CLH · Industrials(hazardous waste management) · 10 years of annual accounts filed with the SEC · latest fiscal year ended 2025-12-31
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Clean Harbors Inc reported revenue of $6.0 billion in fiscal 2025, after growing 9.1% a year over the previous 9 years. Its operating margin widened from 2.5% in 2016 to 11.2%, and it earned 9.0% on its invested capital in the latest year. Of the $5.3 billion its operations generated over 10 years, 53.8% went back into the business and 44.8% to acquisitions; the share count fell 6.6%. On the accounting screens, it passes 7 of 9 Piotroski tests, its Altman Z'' of 3.66 is in the safe zone and its Beneish M-score is below the -1.78 line; none of the six cross-checks between its statements fires.
Revenue, fiscal 20256.0B+9.1% a year over 9 years
Operating margin11.2%gross margin 31.3%
Return on invested capital9.0%9.2% on average over 5 years
Free cash flow after stock pay409.1M6.8% of revenue
Net debt ÷ EBITDA1.7×net debt 1.9B
Piotroski F-score7/9tests of improvement passed
Is it growing?
Revenue and the operating income it turns into. Growth that does not reach operating income is growth bought with margin.
RevenueOperating income
02B4B6B8B
2016Revenue 2.8BOperating income 69.2M
2017Revenue 2.9BOperating income 127.8M
2018Revenue 3.3BOperating income 182.6M
2019Revenue 3.4BOperating income 229.5M
2020Revenue 3.1BOperating income 251.3M
2021Revenue 3.8BOperating income 347.9M
2022Revenue 5.2BOperating income 634.7M
2023Revenue 5.4BOperating income 612.4M
2024Revenue 5.9BOperating income 670.2M
2025Revenue 6.0BOperating income 673.4M
2016201720182019202020212022202320242025
Compound growth a year
3 yrs
5 yrs
9 yrs
Revenue
+5.3%
+13.9%
+9.1%
Operating income
+2.0%
+21.8%
+28.8%
Net income
-1.7%
+23.7%
—
Earnings per share
-1.2%
+24.6%
—
Free cash flow per share
+16.8%
+14.3%
+31.5%
Shares
-0.5%
-0.7%
-0.8%
Falling shares are buybacks: each remaining share owns more of the company.
Does it earn more than its capital costs?
Margins say how much of each sale is kept; return on invested capital says how much the business earns on the money it needs to operate. Growth only creates value when that return is above the cost of the capital.
Return on invested capitalCost of capital today · 7.0%
-20%-10%0%10%20%
2016Return on invested capital -11.6%
2017Return on invested capital 1.3%
2018Return on invested capital 4.6%
2019Return on invested capital 5.3%
2020Return on invested capital 6.7%
2021Return on invested capital 6.5%
2022Return on invested capital 11.2%
2023Return on invested capital 10.1%
2024Return on invested capital 9.4%
2025Return on invested capital 9.0%
2016201720182019202020212022202320242025
Economic profit
Economic profit
-600M-400M-200M0200M
2016Economic profit -507.8M
2017Economic profit -162.2M
2018Economic profit -66.3M
2019Economic profit -48.1M
2020Economic profit -10.0M
2021Economic profit -23.0M
2022Economic profit 179.6M
2023Economic profit 139.4M
2024Economic profit 128.0M
2025Economic profit 109.8M
2016201720182019202020212022202320242025
(return on capital − cost of capital) × capital invested: the profit left after paying for the money used. Today's cost of capital is applied to every year, since a past one cannot be rebuilt honestly.
Return on equity
14.2%
Return on assets
5.1%
Asset turnover
0.79×
Overheads (SG&A)
12.5% of revenue
Is the profit cash, and where does the cash go?
Net income is an accounting opinion; free cash flow is what was left in the bank after investing. Stock-based pay does not leave the bank — shareholders pay it through dilution — so it is shown taken off as well.
Net incomeFree cash flowAfter stock-based pay
-200M0200M400M600M
2016Net income -39.9MFree cash flow 40.2MAfter stock-based pay 29.8M
2017Net income 100.7MFree cash flow 118.7MAfter stock-based pay 105.5M
2018Net income 65.6MFree cash flow 179.9MAfter stock-based pay 163.1M
2019Net income 97.7MFree cash flow 196.9MAfter stock-based pay 179.1M
2020Net income 134.8MFree cash flow 234.3MAfter stock-based pay 215.8M
2021Net income 203.2MFree cash flow 304.1MAfter stock-based pay 285.3M
2022Net income 411.7MFree cash flow 281.2MAfter stock-based pay 254.3M
2023Net income 377.9MFree cash flow 312.3MAfter stock-based pay 291.5M
2024Net income 402.3MFree cash flow 345.5MAfter stock-based pay 317.5M
2025Net income 391.0MFree cash flow 441.8MAfter stock-based pay 409.1M
2016201720182019202020212022202320242025
Where 10 years of operating cash went, 2016–2025
5.3B generated by the business. Each band is its share of that total.
