USFD · Consumer staples(wholesale-groceries & related products) · 10 years of annual accounts filed with the SEC · latest fiscal year ended 2025-12-27
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US Foods Holding Corp. reported revenue of $39.4 billion in fiscal 2025, after growing 6.2% a year over the previous 9 years. Its operating margin widened from 1.8% in 2016 to 3.0%. Of the $7.9 billion its operations generated over 10 years, 45.9% went to acquisitions and 33.5% back into the business; the share count rose 12.7%. On the accounting screens, it passes 7 of 8 Piotroski tests, its Altman Z'' of 1.94 is in the grey zone and its Beneish M-score is below the -1.78 line; none of the six cross-checks between its statements fires.
Revenue, fiscal 202539.4B+6.2% a year over 9 years
Operating margin3.0%gross margin 17.4%
Return on invested capital—
Free cash flow after stock pay876.0M2.2% of revenue
Net debt ÷ EBITDA—net debt —
Piotroski F-score7/8tests of improvement passed
Is it growing?
Revenue and the operating income it turns into. Growth that does not reach operating income is growth bought with margin.
RevenueOperating income
-10B010B20B30B40B
2016Revenue 22.9BOperating income 419.0M
2017Revenue 24.1BOperating income 588.0M
2018Revenue 24.2BOperating income 658.0M
2019Revenue 25.9BOperating income 699.0M
2021Revenue 22.9BOperating income -77.0M
2022Revenue 29.5BOperating income 424.0M
2022Revenue 34.1BOperating income 594.0M
2023Revenue 35.6BOperating income 1.0B
2024Revenue 37.9BOperating income 1.1B
2025Revenue 39.4BOperating income 1.2B
2016201720182019202120222022202320242025
Compound growth a year
3 yrs
5 yrs
9 yrs
Revenue
+5.0%
+11.5%
+6.2%
Operating income
+26.4%
—
+12.4%
Net income
+36.6%
—
+13.9%
Earnings per share
+35.8%
—
+12.4%
Free cash flow per share
+23.5%
+32.6%
+9.2%
Shares
+0.6%
+0.9%
+1.3%
Falling shares are buybacks: each remaining share owns more of the company.
Does it earn more than its capital costs?
Margins say how much of each sale is kept; return on invested capital says how much the business earns on the money it needs to operate. Growth only creates value when that return is above the cost of the capital.
Return on invested capitalCost of capital today · 10.2%
0%5%10%15%
2016Return on invested capital 2.6%
2017Return on invested capital 8.1%
2018
2019
2021
2022
2022
2023
2024
2025
2016201720182019202120222022202320242025
Economic profit
Economic profit
-600M-400M-200M0
2016Economic profit -480.8M
2017Economic profit -141.0M
2018
2019
2021
2022
2022
2023
2024
2025
2016201720182019202120222022202320242025
(return on capital − cost of capital) × capital invested: the profit left after paying for the money used. Today's cost of capital is applied to every year, since a past one cannot be rebuilt honestly.
Return on equity
15.7%
Return on assets
4.8%
Asset turnover
2.83×
Overheads (SG&A)
14.3% of revenue
Is the profit cash, and where does the cash go?
Net income is an accounting opinion; free cash flow is what was left in the bank after investing. Stock-based pay does not leave the bank — shareholders pay it through dilution — so it is shown taken off as well.
Net incomeFree cash flowAfter stock-based pay
-0.5B00.5B1.0B
2016Net income 210.0MFree cash flow 385.0MAfter stock-based pay 367.0M
2017Net income 444.0MFree cash flow 528.0MAfter stock-based pay 507.0M
2018Net income 407.0MFree cash flow 374.0MAfter stock-based pay 346.0M
2019Net income 385.0MFree cash flow 502.0MAfter stock-based pay 470.0M
2021Net income -226.0MFree cash flow 224.0MAfter stock-based pay 184.0M
2022Net income 164.0MFree cash flow 145.0MAfter stock-based pay 97.0M
2022Net income 265.0MFree cash flow 500.0MAfter stock-based pay 455.0M
2023Net income 506.0MFree cash flow 831.0MAfter stock-based pay 775.0M
2024Net income 494.0MFree cash flow 833.0MAfter stock-based pay 770.0M
2025Net income 676.0MFree cash flow 959.0MAfter stock-based pay 876.0M
2016201720182019202120222022202320242025
Where 10 years of operating cash went, 2016–2025
7.9B generated by the business. Each band is its share of that total.
Reinvested in the business 34%2.7B
Acquisitions 46%3.6B
Dividends 0%0
Share buybacks 31%2.5B
More than it generated: funded with cash or new debt -10%-830.0M
Over the same years it paid 434.0M in stock. The share count rose 12.7%. 2.0B of the buybacks went beyond offsetting that dilution.
