CDNA · Health care(services-medical laboratories) · 10 years of annual accounts filed with the SEC · latest fiscal year ended 2025-12-31
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CareDx, Inc. reported revenue of $379.8 million in fiscal 2025, after growing 25.7% a year over the previous 9 years. Its operating margin widened from -42.0% in 2017 to -8.1%. Of the $29.5 million its operations generated over 10 years, 394.7% went to buybacks and 138.8% to acquisitions; the share count rose 128.4%. On the accounting screens, it passes 4 of 7 Piotroski tests, its Altman Z'' of -0.76 is in the distress zone and its Beneish M-score is below the -1.78 line; 2 of the six cross-checks between its statements fire.
Revenue, fiscal 2025379.8M+25.7% a year over 9 years
Operating margin-8.1%gross margin —
Return on invested capital—
Free cash flow—
Net debt ÷ EBITDA—net debt —
Piotroski F-score4/7tests of improvement passed
Is it growing?
Revenue and the operating income it turns into. Growth that does not reach operating income is growth bought with margin.
RevenueOperating income
-400M-200M0200M400M
2017Revenue 48.3MOperating income -20.3M
2018Revenue 76.6MOperating income -15.6M
2019Revenue 127.1MOperating income -24.5M
2020Revenue 192.2MOperating income -22.5M
2021Revenue 296.4MOperating income -29.7M
2022Revenue 321.8MOperating income -77.2M
2023
2023Revenue 280.3MOperating income -203.4M
2024Revenue 333.8MOperating income 40.8M
2025Revenue 379.8MOperating income -30.8M
2017201820192020202120222023202320242025
Compound growth a year
3 yrs
5 yrs
9 yrs
Revenue
—
+5.1%
+25.7%
Shares
—
+0.4%
+9.6%
Falling shares are buybacks: each remaining share owns more of the company.
Does it earn more than its capital costs?
Margins say how much of each sale is kept; return on invested capital says how much the business earns on the money it needs to operate. Growth only creates value when that return is above the cost of the capital.
Needs a cost of capital, which comes from the valuation below.
Return on equity
-7.0%
Return on assets
-5.2%
Asset turnover
0.92×
Research & development
18.8% of revenue
Overheads (SG&A)
28.3% of revenue
Is the profit cash, and where does the cash go?
Net income is an accounting opinion; free cash flow is what was left in the bank after investing. Stock-based pay does not leave the bank — shareholders pay it through dilution — so it is shown taken off as well.
Net incomeFree cash flowAfter stock-based pay
-200M-100M0100M
2017Net income -55.5MFree cash flow -14.5MAfter stock-based pay -16.2M
2018Net income -46.8MFree cash flow -6.0MAfter stock-based pay -13.2M
2019Net income -22.0M
2020Net income -18.7M
2021Net income -30.7M
2022Net income -76.6M
2023
2023Net income -190.3M
2024Net income 52.5M
2025Net income -21.4M
2017201820192020202120222023202320242025
Where 10 years of operating cash went, 2017–2025
29.5M generated by the business. Each band is its share of that total.
Reinvested in the business 14%4.0M
Acquisitions 139%41.0M
Dividends 0%0
Share buybacks 395%116.5M
More than it generated: funded with cash or new debt -447%-131.9M
Over the same years it paid 287.7M in stock. The share count rose 128.4%. The buybacks did not even cover what was handed out in stock.
Per share
Earnings per shareFree cash flow per shareDividend per share
-$4-$2$0$2
2017Earnings per share $-2.38Free cash flow per share $-0.62
2018Earnings per share $-1.31Free cash flow per share $-0.17
2019Earnings per share $-0.52
2020Earnings per share $-0.40
2021Earnings per share $-0.59
2022Earnings per share $-1.44
2023
2023Earnings per share $-3.54
2024Earnings per share $0.93
2025Earnings per share $-0.40
2017201820192020202120222023202320242025
Shares outstanding
Diluted shares
20M30M40M50M60M
2017Diluted shares 23.3M
2018Diluted shares 35.6M
2019Diluted shares 42.2M
2020Diluted shares 46.5M
2021Diluted shares 52.2M
2022Diluted shares 53.3M
2023
2023Diluted shares 53.8M
2024Diluted shares 56.6M
2025Diluted shares 53.3M
2017201820192020202120222023202320242025
Debt and liquidity
Debt is not bad in itself; debt the business cannot service in a bad year is. Net debt is debt minus cash, and below zero the company holds more cash than it owes.
