SBGI · Communication(television broadcasting stations) · 6 years of annual accounts filed with the SEC · latest fiscal year ended 2025-12-31
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Sinclair, Inc. reported revenue of $3.2 billion in fiscal 2025. Of the $1.6 billion its operations generated over 6 years, 26.4% went back into the business and 20.3% to buybacks. On the accounting screens, it passes 2 of 8 Piotroski tests and its Altman Z'' of 1.28 is in the grey zone; 4 of the six cross-checks between its statements fire.
Revenue, fiscal 20253.2B
Operating margin5.5%gross margin —
Return on invested capital4.9%95.7% on average over 4 years
Free cash flow after stock pay64.0M2.0% of revenue
Net debt ÷ EBITDA8.3×net debt 3.5B
Piotroski F-score2/8tests of improvement passed
Is it growing?
Revenue and the operating income it turns into. Growth that does not reach operating income is growth bought with margin.
RevenueOperating income
-2B02B4B6B8B
2020
2021Revenue 6.1BOperating income 95.0M
2022Revenue 3.9BOperating income 4.0B
2023Revenue 3.1BOperating income -331.0M
2024Revenue 3.5BOperating income 551.0M
2025Revenue 3.2BOperating income 173.0M
202020212022202320242025
Compound growth a year
3 yrs
5 yrs
Revenue
-6.9%
—
Operating income
-64.8%
—
Free cash flow per share
-44.7%
—
Dividend per share
+0.3%
—
Shares
-0.7%
—
Falling shares are buybacks: each remaining share owns more of the company.
Does it earn more than its capital costs?
Margins say how much of each sale is kept; return on invested capital says how much the business earns on the money it needs to operate. Growth only creates value when that return is above the cost of the capital.
GrossOperatingNetFree cash flow
-50%0%50%100%150%
2020
2021Operating 1.5%Net -6.7%Free cash flow 4.0%
2022Operating 101.3%Net 67.5%Free cash flow 17.7%
2023Operating -10.6%Net -9.3%Free cash flow 4.6%
2024Operating 15.5%Net 8.7%Free cash flow 0.4%
2025Operating 5.5%Net -3.5%Free cash flow 3.6%
202020212022202320242025
Return on invested capital
Return on invested capitalCost of capital today · 9.1%
-100%0%100%200%300%400%
2020
2021
2022Return on invested capital 379.9%
2023Return on invested capital -11.6%
2024Return on invested capital 9.5%
2025Return on invested capital 4.9%
202020212022202320242025
Economic profit
Economic profit
-1B01B2B3B
2020
2021
2022Economic profit 2.9B
2023Economic profit -925.6M
2024Economic profit 14.7M
2025Economic profit -206.3M
202020212022202320242025
(return on capital − cost of capital) × capital invested: the profit left after paying for the money used. Today's cost of capital is applied to every year, since a past one cannot be rebuilt honestly.
Return on equity
-25.3%
Return on assets
-1.9%
Asset turnover
0.53×
Overheads (SG&A)
25.4% of revenue
Is the profit cash, and where does the cash go?
Net income is an accounting opinion; free cash flow is what was left in the bank after investing. Stock-based pay does not leave the bank — shareholders pay it through dilution — so it is shown taken off as well.
Net incomeFree cash flowAfter stock-based pay
-1B01B2B3B
2020
2021Net income -414.0MFree cash flow 247.0MAfter stock-based pay 187.0M
2022Net income 2.7BFree cash flow 694.0MAfter stock-based pay 644.0M
2023Net income -291.0MFree cash flow 143.0MAfter stock-based pay 98.0M
2024Net income 310.0MFree cash flow 14.0MAfter stock-based pay -37.0M
2025Net income -112.0MFree cash flow 115.0MAfter stock-based pay 64.0M
202020212022202320242025
Where 6 years of operating cash went, 2020–2025
1.6B generated by the business. Each band is its share of that total.
Reinvested in the business 26%435.0M
Acquisitions 2%29.0M
Dividends 20%330.0M
Share buybacks 20%334.0M
Kept, or used to pay down debt 32%520.0M
Over the same years it paid 257.0M in stock. 77.0M of the buybacks went beyond offsetting that dilution.
