PGY · Financials(finance services) · 6 years of annual accounts filed with the SEC · latest fiscal year ended 2025-12-31
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Pagaya Technologies Ltd. reported revenue of $1.3 billion in fiscal 2025. Of the $274.5 million its operations generated over 6 years, 29.5% went back into the business. On the accounting screens, it passes 6 of 7 Piotroski tests; 1 of the six cross-checks between its statements fires.
Revenue, fiscal 20251.3B
Operating margin20.9%gross margin 40.6%
Return on invested capital—-12.3% on average over 3 years
Free cash flow after stock pay170.6M13.5% of revenue
Net debt ÷ EBITDA—net debt —
Piotroski F-score6/7tests of improvement passed
Is it growing?
Revenue and the operating income it turns into. Growth that does not reach operating income is growth bought with margin.
RevenueOperating income
-0.5B00.5B1.0B1.5B
2020
2021Revenue 445.9MOperating income -5.8M
2022Revenue 685.4MOperating income -251.5M
2023Revenue 772.8MOperating income -24.4M
2024Revenue 1.0BOperating income 66.8M
2025Revenue 1.3BOperating income 263.8M
202020212022202320242025
Compound growth a year
3 yrs
5 yrs
Revenue
+22.5%
—
Shares
+29.5%
—
Falling shares are buybacks: each remaining share owns more of the company.
Does it earn more than its capital costs?
Margins say how much of each sale is kept; return on invested capital says how much the business earns on the money it needs to operate. Growth only creates value when that return is above the cost of the capital.
Return on invested capitalCost of capital today · 10.2%
-60%-40%-20%0%20%
2020
2021
2022Return on invested capital -43.3%
2023Return on invested capital -4.4%
2024Return on invested capital 10.9%
2025
202020212022202320242025
Economic profit
Economic profit
-400M-300M-200M-100M0100M
2020
2021
2022Economic profit -329.4M
2023Economic profit -87.7M
2024Economic profit 4.4M
2025
202020212022202320242025
(return on capital − cost of capital) × capital invested: the profit left after paying for the money used. Today's cost of capital is applied to every year, since a past one cannot be rebuilt honestly.
Return on equity
17.0%
Return on assets
5.3%
Asset turnover
0.82×
Research & development
6.0% of revenue
Overheads (SG&A)
12.7% of revenue
Is the profit cash, and where does the cash go?
Net income is an accounting opinion; free cash flow is what was left in the bank after investing. Stock-based pay does not leave the bank — shareholders pay it through dilution — so it is shown taken off as well.
Net incomeFree cash flowAfter stock-based pay
-600M-400M-200M0200M400M
2020
2021Net income -91.2MFree cash flow 43.2MAfter stock-based pay -24.6M
2022Net income -302.3MFree cash flow -62.4MAfter stock-based pay -304.1M
2023Net income -128.4MFree cash flow -41.8MAfter stock-based pay -112.9M
2024Net income -401.4MFree cash flow 30.0MAfter stock-based pay -31.5M
2025Net income 81.4MFree cash flow 224.7MAfter stock-based pay 170.6M
202020212022202320242025
Where 6 years of operating cash went, 2020–2025
274.5M generated by the business. Each band is its share of that total.
Reinvested in the business 29%80.9M
Acquisitions 3%9.3M
Dividends 0%0
Share buybacks 0%0
Kept, or used to pay down debt 67%184.4M
Over the same years it paid 496.1M in stock.
Per share
Earnings per shareFree cash flow per shareDividend per share
-$10-$5$0$5
2020
2021Earnings per share $-5.60Free cash flow per share $2.65
2022Earnings per share $-7.90Free cash flow per share $-1.63
2023Earnings per share $-2.14Free cash flow per share $-0.70
2024Earnings per share $-5.66Free cash flow per share $0.42
2025Earnings per share $0.98Free cash flow per share $2.70
202020212022202320242025
Shares outstanding
Diluted shares
020M40M60M80M100M
2020
2021Diluted shares 16.3M
2022Diluted shares 38.3M
2023Diluted shares 60.0M
2024Diluted shares 70.9M
2025Diluted shares 83.1M
202020212022202320242025
Debt and liquidity
Debt is not bad in itself; debt the business cannot service in a bad year is. Net debt is debt minus cash, and below zero the company holds more cash than it owes.