Net debt
-150M-100M-50M050M
2017Net debt 17.2M
2018Net debt -64.6M
2019Net debt -38.2M
2020Net debt -134.7M
2021
2022
2023
2023
2024
2025
2017201820192020202120222023202320242025
Net debt ÷ EBITDA
—
Interest coverage
— operating income ÷ interest
Current ratio
2.86 current assets ÷ current liabilities
Cash conversion cycle
— collects in 41d
Three classic screens of the accounts
Each asks a different question of the same statements — is it improving, does it look like a company heading for distress, do the accounts resemble ones that were manipulated. None is a verdict; each shows what moves it.
Piotroski F-score
Is the business improving? Nine yes-or-no tests, this year against last.
4of 7 tests passed
✕ProfitableReturn on assets above zerofailed
✓Cash from operationsOperating cash flow above zeropassed
✕Profitability improvedReturn on assets higher than a year beforefailed
✓Profit backed by cashOperating cash flow above net income (low accruals)passed
–Less long-term debtLong-term debt as a share of assets fell — not reportedno data
✕More liquidCurrent ratio higher than a year beforefailed
✓No new sharesShare count did not growpassed
–Better gross marginGross margin higher than a year before — not reportedno data
✓Sells more per assetAsset turnover higher than a year beforepassed
Where it misleads: it measures change, not level. An excellent business that stood still for a year scores low; a poor one recovering from a disaster scores high.
Altman Z''-score
Does the balance sheet look like those of companies that went bankrupt?
-0.76distress zone
1.12.6
Working capital ÷ assets 0.40 × 6.56+2.66
Retained earnings ÷ assets -1.78 × 3.26-5.80
Operating income ÷ assets -0.07 × 6.72-0.50
Equity ÷ liabilities 2.75 × 1.05+2.89
Where it misleads: buybacks. A company that returns so much cash that its equity turns small or negative sinks the last two ratios without being anywhere near bankruptcy. Banks and insurers do not fit the model at all.
Beneish M-score
Do the accounts resemble those of companies that manipulated their earnings?
-3.33below the -1.78 line
-1.78
Receivables vs sales 0.58+0.53
Gross margin slipping 1.00 (not reported, set to 1)+0.53
Soft assets 1.38+0.56
Sales growth 1.14+1.01
Slower depreciation 0.95+0.11
Overheads vs sales 0.76-0.13
Profit not in cash -0.15-0.72
Leverage rising 1.19-0.39
Where it misleads: fast growth and acquisitions. Sales growth carries a heavy weight, so a company growing 50% a year scores like a suspect without having done anything. It is a screen from a 1999 study, not an accusation.
Where the statements disagree
Cross-checks between the income statement, the balance sheet and the cash flow for the latest year, each with the benign reading and the worrying one.
Inventory is growing 37% against revenue growing 14%.
Benign
Stocking up for a launch, or securing supply.
Worrying
Demand is softening; discounts or write-downs tend to follow.
The effective tax rate is -1.3%.
Benign
A favourable geographic mix, or legitimate tax credits.
Worrying
Not sustainable; projecting it forward inflates the valuation.
What is it worth, under which assumptions?
A company is worth the cash it will generate, brought back to today. This model projects revenue with growth that fades over the years, applies a free cash flow margin, and discounts the result at the cost of capital. Every assumption says where it came from, and all of them can be changed.
The SEC accounts lack the lines needed for revenue, free cash flow or the share count, so there is no DCF for this company.
What it has filed lately
The last twelve months at the SEC, most important first: annual and quarterly reports, events, large holders and insiders.
Every Form 4 filed in the last twelve months, read line by line: 6 filings by 6 people. Open-market purchases and sales are counted apart from awards, option exercises and shares withheld for taxes.
Bought on the open market—none in the period
Sold on the open market$3.9M5 sale(s) by 4 insider(s)
Under pre-arranged plans60%of the sales followed a 10b5-1 plan set months earlier
A Form 4 says what happened, when, how many shares and at what price. It does not say why: a sale can be diversification, a tax bill or a plan fixed months earlier, and an award is pay, not a purchase. Nothing here is a reason to buy or sell anything.
Which large funds report holding it
From the Form 13F of the 28 institutions followed on this site, as of the end of their last reported quarter. A 13F is filed up to 45 days later and shows only long positions in US-listed shares.
Accounts from the company's own SEC filings; lines some companies do not report are shown as a dash rather than estimated. The risk-free rate is the 10-year US Treasury yield. A DCF is a way of making assumptions explicit, not a forecast: it states what the company would be worth if the assumptions held. The scores are screens that point where to look, not verdicts. Nothing here is a recommendation to buy or sell.
