GXO · Industrials(transportation services) · 8 years of annual accounts filed with the SEC · latest fiscal year ended 2025-12-31
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GXO Logistics, Inc. reported revenue of $13.2 billion in fiscal 2025. Of the $3.0 billion its operations generated over 8 years, 66.1% went back into the business and 64.7% to acquisitions. On the accounting screens, it passes 6 of 7 Piotroski tests and its Altman Z'' of 0.35 is in the distress zone; none of the six cross-checks between its statements fires.
Revenue, fiscal 202513.2B
Operating margin1.9%gross margin —
Return on invested capital—
Free cash flow after stock pay63.0M0.5% of revenue
Net debt ÷ EBITDA—net debt —
Piotroski F-score6/7tests of improvement passed
Is it growing?
Revenue and the operating income it turns into. Growth that does not reach operating income is growth bought with margin.
RevenueOperating income
05B10B15B
2018
2019Revenue 6.1BOperating income 150.0M
2020Revenue 6.2BOperating income 16.0M
2021Revenue 7.9BOperating income 151.0M
2022Revenue 9.0BOperating income 242.0M
2023Revenue 9.8BOperating income 318.0M
2024Revenue 11.7BOperating income 218.0M
2025Revenue 13.2BOperating income 245.0M
20182019202020212022202320242025
Compound growth a year
3 yrs
5 yrs
7 yrs
Revenue
+13.6%
+16.3%
—
Operating income
+0.4%
+72.6%
—
Net income
-45.4%
—
—
Earnings per share
-45.2%
—
—
Free cash flow per share
-17.8%
-0.5%
—
Shares
-0.4%
+0.3%
—
Falling shares are buybacks: each remaining share owns more of the company.
Does it earn more than its capital costs?
Margins say how much of each sale is kept; return on invested capital says how much the business earns on the money it needs to operate. Growth only creates value when that return is above the cost of the capital.
GrossOperatingNetFree cash flow
-2%0%2%4%
2018
2019Operating 2.5%Net 1.0%Free cash flow -1.3%
2020Operating 0.3%Net -0.5%Free cash flow 1.8%
2021Operating 1.9%Net 1.9%Free cash flow 2.6%
2022Operating 2.7%Net 2.2%Free cash flow 2.2%
2023Operating 3.3%Net 2.3%Free cash flow 2.9%
2024Operating 1.9%Net 1.1%Free cash flow 1.6%
2025Operating 1.9%Net 0.2%Free cash flow 0.8%
20182019202020212022202320242025
Return on invested capital
Return on invested capitalCost of capital today · 10.2%
0%5%10%15%
2018
2019
2020
2021
2022
2023
2024
2025
20182019202020212022202320242025
Economic profit
Needs a cost of capital, which comes from the valuation below.
Return on equity
1.1%
Return on assets
0.3%
Asset turnover
1.07×
Overheads (SG&A)
8.4% of revenue
Is the profit cash, and where does the cash go?
Net income is an accounting opinion; free cash flow is what was left in the bank after investing. Stock-based pay does not leave the bank — shareholders pay it through dilution — so it is shown taken off as well.
Net incomeFree cash flowAfter stock-based pay
-100M0100M200M300M
2018
2019Net income 60.0MFree cash flow -77.0MAfter stock-based pay -100.0M
2020Net income -31.0MFree cash flow 111.0MAfter stock-based pay 86.0M
2021Net income 153.0MFree cash flow 205.0MAfter stock-based pay 177.0M
2022Net income 197.0MFree cash flow 200.0MAfter stock-based pay 167.0M
2023Net income 229.0MFree cash flow 284.0MAfter stock-based pay 249.0M
2024Net income 134.0MFree cash flow 190.0MAfter stock-based pay 151.0M
2025Net income 32.0MFree cash flow 110.0MAfter stock-based pay 63.0M
20182019202020212022202320242025
Where 8 years of operating cash went, 2018–2025
3.0B generated by the business. Each band is its share of that total.
Reinvested in the business 66%2.0B
Acquisitions 65%1.9B
Dividends 0%0
Share buybacks 7%200.0M
More than it generated: funded with cash or new debt -37%-1.1B
Over the same years it paid 230.0M in stock. The buybacks did not even cover what was handed out in stock.
