BLBD · Consumer discretionary(truck & bus bodies) · 10 years of annual accounts filed with the SEC · latest fiscal year ended 2025-09-27
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Blue Bird Corp reported revenue of $1.5 billion in fiscal 2025, after growing 4.2% a year over the previous 9 years. Its operating margin widened from 3.4% in 2018 to 11.3%, and it earned 35.8% on its invested capital in the latest year. Of the $411.7 million its operations generated over 10 years, 38.5% went back into the business; the share count rose 14.9%. On the accounting screens, it passes 8 of 9 Piotroski tests, its Altman Z'' of 4.82 is in the safe zone and its Beneish M-score is below the -1.78 line; none of the six cross-checks between its statements fires.
Revenue, fiscal 20251.5B+4.2% a year over 9 years
Operating margin11.3%gross margin 20.5%
Return on invested capital35.8%15.8% on average over 4 years
Free cash flow after stock pay138.6M9.4% of revenue
Net debt ÷ EBITDANet cash139.0M more cash than debt
Piotroski F-score8/9tests of improvement passed
Is it growing?
Revenue and the operating income it turns into. Growth that does not reach operating income is growth bought with margin.
RevenueOperating income
-0.5B00.5B1.0B1.5B
2018Revenue 1.0BOperating income 35.1M
2019Revenue 1.0BOperating income 43.8M
2020Revenue 879.2MOperating income 22.0M
2021
2021Revenue 684.0MOperating income 6.5M
2022Revenue 800.6MOperating income -40.7M
2022Revenue 800.6MOperating income -40.7M
2023Revenue 1.1BOperating income 51.7M
2024Revenue 1.3BOperating income 139.3M
2025Revenue 1.5BOperating income 167.2M
2018201920202021202120222022202320242025
Compound growth a year
3 yrs
5 yrs
9 yrs
Revenue
+22.7%
+16.7%
+4.2%
Operating income
—
+91.3%
+18.9%
Net income
—
—
+17.1%
Earnings per share
—
—
+15.3%
Free cash flow per share
—
—
+26.4%
Shares
+2.0%
+3.9%
+1.6%
Falling shares are buybacks: each remaining share owns more of the company.
Does it earn more than its capital costs?
Margins say how much of each sale is kept; return on invested capital says how much the business earns on the money it needs to operate. Growth only creates value when that return is above the cost of the capital.
Return on invested capitalCost of capital today · 9.1%
-40%-20%0%20%40%60%
2018Return on invested capital 27.8%
2019Return on invested capital 28.3%
2020Return on invested capital 15.6%
2021
2021Return on invested capital 7.9%
2022
2022Return on invested capital -32.6%
2023Return on invested capital 19.8%
2024Return on invested capital 40.4%
2025Return on invested capital 35.8%
2018201920202021202120222022202320242025
Economic profit
Economic profit
-100M-50M050M100M
2018Economic profit 21.3M
2019Economic profit 22.1M
2020Economic profit 7.8M
2021
2021Economic profit -1.6M
2022
2022Economic profit -63.3M
2023Economic profit 18.2M
2024Economic profit 79.7M
2025Economic profit 92.4M
2018201920202021202120222022202320242025
(return on capital − cost of capital) × capital invested: the profit left after paying for the money used. Today's cost of capital is applied to every year, since a past one cannot be rebuilt honestly.
Return on equity
50.0%
Return on assets
20.4%
Asset turnover
2.37×
Research & development
1.0% of revenue
Overheads (SG&A)
9.2% of revenue
Is the profit cash, and where does the cash go?
Net income is an accounting opinion; free cash flow is what was left in the bank after investing. Stock-based pay does not leave the bank — shareholders pay it through dilution — so it is shown taken off as well.
Net incomeFree cash flowAfter stock-based pay
-100M0100M200M
2018Net income 30.8MFree cash flow 16.2MAfter stock-based pay 13.6M
2019Net income 24.3MFree cash flow 20.2MAfter stock-based pay 15.9M
2020Net income 12.2MFree cash flow -15.5MAfter stock-based pay -19.6M
2021
2021Net income -289,000Free cash flow -66.5MAfter stock-based pay -72.4M
2022Net income -45.8MFree cash flow -30.9MAfter stock-based pay -34.6M
2022Net income -45.8MFree cash flow -30.9MAfter stock-based pay -34.6M
2023Net income 23.8MFree cash flow 111.4MAfter stock-based pay 107.2M
2024Net income 105.5MFree cash flow 95.8MAfter stock-based pay 87.2M
2025Net income 127.7MFree cash flow 153.3MAfter stock-based pay 138.6M
2018201920202021202120222022202320242025
Where 10 years of operating cash went, 2018–2025
411.7M generated by the business. Each band is its share of that total.
