WLK · Materials(industrial organic chemicals) · 10 years of annual accounts filed with the SEC · latest fiscal year ended 2025-12-31
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Westlake Corp reported revenue of $11.2 billion in fiscal 2025, after growing 9.2% a year over the previous 9 years. Its operating margin narrowed from 11.5% in 2016 to -14.1%, and it earned -11.8% on its invested capital in the latest year. Of the $16.3 billion its operations generated over 10 years, 49.2% went back into the business and 40.0% to acquisitions. On the accounting screens, it passes 3 of 9 Piotroski tests, its Altman Z'' of 2.89 is in the safe zone and its Beneish M-score is below the -1.78 line; 1 of the six cross-checks between its statements fires.
Revenue, fiscal 202511.2B+9.2% a year over 9 years
Operating margin-14.1%gross margin 7.3%
Return on invested capital-11.8%5.7% on average over 5 years
Free cash flow after stock pay-571.0M-5.1% of revenue
Net debt ÷ EBITDA-7.2×net debt 2.9B
Piotroski F-score3/9tests of improvement passed
Is it growing?
Revenue and the operating income it turns into. Growth that does not reach operating income is growth bought with margin.
RevenueOperating income
-5B05B10B15B20B
2016Revenue 5.1BOperating income 583.0M
2017Revenue 8.0BOperating income 1.2B
2018Revenue 8.6BOperating income 1.4B
2019Revenue 8.1BOperating income 656.0M
2020Revenue 7.5BOperating income 429.0M
2021Revenue 11.8BOperating income 2.8B
2022Revenue 15.8BOperating income 3.0B
2023Revenue 12.5BOperating income 729.0M
2024Revenue 12.1BOperating income 875.0M
2025Revenue 11.2BOperating income -1.6B
2016201720182019202020212022202320242025
Compound growth a year
3 yrs
5 yrs
9 yrs
Revenue
-10.9%
+8.3%
+9.2%
Dividend per share
+17.4%
+14.7%
+12.3%
Shares
-0.2%
+0.0%
-0.1%
Falling shares are buybacks: each remaining share owns more of the company.
Does it earn more than its capital costs?
Margins say how much of each sale is kept; return on invested capital says how much the business earns on the money it needs to operate. Growth only creates value when that return is above the cost of the capital.
Return on invested capitalCost of capital today · 8.3%
-20%-10%0%10%20%
2016Return on invested capital 6.1%
2017Return on invested capital 10.7%
2018Return on invested capital 13.2%
2019Return on invested capital 5.7%
2020Return on invested capital 3.9%
2021Return on invested capital 16.5%
2022Return on invested capital 16.1%
2023Return on invested capital 3.6%
2024Return on invested capital 4.0%
2025Return on invested capital -11.8%
2016201720182019202020212022202320242025
Economic profit
Economic profit
-4B-2B02B
2016Economic profit -158.9M
2017Economic profit 209.8M
2018Economic profit 406.1M
2019Economic profit -240.4M
2020Economic profit -422.8M
2021Economic profit 1.1B
2022Economic profit 1.1B
2023Economic profit -713.3M
2024Economic profit -648.5M
2025Economic profit -2.9B
2016201720182019202020212022202320242025
(return on capital − cost of capital) × capital invested: the profit left after paying for the money used. Today's cost of capital is applied to every year, since a past one cannot be rebuilt honestly.
Return on equity
-17.2%
Return on assets
-7.6%
Asset turnover
0.56×
Overheads (SG&A)
8.1% of revenue
Is the profit cash, and where does the cash go?
Net income is an accounting opinion; free cash flow is what was left in the bank after investing. Stock-based pay does not leave the bank — shareholders pay it through dilution — so it is shown taken off as well.
Net incomeFree cash flowAfter stock-based pay
-2B-1B01B2B3B
2016Net income 399.0MFree cash flow 238.0MAfter stock-based pay 224.0M
2017Net income 1.3BFree cash flow 951.0MAfter stock-based pay 928.0M
2018Net income 996.0MFree cash flow 707.0MAfter stock-based pay 685.0M
2019Net income 421.0MFree cash flow 514.0MAfter stock-based pay 489.0M
2020Net income 330.0MFree cash flow 772.0MAfter stock-based pay 743.0M
2021Net income 2.0BFree cash flow 1.7BAfter stock-based pay 1.7B
2022Net income 2.2BFree cash flow 2.3BAfter stock-based pay 2.3B
2023Net income 479.0MFree cash flow 1.3BAfter stock-based pay 1.3B
2024Net income 602.0MFree cash flow 306.0MAfter stock-based pay 265.0M
2025Net income -1.5BFree cash flow -530.0MAfter stock-based pay -571.0M
2016201720182019202020212022202320242025
Where 10 years of operating cash went, 2016–2025
16.3B generated by the business. Each band is its share of that total.