Per share
Earnings per shareFree cash flow per shareDividend per share
-$1$0$1$2$3
2018
2019Earnings per share $0.52Free cash flow per share $-0.67
2020Earnings per share $-0.27Free cash flow per share $0.97
2021Earnings per share $1.32Free cash flow per share $1.77
2022Earnings per share $1.67Free cash flow per share $1.70
2023Earnings per share $1.92Free cash flow per share $2.38
2024Earnings per share $1.12Free cash flow per share $1.59
2025Earnings per share $0.28Free cash flow per share $0.95
20182019202020212022202320242025
Shares outstanding
Diluted shares
114M116M118M120M
2018
2019Diluted shares 114.6M
2020Diluted shares 114.6M
2021Diluted shares 115.6M
2022Diluted shares 117.6M
2023Diluted shares 119.5M
2024Diluted shares 119.8M
2025Diluted shares 116.3M
20182019202020212022202320242025
Debt and liquidity
Debt is not bad in itself; debt the business cannot service in a bad year is. Net debt is debt minus cash, and below zero the company holds more cash than it owes.
Net debt ÷ EBITDA
—
Interest coverage
2× operating income ÷ interest
Current ratio
0.85 current assets ÷ current liabilities
Cash conversion cycle
— collects in 56d
Three classic screens of the accounts
Each asks a different question of the same statements — is it improving, does it look like a company heading for distress, do the accounts resemble ones that were manipulated. None is a verdict; each shows what moves it.
Piotroski F-score
Is the business improving? Nine yes-or-no tests, this year against last.
6of 7 tests passed
✓ProfitableReturn on assets above zeropassed
✓Cash from operationsOperating cash flow above zeropassed
✕Profitability improvedReturn on assets higher than a year beforefailed
✓Profit backed by cashOperating cash flow above net income (low accruals)passed
–Less long-term debtLong-term debt as a share of assets fell — not reportedno data
✓More liquidCurrent ratio higher than a year beforepassed
✓No new sharesShare count did not growpassed
–Better gross marginGross margin higher than a year before — not reportedno data
✓Sells more per assetAsset turnover higher than a year beforepassed
Where it misleads: it measures change, not level. An excellent business that stood still for a year scores low; a poor one recovering from a disaster scores high.
Altman Z''-score
Does the balance sheet look like those of companies that went bankrupt?
0.35distress zone
1.12.6
Working capital ÷ assets -0.05 × 6.56-0.31
Retained earnings ÷ assets 0.06 × 3.26+0.19
Operating income ÷ assets 0.02 × 6.72+0.13
Equity ÷ liabilities 0.32 × 1.05+0.34
Where it misleads: buybacks. A company that returns so much cash that its equity turns small or negative sinks the last two ratios without being anywhere near bankruptcy. Banks and insurers do not fit the model at all.
Beneish M-score
Do the accounts resemble those of companies that manipulated their earnings?
The accounts lack too many of the lines it needs.
Where the statements disagree
Cross-checks between the income statement, the balance sheet and the cash flow for the latest year, each with the benign reading and the worrying one.
None of the six cross-checks fires for the latest year: receivables and inventory move with revenue, profit turns into cash, investment keeps up with depreciation, the tax rate is ordinary and debt is moderate.
What is it worth, under which assumptions?
A company is worth the cash it will generate, brought back to today. This model projects revenue with growth that fades over the years, applies a free cash flow margin, and discounts the result at the cost of capital. Every assumption says where it came from, and all of them can be changed.
Value per share, with these assumptions$29.01discounted at 10.2% a year · 53% of it from after year 10
Type a share price on the left to ask the reverse questions: what growth, what margin or what discount rate that price implies.
What the value implies, in the usual multiples
At this model's value
Price ÷ earnings
105.4×
Enterprise value ÷ EBITDA
4.8×
Enterprise value ÷ revenue
0.3×
Free cash flow yield
1.9%
From cash flows to a value per share
10 years of cash flow, today1.6B
Everything after, today1.8B
The whole business3.4B
Minus net debt-0
What belongs to shareholders3.4B
Divided among 116.3M shares: <strong>$29.01</strong> each.
The projection next to its history
Reported free cash flow after stock pay, then the model's. A projection that looks nothing like the past needs a reason.