Reinvested in the business 38%158.4M
Acquisitions 0%0
Dividends 0%0
Share buybacks 5%18.9M
Kept, or used to pay down debt 57%234.3M
Over the same years it paid 51.9M in stock. The share count rose 14.9%. The buybacks did not even cover what was handed out in stock.
Per share
Earnings per shareFree cash flow per shareDividend per share
-$4-$2$0$2$4$6
2018Earnings per share $1.08Free cash flow per share $0.57
2019Earnings per share $0.90Free cash flow per share $0.75
2020Earnings per share $0.45Free cash flow per share $-0.57
2021
2021Earnings per share $-0.01Free cash flow per share $-2.45
2022Earnings per share $-1.48Free cash flow per share $-1.00
2022Earnings per share $-1.48Free cash flow per share $-1.00
2023Earnings per share $0.74Free cash flow per share $3.45
2024Earnings per share $3.16Free cash flow per share $2.87
2025Earnings per share $3.88Free cash flow per share $4.66
2018201920202021202120222022202320242025
Shares outstanding
Diluted shares
26M28M30M32M34M
2018Diluted shares 28.6M
2019Diluted shares 27.0M
2020Diluted shares 27.1M
2021
2021Diluted shares 27.1M
2022Diluted shares 31.0M
2022Diluted shares 31.0M
2023Diluted shares 32.3M
2024Diluted shares 33.3M
2025Diluted shares 32.9M
2018201920202021202120222022202320242025
Debt and liquidity
Debt is not bad in itself; debt the business cannot service in a bad year is. Net debt is debt minus cash, and below zero the company holds more cash than it owes.
Net debt
-200M-100M0100M200M
2018Net debt 81.9M
2019Net debt 112.2M
2020Net debt 129.6M
2021
2021Net debt 152.7M
2022
2022Net debt 139.7M
2023Net debt 51.4M
2024Net debt -32.7M
2025Net debt -139.0M
2018201920202021202120222022202320242025
Net debt ÷ EBITDA
-0.8×
Interest coverage
23× operating income ÷ interest
Current ratio
1.74 current assets ÷ current liabilities
Cash conversion cycle
1 days collects in 5d, stock 43d, pays in 47d
Three classic screens of the accounts
Each asks a different question of the same statements — is it improving, does it look like a company heading for distress, do the accounts resemble ones that were manipulated. None is a verdict; each shows what moves it.
Piotroski F-score
Is the business improving? Nine yes-or-no tests, this year against last.
8of 9 tests passed
✓ProfitableReturn on assets above zeropassed
✓Cash from operationsOperating cash flow above zeropassed
✓Profitability improvedReturn on assets higher than a year beforepassed
✓Profit backed by cashOperating cash flow above net income (low accruals)passed
✓Less long-term debtLong-term debt as a share of assets fellpassed
✓More liquidCurrent ratio higher than a year beforepassed
✓No new sharesShare count did not growpassed
✓Better gross marginGross margin higher than a year beforepassed
✕Sells more per assetAsset turnover higher than a year beforefailed
Where it misleads: it measures change, not level. An excellent business that stood still for a year scores low; a poor one recovering from a disaster scores high.
Altman Z''-score
Does the balance sheet look like those of companies that went bankrupt?
4.82safe zone
1.12.6
Working capital ÷ assets 0.28 × 6.56+1.83
Retained earnings ÷ assets 0.14 × 3.26+0.46
Operating income ÷ assets 0.27 × 6.72+1.80
Equity ÷ liabilities 0.69 × 1.05+0.73
Where it misleads: buybacks. A company that returns so much cash that its equity turns small or negative sinks the last two ratios without being anywhere near bankruptcy. Banks and insurers do not fit the model at all.
Beneish M-score
Do the accounts resemble those of companies that manipulated their earnings?
-3.43below the -1.78 line
-1.78
Receivables vs sales 0.32+0.29
Gross margin slipping 0.93+0.49
Soft assets 0.85+0.34
Sales growth 1.10+0.98
Slower depreciation 1.05+0.12
Overheads vs sales 1.06-0.18
Profit not in cash -0.08-0.36
Leverage rising 0.83-0.27
Where it misleads: fast growth and acquisitions. Sales growth carries a heavy weight, so a company growing 50% a year scores like a suspect without having done anything. It is a screen from a 1999 study, not an accusation.
Where the statements disagree
Cross-checks between the income statement, the balance sheet and the cash flow for the latest year, each with the benign reading and the worrying one.
None of the six cross-checks fires for the latest year: receivables and inventory move with revenue, profit turns into cash, investment keeps up with depreciation, the tax rate is ordinary and debt is moderate.
What is it worth, under which assumptions?
A company is worth the cash it will generate, brought back to today. This model projects revenue with growth that fades over the years, applies a free cash flow margin, and discounts the result at the cost of capital. Every assumption says where it came from, and all of them can be changed.
