PAYC · Technology(services-prepackaged software) · 10 years of annual accounts filed with the SEC · latest fiscal year ended 2025-12-31
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Paycom Software, Inc. reported revenue of $2.1 billion in fiscal 2025, after growing 22.5% a year over the previous 9 years. Its operating margin narrowed from 30.9% in 2016 to 27.6%. Of the $3.2 billion its operations generated over 10 years, 38.8% went back into the business and 33.2% to buybacks; the share count fell 4.8%. On the accounting screens, it passes 5 of 8 Piotroski tests, its Altman Z'' of 2.19 is in the grey zone and its Beneish M-score is below the -1.78 line; none of the six cross-checks between its statements fires.
Revenue, fiscal 20252.1B+22.5% a year over 9 years
Operating margin27.6%gross margin 83.2%
Return on invested capital—21.8% on average over 2 years
Free cash flow after stock pay289.3M14.1% of revenue
Net debt ÷ EBITDA—net debt —
Piotroski F-score5/8tests of improvement passed
Is it growing?
Revenue and the operating income it turns into. Growth that does not reach operating income is growth bought with margin.
RevenueOperating income
01B2B3B
2016Revenue 329.1MOperating income 101.7M
2017Revenue 433.0MOperating income 129.7M
2018Revenue 566.3MOperating income 173.7M
2019Revenue 737.7MOperating income 226.2M
2020Revenue 841.4MOperating income 186.1M
2021Revenue 1.1BOperating income 253.6M
2022Revenue 1.4BOperating income 378.7M
2023Revenue 1.7BOperating income 451.3M
2024Revenue 1.9BOperating income 634.3M
2025Revenue 2.1BOperating income 567.2M
2016201720182019202020212022202320242025
Compound growth a year
3 yrs
5 yrs
9 yrs
Revenue
+14.3%
+19.5%
+22.5%
Operating income
+14.4%
+25.0%
+21.0%
Net income
+17.2%
+25.9%
+23.0%
Earnings per share
+18.7%
+26.8%
+23.7%
Free cash flow per share
+22.1%
+26.1%
+25.6%
Shares
-1.2%
-0.8%
-0.5%
Falling shares are buybacks: each remaining share owns more of the company.
Does it earn more than its capital costs?
Margins say how much of each sale is kept; return on invested capital says how much the business earns on the money it needs to operate. Growth only creates value when that return is above the cost of the capital.
Return on invested capitalCost of capital today · 10.2%
0%10%20%30%40%
2016Return on invested capital 30.1%
2017Return on invested capital 39.6%
2018Return on invested capital 36.9%
2019Return on invested capital 32.3%
2020Return on invested capital 20.9%
2021Return on invested capital 21.0%
2022Return on invested capital 22.6%
2023
2024
2025
2016201720182019202020212022202320242025
Economic profit
Economic profit
050M100M150M
2016Economic profit 46.8M
2017Economic profit 93.0M
2018Economic profit 98.5M
2019Economic profit 123.4M
2020Economic profit 73.3M
2021Economic profit 99.6M
2022Economic profit 149.5M
2023
2024
2025
2016201720182019202020212022202320242025
(return on capital − cost of capital) × capital invested: the profit left after paying for the money used. Today's cost of capital is applied to every year, since a past one cannot be rebuilt honestly.
Return on equity
26.2%
Return on assets
6.0%
Asset turnover
0.27×
Research & development
13.8% of revenue
Overheads (SG&A)
55.5% of revenue
Is the profit cash, and where does the cash go?
Net income is an accounting opinion; free cash flow is what was left in the bank after investing. Stock-based pay does not leave the bank — shareholders pay it through dilution — so it is shown taken off as well.
Net incomeFree cash flowAfter stock-based pay
0200M400M600M
2016Net income 70.4MFree cash flow 55.0MAfter stock-based pay 34.3M
2017Net income 123.5MFree cash flow 70.8MAfter stock-based pay 34.7M
2018Net income 137.1MFree cash flow 124.9MAfter stock-based pay 88.3M
2019Net income 180.6MFree cash flow 131.3MAfter stock-based pay 84.1M
2020Net income 143.5MFree cash flow 133.1MAfter stock-based pay 43.0M
2021Net income 196.0MFree cash flow 198.7MAfter stock-based pay 101.2M
2022Net income 281.4MFree cash flow 232.4MAfter stock-based pay 137.5M
2023Net income 340.8MFree cash flow 292.4MAfter stock-based pay 162.6M
2024Net income 502.0MFree cash flow 341.0MAfter stock-based pay 363.9M
2025Net income 453.4MFree cash flow 408.0MAfter stock-based pay 289.3M
2016201720182019202020212022202320242025
Where 10 years of operating cash went, 2016–2025
3.2B generated by the business. Each band is its share of that total.
Reinvested in the business 39%1.3B
Acquisitions 0%0
Dividends 7%234.4M
Share buybacks 33%1.1B
Kept, or used to pay down debt 21%673.9M
Over the same years it paid 648.8M in stock. The share count fell 4.8%. 430.5M of the buybacks went beyond offsetting that dilution.
