MCHP · Technology(semiconductors & related devices) · 10 years of annual accounts filed with the SEC · latest fiscal year ended 2026-03-31
Microchip Technology Inc reported revenue of $4.7 billion in fiscal 2026, after growing 1.9% a year over the previous 9 years. Its operating margin narrowed from 23.5% in 2018 to 10.4%, and it earned 3.5% on its invested capital in the latest year. Of the $17.8 billion its operations generated over 10 years, 44.2% went to acquisitions and 30.9% to dividends; the share count rose 9.5%. On the accounting screens, it passes 6 of 9 Piotroski tests, its Altman Z'' of 2.76 is in the safe zone and its Beneish M-score is below the -1.78 line; 3 of the six cross-checks between its statements fire.
Revenue, fiscal 20264.7B+1.9% a year over 9 years
Operating margin10.4%gross margin 57.7%
Return on invested capital3.5%10.0% on average over 5 years
Free cash flow after stock pay615.6M13.1% of revenue
Net debt ÷ EBITDA4.5×net debt 5.3B
Piotroski F-score6/9tests of improvement passed
Share counts are in today's shares. The SEC's filings restate only recent years after a split, so these jumps were read as splits and the older years scaled to match — otherwise per-share figures would compare different units:
2-for-1 before fiscal 2020.
Is it growing?
Revenue and the operating income it turns into. Growth that does not reach operating income is growth bought with margin.
RevenueOperating income
02.5B5.0B7.5B10.0B
2018Revenue 4.0BOperating income 936.3M
2018
2019Revenue 5.3BOperating income 714.3M
2020Revenue 5.3BOperating income 647.1M
2021Revenue 5.4BOperating income 998.1M
2022Revenue 6.8BOperating income 1.8B
2023Revenue 8.4BOperating income 3.1B
2024Revenue 7.6BOperating income 2.6B
2025Revenue 4.4BOperating income 296.3M
2026Revenue 4.7BOperating income 490.1M
2018201820192020202120222023202420252026
Compound growth a year
3 yrs
5 yrs
9 yrs
Revenue
-17.6%
-2.8%
+1.9%
Operating income
-46.0%
-13.3%
-6.9%
Net income
-53.2%
-8.0%
-1.2%
Earnings per share
-52.8%
-8.2%
-2.2%
Free cash flow per share
-34.3%
-13.9%
-4.6%
Dividend per share
+13.1%
+20.3%
+11.5%
Shares
-0.7%
+0.1%
+1.0%
Falling shares are buybacks: each remaining share owns more of the company.
Does it earn more than its capital costs?
Margins say how much of each sale is kept; return on invested capital says how much the business earns on the money it needs to operate. Growth only creates value when that return is above the cost of the capital.
Return on invested capitalCost of capital today · 7.5%
-10.0%0.0%10.0%20.0%
2018Return on invested capital 5.1%
2018
2019Return on invested capital 1.2%
2020Return on invested capital -7.7%
2021Return on invested capital 6.8%
2022Return on invested capital 11.8%
2023Return on invested capital 18.5%
2024Return on invested capital 16.4%
2025Return on invested capital -0.0%
2026Return on invested capital 3.5%
2018201820192020202120222023202420252026
Economic profit
Economic profit
-3.0B-2.0B-1.0B01.0B2.0B
2018Economic profit -151.6M
2018
2019Economic profit -983.6M
2020Economic profit -2.3B
2021Economic profit -98.6M
2022Economic profit 585.6M
2023Economic profit 1.4B
2024Economic profit 1.1B
2025Economic profit -956.5M
2026Economic profit -482.1M
2018201820192020202120222023202420252026
(return on capital − cost of capital) × capital invested: the profit left after paying for the money used. Today's cost of capital is applied to every year, since a past one cannot be rebuilt honestly.
Return on equity
3.6%
Return on assets
1.6%
Asset turnover
0.33×
Research & development
23.0% of revenue
Overheads (SG&A)
14.3% of revenue
Is the profit cash, and where does the cash go?
Net income is an accounting opinion; free cash flow is what was left in the bank after investing. Stock-based pay does not leave the bank — shareholders pay it through dilution — so it is shown taken off as well.
Net incomeFree cash flowAfter stock-based pay
-1.0B01.0B2.0B3.0B4.0B
2018Net income 255.4MFree cash flow 1.2BAfter stock-based pay 1.1B
2018
2019Net income 355.9MFree cash flow 1.4BAfter stock-based pay 1.3B
2020Net income 570.6MFree cash flow 1.5BAfter stock-based pay 1.3B
2021Net income 349.4MFree cash flow 1.8BAfter stock-based pay 1.6B
2022Net income 1.3BFree cash flow 2.5BAfter stock-based pay 2.3B
2023Net income 2.2BFree cash flow 3.1BAfter stock-based pay 3.0B
2024Net income 1.9BFree cash flow 2.6BAfter stock-based pay 2.4B
2025Net income -500,000Free cash flow 772.1MAfter stock-based pay 591.7M
2026Net income 230.0MFree cash flow 871.0MAfter stock-based pay 615.6M
2018201820192020202120222023202420252026
Where 10 years of operating cash went, 2018–2026
17.8B generated by the business. Each band is its share of that total.
