Alaska AIR Group, Inc.

ALK · Industrials (air transportation, scheduled) · 10 years of annual accounts filed with the SEC · latest fiscal year ended 2025-12-31

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Alaska AIR Group, Inc. reported revenue of $14.2 billion in fiscal 2025, after growing 10.2% a year over the previous 9 years. Its operating margin narrowed from 22.0% in 2016 to 2.1%, and it earned 2.2% on its invested capital in the latest year. Of the $11.9 billion its operations generated over 10 years, 59.3% went back into the business and 22.0% to acquisitions; the share count fell 3.6%. On the accounting screens, it passes 5 of 8 Piotroski tests, its Altman Z'' of 0.10 is in the distress zone and its Beneish M-score is below the -1.78 line; 1 of the six cross-checks between its statements fires.

Revenue, fiscal 2025 14.2B +10.2% a year over 9 years

Operating margin 2.1% gross margin —

Return on invested capital 2.2% 4.0% on average over 5 years

Free cash flow —

Net debt ÷ EBITDA 4.3× net debt 4.7B

Piotroski F-score 5/8 tests of improvement passed

Is it growing?

Revenue and the operating income it turns into. Growth that does not reach operating income is growth bought with margin.

RevenueOperating income

Compound growth a year
	3 yrs	5 yrs	9 yrs
Revenue	+13.9%	+31.9%	+10.2%
Operating income	+63.0%	—	-15.0%
Net income	+19.9%	—	-20.6%
Earnings per share	+22.5%	—	-20.3%
Shares	-2.1%	-0.6%	-0.4%

Falling shares are buybacks: each remaining share owns more of the company.

Does it earn more than its capital costs?

Margins say how much of each sale is kept; return on invested capital says how much the business earns on the money it needs to operate. Growth only creates value when that return is above the cost of the capital.

    GrossOperatingNetFree cash flow
    
  

Return on invested capital

Economic profit

Needs a cost of capital, which comes from the valuation below.

Return on equity: 2.4%
Return on assets: 0.5%
Asset turnover: 0.70×

Is the profit cash, and where does the cash go?

Net income is an accounting opinion; free cash flow is what was left in the bank after investing. Stock-based pay does not leave the bank — shareholders pay it through dilution — so it is shown taken off as well.

Net incomeFree cash flowAfter stock-based pay

Where 10 years of operating cash went, 2016–2025

11.9B generated by the business. Each band is its share of that total.

Reinvested in the business 59% 7.0B
Acquisitions 22% 2.6B
Dividends 6% 660.0M
Share buybacks 12% 1.4B
Kept, or used to pay down debt 1% 118.0M

Over the same years it paid 432.0M in stock. The share count fell 3.6%. 1.0B of the buybacks went beyond offsetting that dilution.

Per share

    Earnings per shareFree cash flow per shareDividend per share
    
  

Shares outstanding

Diluted shares

How strong is the balance sheet?

Debt is not bad in itself; debt the business cannot service in a bad year is. Net debt is debt minus cash, and below zero the company holds more cash than it owes.

Net debt

Net debt ÷ EBITDA: 4.3×
Interest coverage: 1× operating income ÷ interest
Current ratio: 0.50 current assets ÷ current liabilities
Cash conversion cycle: — collects in 14d

Three classic screens of the accounts

Each asks a different question of the same statements — is it improving, does it look like a company heading for distress, do the accounts resemble ones that were manipulated. None is a verdict; each shows what moves it.

Piotroski F-score

Is the business improving? Nine yes-or-no tests, this year against last.

5of 8 tests passed

ProfitableReturn on assets above zero passed
Cash from operationsOperating cash flow above zero passed
Profitability improvedReturn on assets higher than a year before failed
Profit backed by cashOperating cash flow above net income (low accruals) passed
Less long-term debtLong-term debt as a share of assets fell failed
More liquidCurrent ratio higher than a year before failed
No new sharesShare count did not grow passed
Better gross marginGross margin higher than a year before — not reported no data
Sells more per assetAsset turnover higher than a year before passed

Where it misleads: it measures change, not level. An excellent business that stood still for a year scores low; a poor one recovering from a disaster scores high.

