DAVE · Financials(finance services) · 7 years of annual accounts filed with the SEC · latest fiscal year ended 2025-12-31
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Dave Inc. reported revenue of $554.2 million in fiscal 2025. Of the $403.5 million its operations generated over 7 years, 11.0% went to buybacks. On the accounting screens, it passes 5 of 8 Piotroski tests and its Altman Z'' of 9.80 is in the safe zone; 1 of the six cross-checks between its statements fires.
Revenue, fiscal 2025554.2M
Operating margin31.6%gross margin —
Return on invested capital41.4%-6.1% on average over 5 years
Free cash flow after stock pay259.8M46.9% of revenue
Net debt ÷ EBITDANet cash80.5M more cash than debt
Piotroski F-score5/8tests of improvement passed
Share counts are in today's shares. The SEC's filings restate only recent years after a split, so these jumps were read as splits and the older years scaled to match — otherwise per-share figures would compare different units:
3-for-1 before fiscal 2022.
Is it growing?
Revenue and the operating income it turns into. Growth that does not reach operating income is growth bought with margin.
RevenueOperating income
-200.0M0200.0M400.0M600.0M
2020
2021
2021Revenue 153.0MOperating income -6.4M
2022Revenue 204.8MOperating income -119.8M
2023Revenue 259.1MOperating income -36.6M
2024Revenue 347.1MOperating income 68.3M
2025Revenue 554.2MOperating income 175.1M
2020202120212022202320242025
Compound growth a year
3 yrs
5 yrs
6 yrs
Revenue
+39.3%
—
—
Shares
+7.7%
—
—
Falling shares are buybacks: each remaining share owns more of the company.
Does it earn more than its capital costs?
Margins say how much of each sale is kept; return on invested capital says how much the business earns on the money it needs to operate. Growth only creates value when that return is above the cost of the capital.
Return on invested capitalCost of capital today · 10.2%
-100.0%-50.0%0.0%50.0%
2020
2021
2021Return on invested capital -8.7%
2022Return on invested capital -66.0%
2023Return on invested capital -22.7%
2024Return on invested capital 25.4%
2025Return on invested capital 41.4%
2020202120212022202320242025
Economic profit
Economic profit
-200.0M-100.0M0100.0M200.0M
2020
2021
2021Economic profit -13.9M
2022Economic profit -138.3M
2023Economic profit -53.2M
2024Economic profit 39.3M
2025Economic profit 110.2M
2020202120212022202320242025
(return on capital − cost of capital) × capital invested: the profit left after paying for the money used. Today's cost of capital is applied to every year, since a past one cannot be rebuilt honestly.
Return on equity
55.5%
Return on assets
40.2%
Asset turnover
1.14×
Is the profit cash, and where does the cash go?
Net income is an accounting opinion; free cash flow is what was left in the bank after investing. Stock-based pay does not leave the bank — shareholders pay it through dilution — so it is shown taken off as well.
Net incomeFree cash flowAfter stock-based pay
-200.0M0200.0M400.0M
2020
2021
2021Net income -20.0MFree cash flow -912,000After stock-based pay -3.0M
2022Net income -128.9MFree cash flow -45.6MAfter stock-based pay -86.2M
2023Net income -48.5MFree cash flow 33.1MAfter stock-based pay 6.4M
2024Net income 57.9MFree cash flow 124.9MAfter stock-based pay 87.6M
2025Net income 195.9MFree cash flow 289.7MAfter stock-based pay 259.8M
2020202120212022202320242025
Where 7 years of operating cash went, 2020–2025
403.5M generated by the business. Each band is its share of that total.
Reinvested in the business 1%2.4M
Acquisitions 0%0
Dividends 0%0
Share buybacks 11%44.3M
Kept, or used to pay down debt 88%356.9M
Over the same years it paid 136.6M in stock. The buybacks did not even cover what was handed out in stock.