Reinvested in the business 11%2.0B
Acquisitions 44%7.9B
Dividends 31%5.5B
Share buybacks 14%2.5B
Kept, or used to pay down debt 0%25.7M
Over the same years it paid 1.6B in stock. The share count rose 9.5%. 828.0M of the buybacks went beyond offsetting that dilution.
Per share
Earnings per shareFree cash flow per shareDividend per share
$-2.00$0.00$2.00$4.00$6.00
2018Earnings per share $0.51Free cash flow per share $2.44Dividend per share $0.68
2018
2019Earnings per share $0.71Free cash flow per share $2.89Dividend per share $0.69
2020Earnings per share $1.11Free cash flow per share $2.88Dividend per share $0.68
2021Earnings per share $0.65Free cash flow per share $3.37Dividend per share $0.72
2022Earnings per share $2.27Free cash flow per share $4.37Dividend per share $0.89
2023Earnings per share $4.02Free cash flow per share $5.62Dividend per share $1.25
2024Earnings per share $3.48Free cash flow per share $4.76Dividend per share $1.66
2025Earnings per share $-0.00Free cash flow per share $1.44Dividend per share $1.82
2026Earnings per share $0.42Free cash flow per share $1.60Dividend per share $1.80
2018201820192020202120222023202420252026
Shares outstanding
Diluted shares
480.0M500.0M520.0M540.0M560.0M580.0M
2018Diluted shares 497.8M
2018
2019Diluted shares 499.8M
2020Diluted shares 512.4M
2021Diluted shares 541.2M
2022Diluted shares 565.9M
2023Diluted shares 557.3M
2024Diluted shares 548.0M
2025Diluted shares 537.3M
2026Diluted shares 545.2M
2018201820192020202120222023202420252026
How strong is the balance sheet?
Debt is not bad in itself; debt the business cannot service in a bad year is. Net debt is debt minus cash, and below zero the company holds more cash than it owes.
Net debt
02.5B5.0B7.5B10.0B
2018Net debt 2.2B
2018
2019Net debt 9.9B
2020Net debt 9.1B
2021Net debt 8.6B
2022Net debt 7.4B
2023Net debt 6.2B
2024Net debt 5.7B
2025Net debt 4.9B
2026Net debt 5.3B
2018201820192020202120222023202420252026
Net debt ÷ EBITDA
4.5×
Interest coverage
2× operating income ÷ interest
Current ratio
2.09 current assets ÷ current liabilities
Cash conversion cycle
221 days collects in 69d, stock 190d, pays in 38d
Three classic screens of the accounts
Each asks a different question of the same statements — is it improving, does it look like a company heading for distress, do the accounts resemble ones that were manipulated. None is a verdict; each shows what moves it.
Piotroski F-score
Is the business improving? Nine yes-or-no tests, this year against last.
6of 9 tests passed
✓ProfitableReturn on assets above zeropassed
✓Cash from operationsOperating cash flow above zeropassed
✓Profitability improvedReturn on assets higher than a year beforepassed
✓Profit backed by cashOperating cash flow above net income (low accruals)passed
✕Less long-term debtLong-term debt as a share of assets fellfailed
✕More liquidCurrent ratio higher than a year beforefailed
✕No new sharesShare count did not growfailed
✓Better gross marginGross margin higher than a year beforepassed
✓Sells more per assetAsset turnover higher than a year beforepassed
Where it misleads: it measures change, not level. An excellent business that stood still for a year scores low; a poor one recovering from a disaster scores high.
Altman Z''-score
Does the balance sheet look like those of companies that went bankrupt?
2.76safe zone
1.12.6
Working capital ÷ assets 0.09 × 6.56+0.57
Retained earnings ÷ assets 0.34 × 3.26+1.12
Operating income ÷ assets 0.03 × 6.72+0.23
Equity ÷ liabilities 0.81 × 1.05+0.85
Where it misleads: buybacks. A company that returns so much cash that its equity turns small or negative sinks the last two ratios without being anywhere near bankruptcy. Banks and insurers do not fit the model at all.
Beneish M-score
Do the accounts resemble those of companies that manipulated their earnings?
-2.48below the -1.78 line
-1.78
Receivables vs sales 1.21+1.11
Gross margin slipping 0.97+0.51
Soft assets 1.04+0.42
Sales growth 1.07+0.96
Slower depreciation 1.01+0.12
Overheads vs sales 1.02-0.18
Profit not in cash -0.05-0.24
Leverage rising 1.05-0.34
Where it misleads: fast growth and acquisitions. Sales growth carries a heavy weight, so a company growing 50% a year scores like a suspect without having done anything. It is a screen from a 1999 study, not an accusation.
Where the statements disagree
Cross-checks between the income statement, the balance sheet and the cash flow for the latest year, each with the benign reading and the worrying one.
