BBWI · Consumer discretionary(retail-retail stores, nec) · 10 years of annual accounts filed with the SEC · latest fiscal year ended 2026-01-31
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Bath & Body Works, Inc. reported revenue of $7.3 billion in fiscal 2026, after shrinking 5.9% a year over the previous 9 years. Its operating margin held steady at about 15.4% from 2017, and it earned 31.7% on its invested capital in the latest year. Of the $13.6 billion its operations generated over 10 years, 38.9% went to buybacks and 32.1% back into the business; the share count fell 28.2%. On the accounting screens, it passes 5 of 9 Piotroski tests, its Altman Z'' of 0.91 is in the distress zone and its Beneish M-score is below the -1.78 line; none of the six cross-checks between its statements fires.
Revenue, fiscal 20267.3B-5.9% a year over 9 years
Operating margin15.4%gross margin 43.7%
Return on invested capital31.7%39.2% on average over 5 years
Free cash flow after stock pay834.0M11.4% of revenue
Net debt ÷ EBITDA2.1×net debt 2.9B
Piotroski F-score5/9tests of improvement passed
Is it growing?
Revenue and the operating income it turns into. Growth that does not reach operating income is growth bought with margin.
RevenueOperating income
05B10B15B
2017Revenue 12.6BOperating income 2.0B
2018Revenue 12.6BOperating income 1.7B
2019Revenue 13.2BOperating income 1.2B
2020Revenue 5.4BOperating income 1.0B
2021Revenue 6.4BOperating income 1.6B
2022Revenue 7.9BOperating income 2.0B
2023Revenue 7.6BOperating income 1.4B
2024Revenue 7.4BOperating income 1.3B
2025Revenue 7.3BOperating income 1.3B
2026Revenue 7.3BOperating income 1.1B
2017201820192020202120222023202420252026
Compound growth a year
3 yrs
5 yrs
9 yrs
Revenue
-1.2%
+2.5%
-5.9%
Operating income
-6.5%
-6.8%
-6.2%
Net income
-6.7%
-5.1%
-6.2%
Earnings per share
-3.3%
+0.7%
-2.7%
Free cash flow per share
+5.7%
-8.5%
+2.1%
Dividend per share
+0.0%
+22.0%
-17.2%
Shares
-3.6%
-5.7%
-3.6%
Falling shares are buybacks: each remaining share owns more of the company.
Does it earn more than its capital costs?
Margins say how much of each sale is kept; return on invested capital says how much the business earns on the money it needs to operate. Growth only creates value when that return is above the cost of the capital.
Return on invested capitalCost of capital today · 5.2%
0%20%40%60%
2017Return on invested capital 27.3%
2018Return on invested capital 25.7%
2019Return on invested capital 18.8%
2020Return on invested capital 19.4%
2021Return on invested capital 21.7%
2022Return on invested capital 45.5%
2023Return on invested capital 39.4%
2024Return on invested capital 40.0%
2025Return on invested capital 39.3%
2026Return on invested capital 31.7%
2017201820192020202120222023202420252026
Economic profit
Economic profit
00.5B1.0B1.5B
2017Economic profit 1.1B
2018Economic profit 1.0B
2019Economic profit 671.7M
2020Economic profit 575.6M
2021Economic profit 939.0M
2022Economic profit 1.3B
2023Economic profit 906.9M
2024Economic profit 961.0M
2025Economic profit 852.4M
2026Economic profit 692.3M
2017201820192020202120222023202420252026
(return on capital − cost of capital) × capital invested: the profit left after paying for the money used. Today's cost of capital is applied to every year, since a past one cannot be rebuilt honestly.
Return on equity
—
Return on assets
12.8%
Asset turnover
1.44×
Overheads (SG&A)
28.3% of revenue
Is the profit cash, and where does the cash go?
Net income is an accounting opinion; free cash flow is what was left in the bank after investing. Stock-based pay does not leave the bank — shareholders pay it through dilution — so it is shown taken off as well.
Net incomeFree cash flowAfter stock-based pay
-1B01B2B
2017Net income 1.2BFree cash flow 1.0BAfter stock-based pay 904.0M
2018Net income 983.0MFree cash flow 699.0MAfter stock-based pay 597.0M
2019Net income 644.0MFree cash flow 748.0MAfter stock-based pay 651.0M
2020Net income -366.0MFree cash flow 778.0MAfter stock-based pay 691.0M
2021Net income 844.0MFree cash flow 1.8BAfter stock-based pay 1.8B
2022Net income 1.3BFree cash flow 1.2BAfter stock-based pay 1.2B
2023Net income 800.0MFree cash flow 816.0MAfter stock-based pay 778.0M
2024Net income 878.0MFree cash flow 656.0MAfter stock-based pay 613.0M
2025Net income 798.0MFree cash flow 660.0MAfter stock-based pay 620.0M
2026Net income 649.0MFree cash flow 865.0MAfter stock-based pay 834.0M
2017201820192020202120222023202420252026
Where 10 years of operating cash went, 2017–2026
13.6B generated by the business. Each band is its share of that total.
