PTC · Technology(services-prepackaged software) · 10 years of annual accounts filed with the SEC · latest fiscal year ended 2025-09-30
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PTC Inc. reported revenue of $2.7 billion in fiscal 2025, after growing 10.2% a year over the previous 9 years. Its operating margin widened from -3.2% in 2016 to 35.9%, and it earned 15.6% on its invested capital in the latest year. Of the $4.1 billion its operations generated over 10 years, 64.9% went to acquisitions and 41.8% to buybacks; the share count rose 5.4%. On the accounting screens, it passes 8 of 9 Piotroski tests, its Altman Z'' of 3.61 is in the safe zone and its Beneish M-score is below the -1.78 line; 1 of the six cross-checks between its statements fires.
Revenue, fiscal 20252.7B+10.2% a year over 9 years
Operating margin35.9%gross margin 83.8%
Return on invested capital15.6%10.2% on average over 5 years
Free cash flow after stock pay640.5M23.4% of revenue
Net debt ÷ EBITDA0.9×net debt 1.0B
Piotroski F-score8/9tests of improvement passed
Is it growing?
Revenue and the operating income it turns into. Growth that does not reach operating income is growth bought with margin.
RevenueOperating income
-1.0B01.0B2.0B3.0B
2016Revenue 1.1BOperating income -37.0M
2017Revenue 1.2BOperating income 41.8M
2018Revenue 1.2BOperating income 72.6M
2019Revenue 1.3BOperating income 63.0M
2020Revenue 1.5BOperating income 210.9M
2021Revenue 1.8BOperating income 380.7M
2022Revenue 1.9BOperating income 447.4M
2023Revenue 2.1BOperating income 458.5M
2024Revenue 2.3BOperating income 588.1M
2025Revenue 2.7BOperating income 982.4M
2016201720182019202020212022202320242025
Compound growth a year
3 yrs
5 yrs
9 yrs
Revenue
+12.3%
+13.4%
+10.2%
Operating income
+30.0%
+36.0%
—
Net income
+32.8%
+41.2%
—
Earnings per share
+31.9%
+40.1%
—
Free cash flow per share
+26.3%
+31.0%
+20.0%
Shares
+0.7%
+0.8%
+0.6%
Falling shares are buybacks: each remaining share owns more of the company.
Does it earn more than its capital costs?
Margins say how much of each sale is kept; return on invested capital says how much the business earns on the money it needs to operate. Growth only creates value when that return is above the cost of the capital.
Return on invested capitalCost of capital today · 9.0%
-10.0%0.0%10.0%20.0%
2016
2017
2018Return on invested capital 0.9%
2019Return on invested capital -4.6%
2020Return on invested capital 8.4%
2021Return on invested capital 8.6%
2022Return on invested capital 9.7%
2023Return on invested capital 7.7%
2024Return on invested capital 9.5%
2025Return on invested capital 15.6%
2016201720182019202020212022202320242025
Economic profit
Economic profit
-400.0M-200.0M0200.0M400.0M
2016
2017
2018Economic profit -122.6M
2019Economic profit -253.1M
2020Economic profit -14.6M
2021Economic profit -14.0M
2022Economic profit 25.6M
2023Economic profit -53.7M
2024Economic profit 26.8M
2025Economic profit 333.1M
2016201720182019202020212022202320242025
(return on capital − cost of capital) × capital invested: the profit left after paying for the money used. Today's cost of capital is applied to every year, since a past one cannot be rebuilt honestly.
Return on equity
19.2%
Return on assets
11.1%
Asset turnover
0.41×
Research & development
16.7% of revenue
Overheads (SG&A)
8.3% of revenue
Is the profit cash, and where does the cash go?
Net income is an accounting opinion; free cash flow is what was left in the bank after investing. Stock-based pay does not leave the bank — shareholders pay it through dilution — so it is shown taken off as well.
Net incomeFree cash flowAfter stock-based pay
-250.0M0250.0M500.0M750.0M1.0B
2016Net income -54.5MFree cash flow 157.1MAfter stock-based pay 91.1M
2017Net income 6.2MFree cash flow 109.8MAfter stock-based pay 33.1M
2018Net income 52.0MFree cash flow 211.7MAfter stock-based pay 128.8M
2019Net income -27.5MFree cash flow 220.7MAfter stock-based pay 134.3M
2020Net income 130.7MFree cash flow 213.6MAfter stock-based pay 98.5M
2021Net income 476.9MFree cash flow 344.1MAfter stock-based pay 166.8M
2022Net income 313.1MFree cash flow 415.8MAfter stock-based pay 241.0M
2023Net income 245.5MFree cash flow 587.0MAfter stock-based pay 380.6M
2024Net income 376.3MFree cash flow 735.6MAfter stock-based pay 512.1M
2025Net income 734.0MFree cash flow 856.7MAfter stock-based pay 640.5M
2016201720182019202020212022202320242025
Where 10 years of operating cash went, 2016–2025
4.1B generated by the business. Each band is its share of that total.
