APH · Technology(electronic connectors) · 10 years of annual accounts filed with the SEC · latest fiscal year ended 2025-12-31
Amphenol Corp reported revenue of $23.1 billion in fiscal 2025, after growing 15.6% a year over the previous 9 years. Its operating margin widened from 19.2% in 2016 to 25.4%. Of the $20.9 billion its operations generated over 10 years, 58.4% went to acquisitions and 30.9% to buybacks. On the accounting screens, it passes 6 of 8 Piotroski tests, its Altman Z'' of 5.03 is in the safe zone and its Beneish M-score is below the -1.78 line; none of the six cross-checks between its statements fires.
Revenue, fiscal 202523.1B+15.6% a year over 9 years
Operating margin25.4%gross margin 36.9%
Return on invested capital—
Free cash flow after stock pay4.2B18.4% of revenue
Net debt ÷ EBITDA—net debt —
Piotroski F-score6/8tests of improvement passed
Share counts are in today's shares. The SEC's filings restate only recent years after a split, so these jumps were read as splits and the older years scaled to match — otherwise per-share figures would compare different units:
2-for-1 before fiscal 2022; 2-for-1 before fiscal 2019.
Is it growing?
Revenue and the operating income it turns into. Growth that does not reach operating income is growth bought with margin.
RevenueOperating income
010.0B20.0B30.0B
2016Revenue 6.3BOperating income 1.2B
2017Revenue 7.0BOperating income 1.4B
2018Revenue 8.2BOperating income 1.7B
2019Revenue 8.2BOperating income 1.6B
2020Revenue 8.6BOperating income 1.6B
2021Revenue 10.9BOperating income 2.1B
2022Revenue 12.6BOperating income 2.6B
2023Revenue 12.6BOperating income 2.6B
2024Revenue 15.2BOperating income 3.2B
2025Revenue 23.1BOperating income 5.9B
2016201720182019202020212022202320242025
Compound growth a year
3 yrs
5 yrs
9 yrs
Revenue
+22.3%
+21.8%
+15.6%
Operating income
+31.4%
+29.1%
+19.2%
Net income
+30.9%
+28.8%
+20.1%
Earnings per share
+29.7%
+27.9%
+19.9%
Free cash flow per share
+33.5%
+26.2%
+19.2%
Dividend per share
+17.8%
+21.0%
+18.4%
Shares
+0.9%
+0.8%
+0.1%
Falling shares are buybacks: each remaining share owns more of the company.
Does it earn more than its capital costs?
Margins say how much of each sale is kept; return on invested capital says how much the business earns on the money it needs to operate. Growth only creates value when that return is above the cost of the capital.
Return on invested capitalCost of capital today · 10.2%
0.0%5.0%10.0%15.0%
2016Return on invested capital 13.2%
2017Return on invested capital 9.3%
2018
2019
2020
2021
2022
2023
2024
2025
2016201720182019202020212022202320242025
Economic profit
Economic profit
-100.0M0100.0M200.0M
2016Economic profit 198.8M
2017Economic profit -69.4M
2018
2019
2020
2021
2022
2023
2024
2025
2016201720182019202020212022202320242025
(return on capital − cost of capital) × capital invested: the profit left after paying for the money used. Today's cost of capital is applied to every year, since a past one cannot be rebuilt honestly.
Return on equity
31.8%
Return on assets
11.8%
Asset turnover
0.64×
Research & development
2.8% of revenue
Overheads (SG&A)
11.0% of revenue
Is the profit cash, and where does the cash go?
Net income is an accounting opinion; free cash flow is what was left in the bank after investing. Stock-based pay does not leave the bank — shareholders pay it through dilution — so it is shown taken off as well.
Net incomeFree cash flowAfter stock-based pay
02.0B4.0B6.0B
2016Net income 822.9MFree cash flow 886.8MAfter stock-based pay 839.2M
2017Net income 650.5MFree cash flow 917.6MAfter stock-based pay 867.9M
2018Net income 1.2BFree cash flow 802.1MAfter stock-based pay 746.5M
2019Net income 1.2BFree cash flow 1.2BAfter stock-based pay 1.1B
2020Net income 1.2BFree cash flow 1.3BAfter stock-based pay 1.2B
2021Net income 1.6BFree cash flow 1.2BAfter stock-based pay 1.1B
2022Net income 1.9BFree cash flow 1.8BAfter stock-based pay 1.7B
2023Net income 1.9BFree cash flow 2.2BAfter stock-based pay 2.1B
2024Net income 2.4BFree cash flow 2.1BAfter stock-based pay 2.0B
2025Net income 4.3BFree cash flow 4.4BAfter stock-based pay 4.2B
2016201720182019202020212022202320242025
Where 10 years of operating cash went, 2016–2025
20.9B generated by the business. Each band is its share of that total.
