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Axalta Coating Systems Ltd.

AXTA · Materials (paints, varnishes, lacquers, enamels & allied prods) · 10 years of annual accounts filed with the SEC · latest fiscal year ended 2025-12-31

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Axalta Coating Systems Ltd. reported revenue of $5.1 billion in fiscal 2025, after growing 1.8% a year over the previous 9 years. Its operating margin widened from 8.3% in 2017 to 14.4%, and it earned 9.2% on its invested capital in the latest year. Of the $4.8 billion its operations generated over 10 years, 36.9% went to acquisitions and 25.4% back into the business; the share count fell 11.8%. On the accounting screens, it passes 7 of 9 Piotroski tests, its Altman Z'' of 3.25 is in the safe zone and its Beneish M-score is below the -1.78 line; 1 of the six cross-checks between its statements fires.

Revenue, fiscal 2025 5.1B +1.8% a year over 9 years
Operating margin 14.4% gross margin 34.4%
Return on invested capital 9.2% 8.2% on average over 5 years
Free cash flow after stock pay 428.0M 8.4% of revenue
Net debt ÷ EBITDA 2.5× net debt 2.5B
Piotroski F-score 7/9 tests of improvement passed

Is it growing?

Revenue and the operating income it turns into. Growth that does not reach operating income is growth bought with margin.

RevenueOperating income
Compound growth a year
3 yrs5 yrs9 yrs
Revenue+1.6%+6.5%+1.8%
Operating income+20.2%+19.2%+8.1%
Net income+25.3%+25.5%+29.6%
Earnings per share+26.3%+27.6%+31.4%
Free cash flow per share+48.1%+2.9%+2.4%
Shares-0.8%-1.7%-1.4%

Falling shares are buybacks: each remaining share owns more of the company.

Does it earn more than its capital costs?

Margins say how much of each sale is kept; return on invested capital says how much the business earns on the money it needs to operate. Growth only creates value when that return is above the cost of the capital.

GrossOperatingNetFree cash flow

Return on invested capital

Return on invested capital Cost of capital today · 6.5%

Economic profit

Economic profit

(return on capital − cost of capital) × capital invested: the profit left after paying for the money used. Today's cost of capital is applied to every year, since a past one cannot be rebuilt honestly.

Return on equity
16.1%
Return on assets
5.0%
Asset turnover
0.67×
Research & development
1.4% of revenue
Overheads (SG&A)
15.7% of revenue

Is the profit cash, and where does the cash go?

Net income is an accounting opinion; free cash flow is what was left in the bank after investing. Stock-based pay does not leave the bank — shareholders pay it through dilution — so it is shown taken off as well.

Net incomeFree cash flowAfter stock-based pay

Where 10 years of operating cash went, 2017–2025

4.8B generated by the business. Each band is its share of that total.

  • Reinvested in the business 25% 1.2B
  • Acquisitions 37% 1.8B
  • Dividends 0% 0
  • Share buybacks 25% 1.2B
  • Kept, or used to pay down debt 13% 600.7M

Over the same years it paid 222.5M in stock. The share count fell 11.8%. 979.8M of the buybacks went beyond offsetting that dilution.

Per share

Earnings per shareFree cash flow per shareDividend per share

Shares outstanding

Diluted shares

Debt and liquidity

Debt is not bad in itself; debt the business cannot service in a bad year is. Net debt is debt minus cash, and below zero the company holds more cash than it owes.

Net debt
Net debt ÷ EBITDA
2.5×
Interest coverage
4× operating income ÷ interest
Current ratio
2.06 current assets ÷ current liabilities
Cash conversion cycle
85 days collects in 72d, stock 82d, pays in 69d

Three classic screens of the accounts

Each asks a different question of the same statements — is it improving, does it look like a company heading for distress, do the accounts resemble ones that were manipulated. None is a verdict; each shows what moves it.

Piotroski F-score

Is the business improving? Nine yes-or-no tests, this year against last.