Receivables are growing 30% against revenue growing 7%.
Benign
A shift towards larger customers on longer terms, or sales concentrated at the end of the period.
Worrying
Sales are being made on looser credit, or revenue has been booked that may never be collected.
Capital spending (91M) is well below depreciation (689M).
Benign
Mature assets, or a business that has become less capital-intensive.
Worrying
Under-investing: today's profit is being held up by consuming tomorrow's capacity.
Net debt is 4.5 times EBITDA.
Benign
A stable sector with predictable cash flows and comfortable maturities.
Worrying
Little room if earnings fall; the maturity schedule is what to check.
What is it worth, under which assumptions?
A company is worth the cash it will generate, brought back to today. This model projects revenue with growth that fades over the years, applies a free cash flow margin, and discounts the result at the cost of capital. Every assumption says where it came from, and all of them can be changed.
Value per share, with these assumptions$25.26discounted at 7.5% a year · 60% of it from after year 10
Type a share price on the left to ask the reverse questions: what growth, what margin or what discount rate that price implies.
What the value implies, in the usual multiples
At this model's value
Price ÷ earnings
59.9×
Enterprise value ÷ EBITDA
16.1×
Enterprise value ÷ revenue
4.0×
Free cash flow yield
4.5%
From cash flows to a value per share
10 years of cash flow, today7.6B
Everything after, today11.4B
The whole business19.0B
Minus net debt-5.3B
What belongs to shareholders13.8B
Divided among 545.2M shares: <strong>$25.26</strong> each.
The projection next to its history
Reported free cash flow after stock pay, then the model's. A projection that looks nothing like the past needs a reason.
ReportedProjected
01.0B2.0B3.0B
2018Reported 1.1B
2018
2019Reported 1.3B
2020Reported 1.3B
2021Reported 1.6B
2022Reported 2.3B
2023Reported 3.0B
2024Reported 2.4B
2025Reported 591.7M
2026Reported 615.6M
2027Projected 1.1B
2028Projected 1.1B
2029Projected 1.1B
2030Projected 1.1B
2031Projected 1.1B
2032Projected 1.1B
2033Projected 1.1B
2034Projected 1.1B
2035Projected 1.1B
2036Projected 1.1B
2018201920212023202520272029203120332035
Year by year
2027
2028
2029
2030
2031
2032
2033
2034
2035
2036
Revenue
4.6B
4.5B
4.4B
4.3B
4.3B
4.3B
4.3B
4.4B
4.5B
4.6B
Growth
-3.0%
-2.4%
-1.8%
-1.2%
-0.6%
0.1%
0.7%
1.3%
1.9%
2.5%
Cash margin
25.0%
25.0%
25.0%
25.0%
25.0%
25.0%
25.0%
25.0%
25.0%
25.0%
Free cash flow
1.1B
1.1B
1.1B
1.1B
1.1B
1.1B
1.1B
1.1B
1.1B
1.1B
Worth today
1.1B
966.7M
883.3M
812.1M
751.3M
699.3M
654.9M
617.0M
584.8M
557.6M
If the least-known inputs move
Value per share as two inputs change at a time. Neighbouring cells that differ a lot are the conclusion: the value depends on numbers nobody knows to a point.
The discount rate and growth forever
discount ↓ · forever →
1.5%
2.0%
2.5%
3.0%
3.5%
6.5%
26
30
34
39
46
7.0%
23
26
29
33
38
7.5%
21
23
25
28
32
8.0%
18
20
22
25
28
8.5%
16
18
20
22
24
Year-one growth and the final margin
margin ↓ · growth →
-7.0%
-5.0%
-3.0%
-1.0%
1.0%
20.0%
15
17
20
22
25
22.5%
17
20
22
25
29
25.0%
20
22
25
28
32
27.5%
22
25
28
32
35
30.0%
24
27
31
35
39
All the inputs moving at once
4,998 valuations, each with growth, final margin, discount rate and growth forever drawn at random around the values on the left (spreads of 3.0%, 3.8%, 1.0% and 0.5%). Not a probability — the spreads are assumptions too — but an honest picture of how wide the answer is.
10th percentile$15.72
Median$25.35
90th percentile$42.18
$20.00$40.00$60.00
Half of the simulations land between <b>$19.76</b> and <b>$32.82</b>; one in ten below $15.72, one in ten above $42.18.
Does the long run make sense?
20.5×The terminal value prices the business in year 10 at 20.5 times that year's EBITDA.
Free growthIn year 10 free cash flow is at or above after-tax operating profit, yet the model grows 2.5% forever. Growth needs reinvestment; this assumes it comes for free, which flatters the terminal value.
60%of the value comes from after year 10. The more of it, the more the answer depends on the part nobody can see.
Accounts from the company's own SEC filings; lines some companies do not report are shown as a dash rather than estimated. The risk-free rate is the 10-year US Treasury yield. A DCF is a way of making assumptions explicit, not a forecast: it states what the company would be worth if the assumptions held. The scores are screens that point where to look, not verdicts. Nothing here is a recommendation to buy or sell.