CRM · Technology(services-prepackaged software) · 10 years of annual accounts filed with the SEC · latest fiscal year ended 2026-01-31
Salesforce, Inc. reported revenue of $41.5 billion in fiscal 2026, after growing 19.4% a year over the previous 9 years. Its operating margin widened from 2.6% in 2017 to 20.1%, and it earned 8.9% on its invested capital in the latest year. Of the $68.9 billion its operations generated over 10 years, 54.3% went to acquisitions and 46.5% to buybacks; the share count rose 36.6%. On the accounting screens, it passes 7 of 9 Piotroski tests, its Altman Z'' of 1.79 is in the grey zone and its Beneish M-score is below the -1.78 line; 1 of the six cross-checks between its statements fires.
Revenue, fiscal 202641.5B+19.4% a year over 9 years
Operating margin20.1%gross margin 77.7%
Return on invested capital8.9%5.0% on average over 5 years
Free cash flow after stock pay10.9B26.2% of revenue
Net debt ÷ EBITDA0.7×net debt 7.1B
Piotroski F-score7/9tests of improvement passed
Is it growing?
Revenue and the operating income it turns into. Growth that does not reach operating income is growth bought with margin.
RevenueOperating income
020.0B40.0B60.0B
2017Revenue 8.4BOperating income 218.0M
2018Revenue 10.5BOperating income 454.0M
2019Revenue 13.3BOperating income 535.0M
2020Revenue 17.1BOperating income 297.0M
2021Revenue 21.3BOperating income 455.0M
2022Revenue 26.5BOperating income 548.0M
2023Revenue 31.4BOperating income 1.0B
2024Revenue 34.9BOperating income 5.0B
2025Revenue 37.9BOperating income 7.2B
2026Revenue 41.5BOperating income 8.3B
2017201820192020202120222023202420252026
Compound growth a year
3 yrs
5 yrs
9 yrs
Revenue
+9.8%
+14.3%
+19.4%
Operating income
+100.7%
+78.9%
+49.9%
Net income
+229.7%
+12.9%
+41.7%
Earnings per share
+234.4%
+12.2%
+36.9%
Free cash flow per share
+33.5%
+27.9%
+22.5%
Shares
-1.4%
+0.6%
+3.5%
Falling shares are buybacks: each remaining share owns more of the company.
Does it earn more than its capital costs?
Margins say how much of each sale is kept; return on invested capital says how much the business earns on the money it needs to operate. Growth only creates value when that return is above the cost of the capital.
Return on invested capitalCost of capital today · 9.0%
0.0%2.5%5.0%7.5%10.0%
2017Return on invested capital 0.4%
2018Return on invested capital 3.2%
2019Return on invested capital 2.5%
2020Return on invested capital 0.1%
2021Return on invested capital 0.4%
2022Return on invested capital 0.8%
2023Return on invested capital 0.5%
2024Return on invested capital 6.1%
2025Return on invested capital 8.6%
2026Return on invested capital 8.9%
2017201820192020202120222023202420252026
Economic profit
Economic profit
-6.0B-4.0B-2.0B0
2017Economic profit -876.6M
2018Economic profit -696.9M
2019Economic profit -1.2B
2020Economic profit -3.2B
2021Economic profit -3.8B
2022Economic profit -5.7B
2023Economic profit -5.9B
2024Economic profit -2.0B
2025Economic profit -246.7M
2026Economic profit -80.9M
2017201820192020202120222023202420252026
(return on capital − cost of capital) × capital invested: the profit left after paying for the money used. Today's cost of capital is applied to every year, since a past one cannot be rebuilt honestly.
Return on equity
12.6%
Return on assets
6.6%
Asset turnover
0.37×
Research & development
14.4% of revenue
Overheads (SG&A)
7.2% of revenue
Is the profit cash, and where does the cash go?
Net income is an accounting opinion; free cash flow is what was left in the bank after investing. Stock-based pay does not leave the bank — shareholders pay it through dilution — so it is shown taken off as well.
Net incomeFree cash flowAfter stock-based pay
05.0B10.0B15.0B
2017Net income 323.0MFree cash flow 1.7BAfter stock-based pay 878.0M
2018Net income 360.0MFree cash flow 2.2BAfter stock-based pay 1.2B
2019Net income 1.1BFree cash flow 2.8BAfter stock-based pay 1.5B
2020Net income 126.0MFree cash flow 3.7BAfter stock-based pay 1.9B
2021Net income 4.1BFree cash flow 4.1BAfter stock-based pay 1.9B
2022Net income 1.4BFree cash flow 5.3BAfter stock-based pay 2.5B
2023Net income 208.0MFree cash flow 6.3BAfter stock-based pay 3.0B
2024Net income 4.1BFree cash flow 9.5BAfter stock-based pay 6.7B
2025Net income 6.2BFree cash flow 12.4BAfter stock-based pay 9.3B
2026Net income 7.5BFree cash flow 14.4BAfter stock-based pay 10.9B
2017201820192020202120222023202420252026
Where 10 years of operating cash went, 2017–2026
68.9B generated by the business. Each band is its share of that total.
