BC · Industrials(engines & turbines) · 10 years of annual accounts filed with the SEC · latest fiscal year ended 2025-12-31
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Brunswick Corp reported revenue of $5.4 billion in fiscal 2025, after growing 3.9% a year over the previous 9 years. Its operating margin narrowed from 8.7% in 2017 to -0.8%, and it earned -1.1% on its invested capital in the latest year. Of the $4.9 billion its operations generated over 10 years, 48.5% went to acquisitions and 42.2% back into the business; the share count fell 26.9%. On the accounting screens, it passes 5 of 9 Piotroski tests, its Altman Z'' of 3.26 is in the safe zone and its Beneish M-score is below the -1.78 line; 4 of the six cross-checks between its statements fire.
Revenue, fiscal 20255.4B+3.9% a year over 9 years
Operating margin-0.8%gross margin 24.8%
Return on invested capital-1.1%9.9% on average over 5 years
Free cash flow after stock pay357.6M6.7% of revenue
Net debt ÷ EBITDA7.3×net debt 1.8B
Piotroski F-score5/9tests of improvement passed
Is it growing?
Revenue and the operating income it turns into. Growth that does not reach operating income is growth bought with margin.
RevenueOperating income
-2.0B02.0B4.0B6.0B8.0B
2017Revenue 3.8BOperating income 330.3M
2018
2018Revenue 4.1BOperating income 355.5M
2019Revenue 4.1BOperating income 471.0M
2020Revenue 4.3BOperating income 539.3M
2021Revenue 5.8BOperating income 812.9M
2022Revenue 6.8BOperating income 947.8M
2023Revenue 6.4BOperating income 734.9M
2024Revenue 5.2BOperating income 311.6M
2025Revenue 5.4BOperating income -40.7M
2017201820182019202020212022202320242025
Compound growth a year
3 yrs
5 yrs
9 yrs
Revenue
-7.7%
+4.3%
+3.9%
Free cash flow per share
+31.7%
-4.9%
+10.4%
Dividend per share
+5.8%
+11.7%
+10.9%
Shares
-4.3%
-3.7%
-3.4%
Falling shares are buybacks: each remaining share owns more of the company.
Does it earn more than its capital costs?
Margins say how much of each sale is kept; return on invested capital says how much the business earns on the money it needs to operate. Growth only creates value when that return is above the cost of the capital.
Return on invested capitalCost of capital today · 7.4%
-5.0%0.0%5.0%10.0%15.0%20.0%
2017Return on invested capital 8.2%
2018
2018Return on invested capital 10.3%
2019Return on invested capital 5.4%
2020Return on invested capital 17.4%
2021Return on invested capital 17.6%
2022Return on invested capital 16.6%
2023Return on invested capital 11.2%
2024Return on invested capital 5.4%
2025Return on invested capital -1.1%
2017201820182019202020212022202320242025
Economic profit
Economic profit
-400.0M-200.0M0200.0M400.0M600.0M
2017Economic profit 14.5M
2018
2018Economic profit 81.6M
2019Economic profit -49.8M
2020Economic profit 244.6M
2021Economic profit 380.0M
2022Economic profit 418.3M
2023Economic profit 169.8M
2024Economic profit -85.7M
2025Economic profit -317.8M
2017201820182019202020212022202320242025
(return on capital − cost of capital) × capital invested: the profit left after paying for the money used. Today's cost of capital is applied to every year, since a past one cannot be rebuilt honestly.
Return on equity
-8.4%
Return on assets
-2.6%
Asset turnover
1.01×
Research & development
3.1% of revenue
Overheads (SG&A)
15.9% of revenue
Is the profit cash, and where does the cash go?
Net income is an accounting opinion; free cash flow is what was left in the bank after investing. Stock-based pay does not leave the bank — shareholders pay it through dilution — so it is shown taken off as well.
Net incomeFree cash flowAfter stock-based pay
-250.0M0250.0M500.0M750.0M
2017Net income 146.4MFree cash flow 222.3MAfter stock-based pay 206.4M
2018
2018Net income 265.3MFree cash flow 156.8MAfter stock-based pay 140.1M
2019Net income -131.0MFree cash flow 201.6MAfter stock-based pay 184.3M
2020Net income 372.7MFree cash flow 615.9MAfter stock-based pay 588.8M
2021Net income 593.3MFree cash flow 306.9MAfter stock-based pay 277.2M
2022Net income 677.0MFree cash flow 197.8MAfter stock-based pay 175.9M
2023Net income 420.4MFree cash flow 444.3MAfter stock-based pay 421.9M
2024Net income 130.1MFree cash flow 264.0MAfter stock-based pay 240.6M
2025Net income -137.3MFree cash flow 396.3MAfter stock-based pay 357.6M
2017201820182019202020212022202320242025
Where 10 years of operating cash went, 2017–2025
4.9B generated by the business. Each band is its share of that total.
Reinvested in the business 42%2.1B
Acquisitions 49%2.4B
Dividends 17%824.5M
Share buybacks 38%1.8B
More than it generated: funded with cash or new debt -46%-2.2B
Over the same years it paid 213.1M in stock. The share count fell 26.9%. 1.6B of the buybacks went beyond offsetting that dilution.