Reinvested in the business 54%2.9B
Acquisitions 45%2.4B
Dividends 0%0
Share buybacks 13%673.4M
More than it generated: funded with cash or new debt -11%-601.0M
Over the same years it paid 203.8M in stock. The share count fell 6.6%. 469.6M of the buybacks went beyond offsetting that dilution.
Per share
Earnings per shareFree cash flow per shareDividend per share
-$2.5$0.0$2.5$5.0$7.5$10.0
2016Earnings per share $-0.69Free cash flow per share $0.70
2017Earnings per share $1.76Free cash flow per share $2.08
2018Earnings per share $1.16Free cash flow per share $3.19
2019Earnings per share $1.74Free cash flow per share $3.51
2020Earnings per share $2.42Free cash flow per share $4.21
2021Earnings per share $3.71Free cash flow per share $5.55
2022Earnings per share $7.56Free cash flow per share $5.16
2023Earnings per share $6.95Free cash flow per share $5.74
2024Earnings per share $7.42Free cash flow per share $6.38
2025Earnings per share $7.28Free cash flow per share $8.22
2016201720182019202020212022202320242025
Shares outstanding
Diluted shares
53M54M55M56M57M58M
2016Diluted shares 57.5M
2017Diluted shares 57.2M
2018Diluted shares 56.3M
2019Diluted shares 56.1M
2020Diluted shares 55.7M
2021Diluted shares 54.8M
2022Diluted shares 54.5M
2023Diluted shares 54.4M
2024Diluted shares 54.2M
2025Diluted shares 53.7M
2016201720182019202020212022202320242025
Debt and liquidity
Debt is not bad in itself; debt the business cannot service in a bad year is. Net debt is debt minus cash, and below zero the company holds more cash than it owes.
Net debt
01B2B3B
2016Net debt 1.3B
2017Net debt 1.3B
2018Net debt 1.3B
2019Net debt 1.2B
2020Net debt 1.0B
2021Net debt 2.1B
2022Net debt 1.9B
2023Net debt 1.9B
2024Net debt 2.1B
2025Net debt 1.9B
2016201720182019202020212022202320242025
Net debt ÷ EBITDA
1.7×
Interest coverage
5× operating income ÷ interest
Current ratio
2.33 current assets ÷ current liabilities
Cash conversion cycle
51 days collects in 63d, stock 33d, pays in 45d
Three classic screens of the accounts
Each asks a different question of the same statements — is it improving, does it look like a company heading for distress, do the accounts resemble ones that were manipulated. None is a verdict; each shows what moves it.
Piotroski F-score
Is the business improving? Nine yes-or-no tests, this year against last.
7of 9 tests passed
✓ProfitableReturn on assets above zeropassed
✓Cash from operationsOperating cash flow above zeropassed
✕Profitability improvedReturn on assets higher than a year beforefailed
✓Profit backed by cashOperating cash flow above net income (low accruals)passed
✓Less long-term debtLong-term debt as a share of assets fellpassed
✓More liquidCurrent ratio higher than a year beforepassed
✓No new sharesShare count did not growpassed
✓Better gross marginGross margin higher than a year beforepassed
✕Sells more per assetAsset turnover higher than a year beforefailed
Where it misleads: it measures change, not level. An excellent business that stood still for a year scores low; a poor one recovering from a disaster scores high.
Altman Z''-score
Does the balance sheet look like those of companies that went bankrupt?
3.66safe zone
1.12.6
Working capital ÷ assets 0.20 × 6.56+1.30
Retained earnings ÷ assets 0.36 × 3.26+1.18
Operating income ÷ assets 0.09 × 6.72+0.59
Equity ÷ liabilities 0.56 × 1.05+0.59
Where it misleads: buybacks. A company that returns so much cash that its equity turns small or negative sinks the last two ratios without being anywhere near bankruptcy. Banks and insurers do not fit the model at all.
Beneish M-score
Do the accounts resemble those of companies that manipulated their earnings?
-2.74below the -1.78 line
-1.78
Receivables vs sales 1.00+0.92
Gross margin slipping 0.99+0.52
Soft assets 1.00 (not reported, set to 1)+0.40
Sales growth 1.02+0.91
Slower depreciation 1.00 (not reported, set to 1)+0.12
Overheads vs sales 0.99-0.17
Profit not in cash -0.06-0.29
Leverage rising 0.97-0.32
Where it misleads: fast growth and acquisitions. Sales growth carries a heavy weight, so a company growing 50% a year scores like a suspect without having done anything. It is a screen from a 1999 study, not an accusation.
Where the statements disagree
Cross-checks between the income statement, the balance sheet and the cash flow for the latest year, each with the benign reading and the worrying one.
None of the six cross-checks fires for the latest year: receivables and inventory move with revenue, profit turns into cash, investment keeps up with depreciation, the tax rate is ordinary and debt is moderate.
What is it worth, under which assumptions?
A company is worth the cash it will generate, brought back to today. This model projects revenue with growth that fades over the years, applies a free cash flow margin, and discounts the result at the cost of capital. Every assumption says where it came from, and all of them can be changed.