Per share
Earnings per shareFree cash flow per shareDividend per share
$-20.00$-10.00$0.00$10.00$20.00$30.00
2020
2021
2021Earnings per share $-1.56Free cash flow per share $-0.07
2022Earnings per share $-11.12Free cash flow per share $-3.94
2023Earnings per share $-4.07Free cash flow per share $2.77
2024Earnings per share $4.19Free cash flow per share $9.03
2025Earnings per share $13.53Free cash flow per share $20.01
2020202120212022202320242025
Shares outstanding
Diluted shares
11.0M12.0M13.0M14.0M15.0M
2020
2021
2021Diluted shares 12.8M
2022Diluted shares 11.6M
2023Diluted shares 11.9M
2024Diluted shares 13.8M
2025Diluted shares 14.5M
2020202120212022202320242025
How strong is the balance sheet?
Debt is not bad in itself; debt the business cannot service in a bad year is. Net debt is debt minus cash, and below zero the company holds more cash than it owes.
Net debt
-100.0M-50.0M050.0M100.0M
2020
2021
2021Net debt 3.0M
2022Net debt 52.1M
2023Net debt 33.2M
2024Net debt 25.3M
2025Net debt -80.5M
2020202120212022202320242025
Net debt ÷ EBITDA
-0.4×
Interest coverage
25× operating income ÷ interest
Current ratio
3.83 current assets ÷ current liabilities
Cash conversion cycle
—
Three classic screens of the accounts
Each asks a different question of the same statements — is it improving, does it look like a company heading for distress, do the accounts resemble ones that were manipulated. None is a verdict; each shows what moves it.
Piotroski F-score
Is the business improving? Nine yes-or-no tests, this year against last.
5of 8 tests passed
✓ProfitableReturn on assets above zeropassed
✓Cash from operationsOperating cash flow above zeropassed
✓Profitability improvedReturn on assets higher than a year beforepassed
✓Profit backed by cashOperating cash flow above net income (low accruals)passed
✓Less long-term debtLong-term debt as a share of assets fellpassed
✕More liquidCurrent ratio higher than a year beforefailed
✕No new sharesShare count did not growfailed
–Better gross marginGross margin higher than a year before — not reportedno data
✕Sells more per assetAsset turnover higher than a year beforefailed
Where it misleads: it measures change, not level. An excellent business that stood still for a year scores low; a poor one recovering from a disaster scores high.
Altman Z''-score
Does the balance sheet look like those of companies that went bankrupt?
9.80safe zone
1.12.6
Working capital ÷ assets 0.66 × 6.56+4.34
Retained earnings ÷ assets 0.09 × 3.26+0.29
Operating income ÷ assets 0.36 × 6.72+2.41
Equity ÷ liabilities 2.62 × 1.05+2.75
Where it misleads: buybacks. A company that returns so much cash that its equity turns small or negative sinks the last two ratios without being anywhere near bankruptcy. Banks and insurers do not fit the model at all.
Beneish M-score
Do the accounts resemble those of companies that manipulated their earnings?
The accounts lack too many of the lines it needs.
Where the statements disagree
Cross-checks between the income statement, the balance sheet and the cash flow for the latest year, each with the benign reading and the worrying one.
Capital spending (0M) is well below depreciation (7M).
Benign
Mature assets, or a business that has become less capital-intensive.
Worrying
Under-investing: today's profit is being held up by consuming tomorrow's capacity.
What is it worth, under which assumptions?
A company is worth the cash it will generate, brought back to today. This model projects revenue with growth that fades over the years, applies a free cash flow margin, and discounts the result at the cost of capital. Every assumption says where it came from, and all of them can be changed.
Value per share, with these assumptions$111.99discounted at 10.2% a year · 56% of it from after year 10
Type a share price on the left to ask the reverse questions: what growth, what margin or what discount rate that price implies.
What the value implies, in the usual multiples
At this model's value
Price ÷ earnings
8.3×
Enterprise value ÷ EBITDA
8.5×
Enterprise value ÷ revenue
2.8×
Free cash flow yield
16.0%
From cash flows to a value per share
10 years of cash flow, today679.2M
Everything after, today862.0M
The whole business1.5B
Plus net cash80.5M
What belongs to shareholders1.6B
Divided among 14.5M shares: <strong>$111.99</strong> each.
The projection next to its history
Reported free cash flow after stock pay, then the model's. A projection that looks nothing like the past needs a reason.