Per share
Earnings per shareFree cash flow per shareDividend per share
$-5.00$0.00$5.00$10.00
2017Earnings per share $1.62Free cash flow per share $2.47Dividend per share $0.67
2018
2018Earnings per share $3.01Free cash flow per share $1.78Dividend per share $0.77
2019Earnings per share $-1.53Free cash flow per share $2.36Dividend per share $0.86
2020Earnings per share $4.68Free cash flow per share $7.73Dividend per share $0.98
2021Earnings per share $7.57Free cash flow per share $3.91Dividend per share $1.26
2022Earnings per share $9.00Free cash flow per share $2.63Dividend per share $1.44
2023Earnings per share $5.96Free cash flow per share $6.30Dividend per share $1.59
2024Earnings per share $1.93Free cash flow per share $3.92Dividend per share $1.67
2025Earnings per share $-2.08Free cash flow per share $6.01Dividend per share $1.71
2017201820182019202020212022202320242025
Shares outstanding
Diluted shares
60.0M70.0M80.0M90.0M100.0M
2017Diluted shares 90.1M
2018
2018Diluted shares 88.2M
2019Diluted shares 85.6M
2020Diluted shares 79.7M
2021Diluted shares 78.4M
2022Diluted shares 75.2M
2023Diluted shares 70.5M
2024Diluted shares 67.4M
2025Diluted shares 65.9M
2017201820182019202020212022202320242025
How strong is the balance sheet?
Debt is not bad in itself; debt the business cannot service in a bad year is. Net debt is debt minus cash, and below zero the company holds more cash than it owes.
Net debt
-1.0B01.0B2.0B3.0B
2017Net debt -11.4M
2018
2018Net debt 926.4M
2019Net debt 789.0M
2020Net debt 431.8M
2021Net debt 1.5B
2022Net debt 1.9B
2023Net debt 2.0B
2024Net debt 2.1B
2025Net debt 1.8B
2017201820182019202020212022202320242025
Net debt ÷ EBITDA
7.3×
Interest coverage
-0× operating income ÷ interest
Current ratio
1.44 current assets ÷ current liabilities
Cash conversion cycle
110 days collects in 36d, stock 108d, pays in 34d
Three classic screens of the accounts
Each asks a different question of the same statements — is it improving, does it look like a company heading for distress, do the accounts resemble ones that were manipulated. None is a verdict; each shows what moves it.
Piotroski F-score
Is the business improving? Nine yes-or-no tests, this year against last.
5of 9 tests passed
✕ProfitableReturn on assets above zerofailed
✓Cash from operationsOperating cash flow above zeropassed
✕Profitability improvedReturn on assets higher than a year beforefailed
✓Profit backed by cashOperating cash flow above net income (low accruals)passed
✓Less long-term debtLong-term debt as a share of assets fellpassed
✕More liquidCurrent ratio higher than a year beforefailed
✓No new sharesShare count did not growpassed
✕Better gross marginGross margin higher than a year beforefailed
✓Sells more per assetAsset turnover higher than a year beforepassed
Where it misleads: it measures change, not level. An excellent business that stood still for a year scores low; a poor one recovering from a disaster scores high.
Altman Z''-score
Does the balance sheet look like those of companies that went bankrupt?
3.26safe zone
1.12.6
Working capital ÷ assets 0.12 × 6.56+0.78
Retained earnings ÷ assets 0.63 × 3.26+2.06
Operating income ÷ assets -0.01 × 6.72-0.05
Equity ÷ liabilities 0.44 × 1.05+0.46
Where it misleads: buybacks. A company that returns so much cash that its equity turns small or negative sinks the last two ratios without being anywhere near bankruptcy. Banks and insurers do not fit the model at all.
Beneish M-score
Do the accounts resemble those of companies that manipulated their earnings?
-2.93below the -1.78 line
-1.78
Receivables vs sales 1.19+1.09
Gross margin slipping 1.04+0.55
Soft assets 0.94+0.38
Sales growth 1.02+0.91
Slower depreciation 0.96+0.11
Overheads vs sales 1.11-0.19
Profit not in cash -0.13-0.62
Leverage rising 1.02-0.33
Where it misleads: fast growth and acquisitions. Sales growth carries a heavy weight, so a company growing 50% a year scores like a suspect without having done anything. It is a screen from a 1999 study, not an accusation.
Where the statements disagree
Cross-checks between the income statement, the balance sheet and the cash flow for the latest year, each with the benign reading and the worrying one.
Receivables are growing 22% against revenue growing 2%.
Benign
A shift towards larger customers on longer terms, or sales concentrated at the end of the period.
Worrying
Sales are being made on looser credit, or revenue has been booked that may never be collected.
Capital spending (166M) is well below depreciation (292M).
Benign
Mature assets, or a business that has become less capital-intensive.
Worrying
Under-investing: today's profit is being held up by consuming tomorrow's capacity.
The effective tax rate is -0.1%.
Benign
A favourable geographic mix, or legitimate tax credits.
Worrying
Not sustainable; projecting it forward inflates the valuation.