Reinvested in the business 6%265.7M
Acquisitions 65%2.7B
Dividends 0%0
Share buybacks 42%1.7B
More than it generated: funded with cash or new debt -13%-542.0M
Over the same years it paid 1.4B in stock. The share count rose 5.4%. 295.5M of the buybacks went beyond offsetting that dilution.
Per share
Earnings per shareFree cash flow per shareDividend per share
$-2.00$0.00$2.00$4.00$6.00$8.00
2016Earnings per share $-0.48Free cash flow per share $1.37
2017Earnings per share $0.05Free cash flow per share $0.94
2018Earnings per share $0.44Free cash flow per share $1.79
2019Earnings per share $-0.23Free cash flow per share $1.88
2020Earnings per share $1.12Free cash flow per share $1.84
2021Earnings per share $4.03Free cash flow per share $2.91
2022Earnings per share $2.65Free cash flow per share $3.52
2023Earnings per share $2.06Free cash flow per share $4.92
2024Earnings per share $3.12Free cash flow per share $6.09
2025Earnings per share $6.08Free cash flow per share $7.09
2016201720182019202020212022202320242025
Shares outstanding
Diluted shares
114.0M116.0M118.0M120.0M122.0M
2016Diluted shares 114.6M
2017Diluted shares 117.4M
2018Diluted shares 118.2M
2019Diluted shares 117.7M
2020Diluted shares 116.3M
2021Diluted shares 118.4M
2022Diluted shares 118.2M
2023Diluted shares 119.3M
2024Diluted shares 120.7M
2025Diluted shares 120.8M
2016201720182019202020212022202320242025
How strong is the balance sheet?
Debt is not bad in itself; debt the business cannot service in a bad year is. Net debt is debt minus cash, and below zero the company holds more cash than it owes.
Net debt
0500.0M1.0B1.5B
2016
2017
2018Net debt 383.3M
2019Net debt 399.6M
2020Net debt 729.9M
2021Net debt 1.1B
2022Net debt 1.1B
2023Net debt 1.4B
2024Net debt 1.5B
2025Net debt 1.0B
2016201720182019202020212022202320242025
Net debt ÷ EBITDA
0.9×
Interest coverage
13× operating income ÷ interest
Current ratio
1.12 current assets ÷ current liabilities
Cash conversion cycle
— collects in 133d
Three classic screens of the accounts
Each asks a different question of the same statements — is it improving, does it look like a company heading for distress, do the accounts resemble ones that were manipulated. None is a verdict; each shows what moves it.
Piotroski F-score
Is the business improving? Nine yes-or-no tests, this year against last.
8of 9 tests passed
✓ProfitableReturn on assets above zeropassed
✓Cash from operationsOperating cash flow above zeropassed
✓Profitability improvedReturn on assets higher than a year beforepassed
✓Profit backed by cashOperating cash flow above net income (low accruals)passed
✓Less long-term debtLong-term debt as a share of assets fellpassed
✓More liquidCurrent ratio higher than a year beforepassed
✕No new sharesShare count did not growfailed
✓Better gross marginGross margin higher than a year beforepassed
✓Sells more per assetAsset turnover higher than a year beforepassed
Where it misleads: it measures change, not level. An excellent business that stood still for a year scores low; a poor one recovering from a disaster scores high.
Altman Z''-score
Does the balance sheet look like those of companies that went bankrupt?
3.61safe zone
1.12.6
Working capital ÷ assets 0.02 × 6.56+0.14
Retained earnings ÷ assets 0.31 × 3.26+1.03
Operating income ÷ assets 0.15 × 6.72+1.00
Equity ÷ liabilities 1.37 × 1.05+1.44
Where it misleads: buybacks. A company that returns so much cash that its equity turns small or negative sinks the last two ratios without being anywhere near bankruptcy. Banks and insurers do not fit the model at all.
Beneish M-score
Do the accounts resemble those of companies that manipulated their earnings?
-2.36below the -1.78 line
-1.78
Receivables vs sales 0.97+0.90
Gross margin slipping 0.96+0.51
Soft assets 1.00+0.40
Sales growth 1.19+1.06
Slower depreciation 0.94+0.11
Overheads vs sales 0.82-0.14
Profit not in cash -0.02-0.09
Leverage rising 0.80-0.26
Where it misleads: fast growth and acquisitions. Sales growth carries a heavy weight, so a company growing 50% a year scores like a suspect without having done anything. It is a screen from a 1999 study, not an accusation.
Where the statements disagree
Cross-checks between the income statement, the balance sheet and the cash flow for the latest year, each with the benign reading and the worrying one.
Capital spending (11M) is well below depreciation (103M).
Benign
Mature assets, or a business that has become less capital-intensive.
Worrying
Under-investing: today's profit is being held up by consuming tomorrow's capacity.
What is it worth, under which assumptions?
A company is worth the cash it will generate, brought back to today. This model projects revenue with growth that fades over the years, applies a free cash flow margin, and discounts the result at the cost of capital. Every assumption says where it came from, and all of them can be changed.
