UTZ · Consumer staples(miscellaneous food preparations & kindred products) · 10 years of annual accounts filed with the SEC · latest fiscal year ended 2025-12-28
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Utz Brands, Inc. reported revenue of $1.4 billion in fiscal 2025. Of the $391.2 million its operations generated over 10 years, 106.1% went back into the business and 30.1% to acquisitions. On the accounting screens, it passes 4 of 9 Piotroski tests, its Altman Z'' of 0.33 is in the distress zone and its Beneish M-score is below the -1.78 line; 2 of the six cross-checks between its statements fire.
Revenue, fiscal 20251.4B
Operating margin1.4%gross margin 24.9%
Return on invested capital16.0%4.8% on average over 4 years
Free cash flow after stock pay-7.7M-0.5% of revenue
Net debt ÷ EBITDA7.2×net debt 729.2M
Piotroski F-score4/9tests of improvement passed
Is it growing?
Revenue and the operating income it turns into. Growth that does not reach operating income is growth bought with margin.
RevenueOperating income
-0.5B00.5B1.0B1.5B
2019Operating income -998,232
2020
2020
2021
2022Revenue 1.2BOperating income 10.6M
2022
2023Revenue 1.4BOperating income 5.3M
2023Revenue 1.4BOperating income 16.0M
2024Revenue 1.4BOperating income 58.9M
2025Revenue 1.4BOperating income 19.5M
2019202020202021202220222023202320242025
Compound growth a year
3 yrs
5 yrs
9 yrs
Revenue
+0.7%
+4.0%
—
Operating income
+54.0%
+13.0%
—
Net income
—
-47.8%
-22.5%
Earnings per share
—
-48.6%
—
Free cash flow per share
—
-12.2%
—
Dividend per share
+5.9%
+11.6%
—
Shares
+3.1%
+1.6%
—
Falling shares are buybacks: each remaining share owns more of the company.
Does it earn more than its capital costs?
Margins say how much of each sale is kept; return on invested capital says how much the business earns on the money it needs to operate. Growth only creates value when that return is above the cost of the capital.
Return on invested capitalCost of capital today · 7.5%
0%5%10%15%20%
2019
2020
2020
2021
2022Return on invested capital 0.3%
2022
2023Return on invested capital 0.5%
2023Return on invested capital 1.0%
2024Return on invested capital 1.8%
2025Return on invested capital 16.0%
2019202020202021202220222023202320242025
Economic profit
Economic profit
-200M-100M0100M200M
2019
2020
2020
2021
2022Economic profit -109.2M
2022
2023Economic profit -112.8M
2023Economic profit -101.7M
2024Economic profit -84.2M
2025Economic profit 132.6M
2019202020202021202220222023202320242025
(return on capital − cost of capital) × capital invested: the profit left after paying for the money used. Today's cost of capital is applied to every year, since a past one cannot be rebuilt honestly.
Return on equity
0.1%
Return on assets
0.0%
Asset turnover
0.52×
Overheads (SG&A)
24.2% of revenue
Is the profit cash, and where does the cash go?
Net income is an accounting opinion; free cash flow is what was left in the bank after investing. Stock-based pay does not leave the bank — shareholders pay it through dilution — so it is shown taken off as well.
Net incomeFree cash flowAfter stock-based pay
-60M-40M-20M020M40M
2019Net income 8.0M
2020
2020
2021
2022Net income 20.6MFree cash flow 16.6MAfter stock-based pay 3.7M
2022
2023Net income -392,000Free cash flow -39.8MAfter stock-based pay -50.4M
2023Net income -24.9MFree cash flow 20.9MAfter stock-based pay 3.8M
2024Net income 15.9MFree cash flow 7.6MAfter stock-based pay -10.7M
2025Net income 800,000Free cash flow 9.4MAfter stock-based pay -7.7M
2019202020202021202220222023202320242025
Where 10 years of operating cash went, 2019–2025
391.2M generated by the business. Each band is its share of that total.
Reinvested in the business 106%415.2M
Acquisitions 30%117.7M
Dividends 23%91.6M
Share buybacks 0%0
More than it generated: funded with cash or new debt -60%-233.2M
Over the same years it paid 76.1M in stock.