7of 9 tests passed
  • ProfitableReturn on assets above zero passed
  • Cash from operationsOperating cash flow above zero passed
  • Profitability improvedReturn on assets higher than a year before failed
  • Profit backed by cashOperating cash flow above net income (low accruals) passed
  • Less long-term debtLong-term debt as a share of assets fell passed
  • More liquidCurrent ratio higher than a year before passed
  • No new sharesShare count did not grow passed
  • Better gross marginGross margin higher than a year before passed
  • Sells more per assetAsset turnover higher than a year before failed

Where it misleads: it measures change, not level. An excellent business that stood still for a year scores low; a poor one recovering from a disaster scores high.

Altman Z''-score

Does the balance sheet look like those of companies that went bankrupt?

3.25safe zone
  • Working capital ÷ assets 0.19 × 6.56+1.25
  • Retained earnings ÷ assets 0.27 × 3.26+0.88
  • Operating income ÷ assets 0.10 × 6.72+0.65
  • Equity ÷ liabilities 0.45 × 1.05+0.47

Where it misleads: buybacks. A company that returns so much cash that its equity turns small or negative sinks the last two ratios without being anywhere near bankruptcy. Banks and insurers do not fit the model at all.

Beneish M-score

Do the accounts resemble those of companies that manipulated their earnings?

-2.62below the -1.78 line
  • Receivables vs sales 1.03+0.95
  • Gross margin slipping 0.99+0.52
  • Soft assets 0.99+0.40
  • Sales growth 0.97+0.87
  • Slower depreciation 1.04+0.12
  • Overheads vs sales 0.98-0.17
  • Profit not in cash -0.04-0.17
  • Leverage rising 0.91-0.30

Where it misleads: fast growth and acquisitions. Sales growth carries a heavy weight, so a company growing 50% a year scores like a suspect without having done anything. It is a screen from a 1999 study, not an accusation.

Where the statements disagree

Cross-checks between the income statement, the balance sheet and the cash flow for the latest year, each with the benign reading and the worrying one.

Capital spending (196M) is well below depreciation (295M).

Benign

Mature assets, or a business that has become less capital-intensive.

Worrying

Under-investing: today's profit is being held up by consuming tomorrow's capacity.

What is it worth, under which assumptions?

A company is worth the cash it will generate, brought back to today. This model projects revenue with growth that fades over the years, applies a free cash flow margin, and discounts the result at the cost of capital. Every assumption says where it came from, and all of them can be changed.

Revenue
M $

revenue of fiscal 2025

%

revenue grew +6.5% a year over the last 5 years; it fades to the terminal rate by the last year

yrs

ten years for growth to fade to the terminal rate

Cash from each sale
%

free cash flow to the firm after stock-based pay ÷ revenue, last 3 fiscal years together

%

the margin in year ten; by default the business keeps today's

The long run
%

growth forever after year ten, below the risk-free rate: no company outgrows the economy forever

The discount rate
%

10-year US Treasury par yield (U.S. Treasury), 2026-09-28

not measured on this public page, which uses only public filings: 1.0 assumes it moves like the market. Sign in to measure it from prices

%

the extra return demanded for holding shares; it cannot be measured, and 4–6% is the common range

%

interest expense ÷ debt = 5.5%, kept between the risk-free rate and +8 points

%

effective rate in the last fiscal year, 30.6%, kept within 0–35%

The price
$

Type the price you see at your broker. It is used only for the reverse questions: what that price implies.

Back to the defaults

SEC from the filings Treasury the 10-year yield measured from prices assumption cannot be measured yours you changed it

Value per share, with these assumptions $65.34 discounted at 6.5% a year · 69% of it from after year 10
$40.1780% of 4,975 simulations$114.33
Cautious $30.48 2.5% growth · 9.2% margin · 7.5% discount · 2.0% forever
Your assumptions $65.34 6.5% growth · 10.8% margin · 6.5% discount · 2.5% forever
Generous $152.65 10.5% growth · 12.4% margin · 5.5% discount · 3.0% forever

Type a share price on the left to ask the reverse questions: what growth, what margin or what discount rate that price implies.

