BBY · Consumer discretionary(retail-radio, tv & consumer electronics stores) · 10 years of annual accounts filed with the SEC · latest fiscal year ended 2026-01-31
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Best BUY Co Inc reported revenue of $41.7 billion in fiscal 2026. Of the $20.5 billion its operations generated over 10 years, 41.2% went to buybacks and 30.0% back into the business. On the accounting screens, it passes 7 of 8 Piotroski tests, its Altman Z'' of 1.85 is in the grey zone and its Beneish M-score is below the -1.78 line; none of the six cross-checks between its statements fires.
Revenue, fiscal 202641.7B
Operating margin3.3%gross margin 22.5%
Return on invested capital—36.3% on average over 4 years
Free cash flow after stock pay1.1B2.7% of revenue
Net debt ÷ EBITDA—net debt —
Piotroski F-score7/8tests of improvement passed
Is it growing?
Revenue and the operating income it turns into. Growth that does not reach operating income is growth bought with margin.
RevenueOperating income
020.0B40.0B60.0B
2018
2018
2019Revenue 42.9BOperating income 1.9B
2020Revenue 43.6BOperating income 2.0B
2021Revenue 47.3BOperating income 2.4B
2022Revenue 51.8BOperating income 3.0B
2023Revenue 46.3BOperating income 1.8B
2024Revenue 43.5BOperating income 1.6B
2025Revenue 41.5BOperating income 1.3B
2026Revenue 41.7BOperating income 1.4B
2018201820192020202120222023202420252026
Compound growth a year
3 yrs
5 yrs
9 yrs
Revenue
-3.4%
-2.5%
—
Operating income
-8.2%
-10.3%
—
Net income
-9.0%
-9.9%
—
Earnings per share
-7.1%
-5.9%
—
Free cash flow per share
+14.4%
-18.0%
—
Dividend per share
+2.6%
+11.8%
—
Shares
-2.1%
-4.2%
—
Falling shares are buybacks: each remaining share owns more of the company.
Does it earn more than its capital costs?
Margins say how much of each sale is kept; return on invested capital says how much the business earns on the money it needs to operate. Growth only creates value when that return is above the cost of the capital.
Return on invested capitalCost of capital today · 10.2%
0.0%20.0%40.0%60.0%
2018
2018
2019Return on invested capital 31.4%
2020Return on invested capital 32.7%
2021Return on invested capital 30.9%
2022Return on invested capital 57.9%
2023Return on invested capital 35.8%
2024Return on invested capital 28.5%
2025Return on invested capital 22.7%
2026
2018201820192020202120222023202420252026
Economic profit
Economic profit
01.0B2.0B3.0B
2018
2018
2019Economic profit 995.9M
2020Economic profit 1.1B
2021Economic profit 1.2B
2022Economic profit 2.0B
2023Economic profit 1.0B
2024Economic profit 775.1M
2025Economic profit 496.5M
2026
2018201820192020202120222023202420252026
(return on capital − cost of capital) × capital invested: the profit left after paying for the money used. Today's cost of capital is applied to every year, since a past one cannot be rebuilt honestly.
Return on equity
36.1%
Return on assets
7.3%
Asset turnover
2.84×
Overheads (SG&A)
18.3% of revenue
Is the profit cash, and where does the cash go?
Net income is an accounting opinion; free cash flow is what was left in the bank after investing. Stock-based pay does not leave the bank — shareholders pay it through dilution — so it is shown taken off as well.
Net incomeFree cash flowAfter stock-based pay
02.0B4.0B6.0B
2018
2018
2019Net income 1.5BFree cash flow 1.6BAfter stock-based pay 1.5B
2020Net income 1.5BFree cash flow 1.8BAfter stock-based pay 1.7B
2021Net income 1.8BFree cash flow 4.2BAfter stock-based pay 4.1B
2022Net income 2.5BFree cash flow 2.5BAfter stock-based pay 2.4B
2023Net income 1.4BFree cash flow 894.0MAfter stock-based pay 756.0M
2024Net income 1.2BFree cash flow 675.0MAfter stock-based pay 530.0M
2025Net income 927.0MFree cash flow 1.4BAfter stock-based pay 1.3B
2026Net income 1.1BFree cash flow 1.3BAfter stock-based pay 1.1B
2018201820192020202120222023202420252026
Where 10 years of operating cash went, 2018–2026
20.5B generated by the business. Each band is its share of that total.
Reinvested in the business 30%6.1B
Acquisitions 11%2.2B
Dividends 27%5.5B
Share buybacks 41%8.4B
More than it generated: funded with cash or new debt -9%-1.8B
Over the same years it paid 1.1B in stock. 7.3B of the buybacks went beyond offsetting that dilution.