Per share
Earnings per shareFree cash flow per shareDividend per share
-$20$0$20$40
2020
2021Earnings per share $-5.52Free cash flow per share $3.29Dividend per share $0.80
2022Earnings per share $37.53Free cash flow per share $9.82Dividend per share $0.99
2023Earnings per share $-4.47Free cash flow per share $2.20Dividend per share $1.00
2024Earnings per share $4.69Free cash flow per share $0.21Dividend per share $1.00
2025Earnings per share $-1.62Free cash flow per share $1.66Dividend per share $1.00
202020212022202320242025
Shares outstanding
Diluted shares
65.0M67.5M70.0M72.5M75.0M77.5M
2020
2021Diluted shares 75.0M
2022Diluted shares 70.7M
2023Diluted shares 65.1M
2024Diluted shares 66.1M
2025Diluted shares 69.1M
202020212022202320242025
Debt and liquidity
Debt is not bad in itself; debt the business cannot service in a bad year is. Net debt is debt minus cash, and below zero the company holds more cash than it owes.
Net debt
-2B02B4B
2020
2021
2022Net debt -849.0M
2023Net debt 3.5B
2024Net debt 3.4B
2025Net debt 3.5B
202020212022202320242025
Net debt ÷ EBITDA
8.3×
Interest coverage
0× operating income ÷ interest
Current ratio
2.42 current assets ÷ current liabilities
Cash conversion cycle
— collects in 79d
Three classic screens of the accounts
Each asks a different question of the same statements — is it improving, does it look like a company heading for distress, do the accounts resemble ones that were manipulated. None is a verdict; each shows what moves it.
Piotroski F-score
Is the business improving? Nine yes-or-no tests, this year against last.
2of 8 tests passed
✕ProfitableReturn on assets above zerofailed
✓Cash from operationsOperating cash flow above zeropassed
✕Profitability improvedReturn on assets higher than a year beforefailed
✓Profit backed by cashOperating cash flow above net income (low accruals)passed
✕Less long-term debtLong-term debt as a share of assets fellfailed
✕More liquidCurrent ratio higher than a year beforefailed
✕No new sharesShare count did not growfailed
–Better gross marginGross margin higher than a year before — not reportedno data
✕Sells more per assetAsset turnover higher than a year beforefailed
Where it misleads: it measures change, not level. An excellent business that stood still for a year scores low; a poor one recovering from a disaster scores high.
Altman Z''-score
Does the balance sheet look like those of companies that went bankrupt?
1.28grey zone
1.12.6
Working capital ÷ assets 0.17 × 6.56+1.10
Retained earnings ÷ assets -0.03 × 3.26-0.09
Operating income ÷ assets 0.03 × 6.72+0.20
Equity ÷ liabilities 0.08 × 1.05+0.08
Where it misleads: buybacks. A company that returns so much cash that its equity turns small or negative sinks the last two ratios without being anywhere near bankruptcy. Banks and insurers do not fit the model at all.
Beneish M-score
Do the accounts resemble those of companies that manipulated their earnings?
The accounts lack too many of the lines it needs.
Where the statements disagree
Cross-checks between the income statement, the balance sheet and the cash flow for the latest year, each with the benign reading and the worrying one.
Receivables are growing 8% against revenue growing -11%.
Benign
A shift towards larger customers on longer terms, or sales concentrated at the end of the period.
Worrying
Sales are being made on looser credit, or revenue has been booked that may never be collected.
Capital spending (74M) is well below depreciation (249M).
Benign
Mature assets, or a business that has become less capital-intensive.
Worrying
Under-investing: today's profit is being held up by consuming tomorrow's capacity.
The effective tax rate is -35.3%.
Benign
A favourable geographic mix, or legitimate tax credits.
Worrying
Not sustainable; projecting it forward inflates the valuation.
Net debt is 8.3 times EBITDA.
Benign
A stable sector with predictable cash flows and comfortable maturities.
Worrying
Little room if earnings fall; the maturity schedule is what to check.
What is it worth, under which assumptions?
A company is worth the cash it will generate, brought back to today. This model projects revenue with growth that fades over the years, applies a free cash flow margin, and discounts the result at the cost of capital. Every assumption says where it came from, and all of them can be changed.
Value per share, with these assumptions$-26.67discounted at 9.1% a year · 50% of it from after year 10
Type a share price on the left to ask the reverse questions: what growth, what margin or what discount rate that price implies.
What the value implies, in the usual multiples
At this model's value
Price ÷ earnings
—
Enterprise value ÷ EBITDA
3.9×
Enterprise value ÷ revenue
0.5×
Free cash flow yield
—
From cash flows to a value per share
10 years of cash flow, today826.5M
Everything after, today836.4M
The whole business1.7B
Minus net debt-3.5B
What belongs to shareholders-1.8B
Divided among 69.1M shares: <strong>$-26.67</strong> each.
