EXE · Energy(crude petroleum & natural gas) · 10 years of annual accounts filed with the SEC · latest fiscal year ended 2025-12-31
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Expand Energy Corp reported revenue of $12.1 billion in fiscal 2025. Of the $15.4 billion its operations generated over 10 years, 58.9% went back into the business and 18.5% to dividends; the share count fell 97.8%. On the accounting screens, it passes 7 of 8 Piotroski tests, its Altman Z'' of 3.16 is in the safe zone and its Beneish M-score is below the -1.78 line; none of the six cross-checks between its statements fires.
Revenue, fiscal 202512.1B
Operating margin20.4%gross margin —
Return on invested capital8.4%10.9% on average over 4 years
Free cash flow after stock pay1.8B14.8% of revenue
Net debt ÷ EBITDA0.8×net debt 4.4B
Piotroski F-score7/8tests of improvement passed
Share counts are in today's shares. The SEC's filings restate only recent years after a split, so these jumps were read as splits and the older years scaled to match — otherwise per-share figures would compare different units:
15-for-1 before fiscal 2021.
Is it growing?
Revenue and the operating income it turns into. Growth that does not reach operating income is growth bought with margin.
RevenueOperating income
-10.0B010.0B20.0B
2019
2019Revenue 8.5BOperating income -31.0M
2020
2020Revenue 5.2BOperating income -8.7B
2021
2021
2022Revenue 11.7BOperating income 3.8B
2023Revenue 8.7BOperating income 3.1B
2024Revenue 4.2BOperating income -803.0M
2025Revenue 12.1BOperating income 2.5B
2019201920202020202120212022202320242025
Compound growth a year
3 yrs
5 yrs
9 yrs
Revenue
+1.1%
—
—
Operating income
-13.2%
—
—
Net income
-28.3%
—
—
Earnings per share
-39.3%
—
—
Free cash flow per share
-21.4%
—
—
Dividend per share
-27.4%
—
—
Shares
+18.1%
—
-34.5%
Falling shares are buybacks: each remaining share owns more of the company.
Does it earn more than its capital costs?
Margins say how much of each sale is kept; return on invested capital says how much the business earns on the money it needs to operate. Growth only creates value when that return is above the cost of the capital.
Return on invested capitalCost of capital today · 8.9%
-100.0%0.0%100.0%200.0%300.0%
2019
2019Return on invested capital -0.3%
2020
2020Return on invested capital 255.6%
2021
2021
2022Return on invested capital 20.1%
2023Return on invested capital 19.1%
2024Return on invested capital -4.0%
2025Return on invested capital 8.4%
2019201920202020202120212022202320242025
Economic profit
Economic profit
-10.0B-7.5B-5.0B-2.5B02.5B
2019
2019Economic profit -1.3B
2020
2020Economic profit -8.4B
2021
2021
2022Economic profit 1.4B
2023Economic profit 1.3B
2024Economic profit -3.0B
2025Economic profit -126.2M
2019201920202020202120212022202320242025
(return on capital − cost of capital) × capital invested: the profit left after paying for the money used. Today's cost of capital is applied to every year, since a past one cannot be rebuilt honestly.
Return on equity
9.8%
Return on assets
6.4%
Asset turnover
0.43×
Overheads (SG&A)
1.5% of revenue
Is the profit cash, and where does the cash go?
Net income is an accounting opinion; free cash flow is what was left in the bank after investing. Stock-based pay does not leave the bank — shareholders pay it through dilution — so it is shown taken off as well.
Net incomeFree cash flowAfter stock-based pay
-10.0B-5.0B05.0B
2019
2019Net income -308.0M
2020
2020Net income -9.7BFree cash flow 22.0MAfter stock-based pay 1.0M
2021
2021
2022Net income 4.9BFree cash flow 2.3BAfter stock-based pay 2.3B
2023Net income 2.4BFree cash flow 551.0MAfter stock-based pay 518.0M
2024Net income -714.0MFree cash flow 8.0MAfter stock-based pay -30.0M
2025Net income 1.8BFree cash flow 1.8BAfter stock-based pay 1.8B
2019201920202020202120212022202320242025
Where 10 years of operating cash went, 2019–2025
15.4B generated by the business. Each band is its share of that total.
Reinvested in the business 59%9.1B
Acquisitions 18%2.8B
Dividends 18%2.9B
Share buybacks 10%1.5B
More than it generated: funded with cash or new debt -5%-814.0M
Over the same years it paid 208.0M in stock. The share count fell 97.8%. 1.3B of the buybacks went beyond offsetting that dilution.