What the value implies, in the usual multiples

At this model's value
Price ÷ earnings37.5×
Enterprise value ÷ EBITDA16.2×
Enterprise value ÷ revenue3.3×
Free cash flow yield3.0%

From cash flows to a value per share

10 years of cash flow, today5.2B
Everything after, today11.6B
The whole business16.7B
Minus net debt-2.5B
What belongs to shareholders14.2B

Divided among 217.0M shares: <strong>$65.34</strong> each.

The projection next to its history

Reported free cash flow after stock pay, then the model's. A projection that looks nothing like the past needs a reason.

ReportedProjected
Year by year
2026202720282029203020312032203320342035
Revenue5.4B5.8B6.1B6.4B6.7B7.0B7.3B7.5B7.7B7.9B
Growth6.5%6.1%5.6%5.2%4.7%4.3%3.8%3.4%2.9%2.5%
Cash margin10.8%10.8%10.8%10.8%10.8%10.8%10.8%10.8%10.8%10.8%
Free cash flow588.5M624.2M659.2M693.3M726.0M757.1M786.1M812.7M836.7M857.6M
Worth today552.4M550.0M545.2M538.2M529.0M517.8M504.7M489.8M473.3M455.3M

If the least-known inputs move

Value per share as two inputs change at a time. Neighbouring cells that differ a lot are the conclusion: the value depends on numbers nobody knows to a point.

The discount rate and growth forever

discount ↓ · forever →1.5%2.0%2.5%3.0%3.5%
5.5% 68 78 91 109 136
6.0% 59 67 76 89 107
6.5% 52 58 65 75 88
7.0% 46 51 57 64 73
7.5% 41 45 50 55 63

Year-one growth and the final margin

margin ↓ · growth →2.5%4.5%6.5%8.5%10.5%
8.6% 42 47 52 58 64
9.7% 47 53 59 65 72
10.8% 53 59 65 72 80
11.9% 58 65 72 80 88
13.0% 64 71 79 87 96

All the inputs moving at once

4,975 valuations, each with growth, final margin, discount rate and growth forever drawn at random around the values on the left (spreads of 3.0%, 2.0%, 1.0% and 0.5%). Not a probability — the spreads are assumptions too — but an honest picture of how wide the answer is.

Half of the simulations land between <b>$50.56</b> and <b>$86.71</b>; one in ten below $40.17, one in ten above $114.33.

Does the long run make sense?

  • 13.6×The terminal value prices the business in year 10 at 13.6 times that year's EBITDA.
  • Free growthIn year 10 free cash flow is at or above after-tax operating profit, yet the model grows 2.5% forever. Growth needs reinvestment; this assumes it comes for free, which flatters the terminal value.
  • 69%of the value comes from after year 10. The more of it, the more the answer depends on the part nobody can see.
The discount rate, taken apart
  1. What shareholders demand (CAPM): 5.24% risk-free + 1.00 beta × 5.0% premium = <strong>10.24%</strong>.
  2. What lenders charge, after the tax saving on interest: 5.50% × (1 − 30.6%) = <strong>3.82%</strong>.
  3. Weighted by how much of each the company uses (book value (no price given)): <strong>6.54%</strong>, the rate every future cash flow is discounted at.

What it has filed lately

The last twelve months at the SEC, most important first: annual and quarterly reports, events, large holders and insiders.

Event 2026-08-05
Published the results of a shareholder vote; published other information
Quarterly 2026-07-29
Quarterly report
Event 2026-07-29
Published other information
Results 2026-07-28
Reported results
Event 2026-07-23
Signed a material agreement; published other information
Event 2026-06-04
Published the results of a shareholder vote
Event 2026-05-28
Signed a material agreement
Quarterly 2026-04-30
Quarterly report
Estimatein 31d
Results for the period ending 2026-09-29

What its own directors and officers did

Every Form 4 filed in the last twelve months, read line by line: 6 filings by 6 people. Open-market purchases and sales are counted apart from awards, option exercises and shares withheld for taxes.