Reinvested in the business 49%8.0B
Acquisitions 40%6.5B
Dividends 10%1.7B
Share buybacks 3%534.0M
More than it generated: funded with cash or new debt -3%-433.0M
Over the same years it paid 305.0M in stock. The share count fell 1.3%. 229.0M of the buybacks went beyond offsetting that dilution.
Per share
Earnings per shareFree cash flow per shareDividend per share
-$20-$10$0$10$20
2016Earnings per share $3.07Free cash flow per share $1.83Dividend per share $0.75
2017Earnings per share $10.07Free cash flow per share $7.34Dividend per share $0.80
2018Earnings per share $7.66Free cash flow per share $5.44Dividend per share $0.92
2019Earnings per share $3.27Free cash flow per share $3.99Dividend per share $1.03
2020Earnings per share $2.58Free cash flow per share $6.03Dividend per share $1.07
2021Earnings per share $15.66Free cash flow per share $13.49Dividend per share $1.13
2022Earnings per share $17.44Free cash flow per share $17.75Dividend per share $1.31
2023Earnings per share $3.72Free cash flow per share $10.12Dividend per share $1.72
2024Earnings per share $4.66Free cash flow per share $2.37Dividend per share $2.04
2025Earnings per share $-11.76Free cash flow per share $-4.13Dividend per share $2.12
2016201720182019202020212022202320242025
Shares outstanding
Diluted shares
128.0M128.5M129.0M129.5M130.0M
2016Diluted shares 130.0M
2017Diluted shares 129.5M
2018Diluted shares 130.0M
2019Diluted shares 128.8M
2020Diluted shares 128.1M
2021Diluted shares 128.7M
2022Diluted shares 128.8M
2023Diluted shares 128.6M
2024Diluted shares 129.2M
2025Diluted shares 128.3M
2016201720182019202020212022202320242025
Debt and liquidity
Debt is not bad in itself; debt the business cannot service in a bad year is. Net debt is debt minus cash, and below zero the company holds more cash than it owes.
Net debt
01B2B3B4B
2016Net debt 3.2B
2017Net debt 2.3B
2018Net debt 1.9B
2019Net debt 2.7B
2020Net debt 2.3B
2021Net debt 3.3B
2022Net debt 2.7B
2023Net debt 1.6B
2024Net debt 1.6B
2025Net debt 2.9B
2016201720182019202020212022202320242025
Net debt ÷ EBITDA
-7.2×
Interest coverage
-9× operating income ÷ interest
Current ratio
2.24 current assets ÷ current liabilities
Cash conversion cycle
71 days collects in 40d, stock 58d, pays in 28d
Three classic screens of the accounts
Each asks a different question of the same statements — is it improving, does it look like a company heading for distress, do the accounts resemble ones that were manipulated. None is a verdict; each shows what moves it.
Piotroski F-score
Is the business improving? Nine yes-or-no tests, this year against last.
3of 9 tests passed
✕ProfitableReturn on assets above zerofailed
✓Cash from operationsOperating cash flow above zeropassed
✕Profitability improvedReturn on assets higher than a year beforefailed
✓Profit backed by cashOperating cash flow above net income (low accruals)passed
✕Less long-term debtLong-term debt as a share of assets fellfailed
✕More liquidCurrent ratio higher than a year beforefailed
✓No new sharesShare count did not growpassed
✕Better gross marginGross margin higher than a year beforefailed
✕Sells more per assetAsset turnover higher than a year beforefailed
Where it misleads: it measures change, not level. An excellent business that stood still for a year scores low; a poor one recovering from a disaster scores high.
Altman Z''-score
Does the balance sheet look like those of companies that went bankrupt?
2.89safe zone
1.12.6
Working capital ÷ assets 0.17 × 6.56+1.13
Retained earnings ÷ assets 0.44 × 3.26+1.42
Operating income ÷ assets -0.08 × 6.72-0.53
Equity ÷ liabilities 0.82 × 1.05+0.87
Where it misleads: buybacks. A company that returns so much cash that its equity turns small or negative sinks the last two ratios without being anywhere near bankruptcy. Banks and insurers do not fit the model at all.
Beneish M-score
Do the accounts resemble those of companies that manipulated their earnings?
-2.49below the -1.78 line
-1.78
Receivables vs sales 1.02+0.93
Gross margin slipping 2.21+1.17
Soft assets 0.91+0.37
Sales growth 0.92+0.82
Slower depreciation 0.95+0.11
Overheads vs sales 1.12-0.19
Profit not in cash -0.10-0.46
Leverage rising 1.21-0.39
Where it misleads: fast growth and acquisitions. Sales growth carries a heavy weight, so a company growing 50% a year scores like a suspect without having done anything. It is a screen from a 1999 study, not an accusation.
