GPGI · Financials(finance services) · 10 years of annual accounts filed with the SEC · latest fiscal year ended 2025-12-31
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Gpgi, Inc. reported revenue of $59.8 million in fiscal 2025. Of the $549.8 million its operations generated over 10 years, 9.0% went back into the business. On the accounting screens, it passes 3 of 9 Piotroski tests, its Altman Z'' of -0.81 is in the distress zone and its Beneish M-score is below the -1.78 line; 3 of the six cross-checks between its statements fire.
Revenue, fiscal 202559.8M
Operating margin-23.0%gross margin 48.1%
Return on invested capital-6.6%29.4% on average over 5 years
Free cash flow after stock pay-27.4M-45.7% of revenue
Net debt ÷ EBITDANet cash114.6M more cash than debt
Piotroski F-score3/9tests of improvement passed
Share counts are in today's shares. The SEC's filings restate only recent years after a split, so these jumps were read as splits and the older years scaled to match — otherwise per-share figures would compare different units:
1-for-3 before fiscal 2022.
Is it growing?
Revenue and the operating income it turns into. Growth that does not reach operating income is growth bought with margin.
RevenueOperating income
-200.0M0200.0M400.0M600.0M
2018
2019Revenue 243.3MOperating income 86.9M
2020
2020Revenue 260.6MOperating income 84.0M
2021
2021Revenue 267.9MOperating income 81.4M
2022Revenue 378.5MOperating income 114.9M
2023Revenue 390.6MOperating income 119.1M
2024Revenue 420.6MOperating income 107.6M
2025Revenue 59.8MOperating income -13.7M
2018201920202020202120212022202320242025
Compound growth a year
3 yrs
5 yrs
9 yrs
Revenue
-45.9%
—
—
Shares
+50.3%
+34.2%
—
Falling shares are buybacks: each remaining share owns more of the company.
Does it earn more than its capital costs?
Margins say how much of each sale is kept; return on invested capital says how much the business earns on the money it needs to operate. Growth only creates value when that return is above the cost of the capital.
Return on invested capitalCost of capital today · 10.2%
-100.0%0.0%100.0%200.0%300.0%
2018
2019
2020
2020Return on invested capital 193.8%
2021
2021Return on invested capital -12.5%
2022Return on invested capital -20.8%
2023Return on invested capital -24.6%
2024Return on invested capital 211.8%
2025Return on invested capital -6.6%
2018201920202020202120212022202320242025
Economic profit
Economic profit
-100.0M0100.0M200.0M
2018
2019
2020
2020Economic profit 79.6M
2021
2021Economic profit 146.0M
2022Economic profit 165.5M
2023Economic profit 161.8M
2024Economic profit 105.2M
2025Economic profit -40.8M
2018201920202020202120212022202320242025
(return on capital − cost of capital) × capital invested: the profit left after paying for the money used. Today's cost of capital is applied to every year, since a past one cannot be rebuilt honestly.
Return on equity
-55.9%
Return on assets
-26.3%
Asset turnover
0.12×
Research & development
2.2% of revenue
Overheads (SG&A)
71.0% of revenue
Is the profit cash, and where does the cash go?
Net income is an accounting opinion; free cash flow is what was left in the bank after investing. Stock-based pay does not leave the bank — shareholders pay it through dilution — so it is shown taken off as well.
Net incomeFree cash flowAfter stock-based pay
-200.0M-100.0M0100.0M200.0M
2018
2019Net income 81.5MFree cash flow 71.5MAfter stock-based pay 69.9M
2020
2020Net income 77.8MFree cash flow 79.6MAfter stock-based pay 77.7M
2021Net income -70.4M
2021Net income 3.2MFree cash flow 73.0MAfter stock-based pay 66.9M
2022Net income 18.7MFree cash flow 83.7MAfter stock-based pay 72.3M
2023Net income 19.2MFree cash flow 93.4MAfter stock-based pay 75.8M
2024Net income -53.7MFree cash flow 122.1MAfter stock-based pay 100.9M
2025Net income -136.0MFree cash flow -22.9MAfter stock-based pay -27.4M
2018201920202020202120212022202320242025
Where 10 years of operating cash went, 2018–2025
549.8M generated by the business. Each band is its share of that total.
Reinvested in the business 9%49.3M
Acquisitions 0%0
Dividends 2%8.9M
Share buybacks 2%12.2M
Kept, or used to pay down debt 87%479.3M
Over the same years it paid 64.4M in stock. The buybacks did not even cover what was handed out in stock.