Altman Z''-score

Does the balance sheet look like those of companies that went bankrupt?

0.10distress zone

Working capital ÷ assets -0.16 × 6.56-1.07
Retained earnings ÷ assets 0.25 × 3.26+0.81
Operating income ÷ assets 0.01 × 6.72+0.10
Equity ÷ liabilities 0.25 × 1.05+0.27

Where it misleads: buybacks. A company that returns so much cash that its equity turns small or negative sinks the last two ratios without being anywhere near bankruptcy. Banks and insurers do not fit the model at all.

Beneish M-score

Do the accounts resemble those of companies that manipulated their earnings?

-2.75below the -1.78 line

Receivables vs sales 0.83+0.77
Gross margin slipping 1.00 (not reported, set to 1)+0.53
Soft assets 0.97+0.39
Sales growth 1.21+1.08
Slower depreciation 0.82+0.09
Overheads vs sales 1.00 (not reported, set to 1)-0.17
Profit not in cash -0.06-0.26
Leverage rising 1.04-0.34

Where it misleads: fast growth and acquisitions. Sales growth carries a heavy weight, so a company growing 50% a year scores like a suspect without having done anything. It is a screen from a 1999 study, not an accusation.

Where the statements disagree

Cross-checks between the income statement, the balance sheet and the cash flow for the latest year, each with the benign reading and the worrying one.

Net debt is 4.3 times EBITDA.

Benign

A stable sector with predictable cash flows and comfortable maturities.

Worrying

Little room if earnings fall; the maturity schedule is what to check.

What is it worth, under which assumptions?

A company is worth the cash it will generate, brought back to today. This model projects revenue with growth that fades over the years, applies a free cash flow margin, and discounts the result at the cost of capital. Every assumption says where it came from, and all of them can be changed.

Revenue

Starting revenue

M $

revenue of fiscal 2025

Growth in year one

revenue grew +31.9% a year over the last 5 years; it fades to the terminal rate by the last year

Years until it settles

yrs

ten years for growth to fade to the terminal rate

Cash from each sale

Free cash flow margin today

free cash flow to the firm after stock-based pay ÷ revenue, last 1 fiscal years together

Margin in the last year

the margin in year ten; by default the business keeps today's

Count stock-based pay as a costIt is paid in shares instead of cash, and shareholders bear it through dilution. Most free cash flow figures leave it out.

The long run

Growth after that, forever

growth forever after year ten, below the risk-free rate: no company outgrows the economy forever

The discount rate

Risk-free rate

10-year US Treasury par yield (U.S. Treasury), 2026-09-25

Beta

not measured on this public page, which uses only public filings: 1.0 assumes it moves like the market. Sign in to measure it from prices

Equity risk premium

the extra return demanded for holding shares; it cannot be measured, and 4–6% is the common range

Cost of debt, before tax

interest expense ÷ debt = 5.1%, kept between the risk-free rate and +8 points

Tax rate

effective rate in the last fiscal year, 31.5%, kept within 0–35%

The price

Share price

Type the price you see at your broker. It is used only for the reverse questions: what that price implies.

Back to the defaults

SEC from the filings Treasury the 10-year yield measured from prices assumption cannot be measured yours you changed it

With a free cash flow margin at or below zero in year ten, the business never generates cash for its owners and a DCF says nothing useful. Set a positive margin for year ten to see what it would take.

What it has filed lately

The last twelve months at the SEC, most important first: annual and quarterly reports, events, large holders and insiders.

Quarterly 2026-08-04

Quarterly report

Results 2026-07-21

Reported results; published information for investors

Event 2026-06-17

Changed a director or officer; published information for investors

Event 2026-06-03

Changed a director or officer; published information for investors

Event 2026-05-14

Published the results of a shareholder vote

Event 2026-05-12

Signed a material agreement; took on a financial obligation

Quarterly 2026-05-07

Quarterly report

Event 2026-05-07

Published other information

Estimatein 38d

Results for the period ending 2026-09-29

What its own directors and officers did

Every Form 4 filed in the last twelve months, read line by line: 6 filings by 4 people. Open-market purchases and sales are counted apart from awards, option exercises and shares withheld for taxes.

