CCO · Industrials(services-advertising) · 10 years of annual accounts filed with the SEC · latest fiscal year ended 2025-12-31
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Clear Channel Outdoor Holdings, Inc. reported revenue of $1.6 billion in fiscal 2025, after shrinking 5.2% a year over the previous 9 years. Its operating margin widened from 9.0% in 2017 to 19.4%, and it earned 19.1% on its invested capital in the latest year. Of the $656.5 million its operations generated over 10 years, 231.0% went back into the business and 60.1% to dividends; the share count rose 37.2%. On the accounting screens, it passes 5 of 8 Piotroski tests, its Altman Z'' of -5.56 is in the distress zone and its Beneish M-score is below the -1.78 line; 3 of the six cross-checks between its statements fire.
Revenue, fiscal 20251.6B-5.2% a year over 9 years
Operating margin19.4%gross margin —
Return on invested capital19.1%14.3% on average over 5 years
Free cash flow after stock pay6.3M0.4% of revenue
Net debt ÷ EBITDA10.1×net debt 4.9B
Piotroski F-score5/8tests of improvement passed
Is it growing?
Revenue and the operating income it turns into. Growth that does not reach operating income is growth bought with margin.
RevenueOperating income
-1B01B2B3B
2017Revenue 2.6BOperating income 232.3M
2018
2018Revenue 2.7BOperating income 251.8M
2019Revenue 2.7BOperating income 252.9M
2020Revenue 1.9BOperating income -292.4M
2021Revenue 1.8BOperating income 58.8M
2022Revenue 1.4BOperating income 255.9M
2023Revenue 1.4BOperating income 216.8M
2024Revenue 1.5BOperating income 279.2M
2025Revenue 1.6BOperating income 310.6M
2017201820182019202020212022202320242025
Compound growth a year
3 yrs
5 yrs
9 yrs
Revenue
+5.1%
-2.9%
-5.2%
Operating income
+6.7%
—
+3.3%
Shares
+0.8%
+1.3%
+3.6%
Falling shares are buybacks: each remaining share owns more of the company.
Does it earn more than its capital costs?
Margins say how much of each sale is kept; return on invested capital says how much the business earns on the money it needs to operate. Growth only creates value when that return is above the cost of the capital.
Return on invested capitalCost of capital today · 7.8%
-20%-10%0%10%20%30%
2017Return on invested capital 8.9%
2018
2018Return on invested capital 9.4%
2019Return on invested capital 10.4%
2020Return on invested capital -11.4%
2021Return on invested capital 2.7%
2022Return on invested capital 23.8%
2023Return on invested capital 11.2%
2024Return on invested capital 14.8%
2025Return on invested capital 19.1%
2017201820182019202020212022202320242025
Economic profit
Economic profit
-750M-500M-250M0250M500M
2017Economic profit 39.8M
2018
2018Economic profit 53.7M
2019Economic profit 81.1M
2020Economic profit -534.5M
2021Economic profit -122.7M
2022Economic profit 368.8M
2023Economic profit 75.9M
2024Economic profit 142.2M
2025Economic profit 193.7M
2017201820182019202020212022202320242025
(return on capital − cost of capital) × capital invested: the profit left after paying for the money used. Today's cost of capital is applied to every year, since a past one cannot be rebuilt honestly.
Return on equity
—
Return on assets
0.5%
Asset turnover
0.42×
Overheads (SG&A)
16.4% of revenue
Is the profit cash, and where does the cash go?
Net income is an accounting opinion; free cash flow is what was left in the bank after investing. Stock-based pay does not leave the bank — shareholders pay it through dilution — so it is shown taken off as well.
Net incomeFree cash flowAfter stock-based pay
-800M-600M-400M-200M0200M
2017Net income -644.3MFree cash flow -64.1MAfter stock-based pay -73.7M
2018
2018Net income -218.2MFree cash flow -23.8MAfter stock-based pay -32.3M
2019Net income -363.3MFree cash flow -17.9MAfter stock-based pay -33.7M
2020Net income -582.7MFree cash flow -262.0MAfter stock-based pay -275.2M
2021Net income -433.8MFree cash flow -281.5MAfter stock-based pay -300.9M
2022Net income -96.6MFree cash flow -44.7MAfter stock-based pay -65.8M
2023Net income -310.9MFree cash flow -135.3MAfter stock-based pay -155.8M
2024Net income -179.3MFree cash flow -62.6MAfter stock-based pay -88.9M
2025Net income 19.9MFree cash flow 32.0MAfter stock-based pay 6.3M
2017201820182019202020212022202320242025
Where 10 years of operating cash went, 2017–2025
656.5M generated by the business. Each band is its share of that total.
Reinvested in the business 231%1.5B
Acquisitions 15%101.3M
Dividends 60%394.6M
Share buybacks 0%0
More than it generated: funded with cash or new debt -207%-1.4B
Over the same years it paid 160.0M in stock. The share count rose 37.2%.