Per share
Earnings per shareFree cash flow per shareDividend per share
$-4.00$-2.00$0.00$2.00$4.00
2018
2019
2020
2020
2021Earnings per share $-2.77
2021Earnings per share $0.10Free cash flow per share $2.32
2022Earnings per share $0.57Free cash flow per share $2.57Dividend per share $0.00
2023Earnings per share $0.54Free cash flow per share $2.64Dividend per share $0.00
2024Earnings per share $-1.22Free cash flow per share $2.78Dividend per share $0.20
2025Earnings per share $-1.23Free cash flow per share $-0.21Dividend per share $0.00
2018201920202020202120212022202320242025
Shares outstanding
Diluted shares
25.0M50.0M75.0M100.0M125.0M
2018
2019
2020
2020
2021Diluted shares 25.4M
2021Diluted shares 31.5M
2022Diluted shares 32.6M
2023Diluted shares 35.3M
2024Diluted shares 44.0M
2025Diluted shares 110.5M
2018201920202020202120212022202320242025
How strong is the balance sheet?
Debt is not bad in itself; debt the business cannot service in a bad year is. Net debt is debt minus cash, and below zero the company holds more cash than it owes.
Net debt
-200.0M0200.0M400.0M
2018
2019
2020
2020Net debt 222.5M
2021
2021Net debt 350.6M
2022Net debt 344.4M
2023Net debt 295.3M
2024Net debt 118.2M
2025Net debt -114.6M
2018201920202020202120212022202320242025
Net debt ÷ EBITDA
9.5×
Interest coverage
-8× operating income ÷ interest
Current ratio
6.33 current assets ÷ current liabilities
Cash conversion cycle
-11 days collects in 0d, stock 0d, pays in 11d
Three classic screens of the accounts
Each asks a different question of the same statements — is it improving, does it look like a company heading for distress, do the accounts resemble ones that were manipulated. None is a verdict; each shows what moves it.
Piotroski F-score
Is the business improving? Nine yes-or-no tests, this year against last.
3of 9 tests passed
✕ProfitableReturn on assets above zerofailed
✕Cash from operationsOperating cash flow above zerofailed
✕Profitability improvedReturn on assets higher than a year beforefailed
✓Profit backed by cashOperating cash flow above net income (low accruals)passed
✓Less long-term debtLong-term debt as a share of assets fellpassed
✓More liquidCurrent ratio higher than a year beforepassed
✕No new sharesShare count did not growfailed
✕Better gross marginGross margin higher than a year beforefailed
✕Sells more per assetAsset turnover higher than a year beforefailed
Where it misleads: it measures change, not level. An excellent business that stood still for a year scores low; a poor one recovering from a disaster scores high.
Altman Z''-score
Does the balance sheet look like those of companies that went bankrupt?
-0.81distress zone
1.12.6
Working capital ÷ assets 0.20 × 6.56+1.28
Retained earnings ÷ assets -0.87 × 3.26-2.84
Operating income ÷ assets -0.03 × 6.72-0.18
Equity ÷ liabilities 0.89 × 1.05+0.93
Where it misleads: buybacks. A company that returns so much cash that its equity turns small or negative sinks the last two ratios without being anywhere near bankruptcy. Banks and insurers do not fit the model at all.
Beneish M-score
Do the accounts resemble those of companies that manipulated their earnings?
-5.08below the -1.78 line
-1.78
Receivables vs sales 0.00+0.00
Gross margin slipping 1.08+0.57
Soft assets 1.32+0.53
Sales growth 0.14+0.13
Slower depreciation 0.28+0.03
Overheads vs sales 2.68-0.46
Profit not in cash -0.22-1.02
Leverage rising 0.07-0.02
Where it misleads: fast growth and acquisitions. Sales growth carries a heavy weight, so a company growing 50% a year scores like a suspect without having done anything. It is a screen from a 1999 study, not an accusation.
Where the statements disagree
Cross-checks between the income statement, the balance sheet and the cash flow for the latest year, each with the benign reading and the worrying one.
Capital spending (0M) is well below depreciation (2M).
Benign
Mature assets, or a business that has become less capital-intensive.
Worrying
Under-investing: today's profit is being held up by consuming tomorrow's capacity.
The effective tax rate is -17.3%.
Benign
A favourable geographic mix, or legitimate tax credits.
Worrying
Not sustainable; projecting it forward inflates the valuation.
Net debt is 9.5 times EBITDA.
Benign
A stable sector with predictable cash flows and comfortable maturities.
Worrying
Little room if earnings fall; the maturity schedule is what to check.
What is it worth, under which assumptions?
A company is worth the cash it will generate, brought back to today. This model projects revenue with growth that fades over the years, applies a free cash flow margin, and discounts the result at the cost of capital. Every assumption says where it came from, and all of them can be changed.
Value per share, with these assumptions$2.50discounted at 10.2% a year · 45% of it from after year 10
Type a share price on the left to ask the reverse questions: what growth, what margin or what discount rate that price implies.