Per share
Earnings per shareFree cash flow per shareDividend per share
$0.00$5.00$10.00$15.00$20.00
2018
2018
2019Earnings per share $5.20Free cash flow per share $5.65Dividend per share $1.77
2020Earnings per share $5.75Free cash flow per share $6.80Dividend per share $1.97
2021Earnings per share $6.84Free cash flow per share $16.02Dividend per share $2.16
2022Earnings per share $9.84Free cash flow per share $10.09Dividend per share $2.76
2023Earnings per share $6.29Free cash flow per share $3.96Dividend per share $3.50
2024Earnings per share $5.68Free cash flow per share $3.09Dividend per share $3.67
2025Earnings per share $4.28Free cash flow per share $6.43Dividend per share $3.73
2026Earnings per share $5.04Free cash flow per share $5.93Dividend per share $3.78
2018201820192020202120222023202420252026
Shares outstanding
Diluted shares
200.0M220.0M240.0M260.0M280.0M300.0M
2018
2018
2019Diluted shares 281.4M
2020Diluted shares 268.1M
2021Diluted shares 263.0M
2022Diluted shares 249.3M
2023Diluted shares 225.7M
2024Diluted shares 218.5M
2025Diluted shares 216.6M
2026Diluted shares 212.1M
2018201820192020202120222023202420252026
How strong is the balance sheet?
Debt is not bad in itself; debt the business cannot service in a bad year is. Net debt is debt minus cash, and below zero the company holds more cash than it owes.
Net debt
-6.0B-4.0B-2.0B0
2018
2018
2019Net debt -592.0M
2020Net debt -958.0M
2021Net debt -4.2B
2022Net debt -1.7B
2023Net debt -698.0M
2024Net debt -282.0M
2025Net debt -424.0M
2026
2018201820192020202120222023202420252026
Net debt ÷ EBITDA
—
Interest coverage
30× operating income ÷ interest
Current ratio
1.11 current assets ÷ current liabilities
Cash conversion cycle
15 days collects in 9d, stock 59d, pays in 54d
Three classic screens of the accounts
Each asks a different question of the same statements — is it improving, does it look like a company heading for distress, do the accounts resemble ones that were manipulated. None is a verdict; each shows what moves it.
Piotroski F-score
Is the business improving? Nine yes-or-no tests, this year against last.
7of 8 tests passed
✓ProfitableReturn on assets above zeropassed
✓Cash from operationsOperating cash flow above zeropassed
✓Profitability improvedReturn on assets higher than a year beforepassed
✓Profit backed by cashOperating cash flow above net income (low accruals)passed
–Less long-term debtLong-term debt as a share of assets fell — not reportedno data
✓More liquidCurrent ratio higher than a year beforepassed
✓No new sharesShare count did not growpassed
✕Better gross marginGross margin higher than a year beforefailed
✓Sells more per assetAsset turnover higher than a year beforepassed
Where it misleads: it measures change, not level. An excellent business that stood still for a year scores low; a poor one recovering from a disaster scores high.
Altman Z''-score
Does the balance sheet look like those of companies that went bankrupt?
1.85grey zone
1.12.6
Working capital ÷ assets 0.06 × 6.56+0.37
Retained earnings ÷ assets 0.18 × 3.26+0.58
Operating income ÷ assets 0.09 × 6.72+0.64
Equity ÷ liabilities 0.25 × 1.05+0.27
Where it misleads: buybacks. A company that returns so much cash that its equity turns small or negative sinks the last two ratios without being anywhere near bankruptcy. Banks and insurers do not fit the model at all.
Beneish M-score
Do the accounts resemble those of companies that manipulated their earnings?
-2.73below the -1.78 line
-1.78
Receivables vs sales 1.00+0.92
Gross margin slipping 1.01+0.53
Soft assets 0.95+0.38
Sales growth 1.00+0.90
Slower depreciation 0.98+0.11
Overheads vs sales 0.99-0.17
Profit not in cash -0.06-0.28
Leverage rising 0.84-0.28
Where it misleads: fast growth and acquisitions. Sales growth carries a heavy weight, so a company growing 50% a year scores like a suspect without having done anything. It is a screen from a 1999 study, not an accusation.
Where the statements disagree
Cross-checks between the income statement, the balance sheet and the cash flow for the latest year, each with the benign reading and the worrying one.
None of the six cross-checks fires for the latest year: receivables and inventory move with revenue, profit turns into cash, investment keeps up with depreciation, the tax rate is ordinary and debt is moderate.
What is it worth, under which assumptions?
A company is worth the cash it will generate, brought back to today. This model projects revenue with growth that fades over the years, applies a free cash flow margin, and discounts the result at the cost of capital. Every assumption says where it came from, and all of them can be changed.
Value per share, with these assumptions$37.44discounted at 10.2% a year · 47% of it from after year 10
Type a share price on the left to ask the reverse questions: what growth, what margin or what discount rate that price implies.
What the value implies, in the usual multiples
At this model's value
Price ÷ earnings
7.4×
Enterprise value ÷ EBITDA
3.6×
Enterprise value ÷ revenue
0.2×
Free cash flow yield
14.1%
From cash flows to a value per share
10 years of cash flow, today4.2B
Everything after, today3.7B
The whole business7.9B
Minus net debt-0
What belongs to shareholders7.9B
Divided among 212.1M shares: <strong>$37.44</strong> each.
