MGY · Energy(crude petroleum & natural gas) · 10 years of annual accounts filed with the SEC · latest fiscal year ended 2025-12-31
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Magnolia Oil & Gas Corp reported revenue of $1.3 billion in fiscal 2025. Of the $5.7 billion its operations generated over 10 years, 12.0% went to acquisitions and 6.8% to dividends. On the accounting screens, it passes 6 of 8 Piotroski tests and its Altman Z'' of 4.77 is in the safe zone; none of the six cross-checks between its statements fires.
Revenue, fiscal 20251.3B
Operating margin33.5%gross margin —
Return on invested capital14.8%28.5% on average over 5 years
Free cash flow—
Net debt ÷ EBITDA0.1×net debt 126.5M
Piotroski F-score6/8tests of improvement passed
Is it growing?
Revenue and the operating income it turns into. Growth that does not reach operating income is growth bought with margin.
RevenueOperating income
-2.0B-1.0B01.0B2.0B
2018
2018
2018
2019Revenue 942.2MOperating income 127.5M
2020Revenue 541.3MOperating income -1.9B
2021Revenue 1.1BOperating income 602.6M
2022Revenue 1.7BOperating income 1.1B
2023Revenue 1.2BOperating income 534.5M
2024Revenue 1.3BOperating income 512.0M
2025Revenue 1.3BOperating income 439.2M
2018201820182019202020212022202320242025
Compound growth a year
3 yrs
5 yrs
9 yrs
Revenue
-8.2%
+19.4%
—
Operating income
-25.8%
—
—
Net income
-28.6%
—
—
Earnings per share
-28.3%
—
—
Dividend per share
+15.0%
—
—
Shares
-0.4%
+2.2%
—
Falling shares are buybacks: each remaining share owns more of the company.
Does it earn more than its capital costs?
Margins say how much of each sale is kept; return on invested capital says how much the business earns on the money it needs to operate. Growth only creates value when that return is above the cost of the capital.
GrossOperatingNetFree cash flow
-400.0%-200.0%0.0%200.0%
2018
2018
2018
2019Operating 13.5%Net 5.3%
2020Operating -355.7%Net -223.2%
2021Operating 55.9%Net 38.7%
2022Operating 63.4%Net 52.7%
2023Operating 43.6%Net 31.6%
2024Operating 38.9%Net 27.8%
2025Operating 33.5%Net 24.8%
2018201820182019202020212022202320242025
Return on invested capital
Return on invested capital
-200.0%-100.0%0.0%100.0%
2018
2018
2018
2019Return on invested capital 3.5%
2020Return on invested capital -162.9%
2021Return on invested capital 41.4%
2022Return on invested capital 50.1%
2023Return on invested capital 18.9%
2024Return on invested capital 17.5%
2025Return on invested capital 14.8%
2018201820182019202020212022202320242025
Economic profit
Needs a cost of capital, which comes from the valuation below.
Return on equity
16.3%
Return on assets
11.2%
Asset turnover
0.45×
Overheads (SG&A)
7.4% of revenue
Is the profit cash, and where does the cash go?
Net income is an accounting opinion; free cash flow is what was left in the bank after investing. Stock-based pay does not leave the bank — shareholders pay it through dilution — so it is shown taken off as well.
Net incomeFree cash flowAfter stock-based pay
-2.0B-1.0B01.0B
2018
2018
2018
2019Net income 50.2M
2020Net income -1.2B
2021Net income 417.3M
2022Net income 893.8M
2023Net income 388.3M
2024Net income 366.0M
2025Net income 325.3M
2018201820182019202020212022202320242025
Where 10 years of operating cash went, 2018–2025
5.7B generated by the business. Each band is its share of that total.
Reinvested in the business 0%0
Acquisitions 12%681.9M
Dividends 7%388.1M
Share buybacks 0%0
Kept, or used to pay down debt 81%4.6B
Over the same years it paid 108.3M in stock.
Per share
Earnings per shareFree cash flow per shareDividend per share
$-10.00$-5.00$0.00$5.00
2018
2018
2018
2019Earnings per share $0.30Dividend per share $0.00
2020Earnings per share $-7.27Dividend per share $0.00
2021Earnings per share $2.38Dividend per share $0.08
2022Earnings per share $4.76Dividend per share $0.40
2023Earnings per share $2.06Dividend per share $0.47
2024Earnings per share $1.96Dividend per share $0.52
2025Earnings per share $1.75Dividend per share $0.61
2018201820182019202020212022202320242025
Shares outstanding
Diluted shares
160.0M170.0M180.0M190.0M
2018
2018
2018
2019Diluted shares 167.0M
2020Diluted shares 166.3M
2021Diluted shares 175.4M
2022Diluted shares 187.9M
2023Diluted shares 188.4M
2024Diluted shares 186.5M
2025Diluted shares 185.6M
2018201820182019202020212022202320242025
How strong is the balance sheet?