Value per share, with these assumptions$106.96discounted at 9.1% a year · 60% of it from after year 10
Type a share price on the left to ask the reverse questions: what growth, what margin or what discount rate that price implies.
What the value implies, in the usual multiples
At this model's value
Price ÷ earnings
27.5×
Enterprise value ÷ EBITDA
18.5×
Enterprise value ÷ revenue
2.3×
Free cash flow yield
3.9%
From cash flows to a value per share
10 years of cash flow, today1.4B
Everything after, today2.0B
The whole business3.4B
Plus net cash139.0M
What belongs to shareholders3.5B
Divided among 32.9M shares: <strong>$106.96</strong> each.
The projection next to its history
Reported free cash flow after stock pay, then the model's. A projection that looks nothing like the past needs a reason.
ReportedProjected
-100M0100M200M300M400M
2018Reported 13.6M
2019Reported 15.9M
2020Reported -19.6M
2021
2021Reported -72.4M
2022Reported -34.6M
2022Reported -34.6M
2023Reported 107.2M
2024Reported 87.2M
2025Reported 138.6M
2026Projected 123.3M
2027Projected 147.2M
2028Projected 172.7M
2029Projected 198.8M
2030Projected 224.8M
2031Projected 249.4M
2032Projected 271.4M
2033Projected 289.7M
2034Projected 303.0M
2035Projected 310.6M
2018202020212022202420262028203020322034
Year by year
2026
2027
2028
2029
2030
2031
2032
2033
2034
2035
Revenue
1.8B
2.1B
2.5B
2.9B
3.3B
3.6B
4.0B
4.2B
4.4B
4.5B
Growth
21.5%
19.4%
17.3%
15.2%
13.1%
10.9%
8.8%
6.7%
4.6%
2.5%
Cash margin
6.9%
6.9%
6.9%
6.9%
6.9%
6.9%
6.9%
6.9%
6.9%
6.9%
Free cash flow
123.3M
147.2M
172.7M
198.8M
224.8M
249.4M
271.4M
289.7M
303.0M
310.6M
Worth today
113.0M
123.7M
132.9M
140.3M
145.4M
147.8M
147.5M
144.2M
138.3M
129.9M
If the least-known inputs move
Value per share as two inputs change at a time. Neighbouring cells that differ a lot are the conclusion: the value depends on numbers nobody knows to a point.
The discount rate and growth forever
discount ↓ · forever →
1.5%
2.0%
2.5%
3.0%
3.5%
8.1%
111
118
127
138
150
8.6%
102
109
116
125
135
9.1%
95
101
107
114
123
9.6%
89
94
99
105
112
10.1%
84
88
92
97
103
Year-one growth and the final margin
margin ↓ · growth →
17.5%
19.5%
21.5%
23.5%
25.5%
5.5%
78
84
90
97
104
6.2%
85
91
98
106
114
6.9%
92
99
107
115
124
7.5%
99
107
115
124
134
8.2%
106
115
124
134
144
All the inputs moving at once
5,000 valuations, each with growth, final margin, discount rate and growth forever drawn at random around the values on the left (spreads of 3.0%, 2.0%, 1.0% and 0.5%). Not a probability — the spreads are assumptions too — but an honest picture of how wide the answer is.
10th percentile$70.45
Median$106.90
90th percentile$158.02
$50.00$100.00$150.00$200.00
Half of the simulations land between <b>$86.82</b> and <b>$131.16</b>; one in ten below $70.45, one in ten above $158.02.
Does the long run make sense?
8.6×The terminal value prices the business in year 10 at 8.6 times that year's EBITDA.
14%To grow 2.5% forever while reinvesting 18% of its after-tax operating profit, the business must earn 14% on the new capital — it has earned 16% on average over the last five years.
60%of the value comes from after year 10. The more of it, the more the answer depends on the part nobody can see.
Every Form 4 filed in the last twelve months, read line by line: 6 filings by 5 people. Open-market purchases and sales are counted apart from awards, option exercises and shares withheld for taxes.
Bought on the open market$42,0562 purchase(s) by 1 insider(s)
Sold on the open market$249,6001 sale(s) by 1 insider(s)
Under pre-arranged plans0%of the sales followed a 10b5-1 plan set months earlier
A Form 4 says what happened, when, how many shares and at what price. It does not say why: a sale can be diversification, a tax bill or a plan fixed months earlier, and an award is pay, not a purchase. Nothing here is a reason to buy or sell anything.
Companies like this one
Same SEC industry (truck & bus bodies) first, then the rest of consumer discretionary.
Accounts from the company's own SEC filings; lines some companies do not report are shown as a dash rather than estimated. The risk-free rate is the 10-year US Treasury yield. A DCF is a way of making assumptions explicit, not a forecast: it states what the company would be worth if the assumptions held. The scores are screens that point where to look, not verdicts. Nothing here is a recommendation to buy or sell.