Per share
Earnings per shareFree cash flow per shareDividend per share
$0.0$2.5$5.0$7.5$10.0
2016Earnings per share $1.19Free cash flow per share $0.93
2017Earnings per share $2.10Free cash flow per share $1.20
2018Earnings per share $2.34Free cash flow per share $2.13
2019Earnings per share $3.09Free cash flow per share $2.25
2020Earnings per share $2.46Free cash flow per share $2.28
2021Earnings per share $3.37Free cash flow per share $3.41
2022Earnings per share $4.84Free cash flow per share $3.99
2023Earnings per share $5.88Free cash flow per share $5.04Dividend per share $1.12
2024Earnings per share $8.92Free cash flow per share $6.06Dividend per share $1.51
2025Earnings per share $8.08Free cash flow per share $7.27Dividend per share $1.51
2016201720182019202020212022202320242025
Shares outstanding
Diluted shares
56M57M58M59M
2016Diluted shares 59.0M
2017Diluted shares 58.8M
2018Diluted shares 58.6M
2019Diluted shares 58.4M
2020Diluted shares 58.3M
2021Diluted shares 58.2M
2022Diluted shares 58.2M
2023Diluted shares 58.0M
2024Diluted shares 56.3M
2025Diluted shares 56.1M
2016201720182019202020212022202320242025
Debt and liquidity
Debt is not bad in itself; debt the business cannot service in a bad year is. Net debt is debt minus cash, and below zero the company holds more cash than it owes.
Net debt
-400M-300M-200M-100M0
2016Net debt -30.3M
2017Net debt -10.8M
2018Net debt -11.3M
2019Net debt -101.0M
2020Net debt -120.8M
2021Net debt -248.8M
2022Net debt -371.7M
2023
2024
2025
2016201720182019202020212022202320242025
Net debt ÷ EBITDA
—
Interest coverage
167× operating income ÷ interest
Current ratio
1.09 current assets ÷ current liabilities
Cash conversion cycle
3 days collects in 8d, stock 2d, pays in 7d
Three classic screens of the accounts
Each asks a different question of the same statements — is it improving, does it look like a company heading for distress, do the accounts resemble ones that were manipulated. None is a verdict; each shows what moves it.
Piotroski F-score
Is the business improving? Nine yes-or-no tests, this year against last.
5of 8 tests passed
✓ProfitableReturn on assets above zeropassed
✓Cash from operationsOperating cash flow above zeropassed
✕Profitability improvedReturn on assets higher than a year beforefailed
✓Profit backed by cashOperating cash flow above net income (low accruals)passed
–Less long-term debtLong-term debt as a share of assets fell — not reportedno data
✕More liquidCurrent ratio higher than a year beforefailed
✓No new sharesShare count did not growpassed
✓Better gross marginGross margin higher than a year beforepassed
✕Sells more per assetAsset turnover higher than a year beforefailed
Where it misleads: it measures change, not level. An excellent business that stood still for a year scores low; a poor one recovering from a disaster scores high.
Altman Z''-score
Does the balance sheet look like those of companies that went bankrupt?
2.19grey zone
1.12.6
Working capital ÷ assets 0.06 × 6.56+0.41
Retained earnings ÷ assets 0.30 × 3.26+0.97
Operating income ÷ assets 0.07 × 6.72+0.50
Equity ÷ liabilities 0.30 × 1.05+0.31
Where it misleads: buybacks. A company that returns so much cash that its equity turns small or negative sinks the last two ratios without being anywhere near bankruptcy. Banks and insurers do not fit the model at all.
Beneish M-score
Do the accounts resemble those of companies that manipulated their earnings?
-2.54below the -1.78 line
-1.78
Receivables vs sales 1.05+0.97
Gross margin slipping 0.99+0.52
Soft assets 1.00 (not reported, set to 1)+0.40
Sales growth 1.09+0.97
Slower depreciation 1.00 (not reported, set to 1)+0.12
Overheads vs sales 1.14-0.20
Profit not in cash -0.03-0.14
Leverage rising 1.06-0.35
Where it misleads: fast growth and acquisitions. Sales growth carries a heavy weight, so a company growing 50% a year scores like a suspect without having done anything. It is a screen from a 1999 study, not an accusation.
Where the statements disagree
Cross-checks between the income statement, the balance sheet and the cash flow for the latest year, each with the benign reading and the worrying one.
None of the six cross-checks fires for the latest year: receivables and inventory move with revenue, profit turns into cash, investment keeps up with depreciation, the tax rate is ordinary and debt is moderate.
What is it worth, under which assumptions?
A company is worth the cash it will generate, brought back to today. This model projects revenue with growth that fades over the years, applies a free cash flow margin, and discounts the result at the cost of capital. Every assumption says where it came from, and all of them can be changed.
Value per share, with these assumptions$126.90discounted at 10.2% a year · 54% of it from after year 10
Type a share price on the left to ask the reverse questions: what growth, what margin or what discount rate that price implies.