The projection next to its history
Reported free cash flow after stock pay, then the model's. A projection that looks nothing like the past needs a reason.
ReportedProjected
-200M0200M400M600M800M
2020
2021Reported 187.0M
2022Reported 644.0M
2023Reported 98.0M
2024Reported -37.0M
2025Reported 64.0M
2026Projected 140.6M
2027Projected 134.7M
2028Projected 130.2M
2029Projected 127.0M
2030Projected 124.9M
2031Projected 123.8M
2032Projected 123.8M
2033Projected 124.9M
2034Projected 126.9M
2035Projected 130.1M
20202022202420262028203020322034
Year by year
2026
2027
2028
2029
2030
2031
2032
2033
2034
2035
Revenue
3.0B
2.9B
2.8B
2.7B
2.7B
2.7B
2.7B
2.7B
2.7B
2.8B
Growth
-5.0%
-4.2%
-3.3%
-2.5%
-1.7%
-0.8%
0.0%
0.8%
1.7%
2.5%
Cash margin
4.7%
4.7%
4.7%
4.7%
4.7%
4.7%
4.7%
4.7%
4.7%
4.7%
Free cash flow
140.6M
134.7M
130.2M
127.0M
124.9M
123.8M
123.8M
124.9M
126.9M
130.1M
Worth today
128.8M
113.1M
100.2M
89.5M
80.6M
73.2M
67.1M
62.0M
57.7M
54.2M
If the least-known inputs move
Value per share as two inputs change at a time. Neighbouring cells that differ a lot are the conclusion: the value depends on numbers nobody knows to a point.
The discount rate and growth forever
discount ↓ · forever →
1.5%
2.0%
2.5%
3.0%
3.5%
8.2%
-26
-24
-23
-21
-18
8.6%
-28
-26
-25
-23
-21
9.1%
-29
-28
-27
-25
-23
9.7%
-30
-29
-28
-27
-26
10.2%
-31
-31
-30
-29
-27
Year-one growth and the final margin
margin ↓ · growth →
-9.0%
-7.0%
-5.0%
-3.0%
-1.0%
3.7%
-33
-32
-30
-28
-26
4.2%
-32
-30
-28
-26
-24
4.7%
-30
-29
-27
-25
-22
5.1%
-29
-27
-25
-23
-20
5.6%
-28
-25
-23
-21
-18
All the inputs moving at once
5,000 valuations, each with growth, final margin, discount rate and growth forever drawn at random around the values on the left (spreads of 3.0%, 2.0%, 1.0% and 0.5%). Not a probability — the spreads are assumptions too — but an honest picture of how wide the answer is.
10th percentile$-36.79
Median$-26.70
90th percentile$-13.23
$-40.00$-20.00$0.00
Half of the simulations land between <b>$-32.32</b> and <b>$-20.20</b>; one in ten below $-36.79, one in ten above $-13.23.
Does the long run make sense?
5.4×The terminal value prices the business in year 10 at 5.4 times that year's EBITDA.
17%To grow 2.5% forever while reinvesting 14% of its after-tax operating profit, the business must earn 17% on the new capital — it has earned 96% on average over the last five years.
50%of the value comes from after year 10. The more of it, the more the answer depends on the part nobody can see.
Every Form 4 filed in the last twelve months, read line by line: 6 filings by 6 people. Open-market purchases and sales are counted apart from awards, option exercises and shares withheld for taxes.
Bought on the open market—none in the period
Sold on the open market$673,3526 sale(s) by 3 insider(s)
Under pre-arranged plans0%of the sales followed a 10b5-1 plan set months earlier
A Form 4 says what happened, when, how many shares and at what price. It does not say why: a sale can be diversification, a tax bill or a plan fixed months earlier, and an award is pay, not a purchase. Nothing here is a reason to buy or sell anything.
Which large funds report holding it
From the Form 13F of the 28 institutions followed on this site, as of the end of their last reported quarter. A 13F is filed up to 45 days later and shows only long positions in US-listed shares.
Accounts from the company's own SEC filings; lines some companies do not report are shown as a dash rather than estimated. The risk-free rate is the 10-year US Treasury yield. A DCF is a way of making assumptions explicit, not a forecast: it states what the company would be worth if the assumptions held. The scores are screens that point where to look, not verdicts. Nothing here is a recommendation to buy or sell.
