PTGX · Health care(pharmaceutical preparations) · 10 years of annual accounts filed with the SEC · latest fiscal year ended 2025-12-31
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Protagonist Therapeutics, Inc reported revenue of $46.0 million in fiscal 2025. On the accounting screens, it passes 4 of 7 Piotroski tests, its Altman Z'' of 13.41 is in the safe zone and its Beneish M-score is below the -1.78 line; 1 of the six cross-checks between its statements fires.
Revenue, fiscal 202546.0M
Operating margin-343.6%gross margin —
Return on invested capital—
Free cash flow after stock pay10.1M22.0% of revenue
Net debt ÷ EBITDA—net debt —
Piotroski F-score4/7tests of improvement passed
Is it growing?
Revenue and the operating income it turns into. Growth that does not reach operating income is growth bought with margin.
RevenueOperating income
-200M0200M400M600M
2016Operating income -32.7M
2017Revenue 20.1MOperating income -37.9M
2018Revenue 30.9MOperating income -42.3M
2019Revenue 231,000Operating income -80.5M
2020Revenue 28.6MOperating income -64.5M
2021Revenue 27.4MOperating income -125.8M
2022Revenue 26.6MOperating income -131.4M
2023Revenue 60.0MOperating income -93.7M
2024Revenue 434.4MOperating income 252.8M
2025Revenue 46.0MOperating income -158.1M
2016201720182019202020212022202320242025
Compound growth a year
3 yrs
5 yrs
9 yrs
Revenue
+20.1%
+10.0%
—
Shares
+9.0%
+13.1%
+16.0%
Falling shares are buybacks: each remaining share owns more of the company.
Does it earn more than its capital costs?
Margins say how much of each sale is kept; return on invested capital says how much the business earns on the money it needs to operate. Growth only creates value when that return is above the cost of the capital.
Needs a cost of capital, which comes from the valuation below.
Return on equity
-21.2%
Return on assets
-19.5%
Asset turnover
0.07×
Research & development
346.2% of revenue
Overheads (SG&A)
97.5% of revenue
Is the profit cash, and where does the cash go?
Net income is an accounting opinion; free cash flow is what was left in the bank after investing. Stock-based pay does not leave the bank — shareholders pay it through dilution — so it is shown taken off as well.
Net incomeFree cash flowAfter stock-based pay
-200M0200M400M
2016Net income -37.2MFree cash flow -30.3MAfter stock-based pay -32.4M
2017Net income -37.0MFree cash flow 3.2MAfter stock-based pay -1.0M
2018Net income -38.9MFree cash flow -50.4MAfter stock-based pay -57.4M
2019Net income -77.2MFree cash flow -42.5MAfter stock-based pay -50.8M
2020Net income -66.2MFree cash flow -73.0MAfter stock-based pay -80.9M
2021Net income -125.6MFree cash flow -109.0MAfter stock-based pay -125.4M
2022Net income -127.4MFree cash flow -108.9MAfter stock-based pay -133.1M
2023Net income -79.0MFree cash flow -70.8MAfter stock-based pay -100.1M
2024Net income 275.2MFree cash flow 182.8MAfter stock-based pay 145.2M
2025Net income -130.1MFree cash flow 56.1MAfter stock-based pay 10.1M
2016201720182019202020212022202320242025
Per share
Earnings per shareFree cash flow per shareDividend per share
-$4-$2$0$2$4$6
2016Earnings per share $-2.22Free cash flow per share $-1.81
2017Earnings per share $-1.75Free cash flow per share $0.15
2018Earnings per share $-1.68Free cash flow per share $-2.18
2019Earnings per share $-2.84Free cash flow per share $-1.56
2020Earnings per share $-1.92Free cash flow per share $-2.12
2021Earnings per share $-2.71Free cash flow per share $-2.35
2022Earnings per share $-2.60Free cash flow per share $-2.22
2023Earnings per share $-1.39Free cash flow per share $-1.25
2024Earnings per share $4.23Free cash flow per share $2.81
2025Earnings per share $-2.05Free cash flow per share $0.88
2016201720182019202020212022202320242025
Shares outstanding
Diluted shares
020M40M60M80M
2016Diluted shares 16.7M
2017Diluted shares 21.1M
2018Diluted shares 23.2M
2019Diluted shares 27.2M
2020Diluted shares 34.4M
2021Diluted shares 46.3M
2022Diluted shares 49.0M
2023Diluted shares 56.8M
2024Diluted shares 65.1M
2025Diluted shares 63.6M
2016201720182019202020212022202320242025
Debt and liquidity
Debt is not bad in itself; debt the business cannot service in a bad year is. Net debt is debt minus cash, and below zero the company holds more cash than it owes.
