with these assumptions$211.81discounted at 8.5% a year · 59% of it from after year 10
Type a share price on the left to ask the reverse questions: what growth, what margin or what discount rate that price implies.
What the value implies, in the usual multiples
At this model's value
Price ÷ earnings
16.5×
Enterprise value ÷ EBITDA
11.3×
Enterprise value ÷ revenue
2.4×
Free cash flow yield
6.7%
From cash flows to a value per share
10 years of cash flow, today3.5B
Everything after, today5.0B
The whole business8.6B
Minus net debt-586.5M
What belongs to shareholders8.0B
Divided among 37.6M shares: <strong>$211.81</strong> each.
The projection next to its history
Reported free cash flow after stock pay, then the model's. A projection that looks nothing like the past needs a reason.
ReportedProjected
0200.0M400.0M600.0M800.0M
2016Reported 366.9M
2017Reported 324.4M
2018Reported 268.8M
2019Reported 338.0M
2020Reported 199.2M
2021Reported 333.1M
2022Reported 241.2M
2023Reported 386.6M
2024Reported 464.4M
2025Reported 532.2M
2026Projected 429.0M
2027Projected 460.7M
2028Projected 491.9M
2029Projected 522.3M
2030Projected 551.3M
2031Projected 578.5M
2032Projected 603.6M
2033Projected 626.1M
2034Projected 645.5M
2035Projected 661.7M
2016201820202022202420262028203020322034
Year by year
2026
2027
2028
2029
2030
2031
2032
2033
2034
2035
Revenue
3.8B
4.1B
4.3B
4.6B
4.9B
5.1B
5.3B
5.5B
5.7B
5.8B
Growth
8.0%
7.4%
6.8%
6.2%
5.6%
4.9%
4.3%
3.7%
3.1%
2.5%
Cash margin
11.4%
11.4%
11.4%
11.4%
11.4%
11.4%
11.4%
11.4%
11.4%
11.4%
Free cash flow
429.0M
460.7M
491.9M
522.3M
551.3M
578.5M
603.6M
626.1M
645.5M
661.7M
Worth today
395.4M
391.4M
385.3M
377.0M
366.8M
354.8M
341.3M
326.3M
310.1M
293.0M
If the least-known inputs move
Value per share as two inputs change at a time. Neighbouring cells that differ a lot are the conclusion: the value depends on numbers nobody knows to a point.
The discount rate and growth forever
discount ↓ · forever →
1.5%
2.0%
2.5%
3.0%
3.5%
7.5%
220
237
259
285
317
8.0%
201
216
233
254
280
8.5%
185
197
212
229
250
9.0%
171
181
194
208
225
9.5%
159
168
178
190
204
Year-one growth and the final margin
margin ↓ · growth →
4.0%
6.0%
8.0%
10.0%
12.0%
9.1%
146
160
175
191
209
10.2%
162
177
194
211
231
11.4%
177
194
212
231
252
12.5%
192
210
230
251
274
13.6%
207
227
248
271
296
All the inputs moving at once
5,000 valuations, each with growth, final margin, discount rate and growth forever drawn at random around the values on the left (spreads of 3.0%, 2.0%, 1.0% and 0.5%). Not a probability — the spreads are assumptions too — but an honest picture of how wide the answer is.
10th percentile$148.93
Median$211.95
90th percentile$310.52
$200.00$300.00$400.00
Half of the simulations land between <b>$175.99</b> and <b>$257.75</b>; one in ten below $148.93, one in ten above $310.52.
Does the long run make sense?
9.0×The terminal value prices the business in year 10 at 9.0 times that year's EBITDA.
13%To grow 2.5% forever while reinvesting 20% of its after-tax operating profit, the business must earn 13% on the new capital — it has earned 11% on average over the last five years.
59%of the value comes from after year 10. The more of it, the more the answer depends on the part nobody can see.
Every Form 4 filed in the last twelve months, read line by line: 6 filings by 5 people. Open-market purchases and sales are counted apart from awards, option exercises and shares withheld for taxes.
Bought on the open market$148,9991 purchase(s) by 1 insider(s)
Sold on the open market$700,8152 sale(s) by 2 insider(s)
Under pre-arranged plans0%of the sales followed a 10b5-1 plan set months earlier
A Form 4 says what happened, when, how many shares and at what price. It does not say why: a sale can be diversification, a tax bill or a plan fixed months earlier, and an award is pay, not a purchase. Nothing here is a reason to buy or sell anything.
Which large funds report holding it
From the Form 13F of the 28 institutions followed on this site, as of the end of their last reported quarter. A 13F is filed up to 45 days later and shows only long positions in US-listed shares.
Accounts from the company's own SEC filings; lines some companies do not report are shown as a dash rather than estimated. The risk-free rate is the 10-year US Treasury yield. A DCF is a way of making assumptions explicit, not a forecast: it states what the company would be worth if the assumptions held. The scores are screens that point where to look, not verdicts. Nothing here is a recommendation to buy or sell.