SphinxRisk

Strategy Inc

MSTR · Financials (finance services) · 10 years of annual accounts filed with the SEC · latest fiscal year ended 2025-12-31

Strategy Inc reported revenue of $477.2 million in fiscal 2025, after shrinking 0.6% a year over the previous 9 years. Its operating margin narrowed from 14.5% in 2017 to -1140.8%, and it earned -13.6% on its invested capital in the latest year. Of the $192.9 million its operations generated over 10 years, 159.1% went to buybacks and 22.8% back into the business; the share count rose 2304.6%. On the accounting screens, it passes 1 of 2 Piotroski tests and its Altman Z'' of 4.34 is in the safe zone; 2 of the six cross-checks between its statements fire.

Revenue, fiscal 2025 477.2M -0.6% a year over 9 years
Operating margin -1140.8% gross margin 68.7%
Return on invested capital -13.6% -27.3% on average over 4 years
Free cash flow after stock pay -128.8M -27.0% of revenue
Net debt ÷ EBITDA -1.1× net debt 5.9B
Piotroski F-score 1/2 tests of improvement passed

Is it growing?

Revenue and the operating income it turns into. Growth that does not reach operating income is growth bought with margin.

RevenueOperating income
Compound growth a year
3 yrs5 yrs9 yrs
Revenue-1.3%-1.3%-0.6%
Shares+18.8%+94.3%+42.4%

Falling shares are buybacks: each remaining share owns more of the company.

Does it earn more than its capital costs?

Margins say how much of each sale is kept; return on invested capital says how much the business earns on the money it needs to operate. Growth only creates value when that return is above the cost of the capital.

GrossOperatingNetFree cash flow

Return on invested capital

Return on invested capital

Economic profit

Needs a cost of capital, which comes from the valuation below.

Return on equity
-8.7%
Return on assets
-6.2%
Asset turnover
0.01×
Research & development
19.7% of revenue
Overheads (SG&A)
31.8% of revenue

Is the profit cash, and where does the cash go?

Net income is an accounting opinion; free cash flow is what was left in the bank after investing. Stock-based pay does not leave the bank — shareholders pay it through dilution — so it is shown taken off as well.

Net incomeFree cash flowAfter stock-based pay

Where 10 years of operating cash went, 2017–2025

192.9M generated by the business. Each band is its share of that total.

  • Reinvested in the business 23% 44.0M
  • Acquisitions 0% 0
  • Dividends 0% 0
  • Share buybacks 159% 306.9M
  • More than it generated: funded with cash or new debt -82% -158.0M

Over the same years it paid 358.1M in stock. The share count rose 2304.6%. The buybacks did not even cover what was handed out in stock.

Per share

Earnings per shareFree cash flow per shareDividend per share

Shares outstanding

Diluted shares

How strong is the balance sheet?

Debt is not bad in itself; debt the business cannot service in a bad year is. Net debt is debt minus cash, and below zero the company holds more cash than it owes.

Net debt
Net debt ÷ EBITDA
-1.1×
Interest coverage
— operating income ÷ interest
Current ratio
5.62 current assets ÷ current liabilities
Cash conversion cycle
— collects in 157d

Three classic screens of the accounts

Each asks a different question of the same statements — is it improving, does it look like a company heading for distress, do the accounts resemble ones that were manipulated. None is a verdict; each shows what moves it.

Piotroski F-score

Is the business improving? Nine yes-or-no tests, this year against last.

1of 2 tests passed
  • ProfitableReturn on assets above zero — not reported no data
  • Cash from operationsOperating cash flow above zero failed
  • Profitability improvedReturn on assets higher than a year before — not reported no data
  • Profit backed by cashOperating cash flow above net income (low accruals) passed
  • Less long-term debtLong-term debt as a share of assets fell — not reported no data
  • More liquidCurrent ratio higher than a year before — not reported no data
  • No new sharesShare count did not grow — not reported no data
  • Better gross marginGross margin higher than a year before — not reported no data
  • Sells more per assetAsset turnover higher than a year before — not reported no data

Where it misleads: it measures change, not level. An excellent business that stood still for a year scores low; a poor one recovering from a disaster scores high.

Altman Z''-score

Does the balance sheet look like those of companies that went bankrupt?

4.34safe zone
  • Working capital ÷ assets 0.03 × 6.56+0.22
  • Retained earnings ÷ assets 0.10 × 3.26+0.33
  • Operating income ÷ assets -0.09 × 6.72-0.59
  • Equity ÷ liabilities 4.16 × 1.05+4.37

Where it misleads: buybacks. A company that returns so much cash that its equity turns small or negative sinks the last two ratios without being anywhere near bankruptcy. Banks and insurers do not fit the model at all.

Beneish M-score

Do the accounts resemble those of companies that manipulated their earnings?

The accounts lack too many of the lines it needs.

Where the statements disagree

Cross-checks between the income statement, the balance sheet and the cash flow for the latest year, each with the benign reading and the worrying one.

Capital spending (8M) is well below depreciation (26M).

Benign

Mature assets, or a business that has become less capital-intensive.

Worrying

Under-investing: today's profit is being held up by consuming tomorrow's capacity.

The effective tax rate is -30.4%.

Benign

A favourable geographic mix, or legitimate tax credits.

Worrying

Not sustainable; projecting it forward inflates the valuation.

What is it worth, under which assumptions?

A company is worth the cash it will generate, brought back to today. This model projects revenue with growth that fades over the years, applies a free cash flow margin, and discounts the result at the cost of capital. Every assumption says where it came from, and all of them can be changed.