Value per share, with these assumptions$56.47discounted at 9.0% a year · 58% of it from after year 10
Type a share price on the left to ask the reverse questions: what growth, what margin or what discount rate that price implies.
What the value implies, in the usual multiples
At this model's value
Price ÷ earnings
9.3×
Enterprise value ÷ EBITDA
7.2×
Enterprise value ÷ revenue
2.9×
Free cash flow yield
9.4%
From cash flows to a value per share
10 years of cash flow, today3.3B
Everything after, today4.5B
The whole business7.8B
Minus net debt-1.0B
What belongs to shareholders6.8B
Divided among 120.8M shares: <strong>$56.47</strong> each.
The projection next to its history
Reported free cash flow after stock pay, then the model's. A projection that looks nothing like the past needs a reason.
ReportedProjected
0200.0M400.0M600.0M800.0M
2016Reported 91.1M
2017Reported 33.1M
2018Reported 128.8M
2019Reported 134.3M
2020Reported 98.5M
2021Reported 166.8M
2022Reported 241.0M
2023Reported 380.6M
2024Reported 512.1M
2025Reported 640.5M
2026Projected 357.7M
2027Projected 401.6M
2028Projected 446.0M
2029Projected 489.9M
2030Projected 532.1M
2031Projected 571.4M
2032Projected 606.6M
2033Projected 636.6M
2034Projected 660.3M
2035Projected 676.8M
2016201820202022202420262028203020322034
Year by year
2026
2027
2028
2029
2030
2031
2032
2033
2034
2035
Revenue
3.1B
3.5B
3.9B
4.3B
4.6B
5.0B
5.3B
5.5B
5.7B
5.9B
Growth
13.5%
12.3%
11.1%
9.8%
8.6%
7.4%
6.2%
4.9%
3.7%
2.5%
Cash margin
11.5%
11.5%
11.5%
11.5%
11.5%
11.5%
11.5%
11.5%
11.5%
11.5%
Free cash flow
357.7M
401.6M
446.0M
489.9M
532.1M
571.4M
606.6M
636.6M
660.3M
676.8M
Worth today
328.3M
338.2M
344.7M
347.5M
346.3M
341.3M
332.5M
320.2M
304.8M
286.7M
If the least-known inputs move
Value per share as two inputs change at a time. Neighbouring cells that differ a lot are the conclusion: the value depends on numbers nobody knows to a point.
The discount rate and growth forever
discount ↓ · forever →
1.5%
2.0%
2.5%
3.0%
3.5%
8.0%
59
63
69
76
84
8.5%
54
58
62
68
74
9.0%
49
53
56
61
66
9.5%
45
48
52
55
60
10.0%
42
44
47
51
54
Year-one growth and the final margin
margin ↓ · growth →
9.5%
11.5%
13.5%
15.5%
17.5%
9.2%
38
42
46
50
55
10.4%
42
47
51
56
61
11.5%
47
51
56
62
68
12.7%
51
56
62
68
74
13.8%
56
61
67
73
80
All the inputs moving at once
5,000 valuations, each with growth, final margin, discount rate and growth forever drawn at random around the values on the left (spreads of 3.0%, 2.0%, 1.0% and 0.5%). Not a probability — the spreads are assumptions too — but an honest picture of how wide the answer is.
10th percentile$38.97
Median$56.52
90th percentile$83.08
$50.00$75.00$100.00
Half of the simulations land between <b>$46.52</b> and <b>$68.89</b>; one in ten below $38.97, one in ten above $83.08.
Does the long run make sense?
4.6×The terminal value prices the business in year 10 at 4.6 times that year's EBITDA.
4%To grow 2.5% forever while reinvesting 60% of its after-tax operating profit, the business must earn 4% on the new capital — it has earned 10% on average over the last five years.
58%of the value comes from after year 10. The more of it, the more the answer depends on the part nobody can see.
Every Form 4 filed in the last twelve months, read line by line: 6 filings by 5 people. Open-market purchases and sales are counted apart from awards, option exercises and shares withheld for taxes.
Bought on the open market—none in the period
Sold on the open market$225,1302 sale(s) by 2 insider(s)
Under pre-arranged plans50%of the sales followed a 10b5-1 plan set months earlier
A Form 4 says what happened, when, how many shares and at what price. It does not say why: a sale can be diversification, a tax bill or a plan fixed months earlier, and an award is pay, not a purchase. Nothing here is a reason to buy or sell anything.
Which large funds report holding it
From the Form 13F of the 28 institutions followed on this site, as of the end of their last reported quarter. A 13F is filed up to 45 days later and shows only long positions in US-listed shares.
Accounts from the company's own SEC filings; lines some companies do not report are shown as a dash rather than estimated. The risk-free rate is the 10-year US Treasury yield. A DCF is a way of making assumptions explicit, not a forecast: it states what the company would be worth if the assumptions held. The scores are screens that point where to look, not verdicts. Nothing here is a recommendation to buy or sell.