JHX · Materials(concrete products, except block & brick) · 4 years of annual accounts filed with the SEC · latest fiscal year ended 2026-03-31
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James Hardie Industries plc reported revenue of $4.8 billion in fiscal 2026. Of the $2.3 billion its operations generated over 4 years, 169.9% went to acquisitions and 54.4% back into the business. On the accounting screens, it passes 3 of 9 Piotroski tests, its Altman Z'' of 1.91 is in the grey zone and its Beneish M-score is below the -1.78 line; 2 of the six cross-checks between its statements fire.
Revenue, fiscal 20264.8B
Operating margin9.3%gross margin 35.8%
Return on invested capital2.1%7.6% on average over 2 years
Free cash flow after stock pay167.9M3.5% of revenue
Net debt ÷ EBITDA4.5×net debt 4.3B
Piotroski F-score3/9tests of improvement passed
Is it growing?
Revenue and the operating income it turns into. Growth that does not reach operating income is growth bought with margin.
RevenueOperating income
02B4B6B
2023
2024Revenue 3.9BOperating income 767.4M
2025Revenue 3.9BOperating income 655.9M
2026Revenue 4.8BOperating income 447.6M
2023202420252026
Does it earn more than its capital costs?
Margins say how much of each sale is kept; return on invested capital says how much the business earns on the money it needs to operate. Growth only creates value when that return is above the cost of the capital.
Return on invested capitalCost of capital today · 7.4%
0%5%10%15%
2023
2024
2025Return on invested capital 13.1%
2026Return on invested capital 2.1%
2023202420252026
Economic profit
Economic profit
-600M-400M-200M0200M
2023
2024
2025Economic profit 187.7M
2026Economic profit -587.2M
2023202420252026
(return on capital − cost of capital) × capital invested: the profit left after paying for the money used. Today's cost of capital is applied to every year, since a past one cannot be rebuilt honestly.
Return on equity
1.6%
Return on assets
0.8%
Asset turnover
0.35×
Research & development
1.3% of revenue
Overheads (SG&A)
19.6% of revenue
Is the profit cash, and where does the cash go?
Net income is an accounting opinion; free cash flow is what was left in the bank after investing. Stock-based pay does not leave the bank — shareholders pay it through dilution — so it is shown taken off as well.
Net incomeFree cash flowAfter stock-based pay
0200M400M600M
2023
2024Net income 510.2MFree cash flow 464.9MAfter stock-based pay 436.7M
2025Net income 424.0MFree cash flow 380.6MAfter stock-based pay 357.6M
2026Net income 104.0MFree cash flow 205.9MAfter stock-based pay 167.9M
2023202420252026
Where 4 years of operating cash went, 2023–2026
2.3B generated by the business. Each band is its share of that total.
Reinvested in the business 54%1.3B
Acquisitions 170%3.9B
Dividends 0%0
Share buybacks 18%421.3M
More than it generated: funded with cash or new debt -143%-3.3B
Over the same years it paid 89.2M in stock. 332.1M of the buybacks went beyond offsetting that dilution.
Per share
Earnings per shareFree cash flow per shareDividend per share
$0.00$0.50$1.00$1.50
2023
2024Earnings per share $1.16Free cash flow per share $1.06
2025Earnings per share $0.98Free cash flow per share $0.88
2026Earnings per share $0.19Free cash flow per share $0.38
2023202420252026
Shares outstanding
Diluted shares
400M450M500M550M
2023
2024Diluted shares 439.6M
2025Diluted shares 432.1M
2026Diluted shares 545.5M
2023202420252026
Debt and liquidity
Debt is not bad in itself; debt the business cannot service in a bad year is. Net debt is debt minus cash, and below zero the company holds more cash than it owes.