Per share
Earnings per shareFree cash flow per shareDividend per share
-$2-$1$0$1
2017Earnings per share $-1.78Free cash flow per share $-0.18Dividend per share $0.92
2018
2018Earnings per share $-0.60Free cash flow per share $-0.07Dividend per share $0.08
2019Earnings per share $-0.88Free cash flow per share $-0.04Dividend per share $0.00
2020Earnings per share $-1.25Free cash flow per share $-0.56Dividend per share $0.00
2021Earnings per share $-0.93Free cash flow per share $-0.60
2022Earnings per share $-0.20Free cash flow per share $-0.09
2023Earnings per share $-0.65Free cash flow per share $-0.28
2024Earnings per share $-0.37Free cash flow per share $-0.13
2025Earnings per share $0.04Free cash flow per share $0.06
2017201820182019202020212022202320242025
Shares outstanding
Diluted shares
350M400M450M500M
2017Diluted shares 361.1M
2018
2018Diluted shares 361.7M
2019Diluted shares 413.1M
2020Diluted shares 464.5M
2021Diluted shares 468.5M
2022Diluted shares 483.5M
2023Diluted shares 481.7M
2024Diluted shares 487.7M
2025Diluted shares 495.4M
2017201820182019202020212022202320242025
Debt and liquidity
Debt is not bad in itself; debt the business cannot service in a bad year is. Net debt is debt minus cash, and below zero the company holds more cash than it owes.
Net debt
02B4B6B
2017Net debt 5.1B
2018
2018Net debt 5.1B
2019Net debt 4.7B
2020Net debt 4.8B
2021Net debt 5.2B
2022Net debt 5.3B
2023Net debt 5.5B
2024Net debt 5.6B
2025Net debt 4.9B
2017201820182019202020212022202320242025
Net debt ÷ EBITDA
10.1×
Interest coverage
1× operating income ÷ interest
Current ratio
1.28 current assets ÷ current liabilities
Cash conversion cycle
— collects in 85d
Three classic screens of the accounts
Each asks a different question of the same statements — is it improving, does it look like a company heading for distress, do the accounts resemble ones that were manipulated. None is a verdict; each shows what moves it.
Piotroski F-score
Is the business improving? Nine yes-or-no tests, this year against last.
5of 8 tests passed
✓ProfitableReturn on assets above zeropassed
✓Cash from operationsOperating cash flow above zeropassed
✓Profitability improvedReturn on assets higher than a year beforepassed
✓Profit backed by cashOperating cash flow above net income (low accruals)passed
✕Less long-term debtLong-term debt as a share of assets fellfailed
✕More liquidCurrent ratio higher than a year beforefailed
✕No new sharesShare count did not growfailed
–Better gross marginGross margin higher than a year before — not reportedno data
✓Sells more per assetAsset turnover higher than a year beforepassed
Where it misleads: it measures change, not level. An excellent business that stood still for a year scores low; a poor one recovering from a disaster scores high.
Altman Z''-score
Does the balance sheet look like those of companies that went bankrupt?
-5.56distress zone
1.12.6
Working capital ÷ assets 0.05 × 6.56+0.30
Retained earnings ÷ assets -1.81 × 3.26-5.91
Operating income ÷ assets 0.08 × 6.72+0.55
Equity ÷ liabilities -0.47 × 1.05-0.49
Where it misleads: buybacks. A company that returns so much cash that its equity turns small or negative sinks the last two ratios without being anywhere near bankruptcy. Banks and insurers do not fit the model at all.
Beneish M-score
Do the accounts resemble those of companies that manipulated their earnings?
-2.45below the -1.78 line
-1.78
Receivables vs sales 1.01+0.93
Gross margin slipping 1.00 (not reported, set to 1)+0.53
Soft assets 1.22+0.49
Sales growth 1.07+0.95
Slower depreciation 0.94+0.11
Overheads vs sales 0.97-0.17
Profit not in cash -0.02-0.12
Leverage rising 1.04-0.34
Where it misleads: fast growth and acquisitions. Sales growth carries a heavy weight, so a company growing 50% a year scores like a suspect without having done anything. It is a screen from a 1999 study, not an accusation.
Where the statements disagree
Cross-checks between the income statement, the balance sheet and the cash flow for the latest year, each with the benign reading and the worrying one.
Capital spending (83M) is well below depreciation (175M).
Benign
Mature assets, or a business that has become less capital-intensive.
Worrying
Under-investing: today's profit is being held up by consuming tomorrow's capacity.
The effective tax rate is -5.0%.
Benign
A favourable geographic mix, or legitimate tax credits.
Worrying
Not sustainable; projecting it forward inflates the valuation.
Net debt is 10.1 times EBITDA.
Benign
A stable sector with predictable cash flows and comfortable maturities.
Worrying
Little room if earnings fall; the maturity schedule is what to check.
What is it worth, under which assumptions?
A company is worth the cash it will generate, brought back to today. This model projects revenue with growth that fades over the years, applies a free cash flow margin, and discounts the result at the cost of capital. Every assumption says where it came from, and all of them can be changed.