Per share
Earnings per shareFree cash flow per shareDividend per share
-$2$0$2$4$6
2016Earnings per share $1.03Free cash flow per share $1.89
2017Earnings per share $1.96Free cash flow per share $2.34
2018Earnings per share $1.87Free cash flow per share $1.72
2019Earnings per share $1.75Free cash flow per share $2.28
2021Earnings per share $-1.03Free cash flow per share $1.02
2022Earnings per share $0.73Free cash flow per share $0.64
2022Earnings per share $1.17Free cash flow per share $2.21
2023Earnings per share $2.02Free cash flow per share $3.32
2024Earnings per share $2.02Free cash flow per share $3.41
2025Earnings per share $2.94Free cash flow per share $4.17
2016201720182019202120222022202320242025
Shares outstanding
Diluted shares
200M220M240M260M
2016Diluted shares 204.0M
2017Diluted shares 226.0M
2018Diluted shares 218.0M
2019Diluted shares 220.0M
2021Diluted shares 220.0M
2022Diluted shares 225.0M
2022Diluted shares 226.0M
2023Diluted shares 250.0M
2024Diluted shares 244.0M
2025Diluted shares 230.0M
2016201720182019202120222022202320242025
Debt and liquidity
Debt is not bad in itself; debt the business cannot service in a bad year is. Net debt is debt minus cash, and below zero the company holds more cash than it owes.
Net debt
01B2B3B4B
2016Net debt 3.7B
2017Net debt 3.7B
2018
2019
2021
2022
2022
2023
2024
2025
2016201720182019202120222022202320242025
Net debt ÷ EBITDA
—
Interest coverage
4× operating income ÷ interest
Current ratio
1.16 current assets ÷ current liabilities
Cash conversion cycle
11 days collects in 19d, stock 19d, pays in 27d
Three classic screens of the accounts
Each asks a different question of the same statements — is it improving, does it look like a company heading for distress, do the accounts resemble ones that were manipulated. None is a verdict; each shows what moves it.
Piotroski F-score
Is the business improving? Nine yes-or-no tests, this year against last.
7of 8 tests passed
✓ProfitableReturn on assets above zeropassed
✓Cash from operationsOperating cash flow above zeropassed
✓Profitability improvedReturn on assets higher than a year beforepassed
✓Profit backed by cashOperating cash flow above net income (low accruals)passed
–Less long-term debtLong-term debt as a share of assets fell — not reportedno data
✕More liquidCurrent ratio higher than a year beforefailed
✓No new sharesShare count did not growpassed
✓Better gross marginGross margin higher than a year beforepassed
✓Sells more per assetAsset turnover higher than a year beforepassed
Where it misleads: it measures change, not level. An excellent business that stood still for a year scores low; a poor one recovering from a disaster scores high.
Altman Z''-score
Does the balance sheet look like those of companies that went bankrupt?
1.94grey zone
1.12.6
Working capital ÷ assets 0.04 × 6.56+0.27
Retained earnings ÷ assets 0.19 × 3.26+0.63
Operating income ÷ assets 0.09 × 6.72+0.58
Equity ÷ liabilities 0.45 × 1.05+0.47
Where it misleads: buybacks. A company that returns so much cash that its equity turns small or negative sinks the last two ratios without being anywhere near bankruptcy. Banks and insurers do not fit the model at all.
Beneish M-score
Do the accounts resemble those of companies that manipulated their earnings?
-2.71below the -1.78 line
-1.78
Receivables vs sales 0.99+0.92
Gross margin slipping 0.99+0.52
Soft assets 0.97+0.39
Sales growth 1.04+0.93
Slower depreciation 1.05+0.12
Overheads vs sales 1.00-0.17
Profit not in cash -0.05-0.23
Leverage rising 1.05-0.34
Where it misleads: fast growth and acquisitions. Sales growth carries a heavy weight, so a company growing 50% a year scores like a suspect without having done anything. It is a screen from a 1999 study, not an accusation.
Where the statements disagree
Cross-checks between the income statement, the balance sheet and the cash flow for the latest year, each with the benign reading and the worrying one.
None of the six cross-checks fires for the latest year: receivables and inventory move with revenue, profit turns into cash, investment keeps up with depreciation, the tax rate is ordinary and debt is moderate.
What is it worth, under which assumptions?
A company is worth the cash it will generate, brought back to today. This model projects revenue with growth that fades over the years, applies a free cash flow margin, and discounts the result at the cost of capital. Every assumption says where it came from, and all of them can be changed.
Value per share, with these assumptions$78.24discounted at 10.2% a year · 52% of it from after year 10
Type a share price on the left to ask the reverse questions: what growth, what margin or what discount rate that price implies.
What the value implies, in the usual multiples
At this model's value
Price ÷ earnings
26.6×
Enterprise value ÷ EBITDA
10.8×
Enterprise value ÷ revenue
0.5×
Free cash flow yield
4.9%
From cash flows to a value per share
10 years of cash flow, today8.7B
Everything after, today9.3B
The whole business18.0B
Minus net debt-0
What belongs to shareholders18.0B
Divided among 230.0M shares: <strong>$78.24</strong> each.