What the value implies, in the usual multiples
At this model's value
Price ÷ earnings
15.7×
Enterprise value ÷ EBITDA
9.6×
Enterprise value ÷ revenue
3.5×
Free cash flow yield
4.1%
From cash flows to a value per share
10 years of cash flow, today3.3B
Everything after, today3.9B
The whole business7.1B
Minus net debt-0
What belongs to shareholders7.1B
Divided among 56.1M shares: <strong>$126.90</strong> each.
The projection next to its history
Reported free cash flow after stock pay, then the model's. A projection that looks nothing like the past needs a reason.
ReportedProjected
0200M400M600M800M
2016Reported 34.3M
2017Reported 34.7M
2018Reported 88.3M
2019Reported 84.1M
2020Reported 43.0M
2021Reported 101.2M
2022Reported 137.5M
2023Reported 162.6M
2024Reported 363.9M
2025Reported 289.3M
2026Projected 328.4M
2027Projected 386.2M
2028Projected 446.9M
2029Projected 508.8M
2030Projected 569.5M
2031Projected 626.8M
2032Projected 678.0M
2033Projected 720.6M
2034Projected 752.2M
2035Projected 771.0M
2016201820202022202420262028203020322034
Year by year
2026
2027
2028
2029
2030
2031
2032
2033
2034
2035
Revenue
2.5B
2.9B
3.3B
3.8B
4.3B
4.7B
5.1B
5.4B
5.6B
5.8B
Growth
19.5%
17.6%
15.7%
13.8%
11.9%
10.1%
8.2%
6.3%
4.4%
2.5%
Cash margin
13.4%
13.4%
13.4%
13.4%
13.4%
13.4%
13.4%
13.4%
13.4%
13.4%
Free cash flow
328.4M
386.2M
446.9M
508.8M
569.5M
626.8M
678.0M
720.6M
752.2M
771.0M
Worth today
297.9M
317.8M
333.6M
344.5M
349.8M
349.2M
342.7M
330.3M
312.8M
290.8M
If the least-known inputs move
Value per share as two inputs change at a time. Neighbouring cells that differ a lot are the conclusion: the value depends on numbers nobody knows to a point.
The discount rate and growth forever
discount ↓ · forever →
1.5%
2.0%
2.5%
3.0%
3.5%
9.2%
131
139
148
158
170
9.7%
123
129
137
145
155
10.2%
115
120
127
134
143
10.7%
108
113
118
125
132
11.2%
102
106
111
116
123
Year-one growth and the final margin
margin ↓ · growth →
15.5%
17.5%
19.5%
21.5%
23.5%
10.7%
92
99
107
115
124
12.0%
100
108
117
126
136
13.4%
109
118
127
137
148
14.7%
117
127
137
148
160
16.1%
126
136
147
159
171
All the inputs moving at once
5,000 valuations, each with growth, final margin, discount rate and growth forever drawn at random around the values on the left (spreads of 3.0%, 2.0%, 1.0% and 0.5%). Not a probability — the spreads are assumptions too — but an honest picture of how wide the answer is.
10th percentile$96.37
Median$127.05
90th percentile$171.64
$100.00$150.00$200.00
Half of the simulations land between <b>$109.44</b> and <b>$147.69</b>; one in ten below $96.37, one in ten above $171.64.
Does the long run make sense?
4.9×The terminal value prices the business in year 10 at 4.9 times that year's EBITDA.
7%To grow 2.5% forever while reinvesting 34% of its after-tax operating profit, the business must earn 7% on the new capital — it has earned 22% on average over the last five years.
54%of the value comes from after year 10. The more of it, the more the answer depends on the part nobody can see.
What lenders charge, after the tax saving on interest: 6.74% × (1 − 26.8%) = <strong>4.93%</strong>.
Weighted by how much of each the company uses (book value (no price given)): <strong>10.24%</strong>, the rate every future cash flow is discounted at.
What it has filed lately
The last twelve months at the SEC, most important first: annual and quarterly reports, events, large holders and insiders.
Every Form 4 filed in the last twelve months, read line by line: 6 filings by 5 people. Open-market purchases and sales are counted apart from awards, option exercises and shares withheld for taxes.
Bought on the open market—none in the period
Sold on the open market$1.0M4 sale(s) by 2 insider(s)
Under pre-arranged plans0%of the sales followed a 10b5-1 plan set months earlier
A Form 4 says what happened, when, how many shares and at what price. It does not say why: a sale can be diversification, a tax bill or a plan fixed months earlier, and an award is pay, not a purchase. Nothing here is a reason to buy or sell anything.
Which large funds report holding it
From the Form 13F of the 28 institutions followed on this site, as of the end of their last reported quarter. A 13F is filed up to 45 days later and shows only long positions in US-listed shares.
Accounts from the company's own SEC filings; lines some companies do not report are shown as a dash rather than estimated. The risk-free rate is the 10-year US Treasury yield. A DCF is a way of making assumptions explicit, not a forecast: it states what the company would be worth if the assumptions held. The scores are screens that point where to look, not verdicts. Nothing here is a recommendation to buy or sell.