Reinvested in the business 20%4.1B
Acquisitions 58%12.2B
Dividends 19%3.9B
Share buybacks 31%6.5B
More than it generated: funded with cash or new debt -28%-5.8B
Over the same years it paid 802.8M in stock. The share count rose 1.3%. 5.7B of the buybacks went beyond offsetting that dilution.
Per share
Earnings per shareFree cash flow per shareDividend per share
$0.00$1.00$2.00$3.00$4.00
2016Earnings per share $0.65Free cash flow per share $0.70Dividend per share $0.14
2017Earnings per share $0.51Free cash flow per share $0.72Dividend per share $0.16
2018Earnings per share $0.96Free cash flow per share $0.64Dividend per share $0.20
2019Earnings per share $0.94Free cash flow per share $0.98Dividend per share $0.23
2020Earnings per share $0.98Free cash flow per share $1.07Dividend per share $0.24
2021Earnings per share $1.27Free cash flow per share $0.94Dividend per share $0.28
2022Earnings per share $1.53Free cash flow per share $1.44Dividend per share $0.38
2023Earnings per share $1.55Free cash flow per share $1.74Dividend per share $0.40
2024Earnings per share $1.92Free cash flow per share $1.70Dividend per share $0.47
2025Earnings per share $3.34Free cash flow per share $3.43Dividend per share $0.63
2016201720182019202020212022202320242025
Shares outstanding
Diluted shares
1.2B1.2B1.3B1.3B
2016Diluted shares 1.3B
2017Diluted shares 1.3B
2018Diluted shares 1.3B
2019Diluted shares 1.2B
2020Diluted shares 1.2B
2021Diluted shares 1.3B
2022Diluted shares 1.2B
2023Diluted shares 1.2B
2024Diluted shares 1.3B
2025Diluted shares 1.3B
2016201720182019202020212022202320242025
How strong is the balance sheet?
Debt is not bad in itself; debt the business cannot service in a bad year is. Net debt is debt minus cash, and below zero the company holds more cash than it owes.
Net debt
0500.0M1.0B1.5B2.0B
2016Net debt 2.0B
2017Net debt 1.8B
2018
2019
2020
2021
2022
2023
2024
2025
2016201720182019202020212022202320242025
Net debt ÷ EBITDA
—
Interest coverage
16× operating income ÷ interest
Current ratio
2.98 current assets ÷ current liabilities
Cash conversion cycle
94 days collects in 75d, stock 86d, pays in 67d
Three classic screens of the accounts
Each asks a different question of the same statements — is it improving, does it look like a company heading for distress, do the accounts resemble ones that were manipulated. None is a verdict; each shows what moves it.
Piotroski F-score
Is the business improving? Nine yes-or-no tests, this year against last.
6of 8 tests passed
✓ProfitableReturn on assets above zeropassed
✓Cash from operationsOperating cash flow above zeropassed
✓Profitability improvedReturn on assets higher than a year beforepassed
✓Profit backed by cashOperating cash flow above net income (low accruals)passed
–Less long-term debtLong-term debt as a share of assets fell — not reportedno data
✓More liquidCurrent ratio higher than a year beforepassed
✕No new sharesShare count did not growfailed
✓Better gross marginGross margin higher than a year beforepassed
✕Sells more per assetAsset turnover higher than a year beforefailed
Where it misleads: it measures change, not level. An excellent business that stood still for a year scores low; a poor one recovering from a disaster scores high.
Altman Z''-score
Does the balance sheet look like those of companies that went bankrupt?
5.03safe zone
1.12.6
Working capital ÷ assets 0.37 × 6.56+2.44
Retained earnings ÷ assets 0.27 × 3.26+0.89
Operating income ÷ assets 0.16 × 6.72+1.09
Equity ÷ liabilities 0.59 × 1.05+0.62
Where it misleads: buybacks. A company that returns so much cash that its equity turns small or negative sinks the last two ratios without being anywhere near bankruptcy. Banks and insurers do not fit the model at all.
Beneish M-score
Do the accounts resemble those of companies that manipulated their earnings?
-2.33below the -1.78 line
-1.78
Receivables vs sales 0.95+0.87
Gross margin slipping 0.92+0.48
Soft assets 0.81+0.33
Sales growth 1.52+1.35
Slower depreciation 0.88+0.10
Overheads vs sales 0.90-0.16
Profit not in cash -0.03-0.14
Leverage rising 0.99-0.32
Where it misleads: fast growth and acquisitions. Sales growth carries a heavy weight, so a company growing 50% a year scores like a suspect without having done anything. It is a screen from a 1999 study, not an accusation.
Where the statements disagree
Cross-checks between the income statement, the balance sheet and the cash flow for the latest year, each with the benign reading and the worrying one.
None of the six cross-checks fires for the latest year: receivables and inventory move with revenue, profit turns into cash, investment keeps up with depreciation, the tax rate is ordinary and debt is moderate.