The projection next to its history
Reported free cash flow after stock pay, then the model's. A projection that looks nothing like the past needs a reason.
ReportedProjected
00.5B1.0B1.5B2.0B
2016Reported 367.0M
2017Reported 507.0M
2018Reported 346.0M
2019Reported 470.0M
2021Reported 184.0M
2022Reported 97.0M
2022Reported 455.0M
2023Reported 775.0M
2024Reported 770.0M
2025Reported 876.0M
2026Projected 1.1B
2027Projected 1.2B
2028Projected 1.3B
2029Projected 1.4B
2030Projected 1.5B
2031Projected 1.6B
2032Projected 1.7B
2033Projected 1.8B
2034Projected 1.8B
2035Projected 1.9B
2016201820212022202420262028203020322034
Year by year
2026
2027
2028
2029
2030
2031
2032
2033
2034
2035
Revenue
44.0B
48.6B
53.2B
57.7B
62.0B
66.1B
69.7B
72.8B
75.4B
77.3B
Growth
11.5%
10.5%
9.5%
8.5%
7.5%
6.5%
5.5%
4.5%
3.5%
2.5%
Cash margin
2.4%
2.4%
2.4%
2.4%
2.4%
2.4%
2.4%
2.4%
2.4%
2.4%
Free cash flow
1.1B
1.2B
1.3B
1.4B
1.5B
1.6B
1.7B
1.8B
1.8B
1.9B
Worth today
958.4M
960.7M
954.2M
939.2M
915.8M
884.8M
846.7M
802.6M
753.6M
700.7M
If the least-known inputs move
Value per share as two inputs change at a time. Neighbouring cells that differ a lot are the conclusion: the value depends on numbers nobody knows to a point.
The discount rate and growth forever
discount ↓ · forever →
1.5%
2.0%
2.5%
3.0%
3.5%
9.2%
81
85
91
96
103
9.7%
76
80
84
89
95
10.2%
71
74
78
83
88
10.7%
67
70
73
77
81
11.2%
63
66
69
72
76
Year-one growth and the final margin
margin ↓ · growth →
7.5%
9.5%
11.5%
13.5%
15.5%
1.9%
57
61
66
71
77
2.2%
62
67
72
78
84
2.4%
67
72
78
85
91
2.6%
72
78
84
91
99
2.9%
77
83
90
98
106
All the inputs moving at once
5,000 valuations, each with growth, final margin, discount rate and growth forever drawn at random around the values on the left (spreads of 3.0%, 2.0%, 1.0% and 0.5%). Not a probability — the spreads are assumptions too — but an honest picture of how wide the answer is.
10th percentile$15.39
Median$78.25
90th percentile$151.35
$0.00$100.00$200.00
Half of the simulations land between <b>$45.04</b> and <b>$114.64</b>; one in ten below $15.39, one in ten above $151.35.
Does the long run make sense?
7.6×The terminal value prices the business in year 10 at 7.6 times that year's EBITDA.
Free growthIn year 10 free cash flow is at or above after-tax operating profit, yet the model grows 2.5% forever. Growth needs reinvestment; this assumes it comes for free, which flatters the terminal value.
52%of the value comes from after year 10. The more of it, the more the answer depends on the part nobody can see.
What lenders charge, after the tax saving on interest: 6.74% × (1 − 24.7%) = <strong>5.07%</strong>.
Weighted by how much of each the company uses (book value (no price given)): <strong>10.24%</strong>, the rate every future cash flow is discounted at.
What it has filed lately
The last twelve months at the SEC, most important first: annual and quarterly reports, events, large holders and insiders.
Every Form 4 filed in the last twelve months, read line by line: 6 filings by 5 people. Open-market purchases and sales are counted apart from awards, option exercises and shares withheld for taxes.
Bought on the open market—none in the period
Sold on the open market$3.6M3 sale(s) by 2 insider(s)
Under pre-arranged plans0%of the sales followed a 10b5-1 plan set months earlier
A Form 4 says what happened, when, how many shares and at what price. It does not say why: a sale can be diversification, a tax bill or a plan fixed months earlier, and an award is pay, not a purchase. Nothing here is a reason to buy or sell anything.
Which large funds report holding it
From the Form 13F of the 28 institutions followed on this site, as of the end of their last reported quarter. A 13F is filed up to 45 days later and shows only long positions in US-listed shares.
Accounts from the company's own SEC filings; lines some companies do not report are shown as a dash rather than estimated. The risk-free rate is the 10-year US Treasury yield. A DCF is a way of making assumptions explicit, not a forecast: it states what the company would be worth if the assumptions held. The scores are screens that point where to look, not verdicts. Nothing here is a recommendation to buy or sell.