ReportedProjected
-200M0200M400M
2018
2019Reported -100.0M
2020Reported 86.0M
2021Reported 177.0M
2022Reported 167.0M
2023Reported 249.0M
2024Reported 151.0M
2025Reported 63.0M
2026Projected 170.2M
2027Projected 195.7M
2028Projected 221.9M
2029Projected 248.1M
2030Projected 273.7M
2031Projected 297.5M
2032Projected 318.8M
2033Projected 336.7M
2034Projected 350.4M
2035Projected 359.1M
201820202022202420262028203020322034
Year by year
2026
2027
2028
2029
2030
2031
2032
2033
2034
2035
Revenue
15.4B
17.6B
20.0B
22.4B
24.7B
26.8B
28.8B
30.4B
31.6B
32.4B
Growth
16.5%
14.9%
13.4%
11.8%
10.3%
8.7%
7.2%
5.6%
4.1%
2.5%
Cash margin
1.1%
1.1%
1.1%
1.1%
1.1%
1.1%
1.1%
1.1%
1.1%
1.1%
Free cash flow
170.2M
195.7M
221.9M
248.1M
273.7M
297.5M
318.8M
336.7M
350.4M
359.1M
Worth today
154.4M
161.0M
165.6M
168.0M
168.1M
165.8M
161.1M
154.4M
145.7M
135.5M
If the least-known inputs move
Value per share as two inputs change at a time. Neighbouring cells that differ a lot are the conclusion: the value depends on numbers nobody knows to a point.
The discount rate and growth forever
discount ↓ · forever →
1.5%
2.0%
2.5%
3.0%
3.5%
9.2%
30
32
34
36
39
9.7%
28
29
31
33
35
10.2%
26
28
29
31
33
10.7%
25
26
27
29
30
11.2%
23
24
25
27
28
Year-one growth and the final margin
margin ↓ · growth →
12.5%
14.5%
16.5%
18.5%
20.5%
0.9%
21
23
25
26
29
1.0%
23
25
27
29
31
1.1%
25
27
29
31
34
1.2%
27
29
31
34
37
1.3%
29
31
34
36
39
All the inputs moving at once
5,000 valuations, each with growth, final margin, discount rate and growth forever drawn at random around the values on the left (spreads of 3.0%, 2.0%, 1.0% and 0.5%). Not a probability — the spreads are assumptions too — but an honest picture of how wide the answer is.
10th percentile$-23.33
Median$29.39
90th percentile$84.72
$0.00$100.00
Half of the simulations land between <b>$2.19</b> and <b>$58.12</b>; one in ten below $-23.33, one in ten above $84.72.
Does the long run make sense?
2.8×The terminal value prices the business in year 10 at 2.8 times that year's EBITDA.
30%To grow 2.5% forever while reinvesting 8% of its after-tax operating profit, the business must earn 30% on the new capital.
53%of the value comes from after year 10. The more of it, the more the answer depends on the part nobody can see.
What lenders charge, after the tax saving on interest: 6.74% × (1 − 35.0%) = <strong>4.38%</strong>.
Weighted by how much of each the company uses (book value (no price given)): <strong>10.24%</strong>, the rate every future cash flow is discounted at.
What it has filed lately
The last twelve months at the SEC, most important first: annual and quarterly reports, events, large holders and insiders.
Every Form 4 filed in the last twelve months, read line by line: 6 filings by 5 people. Open-market purchases and sales are counted apart from awards, option exercises and shares withheld for taxes.
Bought on the open market—none in the period
Sold on the open market—none in the period
Under pre-arranged plans—of the sales followed a 10b5-1 plan set months earlier
A Form 4 says what happened, when, how many shares and at what price. It does not say why: a sale can be diversification, a tax bill or a plan fixed months earlier, and an award is pay, not a purchase. Nothing here is a reason to buy or sell anything.
Which large funds report holding it
From the Form 13F of the 28 institutions followed on this site, as of the end of their last reported quarter. A 13F is filed up to 45 days later and shows only long positions in US-listed shares.
Accounts from the company's own SEC filings; lines some companies do not report are shown as a dash rather than estimated. The risk-free rate is the 10-year US Treasury yield. A DCF is a way of making assumptions explicit, not a forecast: it states what the company would be worth if the assumptions held. The scores are screens that point where to look, not verdicts. Nothing here is a recommendation to buy or sell.