Net debt
02B4B6B
2023
2024
2025Net debt 556.8M
2026Net debt 4.3B
2023202420252026
Net debt ÷ EBITDA
4.5×
Interest coverage
2× operating income ÷ interest
Current ratio
1.58 current assets ÷ current liabilities
Cash conversion cycle
—
Three classic screens of the accounts
Each asks a different question of the same statements — is it improving, does it look like a company heading for distress, do the accounts resemble ones that were manipulated. None is a verdict; each shows what moves it.
Piotroski F-score
Is the business improving? Nine yes-or-no tests, this year against last.
3of 9 tests passed
✓ProfitableReturn on assets above zeropassed
✓Cash from operationsOperating cash flow above zeropassed
✕Profitability improvedReturn on assets higher than a year beforefailed
✓Profit backed by cashOperating cash flow above net income (low accruals)passed
✕Less long-term debtLong-term debt as a share of assets fellfailed
✕More liquidCurrent ratio higher than a year beforefailed
✕No new sharesShare count did not growfailed
✕Better gross marginGross margin higher than a year beforefailed
✕Sells more per assetAsset turnover higher than a year beforefailed
Where it misleads: it measures change, not level. An excellent business that stood still for a year scores low; a poor one recovering from a disaster scores high.
Altman Z''-score
Does the balance sheet look like those of companies that went bankrupt?
1.91grey zone
1.12.6
Working capital ÷ assets 0.05 × 6.56+0.32
Retained earnings ÷ assets 0.13 × 3.26+0.44
Operating income ÷ assets 0.03 × 6.72+0.22
Equity ÷ liabilities 0.88 × 1.05+0.93
Where it misleads: buybacks. A company that returns so much cash that its equity turns small or negative sinks the last two ratios without being anywhere near bankruptcy. Banks and insurers do not fit the model at all.
Beneish M-score
Do the accounts resemble those of companies that manipulated their earnings?
-1.91below the -1.78 line
-1.78
Receivables vs sales 1.00 (not reported, set to 1)+0.92
Gross margin slipping 1.09+0.57
Soft assets 2.47+1.00
Sales growth 1.25+1.11
Slower depreciation 0.66+0.08
Overheads vs sales 1.27-0.22
Profit not in cash -0.04-0.17
Leverage rising 1.12-0.37
Where it misleads: fast growth and acquisitions. Sales growth carries a heavy weight, so a company growing 50% a year scores like a suspect without having done anything. It is a screen from a 1999 study, not an accusation.
Where the statements disagree
Cross-checks between the income statement, the balance sheet and the cash flow for the latest year, each with the benign reading and the worrying one.
Inventory is growing 83% against revenue growing 25%.
Benign
Stocking up for a launch, or securing supply.
Worrying
Demand is softening; discounts or write-downs tend to follow.
Net debt is 4.5 times EBITDA.
Benign
A stable sector with predictable cash flows and comfortable maturities.
Worrying
Little room if earnings fall; the maturity schedule is what to check.
What is it worth, under which assumptions?
A company is worth the cash it will generate, brought back to today. This model projects revenue with growth that fades over the years, applies a free cash flow margin, and discounts the result at the cost of capital. Every assumption says where it came from, and all of them can be changed.
Value per share, with these assumptions$1.34discounted at 7.4% a year · 65% of it from after year 10
Type a share price on the left to ask the reverse questions: what growth, what margin or what discount rate that price implies.
What the value implies, in the usual multiples
At this model's value
Price ÷ earnings
7.0×
Enterprise value ÷ EBITDA
5.3×
Enterprise value ÷ revenue
1.0×
Free cash flow yield
23.1%
From cash flows to a value per share
10 years of cash flow, today1.7B
Everything after, today3.3B
The whole business5.0B
Minus net debt-4.3B
What belongs to shareholders728.3M
Divided among 545.5M shares: <strong>$1.34</strong> each.
The projection next to its history
Reported free cash flow after stock pay, then the model's. A projection that looks nothing like the past needs a reason.