Bought on the open market$1.0M1 purchase(s) by 1 insider(s)

Sold on the open market$263,2561 sale(s) by 1 insider(s)

Under pre-arranged plans0%of the sales followed a 10b5-1 plan set months earlier

Other lines100 awards · 5 option exercises · 5 tax withholdings

Date	Who	What	Shares	Price	Value	Holds after
23 Sep 2026	Berry Jason MEVP & Chief Operating Officer	Exercised options	2,010	—	—	15,532
23 Sep 2026	Berry Jason MEVP & Chief Operating Officer	Shares withheld for taxes	792	$39.70	$31,442	15,103
22 Sep 2026	Harrison Andrew REVP AND CCO	Exercised options	869	—	—	26,397
22 Sep 2026	Harrison Andrew REVP AND CCO	Shares withheld for taxes	869	$41.91	$36,420	25,528
22 Sep 2026	Schneider Andrea LPres & CEO Horizon Airlines	Exercised options	48	—	—	45,237
22 Sep 2026	Schneider Andrea LPres & CEO Horizon Airlines	Shares withheld for taxes	48	$41.91	$2,012	45,189
22 Sep 2026	Schneider Andrea LPres & CEO Horizon Airlines	Exercised options	499	—	—	45,688
22 Sep 2026	Schneider Andrea LPres & CEO Horizon Airlines	Shares withheld for taxes	499	$41.91	$20,913	45,189
22 Sep 2026	Minicucci BenitoCEO AND PRESIDENT	Exercised options	2,698	—	—	259,280
22 Sep 2026	Minicucci BenitoCEO AND PRESIDENT	Shares withheld for taxes	2,698	$49.91	$134,657	256,582
20 Aug 2026	Minicucci BenitoCEO AND PRESIDENT	Bought on the open market	25,000	$40.06	$1.0M	256,582
3 Aug 2026	Harrison Andrew REVP AND CCO	Sold on the open market	5,300	$49.67	$263,256	25,528

A Form 4 says what happened, when, how many shares and at what price. It does not say why: a sale can be diversification, a tax bill or a plan fixed months earlier, and an award is pay, not a purchase. Nothing here is a reason to buy or sell anything.

Which large funds report holding it

From the Form 13F of the 28 institutions followed on this site, as of the end of their last reported quarter. A 13F is filed up to 45 days later and shows only long positions in US-listed shares.

Fund	Shares	Value	Share of the fund	Since the quarter before
Tudor Investment 30 Jun 2026	93,108	$4.9M	0.0%	Added to
Norges Bank (Norway's sovereign fund) 30 Jun 2026	63,848	$3.3M	0.0%	New

All the funds and what they reported ›

Companies like this one

Same SEC industry (air transportation, scheduled) first, then the rest of industrials.

DAL Delta AIR Lines, Inc.UAL United Airlines Holdings, Inc.LUV Southwest Airlines Co AAL American Airlines Group Inc.SKYW Skywest Inc JBLU Jetblue Airways Corp CAT Caterpillar Inc GE General Electric Co