Reinvested in the business 32%4.4B
Acquisitions 0%33.0M
Dividends 28%3.9B
Share buybacks 39%5.3B
Kept, or used to pay down debt 0%50.0M
Over the same years it paid 630.0M in stock. The share count fell 28.2%. 4.7B of the buybacks went beyond offsetting that dilution.
Per share
Earnings per shareFree cash flow per shareDividend per share
-$2$0$2$4$6$8
2017Earnings per share $3.98Free cash flow per share $3.44Dividend per share $4.36
2018Earnings per share $3.43Free cash flow per share $2.44Dividend per share $2.39
2019Earnings per share $2.31Free cash flow per share $2.68Dividend per share $2.39
2020Earnings per share $-1.32Free cash flow per share $2.80Dividend per share $1.19
2021Earnings per share $3.00Free cash flow per share $6.44Dividend per share $0.30
2022Earnings per share $4.88Free cash flow per share $4.48Dividend per share $0.44
2023Earnings per share $3.43Free cash flow per share $3.50Dividend per share $0.80
2024Earnings per share $3.83Free cash flow per share $2.86Dividend per share $0.79
2025Earnings per share $3.61Free cash flow per share $2.99Dividend per share $0.80
2026Earnings per share $3.11Free cash flow per share $4.14Dividend per share $0.80
2017201820192020202120222023202420252026
Shares outstanding
Diluted shares
200M225M250M275M300M
2017Diluted shares 291.0M
2018Diluted shares 287.0M
2019Diluted shares 279.0M
2020Diluted shares 278.0M
2021Diluted shares 281.0M
2022Diluted shares 273.0M
2023Diluted shares 233.0M
2024Diluted shares 229.0M
2025Diluted shares 221.0M
2026Diluted shares 209.0M
2017201820192020202120222023202420252026
Debt and liquidity
Debt is not bad in itself; debt the business cannot service in a bad year is. Net debt is debt minus cash, and below zero the company holds more cash than it owes.
Net debt
02B4B6B
2017Net debt 3.8B
2018Net debt 4.3B
2019Net debt 4.4B
2020Net debt 4.0B
2021Net debt 2.8B
2022Net debt 2.9B
2023Net debt 3.6B
2024Net debt 3.3B
2025Net debt 3.2B
2026Net debt 2.9B
2017201820192020202120222023202420252026
Net debt ÷ EBITDA
2.1×
Interest coverage
4× operating income ÷ interest
Current ratio
1.27 current assets ÷ current liabilities
Cash conversion cycle
30 days collects in 9d, stock 62d, pays in 41d
Three classic screens of the accounts
Each asks a different question of the same statements — is it improving, does it look like a company heading for distress, do the accounts resemble ones that were manipulated. None is a verdict; each shows what moves it.
Piotroski F-score
Is the business improving? Nine yes-or-no tests, this year against last.
5of 9 tests passed
✓ProfitableReturn on assets above zeropassed
✓Cash from operationsOperating cash flow above zeropassed
✕Profitability improvedReturn on assets higher than a year beforefailed
✓Profit backed by cashOperating cash flow above net income (low accruals)passed
✓Less long-term debtLong-term debt as a share of assets fellpassed
✕More liquidCurrent ratio higher than a year beforefailed
✓No new sharesShare count did not growpassed
✕Better gross marginGross margin higher than a year beforefailed
✕Sells more per assetAsset turnover higher than a year beforefailed
Where it misleads: it measures change, not level. An excellent business that stood still for a year scores low; a poor one recovering from a disaster scores high.
Altman Z''-score
Does the balance sheet look like those of companies that went bankrupt?
0.91distress zone
1.12.6
Working capital ÷ assets 0.08 × 6.56+0.55
Retained earnings ÷ assets -0.28 × 3.26-0.92
Operating income ÷ assets 0.22 × 6.72+1.49
Equity ÷ liabilities -0.20 × 1.05-0.21
Where it misleads: buybacks. A company that returns so much cash that its equity turns small or negative sinks the last two ratios without being anywhere near bankruptcy. Banks and insurers do not fit the model at all.
Beneish M-score
Do the accounts resemble those of companies that manipulated their earnings?
-3.01below the -1.78 line
-1.78
Receivables vs sales 0.88+0.81
Gross margin slipping 1.01+0.53
Soft assets 0.96+0.39
Sales growth 1.00+0.89
Slower depreciation 1.09+0.13
Overheads vs sales 1.05-0.18
Profit not in cash -0.09-0.42
Leverage rising 0.98-0.32
Where it misleads: fast growth and acquisitions. Sales growth carries a heavy weight, so a company growing 50% a year scores like a suspect without having done anything. It is a screen from a 1999 study, not an accusation.
Where the statements disagree
Cross-checks between the income statement, the balance sheet and the cash flow for the latest year, each with the benign reading and the worrying one.
None of the six cross-checks fires for the latest year: receivables and inventory move with revenue, profit turns into cash, investment keeps up with depreciation, the tax rate is ordinary and debt is moderate.
What is it worth, under which assumptions?
A company is worth the cash it will generate, brought back to today. This model projects revenue with growth that fades over the years, applies a free cash flow margin, and discounts the result at the cost of capital. Every assumption says where it came from, and all of them can be changed.