Net debt
-30M-20M-10M0
2016
2017
2018
2019Net debt -23.2M
2020
2021
2022
2023
2024
2025
2016201720182019202020212022202320242025
Net debt ÷ EBITDA
—
Interest coverage
— operating income ÷ interest
Current ratio
12.71 current assets ÷ current liabilities
Cash conversion cycle
—
Three classic screens of the accounts
Each asks a different question of the same statements — is it improving, does it look like a company heading for distress, do the accounts resemble ones that were manipulated. None is a verdict; each shows what moves it.
Piotroski F-score
Is the business improving? Nine yes-or-no tests, this year against last.
4of 7 tests passed
✕ProfitableReturn on assets above zerofailed
✓Cash from operationsOperating cash flow above zeropassed
✕Profitability improvedReturn on assets higher than a year beforefailed
✓Profit backed by cashOperating cash flow above net income (low accruals)passed
–Less long-term debtLong-term debt as a share of assets fell — not reportedno data
✓More liquidCurrent ratio higher than a year beforepassed
✓No new sharesShare count did not growpassed
–Better gross marginGross margin higher than a year before — not reportedno data
✕Sells more per assetAsset turnover higher than a year beforefailed
Where it misleads: it measures change, not level. An excellent business that stood still for a year scores low; a poor one recovering from a disaster scores high.
Altman Z''-score
Does the balance sheet look like those of companies that went bankrupt?
13.41safe zone
1.12.6
Working capital ÷ assets 0.80 × 6.56+5.22
Retained earnings ÷ assets -0.70 × 3.26-2.30
Operating income ÷ assets -0.24 × 6.72-1.59
Equity ÷ liabilities 11.49 × 1.05+12.07
Where it misleads: buybacks. A company that returns so much cash that its equity turns small or negative sinks the last two ratios without being anywhere near bankruptcy. Banks and insurers do not fit the model at all.
Beneish M-score
Do the accounts resemble those of companies that manipulated their earnings?
-6.28below the -1.78 line
-1.78
Receivables vs sales 1.00 (not reported, set to 1)+0.92
Gross margin slipping 1.00 (not reported, set to 1)+0.53
Soft assets 0.65+0.26
Sales growth 0.11+0.09
Slower depreciation 0.83+0.09
Overheads vs sales 9.74-1.68
Profit not in cash -0.28-1.32
Leverage rising 1.07-0.35
Where it misleads: fast growth and acquisitions. Sales growth carries a heavy weight, so a company growing 50% a year scores like a suspect without having done anything. It is a screen from a 1999 study, not an accusation.
Where the statements disagree
Cross-checks between the income statement, the balance sheet and the cash flow for the latest year, each with the benign reading and the worrying one.
The effective tax rate is -0.6%.
Benign
A favourable geographic mix, or legitimate tax credits.
Worrying
Not sustainable; projecting it forward inflates the valuation.
What is it worth, under which assumptions?
A company is worth the cash it will generate, brought back to today. This model projects revenue with growth that fades over the years, applies a free cash flow margin, and discounts the result at the cost of capital. Every assumption says where it came from, and all of them can be changed.
With a free cash flow margin at or below zero in year ten, the business never generates cash for its owners and a DCF says nothing useful. Set a positive margin for year ten to see what it would take.
What it has filed lately
The last twelve months at the SEC, most important first: annual and quarterly reports, events, large holders and insiders.
Every Form 4 filed in the last twelve months, read line by line: 6 filings by 2 people. Open-market purchases and sales are counted apart from awards, option exercises and shares withheld for taxes.
Bought on the open market—none in the period
Sold on the open market$36.1M8 sale(s) by 2 insider(s)
Under pre-arranged plans100%of the sales followed a 10b5-1 plan set months earlier
A Form 4 says what happened, when, how many shares and at what price. It does not say why: a sale can be diversification, a tax bill or a plan fixed months earlier, and an award is pay, not a purchase. Nothing here is a reason to buy or sell anything.
Which large funds report holding it
From the Form 13F of the 28 institutions followed on this site, as of the end of their last reported quarter. A 13F is filed up to 45 days later and shows only long positions in US-listed shares.
Accounts from the company's own SEC filings; lines some companies do not report are shown as a dash rather than estimated. The risk-free rate is the 10-year US Treasury yield. A DCF is a way of making assumptions explicit, not a forecast: it states what the company would be worth if the assumptions held. The scores are screens that point where to look, not verdicts. Nothing here is a recommendation to buy or sell.