Bought on the open market—none in the period
Sold on the open market—none in the period
Under pre-arranged plans—of the sales followed a 10b5-1 plan set months earlier
Other lines200 awards · 10 option exercises · 10 tax withholdings
DateWhoWhatSharesPriceValueHolds after
19 Sep 2026 Tufano AmySVP & CHRO Exercised options 3,658 — — 23,189
19 Sep 2026 Tufano AmySVP & CHRO Shares withheld for taxes 1,680 $32.20 $54,096 21,509
19 Sep 2026 Tablin-Wolf AlexSVP, GC and Corp. Secretary Exercised options 4,877 — — 28,538
19 Sep 2026 Tablin-Wolf AlexSVP, GC and Corp. Secretary Shares withheld for taxes 2,255 $32.20 $72,611 26,283
14 Aug 2026 Anderson Carl Douglas IiSVP and CFO Exercised options 20,657 — — 99,902
14 Aug 2026 Anderson Carl Douglas IiSVP and CFO Shares withheld for taxes 9,485 $37.31 $353,885 90,417
1 Aug 2026 Massey AnthonyVP, Finance & CAO Exercised options 2,071 — — 46,343
1 Aug 2026 Massey AnthonyVP, Finance & CAO Shares withheld for taxes 641 $35.81 $22,954 45,702
4 Mar 2026 Bowes Timothy Earl JosephPresident, Glbl Ind. Coatings Exercised options 3,500 — — 27,425
4 Mar 2026 Bowes Timothy Earl JosephPresident, Glbl Ind. Coatings Shares withheld for taxes 1,608 $31.40 $50,491 25,817
4 Mar 2026 Weaver Troy D.President, Global Refinish Exercised options 4,374 — — 110,044
4 Mar 2026 Weaver Troy D.President, Global Refinish Shares withheld for taxes 2,009 $31.40 $63,083 108,035
3 Mar 2026 Weaver Troy D.President, Global Refinish Exercised options 8,967 — — 100,566
3 Mar 2026 Weaver Troy D.President, Global Refinish Shares withheld for taxes 4,118 $31.68 $130,458 96,448
3 Mar 2026 Weaver Troy D.President, Global Refinish Exercised options 17,054 — — 113,502
3 Mar 2026 Weaver Troy D.President, Global Refinish Shares withheld for taxes 7,832 $31.68 $248,118 105,670
3 Mar 2026 Bowes Timothy Earl JosephPresident, Glbl Ind. Coatings Shares withheld for taxes 3,706 $31.68 $117,406 15,625
3 Mar 2026 Bowes Timothy Earl JosephPresident, Glbl Ind. Coatings Exercised options 15,348 — — 30,973
3 Mar 2026 Bowes Timothy Earl JosephPresident, Glbl Ind. Coatings Shares withheld for taxes 7,048 $31.68 $223,281 23,925
3 Mar 2026 Bowes Timothy Earl JosephPresident, Glbl Ind. Coatings Exercised options 8,070 — — 19,331

A Form 4 says what happened, when, how many shares and at what price. It does not say why: a sale can be diversification, a tax bill or a plan fixed months earlier, and an award is pay, not a purchase. Nothing here is a reason to buy or sell anything.

Which large funds report holding it

From the Form 13F of the 28 institutions followed on this site, as of the end of their last reported quarter. A 13F is filed up to 45 days later and shows only long positions in US-listed shares.