Net debt
-300M-200M-100M0100M200M
2020
2021
2022Net debt -248.0M
2023Net debt -148.8M
2024Net debt 133.4M
2025
202020212022202320242025
Net debt ÷ EBITDA
—
Interest coverage
— operating income ÷ interest
Current ratio
— current assets ÷ current liabilities
Cash conversion cycle
—
Three classic screens of the accounts
Each asks a different question of the same statements — is it improving, does it look like a company heading for distress, do the accounts resemble ones that were manipulated. None is a verdict; each shows what moves it.
Piotroski F-score
Is the business improving? Nine yes-or-no tests, this year against last.
6of 7 tests passed
✓ProfitableReturn on assets above zeropassed
✓Cash from operationsOperating cash flow above zeropassed
✓Profitability improvedReturn on assets higher than a year beforepassed
✓Profit backed by cashOperating cash flow above net income (low accruals)passed
–Less long-term debtLong-term debt as a share of assets fell — not reportedno data
–More liquidCurrent ratio higher than a year before — not reportedno data
✕No new sharesShare count did not growfailed
✓Better gross marginGross margin higher than a year beforepassed
✓Sells more per assetAsset turnover higher than a year beforepassed
Where it misleads: it measures change, not level. An excellent business that stood still for a year scores low; a poor one recovering from a disaster scores high.
Altman Z''-score
Does the balance sheet look like those of companies that went bankrupt?
The accounts lack a line it needs (retained earnings, current assets or liabilities).
Beneish M-score
Do the accounts resemble those of companies that manipulated their earnings?
The accounts lack too many of the lines it needs.
Where the statements disagree
Cross-checks between the income statement, the balance sheet and the cash flow for the latest year, each with the benign reading and the worrying one.
Capital spending (14M) is well below depreciation (30M).
Benign
Mature assets, or a business that has become less capital-intensive.
Worrying
Under-investing: today's profit is being held up by consuming tomorrow's capacity.
What is it worth, under which assumptions?
A company is worth the cash it will generate, brought back to today. This model projects revenue with growth that fades over the years, applies a free cash flow margin, and discounts the result at the cost of capital. Every assumption says where it came from, and all of them can be changed.
Value per share, with these assumptions$7.43discounted at 10.2% a year · 56% of it from after year 10
Type a share price on the left to ask the reverse questions: what growth, what margin or what discount rate that price implies.
What the value implies, in the usual multiples
At this model's value
Price ÷ earnings
7.6×
Enterprise value ÷ EBITDA
2.1×
Enterprise value ÷ revenue
0.5×
Free cash flow yield
27.6%
From cash flows to a value per share
10 years of cash flow, today274.0M
Everything after, today343.7M
The whole business617.7M
Minus net debt-0
What belongs to shareholders617.7M
Divided among 83.1M shares: <strong>$7.43</strong> each.
The projection next to its history
Reported free cash flow after stock pay, then the model's. A projection that looks nothing like the past needs a reason.