Where the statements disagree
Cross-checks between the income statement, the balance sheet and the cash flow for the latest year, each with the benign reading and the worrying one.
The effective tax rate is -7.9%.
Benign
A favourable geographic mix, or legitimate tax credits.
Worrying
Not sustainable; projecting it forward inflates the valuation.
What is it worth, under which assumptions?
A company is worth the cash it will generate, brought back to today. This model projects revenue with growth that fades over the years, applies a free cash flow margin, and discounts the result at the cost of capital. Every assumption says where it came from, and all of them can be changed.
Value per share, with these assumptions$-11.22discounted at 8.3% a year · 60% of it from after year 10
Type a share price on the left to ask the reverse questions: what growth, what margin or what discount rate that price implies.
What the value implies, in the usual multiples
At this model's value
Price ÷ earnings
—
Enterprise value ÷ EBITDA
—
Enterprise value ÷ revenue
0.1×
Free cash flow yield
—
From cash flows to a value per share
10 years of cash flow, today571.9M
Everything after, today849.2M
The whole business1.4B
Minus net debt-2.9B
What belongs to shareholders-1.4B
Divided among 128.3M shares: <strong>$-11.22</strong> each.
The projection next to its history
Reported free cash flow after stock pay, then the model's. A projection that looks nothing like the past needs a reason.
ReportedProjected
-1B01B2B3B
2016Reported 224.0M
2017Reported 928.0M
2018Reported 685.0M
2019Reported 489.0M
2020Reported 743.0M
2021Reported 1.7B
2022Reported 2.3B
2023Reported 1.3B
2024Reported 265.0M
2025Reported -571.0M
2026Projected 67.8M
2027Projected 73.1M
2028Projected 78.4M
2029Projected 83.5M
2030Projected 88.3M
2031Projected 92.9M
2032Projected 97.1M
2033Projected 100.8M
2034Projected 104.0M
2035Projected 106.6M
2016201820202022202420262028203020322034
Year by year
2026
2027
2028
2029
2030
2031
2032
2033
2034
2035
Revenue
12.1B
13.1B
14.0B
14.9B
15.8B
16.6B
17.3B
18.0B
18.6B
19.0B
Growth
8.5%
7.8%
7.2%
6.5%
5.8%
5.2%
4.5%
3.8%
3.2%
2.5%
Cash margin
0.6%
0.6%
0.6%
0.6%
0.6%
0.6%
0.6%
0.6%
0.6%
0.6%
Free cash flow
67.8M
73.1M
78.4M
83.5M
88.3M
92.9M
97.1M
100.8M
104.0M
106.6M
Worth today
62.6M
62.4M
61.7M
60.7M
59.3M
57.6M
55.6M
53.3M
50.7M
48.0M
If the least-known inputs move
Value per share as two inputs change at a time. Neighbouring cells that differ a lot are the conclusion: the value depends on numbers nobody knows to a point.
The discount rate and growth forever
discount ↓ · forever →
1.5%
2.0%
2.5%
3.0%
3.5%
7.3%
-11
-10
-9
-7
-6
7.8%
-12
-11
-10
-9
-8
8.3%
-13
-12
-11
-10
-9
8.8%
-13
-13
-12
-11
-11
9.3%
-14
-13
-13
-12
-12
Year-one growth and the final margin
margin ↓ · growth →
4.5%
6.5%
8.5%
10.5%
12.5%
0.4%
-14
-14
-13
-12
-11
0.5%
-14
-13
-12
-11
-10
0.6%
-13
-12
-11
-10
-9
0.6%
-12
-11
-10
-9
-8
0.7%
-11
-10
-9
-8
-7
All the inputs moving at once
5,000 valuations, each with growth, final margin, discount rate and growth forever drawn at random around the values on the left (spreads of 3.0%, 2.0%, 1.0% and 0.5%). Not a probability — the spreads are assumptions too — but an honest picture of how wide the answer is.
10th percentile$-52.88
Median$-10.93
90th percentile$32.42
$-50.00$0.00$50.00
Half of the simulations land between <b>$-31.99</b> and <b>$11.40</b>; one in ten below $-52.88, one in ten above $32.42.
Does the long run make sense?
60%of the value comes from after year 10. The more of it, the more the answer depends on the part nobody can see.
From the Form 13F of the 28 institutions followed on this site, as of the end of their last reported quarter. A 13F is filed up to 45 days later and shows only long positions in US-listed shares.
Accounts from the company's own SEC filings; lines some companies do not report are shown as a dash rather than estimated. The risk-free rate is the 10-year US Treasury yield. A DCF is a way of making assumptions explicit, not a forecast: it states what the company would be worth if the assumptions held. The scores are screens that point where to look, not verdicts. Nothing here is a recommendation to buy or sell.