ReportedProjected
-100.0M0100.0M200.0M300.0M
2020
2021
2021Reported -3.0M
2022Reported -86.2M
2023Reported 6.4M
2024Reported 87.6M
2025Reported 259.8M
2026Projected 59.7M
2027Projected 73.2M
2028Projected 87.8M
2029Projected 103.2M
2030Projected 118.7M
2031Projected 133.5M
2032Projected 146.9M
2033Projected 157.9M
2034Projected 165.8M
2035Projected 169.9M
202020212023202520272029203120332035
Year by year
2026
2027
2028
2029
2030
2031
2032
2033
2034
2035
Revenue
692.7M
848.6M
1.0B
1.2B
1.4B
1.5B
1.7B
1.8B
1.9B
2.0B
Growth
25.0%
22.5%
20.0%
17.5%
15.0%
12.5%
10.0%
7.5%
5.0%
2.5%
Cash margin
8.6%
8.6%
8.6%
8.6%
8.6%
8.6%
8.6%
8.6%
8.6%
8.6%
Free cash flow
59.7M
73.2M
87.8M
103.2M
118.7M
133.5M
146.9M
157.9M
165.8M
169.9M
Worth today
54.2M
60.3M
65.7M
70.0M
73.1M
74.7M
74.6M
72.7M
69.3M
64.5M
If the least-known inputs move
Value per share as two inputs change at a time. Neighbouring cells that differ a lot are the conclusion: the value depends on numbers nobody knows to a point.
The discount rate and growth forever
discount ↓ · forever →
1.5%
2.0%
2.5%
3.0%
3.5%
9.2%
116
122
130
139
149
9.7%
108
114
120
128
136
10.2%
101
106
112
118
126
10.7%
96
100
105
110
116
11.2%
90
94
98
103
108
Year-one growth and the final margin
margin ↓ · growth →
21.0%
23.0%
25.0%
27.0%
29.0%
6.9%
82
88
95
102
109
7.8%
90
96
103
111
119
8.6%
97
104
112
120
129
9.5%
104
112
121
130
139
10.3%
112
120
129
139
149
All the inputs moving at once
5,000 valuations, each with growth, final margin, discount rate and growth forever drawn at random around the values on the left (spreads of 3.0%, 2.0%, 1.0% and 0.5%). Not a probability — the spreads are assumptions too — but an honest picture of how wide the answer is.
10th percentile$80.56
Median$112.05
90th percentile$155.59
$100.00$150.00$200.00
Half of the simulations land between <b>$94.49</b> and <b>$132.68</b>; one in ten below $80.56, one in ten above $155.59.
Does the long run make sense?
3.5×The terminal value prices the business in year 10 at 3.5 times that year's EBITDA.
4%To grow 2.5% forever while reinvesting 67% of its after-tax operating profit, the business must earn 4% on the new capital — it has earned -6% on average over the last five years.
56%of the value comes from after year 10. The more of it, the more the answer depends on the part nobody can see.
What lenders charge, after the tax saving on interest: 6.67% × (1 − 16.6%) = <strong>5.56%</strong>.
Weighted by how much of each the company uses (book value (no price given)): <strong>10.17%</strong>, the rate every future cash flow is discounted at.
What it has filed lately
The last twelve months at the SEC, most important first: annual and quarterly reports, events, large holders and insiders.
Every Form 4 filed in the last twelve months, read line by line: 6 filings by 3 people. Open-market purchases and sales are counted apart from awards, option exercises and shares withheld for taxes.
Bought on the open market—none in the period
Sold on the open market—none in the period
Under pre-arranged plans—of the sales followed a 10b5-1 plan set months earlier
A Form 4 says what happened, when, how many shares and at what price. It does not say why: a sale can be diversification, a tax bill or a plan fixed months earlier, and an award is pay, not a purchase. Nothing here is a reason to buy or sell anything.
Companies like this one
Same SEC industry (finance services) first, then the rest of financials.
Accounts from the company's own SEC filings; lines some companies do not report are shown as a dash rather than estimated. The risk-free rate is the 10-year US Treasury yield. A DCF is a way of making assumptions explicit, not a forecast: it states what the company would be worth if the assumptions held. The scores are screens that point where to look, not verdicts. Nothing here is a recommendation to buy or sell.