Net debt is 7.3 times EBITDA.
Benign
A stable sector with predictable cash flows and comfortable maturities.
Worrying
Little room if earnings fall; the maturity schedule is what to check.
What is it worth, under which assumptions?
A company is worth the cash it will generate, brought back to today. This model projects revenue with growth that fades over the years, applies a free cash flow margin, and discounts the result at the cost of capital. Every assumption says where it came from, and all of them can be changed.
Value per share, with these assumptions$64.43discounted at 7.4% a year · 63% of it from after year 10
Type a share price on the left to ask the reverse questions: what growth, what margin or what discount rate that price implies.
What the value implies, in the usual multiples
At this model's value
Price ÷ earnings
—
Enterprise value ÷ EBITDA
24.2×
Enterprise value ÷ revenue
1.1×
Free cash flow yield
8.4%
From cash flows to a value per share
10 years of cash flow, today2.2B
Everything after, today3.8B
The whole business6.1B
Minus net debt-1.8B
What belongs to shareholders4.2B
Divided among 65.9M shares: <strong>$64.43</strong> each.
The projection next to its history
Reported free cash flow after stock pay, then the model's. A projection that looks nothing like the past needs a reason.
ReportedProjected
0200.0M400.0M600.0M
2017Reported 206.4M
2018
2018Reported 140.1M
2019Reported 184.3M
2020Reported 588.8M
2021Reported 277.2M
2022Reported 175.9M
2023Reported 421.9M
2024Reported 240.6M
2025Reported 357.6M
2026Projected 281.0M
2027Projected 293.0M
2028Projected 304.9M
2029Projected 316.6M
2030Projected 328.0M
2031Projected 339.1M
2032Projected 349.8M
2033Projected 360.1M
2034Projected 370.0M
2035Projected 379.2M
2017201820202022202420262028203020322034
Year by year
2026
2027
2028
2029
2030
2031
2032
2033
2034
2035
Revenue
5.6B
5.8B
6.1B
6.3B
6.5B
6.8B
7.0B
7.2B
7.4B
7.6B
Growth
4.5%
4.3%
4.1%
3.8%
3.6%
3.4%
3.2%
2.9%
2.7%
2.5%
Cash margin
5.0%
5.0%
5.0%
5.0%
5.0%
5.0%
5.0%
5.0%
5.0%
5.0%
Free cash flow
281.0M
293.0M
304.9M
316.6M
328.0M
339.1M
349.8M
360.1M
370.0M
379.2M
Worth today
261.5M
253.9M
245.9M
237.6M
229.2M
220.6M
211.8M
203.0M
194.1M
185.2M
If the least-known inputs move
Value per share as two inputs change at a time. Neighbouring cells that differ a lot are the conclusion: the value depends on numbers nobody knows to a point.
The discount rate and growth forever
discount ↓ · forever →
1.5%
2.0%
2.5%
3.0%
3.5%
6.4%
68
77
88
103
123
6.9%
59
66
75
86
101
7.4%
51
57
64
73
84
7.9%
45
50
56
63
72
8.4%
40
44
49
54
61
Year-one growth and the final margin
margin ↓ · growth →
0.5%
2.5%
4.5%
6.5%
8.5%
4.0%
37
43
49
56
63
4.5%
43
50
57
64
72
5.0%
50
57
64
73
82
5.5%
56
64
72
81
91
6.0%
62
71
80
89
100
All the inputs moving at once
4,998 valuations, each with growth, final margin, discount rate and growth forever drawn at random around the values on the left (spreads of 3.0%, 2.0%, 1.0% and 0.5%). Not a probability — the spreads are assumptions too — but an honest picture of how wide the answer is.
10th percentile$22.80
Median$64.18
90th percentile$127.45
$0.00$100.00$200.00
Half of the simulations land between <b>$41.22</b> and <b>$93.44</b>; one in ten below $22.80, one in ten above $127.45.
Does the long run make sense?
22.2×The terminal value prices the business in year 10 at 22.2 times that year's EBITDA.
63%of the value comes from after year 10. The more of it, the more the answer depends on the part nobody can see.
Every Form 4 filed in the last twelve months, read line by line: 6 filings by 5 people. Open-market purchases and sales are counted apart from awards, option exercises and shares withheld for taxes.
Bought on the open market—none in the period
Sold on the open market—none in the period
Under pre-arranged plans—of the sales followed a 10b5-1 plan set months earlier
A Form 4 says what happened, when, how many shares and at what price. It does not say why: a sale can be diversification, a tax bill or a plan fixed months earlier, and an award is pay, not a purchase. Nothing here is a reason to buy or sell anything.
Which large funds report holding it
From the Form 13F of the 28 institutions followed on this site, as of the end of their last reported quarter. A 13F is filed up to 45 days later and shows only long positions in US-listed shares.
Accounts from the company's own SEC filings; lines some companies do not report are shown as a dash rather than estimated. The risk-free rate is the 10-year US Treasury yield. A DCF is a way of making assumptions explicit, not a forecast: it states what the company would be worth if the assumptions held. The scores are screens that point where to look, not verdicts. Nothing here is a recommendation to buy or sell.