Reinvested in the business 9%6.4B
Acquisitions 54%37.4B
Dividends 5%3.1B
Share buybacks 47%32.0B
More than it generated: funded with cash or new debt -15%-10.1B
Over the same years it paid 22.6B in stock. The share count rose 36.6%. 9.4B of the buybacks went beyond offsetting that dilution.
Per share
Earnings per shareFree cash flow per shareDividend per share
$0.00$5.00$10.00$15.00$20.00
2017Earnings per share $0.46Free cash flow per share $2.43
2018Earnings per share $0.49Free cash flow per share $3.00
2019Earnings per share $1.43Free cash flow per share $3.62
2020Earnings per share $0.15Free cash flow per share $4.34
2021Earnings per share $4.38Free cash flow per share $4.40
2022Earnings per share $1.48Free cash flow per share $5.42
2023Earnings per share $0.21Free cash flow per share $6.33Dividend per share $0.00
2024Earnings per share $4.20Free cash flow per share $9.65Dividend per share $0.00
2025Earnings per share $6.36Free cash flow per share $12.77Dividend per share $1.58
2026Earnings per share $7.80Free cash flow per share $15.06Dividend per share $1.66
2017201820192020202120222023202420252026
Shares outstanding
Diluted shares
700.0M800.0M900.0M1.0B
2017Diluted shares 700.0M
2018Diluted shares 735.0M
2019Diluted shares 775.0M
2020Diluted shares 850.0M
2021Diluted shares 930.0M
2022Diluted shares 974.0M
2023Diluted shares 997.0M
2024Diluted shares 984.0M
2025Diluted shares 974.0M
2026Diluted shares 956.0M
2017201820192020202120222023202420252026
How strong is the balance sheet?
Debt is not bad in itself; debt the business cannot service in a bad year is. Net debt is debt minus cash, and below zero the company holds more cash than it owes.
Net debt
-5.0B05.0B10.0B
2017Net debt 401.4M
2018Net debt -823.0M
2019Net debt 507.0M
2020Net debt -1.5B
2021Net debt -3.5B
2022Net debt 5.1B
2023Net debt 3.6B
2024Net debt 954.0M
2025Net debt -415.0M
2026Net debt 7.1B
2017201820192020202120222023202420252026
Net debt ÷ EBITDA
0.7×
Interest coverage
26× operating income ÷ interest
Current ratio
0.76 current assets ÷ current liabilities
Cash conversion cycle
— collects in 126d
Three classic screens of the accounts
Each asks a different question of the same statements — is it improving, does it look like a company heading for distress, do the accounts resemble ones that were manipulated. None is a verdict; each shows what moves it.
Piotroski F-score
Is the business improving? Nine yes-or-no tests, this year against last.
7of 9 tests passed
✓ProfitableReturn on assets above zeropassed
✓Cash from operationsOperating cash flow above zeropassed
✓Profitability improvedReturn on assets higher than a year beforepassed
✓Profit backed by cashOperating cash flow above net income (low accruals)passed
✕Less long-term debtLong-term debt as a share of assets fellfailed
✕More liquidCurrent ratio higher than a year beforefailed
✓No new sharesShare count did not growpassed
✓Better gross marginGross margin higher than a year beforepassed
✓Sells more per assetAsset turnover higher than a year beforepassed
Where it misleads: it measures change, not level. An excellent business that stood still for a year scores low; a poor one recovering from a disaster scores high.
Altman Z''-score
Does the balance sheet look like those of companies that went bankrupt?
1.79grey zone
1.12.6
Working capital ÷ assets -0.08 × 6.56-0.52
Retained earnings ÷ assets 0.20 × 3.26+0.65
Operating income ÷ assets 0.07 × 6.72+0.50
Equity ÷ liabilities 1.11 × 1.05+1.17
Where it misleads: buybacks. A company that returns so much cash that its equity turns small or negative sinks the last two ratios without being anywhere near bankruptcy. Banks and insurers do not fit the model at all.
Beneish M-score
Do the accounts resemble those of companies that manipulated their earnings?
-2.68below the -1.78 line
-1.78
Receivables vs sales 1.10+1.01
Gross margin slipping 0.99+0.52
Soft assets 1.00 (not reported, set to 1)+0.40
Sales growth 1.10+0.98
Slower depreciation 1.00 (not reported, set to 1)+0.12
Overheads vs sales 0.97-0.17
Profit not in cash -0.07-0.31
Leverage rising 1.20-0.39
Where it misleads: fast growth and acquisitions. Sales growth carries a heavy weight, so a company growing 50% a year scores like a suspect without having done anything. It is a screen from a 1999 study, not an accusation.