77% of the value comes from after year 10: this valuation rests mostly on the long run, which is exactly what is least known.
Value per share, with these assumptions$159.87discounted at 5.2% a year · 77% of it from after year 10
Type a share price on the left to ask the reverse questions: what growth, what margin or what discount rate that price implies.
What the value implies, in the usual multiples
At this model's value
Price ÷ earnings
51.5×
Enterprise value ÷ EBITDA
26.3×
Enterprise value ÷ revenue
5.0×
Free cash flow yield
2.5%
From cash flows to a value per share
10 years of cash flow, today8.4B
Everything after, today28.0B
The whole business36.4B
Minus net debt-2.9B
What belongs to shareholders33.4B
Divided among 209.0M shares: <strong>$159.87</strong> each.
The projection next to its history
Reported free cash flow after stock pay, then the model's. A projection that looks nothing like the past needs a reason.
ReportedProjected
00.5B1.0B1.5B2.0B
2017Reported 904.0M
2018Reported 597.0M
2019Reported 651.0M
2020Reported 691.0M
2021Reported 1.8B
2022Reported 1.2B
2023Reported 778.0M
2024Reported 613.0M
2025Reported 620.0M
2026Reported 834.0M
2027Projected 988.1M
2028Projected 1.0B
2029Projected 1.0B
2030Projected 1.1B
2031Projected 1.1B
2032Projected 1.1B
2033Projected 1.1B
2034Projected 1.2B
2035Projected 1.2B
2036Projected 1.2B
2017201920212023202520272029203120332035
Year by year
2027
2028
2029
2030
2031
2032
2033
2034
2035
2036
Revenue
7.5B
7.7B
7.9B
8.0B
8.2B
8.5B
8.7B
8.9B
9.1B
9.3B
Growth
2.5%
2.5%
2.5%
2.5%
2.5%
2.5%
2.5%
2.5%
2.5%
2.5%
Cash margin
13.2%
13.2%
13.2%
13.2%
13.2%
13.2%
13.2%
13.2%
13.2%
13.2%
Free cash flow
988.1M
1.0B
1.0B
1.1B
1.1B
1.1B
1.1B
1.2B
1.2B
1.2B
Worth today
939.1M
914.8M
891.2M
868.2M
845.7M
823.9M
802.6M
781.9M
761.7M
742.0M
If the least-known inputs move
Value per share as two inputs change at a time. Neighbouring cells that differ a lot are the conclusion: the value depends on numbers nobody knows to a point.
The discount rate and growth forever
discount ↓ · forever →
1.5%
2.0%
2.5%
3.0%
3.5%
4.2%
166
203
261
366
618
4.7%
138
163
199
256
359
5.2%
118
135
160
195
251
5.7%
102
115
133
157
191
6.2%
90
100
113
130
154
Year-one growth and the final margin
margin ↓ · growth →
-1.5%
0.5%
2.5%
4.5%
6.5%
10.6%
105
117
129
142
157
11.9%
118
131
144
159
176
13.2%
131
145
160
176
194
14.5%
143
159
175
193
213
15.9%
156
173
191
211
232
All the inputs moving at once
4,685 valuations, each with growth, final margin, discount rate and growth forever drawn at random around the values on the left (spreads of 3.0%, 2.0%, 1.0% and 0.5%). Not a probability — the spreads are assumptions too — but an honest picture of how wide the answer is.
10th percentile$93.01
Median$154.71
90th percentile$292.89
$100.00$200.00$300.00$400.00
Half of the simulations land between <b>$117.40</b> and <b>$212.48</b>; one in ten below $93.01, one in ten above $292.89.
Does the long run make sense?
26.3×The terminal value prices the business in year 10 at 26.3 times that year's EBITDA.
Free growthIn year 10 free cash flow is at or above after-tax operating profit, yet the model grows 2.5% forever. Growth needs reinvestment; this assumes it comes for free, which flatters the terminal value.
77%of the value comes from after year 10. The more of it, the more the answer depends on the part nobody can see.
Every Form 4 filed in the last twelve months, read line by line: 6 filings by 6 people. Open-market purchases and sales are counted apart from awards, option exercises and shares withheld for taxes.
Bought on the open market—none in the period
Sold on the open market—none in the period
Under pre-arranged plans—of the sales followed a 10b5-1 plan set months earlier
A Form 4 says what happened, when, how many shares and at what price. It does not say why: a sale can be diversification, a tax bill or a plan fixed months earlier, and an award is pay, not a purchase. Nothing here is a reason to buy or sell anything.
Which large funds report holding it
From the Form 13F of the 28 institutions followed on this site, as of the end of their last reported quarter. A 13F is filed up to 45 days later and shows only long positions in US-listed shares.
Accounts from the company's own SEC filings; lines some companies do not report are shown as a dash rather than estimated. The risk-free rate is the 10-year US Treasury yield. A DCF is a way of making assumptions explicit, not a forecast: it states what the company would be worth if the assumptions held. The scores are screens that point where to look, not verdicts. Nothing here is a recommendation to buy or sell.