Per share
Earnings per shareFree cash flow per shareDividend per share
$-100.00$-50.00$0.00$50.00
2019
2019Earnings per share $-2.47Dividend per share $0.00
2020
2020Earnings per share $-66.40Free cash flow per share $0.15Dividend per share $0.00
2021
2021
2022Earnings per share $33.82Free cash flow per share $15.77Dividend per share $8.30
2023Earnings per share $16.92Free cash flow per share $3.85Dividend per share $3.41
2024Earnings per share $-4.55Free cash flow per share $0.05Dividend per share $2.47
2025Earnings per share $7.57Free cash flow per share $7.65Dividend per share $3.18
2019201920202020202120212022202320242025
Shares outstanding
Diluted shares
05.0B10.0B15.0B
2019Diluted shares 10.8B
2019Diluted shares 124.9M
2020
2020Diluted shares 146.6M
2021
2021
2022Diluted shares 146.0M
2023Diluted shares 143.0M
2024Diluted shares 157.0M
2025Diluted shares 240.4M
2019201920202020202120212022202320242025
How strong is the balance sheet?
Debt is not bad in itself; debt the business cannot service in a bad year is. Net debt is debt minus cash, and below zero the company holds more cash than it owes.
Net debt
02.5B5.0B7.5B10.0B
2019
2019Net debt 9.5B
2020
2020Net debt 1.6B
2021Net debt 1.3B
2021Net debt 1.4B
2022Net debt 3.0B
2023Net debt 949.0M
2024Net debt 5.4B
2025Net debt 4.4B
2019201920202020202120212022202320242025
Net debt ÷ EBITDA
0.8×
Interest coverage
11× operating income ÷ interest
Current ratio
1.01 current assets ÷ current liabilities
Cash conversion cycle
— collects in 48d
Three classic screens of the accounts
Each asks a different question of the same statements — is it improving, does it look like a company heading for distress, do the accounts resemble ones that were manipulated. None is a verdict; each shows what moves it.
Piotroski F-score
Is the business improving? Nine yes-or-no tests, this year against last.
7of 8 tests passed
✓ProfitableReturn on assets above zeropassed
✓Cash from operationsOperating cash flow above zeropassed
✓Profitability improvedReturn on assets higher than a year beforepassed
✓Profit backed by cashOperating cash flow above net income (low accruals)passed
✓Less long-term debtLong-term debt as a share of assets fellpassed
✓More liquidCurrent ratio higher than a year beforepassed
✕No new sharesShare count did not growfailed
–Better gross marginGross margin higher than a year before — not reportedno data
✓Sells more per assetAsset turnover higher than a year beforepassed
Where it misleads: it measures change, not level. An excellent business that stood still for a year scores low; a poor one recovering from a disaster scores high.
Altman Z''-score
Does the balance sheet look like those of companies that went bankrupt?
3.16safe zone
1.12.6
Working capital ÷ assets 0.00 × 6.56+0.00
Retained earnings ÷ assets 0.17 × 3.26+0.56
Operating income ÷ assets 0.09 × 6.72+0.59
Equity ÷ liabilities 1.91 × 1.05+2.01
Where it misleads: buybacks. A company that returns so much cash that its equity turns small or negative sinks the last two ratios without being anywhere near bankruptcy. Banks and insurers do not fit the model at all.
Beneish M-score
Do the accounts resemble those of companies that manipulated their earnings?
-1.84below the -1.78 line
-1.78
Receivables vs sales 0.46+0.42
Gross margin slipping 1.00 (not reported, set to 1)+0.53
Soft assets 0.62+0.25
Sales growth 2.86+2.55
Slower depreciation 0.61+0.07
Overheads vs sales 0.34-0.06
Profit not in cash -0.10-0.46
Leverage rising 0.93-0.30
Where it misleads: fast growth and acquisitions. Sales growth carries a heavy weight, so a company growing 50% a year scores like a suspect without having done anything. It is a screen from a 1999 study, not an accusation.
Where the statements disagree
Cross-checks between the income statement, the balance sheet and the cash flow for the latest year, each with the benign reading and the worrying one.
None of the six cross-checks fires for the latest year: receivables and inventory move with revenue, profit turns into cash, investment keeps up with depreciation, the tax rate is ordinary and debt is moderate.
What is it worth, under which assumptions?
A company is worth the cash it will generate, brought back to today. This model projects revenue with growth that fades over the years, applies a free cash flow margin, and discounts the result at the cost of capital. Every assumption says where it came from, and all of them can be changed.
Value per share, with these assumptions$86.90discounted at 8.9% a year · 54% of it from after year 10
Type a share price on the left to ask the reverse questions: what growth, what margin or what discount rate that price implies.