Per share
Earnings per shareFree cash flow per shareDividend per share
-$0.60-$0.40-$0.20$0.00$0.20$0.40
2019
2020
2020
2021
2022Earnings per share $0.25Free cash flow per share $0.21Dividend per share $0.15
2022
2023Earnings per share $-0.00Free cash flow per share $-0.50Dividend per share $0.21
2023Earnings per share $-0.31Free cash flow per share $0.26Dividend per share $0.23
2024Earnings per share $0.19Free cash flow per share $0.09Dividend per share $0.25
2025Earnings per share $0.01Free cash flow per share $0.11Dividend per share $0.25
2019202020202021202220222023202320242025
Shares outstanding
Diluted shares
80M82M84M86M88M
2019
2020
2020
2021
2022Diluted shares 81.1M
2022
2023Diluted shares 80.1M
2023Diluted shares 81.1M
2024Diluted shares 85.4M
2025Diluted shares 87.8M
2019202020202021202220222023202320242025
Debt and liquidity
Debt is not bad in itself; debt the business cannot service in a bad year is. Net debt is debt minus cash, and below zero the company holds more cash than it owes.
Net debt
00.25B0.50B0.75B1.00B
2019
2020
2020
2021Net debt 731.6M
2022Net debt 800.1M
2022
2023Net debt 838.9M
2023Net debt 847.6M
2024Net debt 712.5M
2025Net debt 729.2M
2019202020202021202220222023202320242025
Net debt ÷ EBITDA
7.2×
Interest coverage
0× operating income ÷ interest
Current ratio
1.19 current assets ÷ current liabilities
Cash conversion cycle
-1 days collects in 26d, stock 40d, pays in 67d
Three classic screens of the accounts
Each asks a different question of the same statements — is it improving, does it look like a company heading for distress, do the accounts resemble ones that were manipulated. None is a verdict; each shows what moves it.
Piotroski F-score
Is the business improving? Nine yes-or-no tests, this year against last.
4of 9 tests passed
✓ProfitableReturn on assets above zeropassed
✓Cash from operationsOperating cash flow above zeropassed
✕Profitability improvedReturn on assets higher than a year beforefailed
✓Profit backed by cashOperating cash flow above net income (low accruals)passed
✕Less long-term debtLong-term debt as a share of assets fellfailed
✓More liquidCurrent ratio higher than a year beforepassed
✕No new sharesShare count did not growfailed
✕Better gross marginGross margin higher than a year beforefailed
✕Sells more per assetAsset turnover higher than a year beforefailed
Where it misleads: it measures change, not level. An excellent business that stood still for a year scores low; a poor one recovering from a disaster scores high.
Altman Z''-score
Does the balance sheet look like those of companies that went bankrupt?
0.33distress zone
1.12.6
Working capital ÷ assets 0.02 × 6.56+0.14
Retained earnings ÷ assets -0.12 × 3.26-0.38
Operating income ÷ assets 0.01 × 6.72+0.05
Equity ÷ liabilities 0.49 × 1.05+0.52
Where it misleads: buybacks. A company that returns so much cash that its equity turns small or negative sinks the last two ratios without being anywhere near bankruptcy. Banks and insurers do not fit the model at all.
Beneish M-score
Do the accounts resemble those of companies that manipulated their earnings?
-2.82below the -1.78 line
-1.78
Receivables vs sales 0.82+0.76
Gross margin slipping 1.05+0.56
Soft assets 1.00 (not reported, set to 1)+0.40
Sales growth 1.02+0.91
Slower depreciation 1.00 (not reported, set to 1)+0.12
Overheads vs sales 1.10-0.19
Profit not in cash -0.04-0.19
Leverage rising 1.07-0.35
Where it misleads: fast growth and acquisitions. Sales growth carries a heavy weight, so a company growing 50% a year scores like a suspect without having done anything. It is a screen from a 1999 study, not an accusation.
Where the statements disagree
Cross-checks between the income statement, the balance sheet and the cash flow for the latest year, each with the benign reading and the worrying one.
The effective tax rate is -1183.3%.
Benign
A favourable geographic mix, or legitimate tax credits.
Worrying
Not sustainable; projecting it forward inflates the valuation.
Net debt is 7.2 times EBITDA.
Benign
A stable sector with predictable cash flows and comfortable maturities.
Worrying
Little room if earnings fall; the maturity schedule is what to check.
What is it worth, under which assumptions?
A company is worth the cash it will generate, brought back to today. This model projects revenue with growth that fades over the years, applies a free cash flow margin, and discounts the result at the cost of capital. Every assumption says where it came from, and all of them can be changed.
Value per share, with these assumptions$20.69discounted at 7.5% a year · 63% of it from after year 10
Type a share price on the left to ask the reverse questions: what growth, what margin or what discount rate that price implies.