Every figure, year by year

10 fiscal years · 30 measures

	2016	2017	2018	2019	2020	2021	2022	2023	2024	2025
Size
Revenue	5.9B	7.9B	8.3B	8.8B	3.6B	6.2B	9.6B	10.4B	11.7B	14.2B
Revenue growth	—	+33.2%	+4.7%	+6.3%	-59.4%	+73.2%	+56.2%	+8.1%	+12.6%	+21.3%
Operating income	1.3B	1.2B	643.0M	1.1B	-1.8B	685.0M	70.0M	394.0M	570.0M	303.0M
Net income	797.0M	960.0M	437.0M	769.0M	-1.3B	478.0M	58.0M	235.0M	395.0M	100.0M
Margins
Gross margin	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
Operating margin	22.0%	15.3%	7.8%	12.1%	-49.8%	11.1%	0.7%	3.8%	4.9%	2.1%
Net margin	13.5%	12.2%	5.3%	8.8%	-37.1%	7.7%	0.6%	2.3%	3.4%	0.7%
Free cash flow margin	11.9%	7.1%	2.8%	11.7%	-12.8%	11.9%	-2.6%	-4.3%	—	—
R&D ÷ revenue	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
SG&A ÷ revenue	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
Cash
Free cash flow	708.0M	564.0M	235.0M	1.0B	-456.0M	738.0M	-253.0M	-444.0M	—	—
Stock-based pay	26.0M	55.0M	47.0M	29.0M	24.0M	51.0M	42.0M	85.0M	63.0M	10.0M
Free cash flow after stock pay	682.0M	509.0M	188.0M	997.0M	-480.0M	687.0M	-295.0M	-529.0M	—	—
Free cash flow to the firm	475.9M	325.6M	-97.7M	576.6M	-2.3B	643.6M	-975.6M	-869.3M	—	—
Free cash flow ÷ net income	0.9×	0.6×	0.5×	1.3×	0.3×	1.5×	-4.4×	-1.9×	—	—
Capex ÷ revenue	11.4%	13.0%	11.6%	7.9%	6.2%	4.7%	17.3%	14.3%	—	—
Returns
Return on invested capital	13.9%	16.6%	8.2%	13.8%	-35.1%	8.2%	0.9%	4.4%	4.4%	2.2%
Return on equity	29.0%	27.7%	11.7%	17.8%	-44.3%	12.6%	1.5%	5.7%	9.0%	2.4%
Return on assets	8.0%	8.9%	4.0%	5.9%	-9.4%	3.4%	0.4%	1.6%	2.0%	0.5%
Asset turnover	0.6×	0.7×	0.8×	0.7×	0.3×	0.4×	0.7×	0.7×	0.6×	0.7×
Economic profit	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
Per share
Earnings per share	$6.41	$7.75	$3.52	$6.19	$-10.72	$3.77	$0.45	$1.83	$3.08	$0.83
Free cash flow per share	$5.69	$4.55	$1.90	$8.25	$-3.69	$5.82	$-1.98	$-3.45	—	—
Dividend per share	$1.09	$1.19	$1.27	$1.39	$0.36	$0.00	$0.00	—	—	—
Payout ratio	17.1%	15.4%	36.2%	22.5%	—	0.0%	0.0%	—	—	—
Book value per share	$22.25	$28.12	$30.45	$35.21	$24.05	$30.19	$29.92	$32.62	$35.51	$35.64
Diluted shares	124.4M	123.9M	124.0M	124.3M	123.5M	126.8M	127.9M	128.7M	128.4M	119.9M
Balance sheet
Net debt	2.6B	2.4B	2.0B	1.3B	2.1B	2.1B	1.8B	2.2B	3.7B	4.7B
Net debt ÷ EBITDA	1.6×	1.5×	1.9×	0.9×	-1.6×	1.9×	3.8×	2.6×	3.2×	4.3×
Interest coverage	23.7×	11.7×	7.1×	13.6×	-18.1×	5.4×	0.6×	3.3×	3.3×	1.1×
Current ratio	0.8×	0.8×	0.6×	0.6×	0.9×	1.0×	0.7×	0.6×	0.6×	0.5×
Cash conversion cycle (days)	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
Scores
Piotroski F-score	—	7	5	6	3	7	5	5	6	5
Altman Z''	2.13	2.20	1.61	1.77	0.17	1.68	0.74	0.82	0.51	0.10
Beneish M	—	-2.57	-2.71	-2.69	-1.11	-2.29	-3.03	-2.53	-2.37	-2.75

Accounts from the company's own SEC filings; lines some companies do not report are shown as a dash rather than estimated. The risk-free rate is the 10-year US Treasury yield. A DCF is a way of making assumptions explicit, not a forecast: it states what the company would be worth if the assumptions held. The scores are screens that point where to look, not verdicts. Nothing here is a recommendation to buy or sell.