Debt is not bad in itself; debt the business cannot service in a bad year is. Net debt is debt minus cash, and below zero the company holds more cash than it owes.
Net debt
-400.0M-200.0M0200.0M400.0M
2018
2018
2018Net debt 252.9M
2019Net debt 207.2M
2020Net debt 198.6M
2021Net debt 21.1M
2022Net debt -285.1M
2023Net debt -8.3M
2024Net debt 132.5M
2025Net debt 126.5M
2018201820182019202020212022202320242025
Net debt ÷ EBITDA
0.1×
Interest coverage
— operating income ÷ interest
Current ratio
1.54 current assets ÷ current liabilities
Cash conversion cycle
— collects in 32d
Three classic screens of the accounts
Each asks a different question of the same statements — is it improving, does it look like a company heading for distress, do the accounts resemble ones that were manipulated. None is a verdict; each shows what moves it.
Piotroski F-score
Is the business improving? Nine yes-or-no tests, this year against last.
6of 8 tests passed
✓ProfitableReturn on assets above zeropassed
✓Cash from operationsOperating cash flow above zeropassed
✕Profitability improvedReturn on assets higher than a year beforefailed
✓Profit backed by cashOperating cash flow above net income (low accruals)passed
✓Less long-term debtLong-term debt as a share of assets fellpassed
✓More liquidCurrent ratio higher than a year beforepassed
✓No new sharesShare count did not growpassed
–Better gross marginGross margin higher than a year before — not reportedno data
✕Sells more per assetAsset turnover higher than a year beforefailed
Where it misleads: it measures change, not level. An excellent business that stood still for a year scores low; a poor one recovering from a disaster scores high.
Altman Z''-score
Does the balance sheet look like those of companies that went bankrupt?
4.77safe zone
1.12.6
Working capital ÷ assets 0.05 × 6.56+0.35
Retained earnings ÷ assets 0.33 × 3.26+1.09
Operating income ÷ assets 0.15 × 6.72+1.02
Equity ÷ liabilities 2.21 × 1.05+2.32
Where it misleads: buybacks. A company that returns so much cash that its equity turns small or negative sinks the last two ratios without being anywhere near bankruptcy. Banks and insurers do not fit the model at all.
Beneish M-score
Do the accounts resemble those of companies that manipulated their earnings?
The accounts lack too many of the lines it needs.
Where the statements disagree
Cross-checks between the income statement, the balance sheet and the cash flow for the latest year, each with the benign reading and the worrying one.
None of the six cross-checks fires for the latest year: receivables and inventory move with revenue, profit turns into cash, investment keeps up with depreciation, the tax rate is ordinary and debt is moderate.
What is it worth, under which assumptions?
A company is worth the cash it will generate, brought back to today. This model projects revenue with growth that fades over the years, applies a free cash flow margin, and discounts the result at the cost of capital. Every assumption says where it came from, and all of them can be changed.
The SEC accounts lack the lines needed for revenue, free cash flow or the share count, so there is no DCF for this company.
What it has filed lately
The last twelve months at the SEC, most important first: annual and quarterly reports, events, large holders and insiders.
Every Form 4 filed in the last twelve months, read line by line: 6 filings by 6 people. Open-market purchases and sales are counted apart from awards, option exercises and shares withheld for taxes.
Bought on the open market$124,5712 purchase(s) by 2 insider(s)
Sold on the open market—none in the period
Under pre-arranged plans—of the sales followed a 10b5-1 plan set months earlier
A Form 4 says what happened, when, how many shares and at what price. It does not say why: a sale can be diversification, a tax bill or a plan fixed months earlier, and an award is pay, not a purchase. Nothing here is a reason to buy or sell anything.
Which large funds report holding it
From the Form 13F of the 28 institutions followed on this site, as of the end of their last reported quarter. A 13F is filed up to 45 days later and shows only long positions in US-listed shares.
Accounts from the company's own SEC filings; lines some companies do not report are shown as a dash rather than estimated. The risk-free rate is the 10-year US Treasury yield. A DCF is a way of making assumptions explicit, not a forecast: it states what the company would be worth if the assumptions held. The scores are screens that point where to look, not verdicts. Nothing here is a recommendation to buy or sell.