Value per share, with these assumptions$261.48discounted at 7.0% a year · 68% of it from after year 10
Type a share price on the left to ask the reverse questions: what growth, what margin or what discount rate that price implies.
What the value implies, in the usual multiples
At this model's value
Price ÷ earnings
35.9×
Enterprise value ÷ EBITDA
14.3×
Enterprise value ÷ revenue
2.7×
Free cash flow yield
2.9%
From cash flows to a value per share
10 years of cash flow, today5.1B
Everything after, today10.9B
The whole business16.0B
Minus net debt-1.9B
What belongs to shareholders14.0B
Divided among 53.7M shares: <strong>$261.48</strong> each.
The projection next to its history
Reported free cash flow after stock pay, then the model's. A projection that looks nothing like the past needs a reason.
ReportedProjected
00.25B0.50B0.75B1.00B
2016Reported 29.8M
2017Reported 105.5M
2018Reported 163.1M
2019Reported 179.1M
2020Reported 215.8M
2021Reported 285.3M
2022Reported 254.3M
2023Reported 291.5M
2024Reported 317.5M
2025Reported 409.1M
2026Projected 495.5M
2027Projected 558.6M
2028Projected 622.5M
2029Projected 685.8M
2030Projected 746.8M
2031Projected 803.6M
2032Projected 854.5M
2033Projected 897.7M
2034Projected 931.6M
2035Projected 954.9M
2016201820202022202420262028203020322034
Year by year
2026
2027
2028
2029
2030
2031
2032
2033
2034
2035
Revenue
6.9B
7.7B
8.6B
9.5B
10.4B
11.1B
11.9B
12.5B
12.9B
13.2B
Growth
14.0%
12.7%
11.4%
10.2%
8.9%
7.6%
6.3%
5.1%
3.8%
2.5%
Cash margin
7.2%
7.2%
7.2%
7.2%
7.2%
7.2%
7.2%
7.2%
7.2%
7.2%
Free cash flow
495.5M
558.6M
622.5M
685.8M
746.8M
803.6M
854.5M
897.7M
931.6M
954.9M
Worth today
462.9M
487.5M
507.6M
522.4M
531.4M
534.2M
530.7M
520.8M
504.9M
483.5M
If the least-known inputs move
Value per share as two inputs change at a time. Neighbouring cells that differ a lot are the conclusion: the value depends on numbers nobody knows to a point.
The discount rate and growth forever
discount ↓ · forever →
1.5%
2.0%
2.5%
3.0%
3.5%
6.0%
273
306
350
407
488
6.5%
240
267
300
343
399
7.0%
214
235
261
294
336
7.5%
192
210
231
256
288
8.0%
174
188
205
226
251
Year-one growth and the final margin
margin ↓ · growth →
10.0%
12.0%
14.0%
16.0%
18.0%
5.8%
173
191
211
231
254
6.5%
194
214
236
259
284
7.2%
216
238
261
287
315
7.9%
237
261
287
315
345
8.6%
258
285
313
343
375
All the inputs moving at once
4,993 valuations, each with growth, final margin, discount rate and growth forever drawn at random around the values on the left (spreads of 3.0%, 2.0%, 1.0% and 0.5%). Not a probability — the spreads are assumptions too — but an honest picture of how wide the answer is.
10th percentile$149.11
Median$260.32
90th percentile$451.12
$200.00$400.00$600.00
Half of the simulations land between <b>$197.61</b> and <b>$347.33</b>; one in ten below $149.11, one in ten above $451.12.
Does the long run make sense?
8.8×The terminal value prices the business in year 10 at 8.8 times that year's EBITDA.
19%To grow 2.5% forever while reinvesting 13% of its after-tax operating profit, the business must earn 19% on the new capital — it has earned 9% on average over the last five years.
68%of the value comes from after year 10. The more of it, the more the answer depends on the part nobody can see.
Every Form 4 filed in the last twelve months, read line by line: 6 filings by 5 people. Open-market purchases and sales are counted apart from awards, option exercises and shares withheld for taxes.
Bought on the open market—none in the period
Sold on the open market$1.1M2 sale(s) by 2 insider(s)
Under pre-arranged plans0%of the sales followed a 10b5-1 plan set months earlier
A Form 4 says what happened, when, how many shares and at what price. It does not say why: a sale can be diversification, a tax bill or a plan fixed months earlier, and an award is pay, not a purchase. Nothing here is a reason to buy or sell anything.
Which large funds report holding it
From the Form 13F of the 28 institutions followed on this site, as of the end of their last reported quarter. A 13F is filed up to 45 days later and shows only long positions in US-listed shares.
Accounts from the company's own SEC filings; lines some companies do not report are shown as a dash rather than estimated. The risk-free rate is the 10-year US Treasury yield. A DCF is a way of making assumptions explicit, not a forecast: it states what the company would be worth if the assumptions held. The scores are screens that point where to look, not verdicts. Nothing here is a recommendation to buy or sell.