Where the statements disagree
Cross-checks between the income statement, the balance sheet and the cash flow for the latest year, each with the benign reading and the worrying one.
Capital spending (594M) is well below depreciation (1,200M).
Benign
Mature assets, or a business that has become less capital-intensive.
Worrying
Under-investing: today's profit is being held up by consuming tomorrow's capacity.
What is it worth, under which assumptions?
A company is worth the cash it will generate, brought back to today. This model projects revenue with growth that fades over the years, applies a free cash flow margin, and discounts the result at the cost of capital. Every assumption says where it came from, and all of them can be changed.
Value per share, with these assumptions$41.30discounted at 9.0% a year · 58% of it from after year 10
Type a share price on the left to ask the reverse questions: what growth, what margin or what discount rate that price implies.
What the value implies, in the usual multiples
At this model's value
Price ÷ earnings
5.3×
Enterprise value ÷ EBITDA
4.9×
Enterprise value ÷ revenue
1.1×
Free cash flow yield
27.6%
From cash flows to a value per share
10 years of cash flow, today19.5B
Everything after, today27.1B
The whole business46.6B
Minus net debt-7.1B
What belongs to shareholders39.5B
Divided among 956.0M shares: <strong>$41.30</strong> each.
The projection next to its history
Reported free cash flow after stock pay, then the model's. A projection that looks nothing like the past needs a reason.
ReportedProjected
05.0B10.0B15.0B
2017Reported 878.0M
2018Reported 1.2B
2019Reported 1.5B
2020Reported 1.9B
2021Reported 1.9B
2022Reported 2.5B
2023Reported 3.0B
2024Reported 6.7B
2025Reported 9.3B
2026Reported 10.9B
2027Projected 2.1B
2028Projected 2.3B
2029Projected 2.6B
2030Projected 2.9B
2031Projected 3.2B
2032Projected 3.4B
2033Projected 3.6B
2034Projected 3.8B
2035Projected 4.0B
2036Projected 4.1B
2017201920212023202520272029203120332035
Year by year
2027
2028
2029
2030
2031
2032
2033
2034
2035
2036
Revenue
47.5B
53.8B
60.2B
66.5B
72.6B
78.3B
83.4B
87.7B
91.0B
93.3B
Growth
14.5%
13.2%
11.8%
10.5%
9.2%
7.8%
6.5%
5.2%
3.8%
2.5%
Cash margin
4.3%
4.3%
4.3%
4.3%
4.3%
4.3%
4.3%
4.3%
4.3%
4.3%
Free cash flow
2.1B
2.3B
2.6B
2.9B
3.2B
3.4B
3.6B
3.8B
4.0B
4.1B
Worth today
1.9B
2.0B
2.0B
2.0B
2.1B
2.0B
2.0B
1.9B
1.8B
1.7B
If the least-known inputs move
Value per share as two inputs change at a time. Neighbouring cells that differ a lot are the conclusion: the value depends on numbers nobody knows to a point.
The discount rate and growth forever
discount ↓ · forever →
1.5%
2.0%
2.5%
3.0%
3.5%
8.0%
43
47
51
56
62
8.5%
39
42
46
50
55
9.0%
36
38
41
45
49
9.5%
33
35
38
40
44
10.0%
30
32
34
37
40
Year-one growth and the final margin
margin ↓ · growth →
10.5%
12.5%
14.5%
16.5%
18.5%
3.5%
27
30
33
37
40
3.9%
31
34
37
41
45
4.3%
34
38
41
45
50
4.8%
37
41
45
50
54
5.2%
41
45
49
54
59
All the inputs moving at once
5,000 valuations, each with growth, final margin, discount rate and growth forever drawn at random around the values on the left (spreads of 3.0%, 2.0%, 1.0% and 0.5%). Not a probability — the spreads are assumptions too — but an honest picture of how wide the answer is.
10th percentile$17.50
Median$41.18
90th percentile$72.74
$50.00$100.00
Half of the simulations land between <b>$28.19</b> and <b>$56.13</b>; one in ten below $17.50, one in ten above $72.74.
Does the long run make sense?
3.0×The terminal value prices the business in year 10 at 3.0 times that year's EBITDA.
3%To grow 2.5% forever while reinvesting 72% of its after-tax operating profit, the business must earn 3% on the new capital — it has earned 5% on average over the last five years.
58%of the value comes from after year 10. The more of it, the more the answer depends on the part nobody can see.
Accounts from the company's own SEC filings; lines some companies do not report are shown as a dash rather than estimated. The risk-free rate is the 10-year US Treasury yield. A DCF is a way of making assumptions explicit, not a forecast: it states what the company would be worth if the assumptions held. The scores are screens that point where to look, not verdicts. Nothing here is a recommendation to buy or sell.