VRRM · Industrials(transportation services) · 10 years of annual accounts filed with the SEC · latest fiscal year ended 2025-12-31
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Verra Mobility Corp reported revenue of $979.1 million in fiscal 2025. Of the $1.3 billion its operations generated over 10 years, 76.4% went to acquisitions and 53.4% to buybacks; the share count rose 166.7%. On the accounting screens, it passes 8 of 8 Piotroski tests, its Altman Z'' of 1.64 is in the grey zone and its Beneish M-score is below the -1.78 line; 1 of the six cross-checks between its statements fires.
Revenue, fiscal 2025979.1M
Operating margin24.4%gross margin —
Return on invested capital12.6%8.4% on average over 4 years
Free cash flow after stock pay111.5M11.4% of revenue
Net debt ÷ EBITDA2.7×net debt 962.8M
Piotroski F-score8/8tests of improvement passed
Share counts are in today's shares. The SEC's filings restate only recent years after a split, so these jumps were read as splits and the older years scaled to match — otherwise per-share figures would compare different units:
2-for-1 before fiscal 2019.
Is it growing?
Revenue and the operating income it turns into. Growth that does not reach operating income is growth bought with margin.
RevenueOperating income
-0.25B00.25B0.50B0.75B1.00B
2017Operating income -780,280
2018Revenue 370.1MOperating income 12.6M
2019Revenue 448.7MOperating income 96.5M
2020Revenue 393.6MOperating income 37.8M
2021Revenue 550.6MOperating income 111.9M
2022
2022Revenue 741.6MOperating income 164.7M
2023Revenue 817.3MOperating income 188.8M
2024Revenue 879.2MOperating income 136.0M
2025Revenue 979.1MOperating income 238.4M
2017201820192020202120222022202320242025
Compound growth a year
3 yrs
5 yrs
9 yrs
Revenue
+9.7%
+12.2%
—
Operating income
+13.1%
+16.3%
—
Net income
+13.9%
+26.9%
+66.0%
Earnings per share
+13.4%
+27.3%
+48.9%
Free cash flow per share
-7.5%
-3.8%
—
Shares
+0.5%
-0.3%
+11.5%
Falling shares are buybacks: each remaining share owns more of the company.
Does it earn more than its capital costs?
Margins say how much of each sale is kept; return on invested capital says how much the business earns on the money it needs to operate. Growth only creates value when that return is above the cost of the capital.
GrossOperatingNetFree cash flow
-20%0%20%40%
2017
2018Operating 3.4%Net -15.8%Free cash flow 5.3%
2019Operating 21.5%Net 3.8%Free cash flow 23.2%
2020Operating 9.6%Net -1.2%Free cash flow 5.8%
2021Operating 20.3%Net 7.5%Free cash flow 30.5%
2022
2022Operating 22.2%Net 12.5%Free cash flow 22.9%
2023Operating 23.1%Net 7.0%Free cash flow 18.2%
2024Operating 15.5%Net 3.6%Free cash flow 17.4%
2025Operating 24.4%Net 14.0%Free cash flow 14.0%
2017201820192020202120222022202320242025
Return on invested capital
Return on invested capitalCost of capital today · 5.7%
-20%-10%0%10%20%
2017Return on invested capital -0.1%
2018Return on invested capital 1.3%
2019Return on invested capital 4.6%
2020Return on invested capital -17.5%
2021Return on invested capital 4.5%
2022
2022Return on invested capital 8.3%
2023Return on invested capital 8.5%
2024Return on invested capital 4.2%
2025Return on invested capital 12.6%
2017201820192020202120222022202320242025
Economic profit
Economic profit
-300M-200M-100M0100M
2017Economic profit -33.3M
2018Economic profit -50.7M
2019Economic profit -13.3M
2020Economic profit -269.0M
2021Economic profit -17.5M
2022
2022Economic profit 37.5M
2023Economic profit 40.5M
2024Economic profit -20.0M
2025Economic profit 91.7M
2017201820192020202120222022202320242025
(return on capital − cost of capital) × capital invested: the profit left after paying for the money used. Today's cost of capital is applied to every year, since a past one cannot be rebuilt honestly.
Return on equity
46.6%
Return on assets
8.3%
Asset turnover
0.59×
Overheads (SG&A)
22.0% of revenue
Is the profit cash, and where does the cash go?
Net income is an accounting opinion; free cash flow is what was left in the bank after investing. Stock-based pay does not leave the bank — shareholders pay it through dilution — so it is shown taken off as well.
Net incomeFree cash flowAfter stock-based pay
-100M0100M200M
2017Net income 1.4M
2018Net income -58.4MFree cash flow 19.4MAfter stock-based pay 17.2M
2019Net income 17.1MFree cash flow 104.1MAfter stock-based pay 94.1M
2020Net income -4.6MFree cash flow 22.6MAfter stock-based pay 10.1M
2021Net income 41.4MFree cash flow 168.2MAfter stock-based pay 154.4M
2022
2022Net income 92.5MFree cash flow 170.2MAfter stock-based pay 153.5M
2023Net income 57.0MFree cash flow 149.1MAfter stock-based pay 131.6M
2024Net income 31.4MFree cash flow 152.8MAfter stock-based pay 129.8M
2025Net income 136.6MFree cash flow 136.7MAfter stock-based pay 111.5M
2017201820192020202120222022202320242025
Where 10 years of operating cash went, 2017–2025
1.3B generated by the business. Each band is its share of that total.