Value per share, with these assumptions$0.95discounted at 7.8% a year · 59% of it from after year 10
Type a share price on the left to ask the reverse questions: what growth, what margin or what discount rate that price implies.
What the value implies, in the usual multiples
At this model's value
Price ÷ earnings
23.6×
Enterprise value ÷ EBITDA
11.1×
Enterprise value ÷ revenue
3.4×
Free cash flow yield
1.3%
From cash flows to a value per share
10 years of cash flow, today2.2B
Everything after, today3.2B
The whole business5.4B
Minus net debt-4.9B
What belongs to shareholders470.0M
Divided among 495.4M shares: <strong>$0.95</strong> each.
The projection next to its history
Reported free cash flow after stock pay, then the model's. A projection that looks nothing like the past needs a reason.
ReportedProjected
-400M-200M0200M400M
2017Reported -73.7M
2018
2018Reported -32.3M
2019Reported -33.7M
2020Reported -275.2M
2021Reported -300.9M
2022Reported -65.8M
2023Reported -155.8M
2024Reported -88.9M
2025Reported 6.3M
2026Projected 339.8M
2027Projected 331.7M
2028Projected 325.8M
2029Projected 322.0M
2030Projected 320.2M
2031Projected 320.4M
2032Projected 322.6M
2033Projected 326.7M
2034Projected 332.8M
2035Projected 341.2M
2017201820202022202420262028203020322034
Year by year
2026
2027
2028
2029
2030
2031
2032
2033
2034
2035
Revenue
1.6B
1.5B
1.5B
1.5B
1.5B
1.5B
1.5B
1.5B
1.5B
1.6B
Growth
-3.0%
-2.4%
-1.8%
-1.2%
-0.6%
0.1%
0.7%
1.3%
1.9%
2.5%
Cash margin
21.8%
21.8%
21.8%
21.8%
21.8%
21.8%
21.8%
21.8%
21.8%
21.8%
Free cash flow
339.8M
331.7M
325.8M
322.0M
320.2M
320.4M
322.6M
326.7M
332.8M
341.2M
Worth today
315.4M
285.7M
260.4M
238.9M
220.5M
204.7M
191.2M
179.8M
170.0M
161.7M
If the least-known inputs move
Value per share as two inputs change at a time. Neighbouring cells that differ a lot are the conclusion: the value depends on numbers nobody knows to a point.
The discount rate and growth forever
discount ↓ · forever →
1.5%
2.0%
2.5%
3.0%
3.5%
6.8%
1
2
3
5
7
7.2%
0
1
2
3
5
7.8%
-0
0
1
2
3
8.2%
-1
-1
0
1
2
8.8%
-2
-1
-1
-0
1
Year-one growth and the final margin
margin ↓ · growth →
-7.0%
-5.0%
-3.0%
-1.0%
1.0%
17.5%
-2
-2
-1
0
1
19.7%
-2
-1
0
1
2
21.8%
-1
0
1
2
3
24.0%
-0
1
2
3
4
26.2%
1
2
3
4
5
All the inputs moving at once
5,000 valuations, each with growth, final margin, discount rate and growth forever drawn at random around the values on the left (spreads of 3.0%, 3.3%, 1.0% and 0.5%). Not a probability — the spreads are assumptions too — but an honest picture of how wide the answer is.
10th percentile$-1.94
Median$0.98
90th percentile$5.96
$0.00$5.00$10.00
Half of the simulations land between <b>$-0.72</b> and <b>$3.20</b>; one in ten below $-1.94, one in ten above $5.96.
Does the long run make sense?
14.1×The terminal value prices the business in year 10 at 14.1 times that year's EBITDA.
Free growthIn year 10 free cash flow is at or above after-tax operating profit, yet the model grows 2.5% forever. Growth needs reinvestment; this assumes it comes for free, which flatters the terminal value.
59%of the value comes from after year 10. The more of it, the more the answer depends on the part nobody can see.
Every Form 4 filed in the last twelve months, read line by line: 6 filings by 12 people. Open-market purchases and sales are counted apart from awards, option exercises and shares withheld for taxes.
Bought on the open market—none in the period
Sold on the open market$63.0M8 sale(s) by 1 insider(s)
Under pre-arranged plans0%of the sales followed a 10b5-1 plan set months earlier
A Form 4 says what happened, when, how many shares and at what price. It does not say why: a sale can be diversification, a tax bill or a plan fixed months earlier, and an award is pay, not a purchase. Nothing here is a reason to buy or sell anything.
Companies like this one
Same SEC industry (services-advertising) first, then the rest of industrials.
Accounts from the company's own SEC filings; lines some companies do not report are shown as a dash rather than estimated. The risk-free rate is the 10-year US Treasury yield. A DCF is a way of making assumptions explicit, not a forecast: it states what the company would be worth if the assumptions held. The scores are screens that point where to look, not verdicts. Nothing here is a recommendation to buy or sell.