What the value implies, in the usual multiples
At this model's value
Price ÷ earnings
11.5×
Enterprise value ÷ EBITDA
4.6×
Enterprise value ÷ revenue
2.1×
Free cash flow yield
8.6%
From cash flows to a value per share
10 years of cash flow, today11.6B
Everything after, today13.7B
The whole business25.3B
Minus net debt-4.4B
What belongs to shareholders20.9B
Divided among 240.4M shares: <strong>$86.90</strong> each.
The projection next to its history
Reported free cash flow after stock pay, then the model's. A projection that looks nothing like the past needs a reason.
ReportedProjected
-1.0B01.0B2.0B3.0B
2019
2019
2020
2020Reported 1.0M
2021
2021
2022Reported 2.3B
2023Reported 518.0M
2024Reported -30.0M
2025Reported 1.8B
2026Projected 1.7B
2027Projected 1.7B
2028Projected 1.7B
2029Projected 1.8B
2030Projected 1.8B
2031Projected 1.8B
2032Projected 1.9B
2033Projected 1.9B
2034Projected 1.9B
2035Projected 2.0B
2019202020212022202420262028203020322034
Year by year
2026
2027
2028
2029
2030
2031
2032
2033
2034
2035
Revenue
12.2B
12.4B
12.6B
12.7B
13.0B
13.2B
13.5B
13.7B
14.1B
14.4B
Growth
1.0%
1.2%
1.3%
1.5%
1.7%
1.8%
2.0%
2.2%
2.3%
2.5%
Cash margin
13.8%
13.8%
13.8%
13.8%
13.8%
13.8%
13.8%
13.8%
13.8%
13.8%
Free cash flow
1.7B
1.7B
1.7B
1.8B
1.8B
1.8B
1.9B
1.9B
1.9B
2.0B
Worth today
1.6B
1.4B
1.3B
1.3B
1.2B
1.1B
1.0B
962.5M
904.6M
851.6M
If the least-known inputs move
Value per share as two inputs change at a time. Neighbouring cells that differ a lot are the conclusion: the value depends on numbers nobody knows to a point.
The discount rate and growth forever
discount ↓ · forever →
1.5%
2.0%
2.5%
3.0%
3.5%
7.9%
90
98
106
117
129
8.4%
82
89
96
104
114
8.9%
76
81
87
94
102
9.4%
70
74
79
85
92
9.9%
64
68
73
78
84
Year-one growth and the final margin
margin ↓ · growth →
-3.0%
-1.0%
1.0%
3.0%
5.0%
11.1%
57
64
71
78
87
12.4%
64
71
79
87
96
13.8%
70
78
87
96
106
15.2%
77
86
95
105
116
16.6%
84
93
103
114
125
All the inputs moving at once
5,000 valuations, each with growth, final margin, discount rate and growth forever drawn at random around the values on the left (spreads of 3.0%, 2.1%, 1.0% and 0.5%). Not a probability — the spreads are assumptions too — but an honest picture of how wide the answer is.
10th percentile$60.85
Median$87.08
90th percentile$127.63
$50.00$100.00$150.00
Half of the simulations land between <b>$71.79</b> and <b>$105.74</b>; one in ten below $60.85, one in ten above $127.63.
Does the long run make sense?
4.9×The terminal value prices the business in year 10 at 4.9 times that year's EBITDA.
17%To grow 2.5% forever while reinvesting 15% of its after-tax operating profit, the business must earn 17% on the new capital — it has earned 11% on average over the last five years.
54%of the value comes from after year 10. The more of it, the more the answer depends on the part nobody can see.
Every Form 4 filed in the last twelve months, read line by line: 6 filings by 6 people. Open-market purchases and sales are counted apart from awards, option exercises and shares withheld for taxes.
Bought on the open market$88,9001 purchase(s) by 1 insider(s)
Sold on the open market—none in the period
Under pre-arranged plans—of the sales followed a 10b5-1 plan set months earlier
A Form 4 says what happened, when, how many shares and at what price. It does not say why: a sale can be diversification, a tax bill or a plan fixed months earlier, and an award is pay, not a purchase. Nothing here is a reason to buy or sell anything.
Which large funds report holding it
From the Form 13F of the 28 institutions followed on this site, as of the end of their last reported quarter. A 13F is filed up to 45 days later and shows only long positions in US-listed shares.
Accounts from the company's own SEC filings; lines some companies do not report are shown as a dash rather than estimated. The risk-free rate is the 10-year US Treasury yield. A DCF is a way of making assumptions explicit, not a forecast: it states what the company would be worth if the assumptions held. The scores are screens that point where to look, not verdicts. Nothing here is a recommendation to buy or sell.