What the value implies, in the usual multiples
At this model's value
Price ÷ earnings
2270.4×
Enterprise value ÷ EBITDA
25.0×
Enterprise value ÷ revenue
1.8×
Free cash flow yield
-0.4%
From cash flows to a value per share
10 years of cash flow, today946.3M
Everything after, today1.6B
The whole business2.5B
Minus net debt-729.2M
What belongs to shareholders1.8B
Divided among 87.8M shares: <strong>$20.69</strong> each.
The projection next to its history
Reported free cash flow after stock pay, then the model's. A projection that looks nothing like the past needs a reason.
ReportedProjected
-100M0100M200M
2019
2020
2020
2021
2022Reported 3.7M
2022
2023Reported -50.4M
2023Reported 3.8M
2024Reported -10.7M
2025Reported -7.7M
2026Projected 117.6M
2027Projected 123.2M
2028Projected 128.7M
2029Projected 134.0M
2030Projected 139.2M
2031Projected 144.3M
2032Projected 149.1M
2033Projected 153.6M
2034Projected 157.9M
2035Projected 161.9M
2019202020222023202420262028203020322034
Year by year
2026
2027
2028
2029
2030
2031
2032
2033
2034
2035
Revenue
1.5B
1.6B
1.7B
1.7B
1.8B
1.9B
1.9B
2.0B
2.0B
2.1B
Growth
5.0%
4.7%
4.4%
4.2%
3.9%
3.6%
3.3%
3.1%
2.8%
2.5%
Cash margin
7.8%
7.8%
7.8%
7.8%
7.8%
7.8%
7.8%
7.8%
7.8%
7.8%
Free cash flow
117.6M
123.2M
128.7M
134.0M
139.2M
144.3M
149.1M
153.6M
157.9M
161.9M
Worth today
109.4M
106.6M
103.5M
100.3M
96.9M
93.4M
89.7M
86.0M
82.2M
78.4M
If the least-known inputs move
Value per share as two inputs change at a time. Neighbouring cells that differ a lot are the conclusion: the value depends on numbers nobody knows to a point.
The discount rate and growth forever
discount ↓ · forever →
1.5%
2.0%
2.5%
3.0%
3.5%
6.5%
22
25
28
33
38
7.0%
19
21
24
27
32
7.5%
17
18
21
23
27
8.0%
15
16
18
20
23
8.5%
13
14
16
18
20
Year-one growth and the final margin
margin ↓ · growth →
1.0%
3.0%
5.0%
7.0%
9.0%
6.2%
12
14
16
18
20
7.0%
14
16
18
21
23
7.8%
16
18
21
23
26
8.6%
18
20
23
26
29
9.3%
20
23
25
28
32
All the inputs moving at once
4,998 valuations, each with growth, final margin, discount rate and growth forever drawn at random around the values on the left (spreads of 3.0%, 2.0%, 1.0% and 0.5%). Not a probability — the spreads are assumptions too — but an honest picture of how wide the answer is.
10th percentile$10.81
Median$20.66
90th percentile$36.83
$20.00$40.00$60.00
Half of the simulations land between <b>$15.02</b> and <b>$28.06</b>; one in ten below $10.81, one in ten above $36.83.
Does the long run make sense?
22.4×The terminal value prices the business in year 10 at 22.4 times that year's EBITDA.
Free growthIn year 10 free cash flow is at or above after-tax operating profit, yet the model grows 2.5% forever. Growth needs reinvestment; this assumes it comes for free, which flatters the terminal value.
63%of the value comes from after year 10. The more of it, the more the answer depends on the part nobody can see.
Every Form 4 filed in the last twelve months, read line by line: 6 filings by 6 people. Open-market purchases and sales are counted apart from awards, option exercises and shares withheld for taxes.
Bought on the open market—none in the period
Sold on the open market—none in the period
Under pre-arranged plans—of the sales followed a 10b5-1 plan set months earlier
A Form 4 says what happened, when, how many shares and at what price. It does not say why: a sale can be diversification, a tax bill or a plan fixed months earlier, and an award is pay, not a purchase. Nothing here is a reason to buy or sell anything.
Which large funds report holding it
From the Form 13F of the 28 institutions followed on this site, as of the end of their last reported quarter. A 13F is filed up to 45 days later and shows only long positions in US-listed shares.
Accounts from the company's own SEC filings; lines some companies do not report are shown as a dash rather than estimated. The risk-free rate is the 10-year US Treasury yield. A DCF is a way of making assumptions explicit, not a forecast: it states what the company would be worth if the assumptions held. The scores are screens that point where to look, not verdicts. Nothing here is a recommendation to buy or sell.