Reinvested in the business 30%400.6M
Acquisitions 76%1.0B
Dividends 0%0
Share buybacks 53%708.5M
More than it generated: funded with cash or new debt -60%-796.4M
Over the same years it paid 120.9M in stock. The share count rose 166.7%. 587.6M of the buybacks went beyond offsetting that dilution.
Per share
Earnings per shareFree cash flow per shareDividend per share
-$0.50$0.00$0.50$1.00$1.50
2017Earnings per share $0.02
2018Earnings per share $-0.33Free cash flow per share $0.11
2019Earnings per share $0.11Free cash flow per share $0.65
2020Earnings per share $-0.03Free cash flow per share $0.14
2021Earnings per share $0.25Free cash flow per share $1.03
2022
2022Earnings per share $0.58Free cash flow per share $1.07
2023Earnings per share $0.36Free cash flow per share $0.93
2024Earnings per share $0.19Free cash flow per share $0.91
2025Earnings per share $0.85Free cash flow per share $0.85
2017201820192020202120222022202320242025
Shares outstanding
Diluted shares
50M100M150M200M
2017Diluted shares 60.5M
2018Diluted shares 174.6M
2019Diluted shares 160.1M
2020Diluted shares 161.6M
2021Diluted shares 163.8M
2022
2022Diluted shares 159.0M
2023Diluted shares 160.0M
2024Diluted shares 167.7M
2025Diluted shares 161.3M
2017201820192020202120222022202320242025
Debt and liquidity
Debt is not bad in itself; debt the business cannot service in a bad year is. Net debt is debt minus cash, and below zero the company holds more cash than it owes.
Net debt
00.5B1.0B1.5B
2017Net debt 420.0M
2018Net debt 804.3M
2019Net debt 735.0M
2020Net debt 721.8M
2021Net debt 1.1B
2022
2022Net debt 1.1B
2023Net debt 901.8M
2024Net debt 956.7M
2025Net debt 962.8M
2017201820192020202120222022202320242025
Net debt ÷ EBITDA
2.7×
Interest coverage
4× operating income ÷ interest
Current ratio
2.09 current assets ÷ current liabilities
Cash conversion cycle
— collects in 87d
Three classic screens of the accounts
Each asks a different question of the same statements — is it improving, does it look like a company heading for distress, do the accounts resemble ones that were manipulated. None is a verdict; each shows what moves it.
Piotroski F-score
Is the business improving? Nine yes-or-no tests, this year against last.
8of 8 tests passed
✓ProfitableReturn on assets above zeropassed
✓Cash from operationsOperating cash flow above zeropassed
✓Profitability improvedReturn on assets higher than a year beforepassed
✓Profit backed by cashOperating cash flow above net income (low accruals)passed
✓Less long-term debtLong-term debt as a share of assets fellpassed
✓More liquidCurrent ratio higher than a year beforepassed
✓No new sharesShare count did not growpassed
–Better gross marginGross margin higher than a year before — not reportedno data
✓Sells more per assetAsset turnover higher than a year beforepassed
Where it misleads: it measures change, not level. An excellent business that stood still for a year scores low; a poor one recovering from a disaster scores high.
Altman Z''-score
Does the balance sheet look like those of companies that went bankrupt?
1.64grey zone
1.12.6
Working capital ÷ assets 0.14 × 6.56+0.92
Retained earnings ÷ assets -0.15 × 3.26-0.48
Operating income ÷ assets 0.14 × 6.72+0.97
Equity ÷ liabilities 0.22 × 1.05+0.23
Where it misleads: buybacks. A company that returns so much cash that its equity turns small or negative sinks the last two ratios without being anywhere near bankruptcy. Banks and insurers do not fit the model at all.
Beneish M-score
Do the accounts resemble those of companies that manipulated their earnings?
-2.70below the -1.78 line
-1.78
Receivables vs sales 1.02+0.94
Gross margin slipping 1.00 (not reported, set to 1)+0.53
Soft assets 0.91+0.37
Sales growth 1.11+0.99
Slower depreciation 1.23+0.14
Overheads vs sales 0.99-0.17
Profit not in cash -0.07-0.34
Leverage rising 0.98-0.32
Where it misleads: fast growth and acquisitions. Sales growth carries a heavy weight, so a company growing 50% a year scores like a suspect without having done anything. It is a screen from a 1999 study, not an accusation.
Where the statements disagree
Cross-checks between the income statement, the balance sheet and the cash flow for the latest year, each with the benign reading and the worrying one.
Inventory is growing 33% against revenue growing 11%.
Benign
Stocking up for a launch, or securing supply.
Worrying
Demand is softening; discounts or write-downs tend to follow.
What is it worth, under which assumptions?