What is it worth, under which assumptions?
A company is worth the cash it will generate, brought back to today. This model projects revenue with growth that fades over the years, applies a free cash flow margin, and discounts the result at the cost of capital. Every assumption says where it came from, and all of them can be changed.
Value per share, with these assumptions$66.99discounted at 10.2% a year · 55% of it from after year 10
Type a share price on the left to ask the reverse questions: what growth, what margin or what discount rate that price implies.
What the value implies, in the usual multiples
At this model's value
Price ÷ earnings
20.0×
Enterprise value ÷ EBITDA
12.6×
Enterprise value ÷ revenue
3.7×
Free cash flow yield
5.0%
From cash flows to a value per share
10 years of cash flow, today38.5B
Everything after, today47.1B
The whole business85.6B
Minus net debt-0
What belongs to shareholders85.6B
Divided among 1.3B shares: <strong>$66.99</strong> each.
The projection next to its history
Reported free cash flow after stock pay, then the model's. A projection that looks nothing like the past needs a reason.
ReportedProjected
02.5B5.0B7.5B10.0B
2016Reported 839.2M
2017Reported 867.9M
2018Reported 746.5M
2019Reported 1.1B
2020Reported 1.2B
2021Reported 1.1B
2022Reported 1.7B
2023Reported 2.1B
2024Reported 2.0B
2025Reported 4.2B
2026Projected 3.6B
2027Projected 4.4B
2028Projected 5.1B
2029Projected 5.9B
2030Projected 6.7B
2031Projected 7.5B
2032Projected 8.1B
2033Projected 8.7B
2034Projected 9.1B
2035Projected 9.3B
2016201820202022202420262028203020322034
Year by year
2026
2027
2028
2029
2030
2031
2032
2033
2034
2035
Revenue
28.2B
33.8B
39.7B
45.9B
52.0B
57.8B
63.0B
67.3B
70.5B
72.2B
Growth
22.0%
19.8%
17.7%
15.5%
13.3%
11.2%
9.0%
6.8%
4.7%
2.5%
Cash margin
12.9%
12.9%
12.9%
12.9%
12.9%
12.9%
12.9%
12.9%
12.9%
12.9%
Free cash flow
3.6B
4.4B
5.1B
5.9B
6.7B
7.5B
8.1B
8.7B
9.1B
9.3B
Worth today
3.3B
3.6B
3.8B
4.0B
4.1B
4.2B
4.1B
4.0B
3.8B
3.5B
If the least-known inputs move
Value per share as two inputs change at a time. Neighbouring cells that differ a lot are the conclusion: the value depends on numbers nobody knows to a point.
The discount rate and growth forever
discount ↓ · forever →
1.5%
2.0%
2.5%
3.0%
3.5%
9.2%
69
73
78
84
90
9.7%
65
68
72
77
82
10.2%
60
64
67
71
75
10.7%
57
59
62
66
70
11.2%
53
56
58
61
65
Year-one growth and the final margin
margin ↓ · growth →
18.0%
20.0%
22.0%
24.0%
26.0%
10.3%
48
52
56
61
65
11.6%
53
57
62
66
72
12.9%
57
62
67
72
78
14.2%
62
67
72
78
84
15.5%
67
72
78
84
91
All the inputs moving at once
5,000 valuations, each with growth, final margin, discount rate and growth forever drawn at random around the values on the left (spreads of 3.0%, 2.0%, 1.0% and 0.5%). Not a probability — the spreads are assumptions too — but an honest picture of how wide the answer is.
10th percentile$50.56
Median$67.07
90th percentile$90.94
$50.00$75.00$100.00
Half of the simulations land between <b>$57.61</b> and <b>$78.24</b>; one in ten below $50.56, one in ten above $90.94.
Does the long run make sense?
5.9×The terminal value prices the business in year 10 at 5.9 times that year's EBITDA.
7%To grow 2.5% forever while reinvesting 34% of its after-tax operating profit, the business must earn 7% on the new capital.
55%of the value comes from after year 10. The more of it, the more the answer depends on the part nobody can see.
What lenders charge, after the tax saving on interest: 6.68% × (1 − 23.1%) = <strong>5.13%</strong>.
Weighted by how much of each the company uses (book value (no price given)): <strong>10.18%</strong>, the rate every future cash flow is discounted at.
What it has filed lately
The last twelve months at the SEC, most important first: annual and quarterly reports, events, large holders and insiders.
Accounts from the company's own SEC filings; lines some companies do not report are shown as a dash rather than estimated. The risk-free rate is the 10-year US Treasury yield. A DCF is a way of making assumptions explicit, not a forecast: it states what the company would be worth if the assumptions held. The scores are screens that point where to look, not verdicts. Nothing here is a recommendation to buy or sell.