ReportedProjected
-400M-200M0200M
2020
2021Reported -24.6M
2022Reported -304.1M
2023Reported -112.9M
2024Reported -31.5M
2025Reported 170.6M
2026Projected 24.2M
2027Projected 29.6M
2028Projected 35.6M
2029Projected 41.8M
2030Projected 48.1M
2031Projected 54.1M
2032Projected 59.5M
2033Projected 63.9M
2034Projected 67.1M
2035Projected 68.8M
20202022202420262028203020322034
Year by year
2026
2027
2028
2029
2030
2031
2032
2033
2034
2035
Revenue
1.6B
1.9B
2.3B
2.7B
3.1B
3.5B
3.9B
4.2B
4.4B
4.5B
Growth
25.0%
22.5%
20.0%
17.5%
15.0%
12.5%
10.0%
7.5%
5.0%
2.5%
Cash margin
1.5%
1.5%
1.5%
1.5%
1.5%
1.5%
1.5%
1.5%
1.5%
1.5%
Free cash flow
24.2M
29.6M
35.6M
41.8M
48.1M
54.1M
59.5M
63.9M
67.1M
68.8M
Worth today
21.9M
24.4M
26.5M
28.3M
29.5M
30.1M
30.1M
29.3M
27.9M
26.0M
If the least-known inputs move
Value per share as two inputs change at a time. Neighbouring cells that differ a lot are the conclusion: the value depends on numbers nobody knows to a point.
The discount rate and growth forever
discount ↓ · forever →
1.5%
2.0%
2.5%
3.0%
3.5%
9.2%
8
8
9
9
10
9.7%
7
8
8
9
9
10.2%
7
7
7
8
8
10.7%
6
7
7
7
8
11.2%
6
6
6
7
7
Year-one growth and the final margin
margin ↓ · growth →
21.0%
23.0%
25.0%
27.0%
29.0%
1.2%
5
6
6
7
7
1.4%
6
6
7
7
8
1.5%
6
7
7
8
9
1.7%
7
7
8
9
9
1.8%
7
8
9
9
10
All the inputs moving at once
5,000 valuations, each with growth, final margin, discount rate and growth forever drawn at random around the values on the left (spreads of 3.0%, 2.0%, 1.0% and 0.5%). Not a probability — the spreads are assumptions too — but an honest picture of how wide the answer is.
10th percentile$-2.52
Median$7.51
90th percentile$18.37
$0.00$20.00
Half of the simulations land between <b>$2.32</b> and <b>$13.08</b>; one in ten below $-2.52, one in ten above $18.37.
Does the long run make sense?
0.9×The terminal value prices the business in year 10 at 0.9 times that year's EBITDA.
3%To grow 2.5% forever while reinvesting 89% of its after-tax operating profit, the business must earn 3% on the new capital — it has earned -12% on average over the last five years.
56%of the value comes from after year 10. The more of it, the more the answer depends on the part nobody can see.
What lenders charge, after the tax saving on interest: 6.74% × (1 − 35.0%) = <strong>4.38%</strong>.
Weighted by how much of each the company uses (book value (no price given)): <strong>10.24%</strong>, the rate every future cash flow is discounted at.
What it has filed lately
The last twelve months at the SEC, most important first: annual and quarterly reports, events, large holders and insiders.
Every Form 4 filed in the last twelve months, read line by line: 6 filings by 4 people. Open-market purchases and sales are counted apart from awards, option exercises and shares withheld for taxes.
Bought on the open market—none in the period
Sold on the open market$719,8417 sale(s) by 4 insider(s)
Under pre-arranged plans14%of the sales followed a 10b5-1 plan set months earlier
A Form 4 says what happened, when, how many shares and at what price. It does not say why: a sale can be diversification, a tax bill or a plan fixed months earlier, and an award is pay, not a purchase. Nothing here is a reason to buy or sell anything.
Which large funds report holding it
From the Form 13F of the 28 institutions followed on this site, as of the end of their last reported quarter. A 13F is filed up to 45 days later and shows only long positions in US-listed shares.
Accounts from the company's own SEC filings; lines some companies do not report are shown as a dash rather than estimated. The risk-free rate is the 10-year US Treasury yield. A DCF is a way of making assumptions explicit, not a forecast: it states what the company would be worth if the assumptions held. The scores are screens that point where to look, not verdicts. Nothing here is a recommendation to buy or sell.