What the value implies, in the usual multiples
At this model's value
Price ÷ earnings
—
Enterprise value ÷ EBITDA
—
Enterprise value ÷ revenue
2.7×
Free cash flow yield
-9.9%
From cash flows to a value per share
10 years of cash flow, today88.1M
Everything after, today73.5M
The whole business161.6M
Plus net cash114.6M
What belongs to shareholders276.2M
Divided among 110.5M shares: <strong>$2.50</strong> each.
The projection next to its history
Reported free cash flow after stock pay, then the model's. A projection that looks nothing like the past needs a reason.
ReportedProjected
-50.0M050.0M100.0M150.0M
2018
2019Reported 69.9M
2020
2020Reported 77.7M
2021
2021Reported 66.9M
2022Reported 72.3M
2023Reported 75.8M
2024Reported 100.9M
2025Reported -27.4M
2026Projected 15.7M
2027Projected 15.0M
2028Projected 14.5M
2029Projected 14.1M
2030Projected 13.9M
2031Projected 13.8M
2032Projected 13.8M
2033Projected 13.9M
2034Projected 14.1M
2035Projected 14.5M
2018202020212022202420262028203020322034
Year by year
2026
2027
2028
2029
2030
2031
2032
2033
2034
2035
Revenue
56.8M
54.5M
52.6M
51.3M
50.5M
50.1M
50.1M
50.5M
51.3M
52.6M
Growth
-5.0%
-4.2%
-3.3%
-2.5%
-1.7%
-0.8%
0.0%
0.8%
1.7%
2.5%
Cash margin
27.5%
27.5%
27.5%
27.5%
27.5%
27.5%
27.5%
27.5%
27.5%
27.5%
Free cash flow
15.7M
15.0M
14.5M
14.1M
13.9M
13.8M
13.8M
13.9M
14.1M
14.5M
Worth today
14.2M
12.4M
10.8M
9.6M
8.6M
7.7M
7.0M
6.4M
5.9M
5.5M
If the least-known inputs move
Value per share as two inputs change at a time. Neighbouring cells that differ a lot are the conclusion: the value depends on numbers nobody knows to a point.
The discount rate and growth forever
discount ↓ · forever →
1.5%
2.0%
2.5%
3.0%
3.5%
9.2%
3
3
3
3
3
9.7%
2
3
3
3
3
10.2%
2
2
2
3
3
10.7%
2
2
2
2
3
11.2%
2
2
2
2
2
Year-one growth and the final margin
margin ↓ · growth →
-9.0%
-7.0%
-5.0%
-3.0%
-1.0%
22.0%
2
2
2
2
3
24.8%
2
2
2
3
3
27.5%
2
2
2
3
3
30.3%
2
2
3
3
3
33.1%
2
3
3
3
3
All the inputs moving at once
5,000 valuations, each with growth, final margin, discount rate and growth forever drawn at random around the values on the left (spreads of 3.0%, 4.1%, 1.0% and 0.5%). Not a probability — the spreads are assumptions too — but an honest picture of how wide the answer is.
10th percentile$2.17
Median$2.50
90th percentile$2.98
$2.00$2.50$3.00$3.50
Half of the simulations land between <b>$2.31</b> and <b>$2.72</b>; one in ten below $2.17, one in ten above $2.98.
Does the long run make sense?
45%of the value comes from after year 10. The more of it, the more the answer depends on the part nobody can see.
What lenders charge, after the tax saving on interest: 6.67% × (1 − 0.0%) = <strong>6.67%</strong>.
Weighted by how much of each the company uses (book value (no price given)): <strong>10.17%</strong>, the rate every future cash flow is discounted at.
What it has filed lately
The last twelve months at the SEC, most important first: annual and quarterly reports, events, large holders and insiders.
Every Form 4 filed in the last twelve months, read line by line: 6 filings by 6 people. Open-market purchases and sales are counted apart from awards, option exercises and shares withheld for taxes.
Bought on the open market$994,8681 purchase(s) by 1 insider(s)
Sold on the open market—none in the period
Under pre-arranged plans—of the sales followed a 10b5-1 plan set months earlier
A Form 4 says what happened, when, how many shares and at what price. It does not say why: a sale can be diversification, a tax bill or a plan fixed months earlier, and an award is pay, not a purchase. Nothing here is a reason to buy or sell anything.
Which large funds report holding it
From the Form 13F of the 28 institutions followed on this site, as of the end of their last reported quarter. A 13F is filed up to 45 days later and shows only long positions in US-listed shares.
Accounts from the company's own SEC filings; lines some companies do not report are shown as a dash rather than estimated. The risk-free rate is the 10-year US Treasury yield. A DCF is a way of making assumptions explicit, not a forecast: it states what the company would be worth if the assumptions held. The scores are screens that point where to look, not verdicts. Nothing here is a recommendation to buy or sell.