ReportedProjected
0200M400M600M
2023
2024Reported 436.7M
2025Reported 357.6M
2026Reported 167.9M
2027Projected 185.1M
2028Projected 203.8M
2029Projected 222.3M
2030Projected 240.5M
2031Projected 257.9M
2032Projected 274.0M
2033Projected 288.7M
2034Projected 301.3M
2035Projected 311.7M
2036Projected 319.5M
2023202520272029203120332035
Year by year
2027
2028
2029
2030
2031
2032
2033
2034
2035
2036
Revenue
5.4B
5.9B
6.4B
7.0B
7.5B
7.9B
8.4B
8.7B
9.0B
9.3B
Growth
11.0%
10.1%
9.1%
8.2%
7.2%
6.3%
5.3%
4.4%
3.4%
2.5%
Cash margin
3.4%
3.4%
3.4%
3.4%
3.4%
3.4%
3.4%
3.4%
3.4%
3.4%
Free cash flow
185.1M
203.8M
222.3M
240.5M
257.9M
274.0M
288.7M
301.3M
311.7M
319.5M
Worth today
172.4M
176.6M
179.4M
180.7M
180.3M
178.4M
175.0M
170.1M
163.8M
156.3M
If the least-known inputs move
Value per share as two inputs change at a time. Neighbouring cells that differ a lot are the conclusion: the value depends on numbers nobody knows to a point.
The discount rate and growth forever
discount ↓ · forever →
1.5%
2.0%
2.5%
3.0%
3.5%
6.4%
2
3
4
5
7
6.9%
1
2
2
4
5
7.4%
-0
1
1
2
3
7.9%
-1
-0
0
1
2
8.4%
-1
-1
-0
0
1
Year-one growth and the final margin
margin ↓ · growth →
7.0%
9.0%
11.0%
13.0%
15.0%
2.8%
-1
-1
-0
0
1
3.1%
-1
-0
1
1
2
3.4%
-0
1
1
2
3
3.8%
1
1
2
3
4
4.1%
1
2
3
4
5
All the inputs moving at once
4,998 valuations, each with growth, final margin, discount rate and growth forever drawn at random around the values on the left (spreads of 3.0%, 2.0%, 1.0% and 0.5%). Not a probability — the spreads are assumptions too — but an honest picture of how wide the answer is.
10th percentile$-4.39
Median$1.33
90th percentile$9.37
$0.00$10.00$20.00
Half of the simulations land between <b>$-1.84</b> and <b>$5.02</b>; one in ten below $-4.39, one in ten above $9.37.
Does the long run make sense?
3.7×The terminal value prices the business in year 10 at 3.7 times that year's EBITDA.
6%To grow 2.5% forever while reinvesting 43% of its after-tax operating profit, the business must earn 6% on the new capital — it has earned 8% on average over the last five years.
65%of the value comes from after year 10. The more of it, the more the answer depends on the part nobody can see.
Every Form 4 filed in the last twelve months, read line by line: 6 filings by 6 people. Open-market purchases and sales are counted apart from awards, option exercises and shares withheld for taxes.
Bought on the open market—none in the period
Sold on the open market—none in the period
Under pre-arranged plans—of the sales followed a 10b5-1 plan set months earlier
A Form 4 says what happened, when, how many shares and at what price. It does not say why: a sale can be diversification, a tax bill or a plan fixed months earlier, and an award is pay, not a purchase. Nothing here is a reason to buy or sell anything.
Which large funds report holding it
From the Form 13F of the 28 institutions followed on this site, as of the end of their last reported quarter. A 13F is filed up to 45 days later and shows only long positions in US-listed shares.
Accounts from the company's own SEC filings; lines some companies do not report are shown as a dash rather than estimated. The risk-free rate is the 10-year US Treasury yield. A DCF is a way of making assumptions explicit, not a forecast: it states what the company would be worth if the assumptions held. The scores are screens that point where to look, not verdicts. Nothing here is a recommendation to buy or sell.