Revenue
M $

revenue of fiscal 2025

%

revenue grew -1.7% a year over the last 4 years; it fades to the terminal rate by the last year

yrs

ten years for growth to fade to the terminal rate

Cash from each sale
%

free cash flow to the firm after stock-based pay ÷ revenue, last 2 fiscal years together

%

the margin in year ten; by default the business keeps today's

The long run
%

growth forever after year ten, below the risk-free rate: no company outgrows the economy forever

The discount rate
%

10-year US Treasury yield (FRED, DGS10), 2026-09-24

not measured on this public page, which uses only public filings: 1.0 assumes it moves like the market. Sign in to measure it from prices

%

the extra return demanded for holding shares; it cannot be measured, and 4–6% is the common range

%

no interest line: the risk-free rate + 1.5 points

%

effective rate in the last fiscal year, -30.4%, kept within 0–35%

The price
$

Type the price you see at your broker. It is used only for the reverse questions: what that price implies.

Back to the defaults

SEC from the filings Treasury the 10-year yield measured from prices assumption cannot be measured yours you changed it

With a free cash flow margin at or below zero in year ten, the business never generates cash for its owners and a DCF says nothing useful. Set a positive margin for year ten to see what it would take.

What it has filed lately

The last twelve months at the SEC, most important first: annual and quarterly reports, events, large holders and insiders.

Companies like this one

Same SEC industry (finance services) first, then the rest of financials.

Every figure, year by year

10 fiscal years · 30 measures
2017201820192020202120222023202420252025
Size
Revenue503.8M497.6M486.3M480.7M510.8M499.3M496.3M463.5M—477.2M
Revenue growth—-1.2%-2.3%-1.1%+6.2%-2.3%-0.6%-6.6%——
Operating income73.2M4.0M-1.0M-13.6M-784.5M-1.3B-115.0M-1.9B—-5.4B
Net income18.2M22.5M34.4M-7.5M-535.5M-1.5B429.1M-1.2B—-3.8B
Margins
Gross margin80.8%80.0%79.4%81.1%82.0%79.4%77.8%72.1%—68.7%
Operating margin14.5%0.8%-0.2%-2.8%-153.6%-255.5%-23.2%-399.8%—-1140.8%
Net margin3.6%4.5%7.1%-1.6%-104.8%-294.4%86.5%-251.7%—-806.3%
Free cash flow margin14.8%0.8%10.4%10.4%17.8%0.1%2.0%-12.1%—-15.8%
R&D ÷ revenue15.6%20.6%22.5%21.5%22.9%25.5%24.3%25.6%—19.7%
SG&A ÷ revenue15.9%17.3%17.8%16.7%18.7%22.3%23.2%30.3%—31.8%
Cash
Free cash flow74.3M3.8M50.7M50.0M91.1M725,0009.8M-56.0M—-75.5M
Stock-based pay14.3M14.6M10.2M11.2M44.1M63.6M69.6M77.1M—53.4M
Free cash flow after stock pay60.1M-10.9M40.5M38.8M47.0M-62.9M-59.8M-133.1M—-128.8M
Free cash flow to the firm30.2M-5.6M5.4M-46.4M-1.0B-1.4B-609.5M-2.6B—-7.1B
Free cash flow ÷ net income4.1×0.2×1.5×-6.6×-0.2×-0.0×0.0×0.0×—0.0×
Capex ÷ revenue0.8%1.4%2.1%0.8%0.5%0.5%0.6%0.6%—1.7%
Returns
Return on invested capital———-2.4%-33.5%-71.0%-14.4%-10.2%—-13.6%
Return on equity3.0%4.2%6.8%-1.7%-54.7%—19.8%-6.4%—-8.7%
Return on assets1.9%2.6%3.7%-0.5%-15.1%-61.0%9.0%-4.5%—-6.2%
Asset turnover0.5×0.6×0.5×0.3×0.1×0.2×0.1×0.0×—0.0×
Economic profit——————————
Per share
Earnings per share$1.58$1.97$3.33$-0.78$-53.44$-12.98$2.59$-6.06—$-13.86
Free cash flow per share$6.44$0.33$4.91$5.16$9.09$0.01$0.06$-0.29—$-0.27
Dividend per share——————————
Payout ratio——————————
Book value per share$52.46$46.42$49.24$46.08$97.70$-3.38$13.07$94.68—$158.91
Diluted shares11.5M11.4M10.3M9.7M10.0M113.2M165.7M192.5M—277.7M
Balance sheet
Net debt———426.7M2.1B2.3B2.1B7.2B—5.9B
Net debt ÷ EBITDA———-1456.3×-2.7×-1.8×-21.2×-3.9×—-1.1×
Interest coverage——————————
Current ratio3.2×3.0×2.8×1.0×0.9×0.8×0.8×0.7×—5.6×
Cash conversion cycle (days)——————————
Scores
Piotroski F-score—554334201
Altman Z''8.457.826.841.67-1.13-5.78-0.051.73—4.34
Beneish M—-1.95-1.44-0.61-3.41-5.58-1.92-2.55——

Accounts from the company's own SEC filings; lines some companies do not report are shown as a dash rather than estimated. The risk-free rate is the 10-year US Treasury yield. A DCF is a way of making assumptions explicit, not a forecast: it states what the company would be worth if the assumptions held. The scores are screens that point where to look, not verdicts. Nothing here is a recommendation to buy or sell.