The projection next to its history
Reported free cash flow after stock pay, then the model's. A projection that looks nothing like the past needs a reason.
ReportedProjected
02.0B4.0B6.0B
2018
2018
2019Reported 1.5B
2020Reported 1.7B
2021Reported 4.1B
2022Reported 2.4B
2023Reported 756.0M
2024Reported 530.0M
2025Reported 1.3B
2026Reported 1.1B
2027Projected 711.5M
2028Projected 697.6M
2029Projected 688.0M
2030Projected 682.2M
2031Projected 680.3M
2032Projected 682.2M
2033Projected 687.9M
2034Projected 697.5M
2035Projected 711.0M
2036Projected 728.8M
2018201920212023202520272029203120332035
Year by year
2027
2028
2029
2030
2031
2032
2033
2034
2035
2036
Revenue
40.6B
39.9B
39.3B
39.0B
38.9B
39.0B
39.3B
39.8B
40.6B
41.6B
Growth
-2.5%
-1.9%
-1.4%
-0.8%
-0.3%
0.3%
0.8%
1.4%
1.9%
2.5%
Cash margin
1.8%
1.8%
1.8%
1.8%
1.8%
1.8%
1.8%
1.8%
1.8%
1.8%
Free cash flow
711.5M
697.6M
688.0M
682.2M
680.3M
682.2M
687.9M
697.5M
711.0M
728.8M
Worth today
645.8M
574.8M
514.5M
463.1M
419.2M
381.5M
349.2M
321.4M
297.4M
276.7M
If the least-known inputs move
Value per share as two inputs change at a time. Neighbouring cells that differ a lot are the conclusion: the value depends on numbers nobody knows to a point.
The discount rate and growth forever
discount ↓ · forever →
1.5%
2.0%
2.5%
3.0%
3.5%
9.2%
39
41
43
45
49
9.7%
36
38
40
42
45
10.2%
34
36
37
39
42
10.7%
32
34
35
37
39
11.2%
31
32
33
35
36
Year-one growth and the final margin
margin ↓ · growth →
-6.5%
-4.5%
-2.5%
-0.5%
1.5%
1.4%
27
30
32
35
38
1.6%
30
32
35
38
41
1.8%
32
34
37
41
44
1.9%
34
37
40
44
47
2.1%
36
39
43
47
51
All the inputs moving at once
5,000 valuations, each with growth, final margin, discount rate and growth forever drawn at random around the values on the left (spreads of 3.0%, 2.0%, 1.0% and 0.5%). Not a probability — the spreads are assumptions too — but an honest picture of how wide the answer is.
10th percentile$-1.16
Median$37.46
90th percentile$80.90
$0.00$50.00$100.00
Half of the simulations land between <b>$17.12</b> and <b>$59.85</b>; one in ten below $-1.16, one in ten above $80.90.
Does the long run make sense?
4.4×The terminal value prices the business in year 10 at 4.4 times that year's EBITDA.
8%To grow 2.5% forever while reinvesting 31% of its after-tax operating profit, the business must earn 8% on the new capital — it has earned 36% on average over the last five years.
47%of the value comes from after year 10. The more of it, the more the answer depends on the part nobody can see.
What lenders charge, after the tax saving on interest: 6.67% × (1 − 24.0%) = <strong>5.07%</strong>.
Weighted by how much of each the company uses (book value (no price given)): <strong>10.17%</strong>, the rate every future cash flow is discounted at.
What it has filed lately
The last twelve months at the SEC, most important first: annual and quarterly reports, events, large holders and insiders.
Every Form 4 filed in the last twelve months, read line by line: 6 filings by 4 people. Open-market purchases and sales are counted apart from awards, option exercises and shares withheld for taxes.
Bought on the open market—none in the period
Sold on the open market$112.4M11 sale(s) by 2 insider(s)
Under pre-arranged plans64%of the sales followed a 10b5-1 plan set months earlier
Sold on the open market · pre-arranged plan· indirect
11,614
$83.44
$969,119
10.4M
A Form 4 says what happened, when, how many shares and at what price. It does not say why: a sale can be diversification, a tax bill or a plan fixed months earlier, and an award is pay, not a purchase. Nothing here is a reason to buy or sell anything.
Which large funds report holding it
From the Form 13F of the 28 institutions followed on this site, as of the end of their last reported quarter. A 13F is filed up to 45 days later and shows only long positions in US-listed shares.
Accounts from the company's own SEC filings; lines some companies do not report are shown as a dash rather than estimated. The risk-free rate is the 10-year US Treasury yield. A DCF is a way of making assumptions explicit, not a forecast: it states what the company would be worth if the assumptions held. The scores are screens that point where to look, not verdicts. Nothing here is a recommendation to buy or sell.