A company is worth the cash it will generate, brought back to today. This model projects revenue with growth that fades over the years, applies a free cash flow margin, and discounts the result at the cost of capital. Every assumption says where it came from, and all of them can be changed.
77% of the value comes from after year 10: this valuation rests mostly on the long run, which is exactly what is least known.
Value per share, with these assumptions$34.74discounted at 5.7% a year · 77% of it from after year 10
Type a share price on the left to ask the reverse questions: what growth, what margin or what discount rate that price implies.
What the value implies, in the usual multiples
At this model's value
Price ÷ earnings
41.0×
Enterprise value ÷ EBITDA
18.6×
Enterprise value ÷ revenue
6.7×
Free cash flow yield
2.0%
From cash flows to a value per share
10 years of cash flow, today1.5B
Everything after, today5.0B
The whole business6.6B
Minus net debt-962.8M
What belongs to shareholders5.6B
Divided among 161.3M shares: <strong>$34.74</strong> each.
The projection next to its history
Reported free cash flow after stock pay, then the model's. A projection that looks nothing like the past needs a reason.
ReportedProjected
0100M200M300M
2017
2018Reported 17.2M
2019Reported 94.1M
2020Reported 10.1M
2021Reported 154.4M
2022
2022Reported 153.5M
2023Reported 131.6M
2024Reported 129.8M
2025Reported 111.5M
2026Projected 134.4M
2027Projected 153.3M
2028Projected 172.7M
2029Projected 192.0M
2030Projected 210.6M
2031Projected 228.1M
2032Projected 243.6M
2033Projected 256.8M
2034Projected 266.9M
2035Projected 273.6M
2017201920212022202420262028203020322034
Year by year
2026
2027
2028
2029
2030
2031
2032
2033
2034
2035
Revenue
1.1B
1.3B
1.5B
1.6B
1.8B
1.9B
2.0B
2.2B
2.2B
2.3B
Growth
15.5%
14.1%
12.6%
11.2%
9.7%
8.3%
6.8%
5.4%
3.9%
2.5%
Cash margin
11.9%
11.9%
11.9%
11.9%
11.9%
11.9%
11.9%
11.9%
11.9%
11.9%
Free cash flow
134.4M
153.3M
172.7M
192.0M
210.6M
228.1M
243.6M
256.8M
266.9M
273.6M
Worth today
127.2M
137.2M
146.2M
153.8M
159.6M
163.5M
165.3M
164.8M
162.0M
157.1M
If the least-known inputs move
Value per share as two inputs change at a time. Neighbouring cells that differ a lot are the conclusion: the value depends on numbers nobody knows to a point.
The discount rate and growth forever
discount ↓ · forever →
1.5%
2.0%
2.5%
3.0%
3.5%
4.7%
36
44
54
71
101
5.2%
30
36
43
53
69
5.7%
26
30
35
42
52
6.2%
22
25
29
34
41
6.7%
19
22
25
28
33
Year-one growth and the final margin
margin ↓ · growth →
11.5%
13.5%
15.5%
17.5%
19.5%
9.5%
22
25
27
30
33
10.7%
25
28
31
34
38
11.9%
28
31
35
38
42
13.1%
31
35
38
42
47
14.3%
34
38
42
46
51
All the inputs moving at once
4,865 valuations, each with growth, final margin, discount rate and growth forever drawn at random around the values on the left (spreads of 3.0%, 2.0%, 1.0% and 0.5%). Not a probability — the spreads are assumptions too — but an honest picture of how wide the answer is.
10th percentile$19.94
Median$34.31
90th percentile$65.35
$50.00$100.00
Half of the simulations land between <b>$25.76</b> and <b>$47.44</b>; one in ten below $19.94, one in ten above $65.35.
Does the long run make sense?
10.6×The terminal value prices the business in year 10 at 10.6 times that year's EBITDA.
8%To grow 2.5% forever while reinvesting 30% of its after-tax operating profit, the business must earn 8% on the new capital — it has earned 8% on average over the last five years.
77%of the value comes from after year 10. The more of it, the more the answer depends on the part nobody can see.
Every Form 4 filed in the last twelve months, read line by line: 6 filings by 3 people. Open-market purchases and sales are counted apart from awards, option exercises and shares withheld for taxes.
Bought on the open market—none in the period
Sold on the open market—none in the period
Under pre-arranged plans—of the sales followed a 10b5-1 plan set months earlier
A Form 4 says what happened, when, how many shares and at what price. It does not say why: a sale can be diversification, a tax bill or a plan fixed months earlier, and an award is pay, not a purchase. Nothing here is a reason to buy or sell anything.
Which large funds report holding it
From the Form 13F of the 28 institutions followed on this site, as of the end of their last reported quarter. A 13F is filed up to 45 days later and shows only long positions in US-listed shares.
Accounts from the company's own SEC filings; lines some companies do not report are shown as a dash rather than estimated. The risk-free rate is the 10-year US Treasury yield. A DCF is a way of making assumptions explicit, not a forecast: it states what the company would be worth if the assumptions held. The scores are screens that point where to look, not verdicts. Nothing here is a recommendation to buy or sell.