FundSharesValueShare of the fundSince the quarter before
Norges Bank (Norway's sovereign fund) 30 Jun 2026 2.0M $68.3M 0.0% New
Tudor Investment 30 Jun 2026 242,631 $8.3M 0.0% Added to
Bridgewater Associates 30 Jun 2026 50,914 $1.7M 0.0% Reduced
Baupost Group 30 Jun 2026 1.3M $43,608 0.8% New

All the funds and what they reported ›

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Every figure, year by year

10 fiscal years · 30 measures
2017201820182019202020212022202320242025
Size
Revenue4.4B—4.7B4.5B3.7B4.4B4.9B5.2B5.3B5.1B
Revenue growth———-4.6%-16.6%+18.2%+10.6%+6.1%+1.8%-3.0%
Operating income363.7M—442.1M488.2M305.5M462.4M423.0M588.0M706.0M735.0M
Net income36.7M—207.1M249.0M121.6M263.9M192.0M267.0M391.0M378.0M
Margins
Gross margin36.5%—33.9%34.9%34.2%32.4%29.0%31.2%34.1%34.4%
Operating margin8.3%—9.4%10.9%8.2%10.5%8.7%11.3%13.4%14.4%
Net margin0.8%—4.4%5.6%3.3%6.0%3.9%5.2%7.4%7.4%
Free cash flow margin9.5%—7.5%10.3%11.4%9.9%2.9%8.4%8.3%8.9%
R&D ÷ revenue1.5%—1.6%1.6%1.5%1.4%1.4%1.4%1.4%1.4%
SG&A ÷ revenue21.4%—18.7%18.3%18.6%16.7%15.8%16.2%16.1%15.7%
Cash
Free cash flow415.0M—352.7M460.6M427.2M437.0M143.0M437.0M436.0M453.0M
Stock-based pay38.5M—37.3M15.7M15.1M14.9M22.0M26.0M28.0M25.0M
Free cash flow after stock pay376.5M—315.4M444.9M412.1M422.1M121.0M411.0M408.0M428.0M
Free cash flow to the firm314.0M—334.0M618.0M635.7M515.1M235.4M529.6M665.5M566.2M
Free cash flow ÷ net income11.3×—1.7×1.8×3.5×1.7×0.7×1.6×1.1×1.2×
Capex ÷ revenue2.9%—3.1%2.5%2.2%2.8%3.1%2.7%2.7%3.8%
Returns
Return on invested capital1.7%—6.9%7.1%20.5%6.6%6.1%8.5%10.4%9.2%
Return on equity2.9%—17.2%18.4%8.5%17.7%13.2%15.5%20.4%16.1%
Return on assets0.5%—3.1%3.7%1.7%3.7%2.7%3.7%5.4%5.0%
Asset turnover0.6×—0.7×0.7×0.5×0.6×0.7×0.7×0.7×0.7×
Economic profit-252.5M—16.5M29.0M207.8M3.9M-21.1M103.7M208.0M147.8M
Per share
Earnings per share$0.15—$0.85$1.06$0.52$1.14$0.86$1.20$1.77$1.74
Free cash flow per share$1.69—$1.45$1.95$1.81$1.88$0.64$1.97$1.98$2.09
Dividend per share——————————
Payout ratio——————————
Book value per share$5.23—$4.88$5.41$5.71$5.93$6.54$7.78$8.68$10.81
Diluted shares246.1M—242.9M235.8M236.0M231.9M222.3M221.9M220.4M217.0M
Balance sheet
Net debt3.2B—3.2B2.9B-1.3B3.1B3.1B2.8B2.8B2.5B
Net debt ÷ EBITDA4.5×—4.0×3.4×-2.1×4.0×4.2×3.2×2.9×2.5×
Interest coverage2.5×—2.8×3.0×2.0×3.4×3.0×2.8×3.4×4.2×
Current ratio2.1×—2.2×2.4×2.5×1.9×1.9×2.0×2.0×2.1×
Cash conversion cycle (days)69—6872716478757885
Scores
Piotroski F-score—028567997
Altman Z''1.78—2.022.402.412.212.362.713.033.25
Beneish M———-2.75-2.41-3.68-2.33-2.56-2.65-2.62

Accounts from the company's own SEC filings; lines some companies do not report are shown as a dash rather than estimated. The risk-free rate is the 10-year US Treasury yield. A DCF is a way of making assumptions explicit, not a forecast: it states what the company would be worth if the assumptions held. The scores are screens that point where to look, not verdicts. Nothing here is a recommendation to buy or sell.