GCT · Consumer discretionary(retail-catalog & mail-order houses) · 7 years of annual accounts filed with the SEC · latest fiscal year ended 2025-12-31
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GigaCloud Technology Inc reported revenue of $1.3 billion in fiscal 2025. Of the $540.4 million its operations generated over 7 years, 16.0% went to acquisitions and 5.6% back into the business. On the accounting screens, it passes 4 of 7 Piotroski tests and its Altman Z'' of 4.51 is in the safe zone; none of the six cross-checks between its statements fires.
Revenue, fiscal 20251.3B
Operating margin11.2%gross margin —
Return on invested capital—22.4% on average over 2 years
Free cash flow after stock pay177.8M13.8% of revenue
Net debt ÷ EBITDA—net debt —
Piotroski F-score4/7tests of improvement passed
Is it growing?
Revenue and the operating income it turns into. Growth that does not reach operating income is growth bought with margin.
RevenueOperating income
00.5B1.0B1.5B
2020
2021Revenue 414.2MOperating income 39.4M
2022
2022Revenue 490.1MOperating income 35.0M
2023Revenue 703.8MOperating income 110.1M
2024Revenue 1.2BOperating income 130.6M
2025Revenue 1.3BOperating income 145.0M
2020202120222022202320242025
Compound growth a year
3 yrs
5 yrs
6 yrs
Revenue
+38.1%
+25.5%
—
Operating income
+60.6%
+29.8%
—
Net income
+78.9%
+36.2%
—
Earnings per share
+54.1%
+4.7%
—
Free cash flow per share
+33.6%
+48.7%
—
Shares
+16.1%
+30.1%
—
Falling shares are buybacks: each remaining share owns more of the company.
Does it earn more than its capital costs?
Margins say how much of each sale is kept; return on invested capital says how much the business earns on the money it needs to operate. Growth only creates value when that return is above the cost of the capital.
GrossOperatingNetFree cash flow
0%5%10%15%20%
2020
2021Operating 9.5%Net 7.1%Free cash flow 1.6%
2022
2022Operating 7.1%Net 4.9%Free cash flow 10.0%
2023Operating 15.6%Net 13.4%Free cash flow 18.3%
2024Operating 11.3%Net 10.8%Free cash flow 12.3%
2025Operating 11.2%Net 10.6%Free cash flow 14.2%
2020202120222022202320242025
Return on invested capital
Return on invested capitalCost of capital today · 10.2%
0%10%20%30%40%
2020
2021
2022
2022Return on invested capital 13.8%
2023Return on invested capital 31.0%
2024
2025
2020202120222022202320242025
Economic profit
Economic profit
020M40M60M80M
2020
2021
2022
2022Economic profit 6.9M
2023Economic profit 60.3M
2024
2025
2020202120222022202320242025
(return on capital − cost of capital) × capital invested: the profit left after paying for the money used. Today's cost of capital is applied to every year, since a past one cannot be rebuilt honestly.
Return on equity
28.3%
Return on assets
11.4%
Asset turnover
1.07×
Research & development
0.8% of revenue
Overheads (SG&A)
3.6% of revenue
Is the profit cash, and where does the cash go?
Net income is an accounting opinion; free cash flow is what was left in the bank after investing. Stock-based pay does not leave the bank — shareholders pay it through dilution — so it is shown taken off as well.
Net incomeFree cash flowAfter stock-based pay
-50M050M100M150M200M
2020
2021Net income 29.3MFree cash flow 6.7MAfter stock-based pay -3.0M
2022
2022Net income 24.0MFree cash flow 48.9MAfter stock-based pay 39.8M
2023Net income 94.1MFree cash flow 129.1MAfter stock-based pay 126.6M
2024Net income 125.8MFree cash flow 142.5MAfter stock-based pay 125.7M
2025Net income 137.4MFree cash flow 182.8MAfter stock-based pay 177.8M
2020202120222022202320242025
Where 7 years of operating cash went, 2020–2025
540.4M generated by the business. Each band is its share of that total.
Reinvested in the business 6%30.3M
Acquisitions 16%86.6M
Dividends 0%0
Share buybacks 0%0
Kept, or used to pay down debt 78%423.4M
Over the same years it paid 43.2M in stock.
Per share
Earnings per shareFree cash flow per shareDividend per share
$0$2$4$6
2020
2021Earnings per share $2.85Free cash flow per share $0.66
2022
2022Earnings per share $0.98Free cash flow per share $2.01
2023Earnings per share $2.30Free cash flow per share $3.15
2024Earnings per share $3.05Free cash flow per share $3.46
2025Earnings per share $3.59Free cash flow per share $4.78
2020202120222022202320242025
Shares outstanding
Diluted shares
10M20M30M40M50M
2020
2021Diluted shares 10.2M
2022
2022Diluted shares 24.4M
2023Diluted shares 40.9M
2024Diluted shares 41.2M
2025Diluted shares 38.2M
2020202120222022202320242025
Debt and liquidity
Debt is not bad in itself; debt the business cannot service in a bad year is. Net debt is debt minus cash, and below zero the company holds more cash than it owes.
Net debt
-200M-150M-100M-50M0
2020
2021
2022
2022Net debt -143.3M
2023Net debt -183.3M
2024
2025
2020202120222022202320242025
Net debt ÷ EBITDA
—
Interest coverage
725× operating income ÷ interest
Current ratio
2.02 current assets ÷ current liabilities
Cash conversion cycle
— collects in 19d
Three classic screens of the accounts
Each asks a different question of the same statements — is it improving, does it look like a company heading for distress, do the accounts resemble ones that were manipulated. None is a verdict; each shows what moves it.
Piotroski F-score
Is the business improving? Nine yes-or-no tests, this year against last.
4of 7 tests passed
✓ProfitableReturn on assets above zeropassed
✓Cash from operationsOperating cash flow above zeropassed
✕Profitability improvedReturn on assets higher than a year beforefailed
✓Profit backed by cashOperating cash flow above net income (low accruals)passed
–Less long-term debtLong-term debt as a share of assets fell — not reportedno data
✕More liquidCurrent ratio higher than a year beforefailed
✓No new sharesShare count did not growpassed
–Better gross marginGross margin higher than a year before — not reportedno data
✕Sells more per assetAsset turnover higher than a year beforefailed
Where it misleads: it measures change, not level. An excellent business that stood still for a year scores low; a poor one recovering from a disaster scores high.
Altman Z''-score
Does the balance sheet look like those of companies that went bankrupt?
4.51safe zone
1.12.6
Working capital ÷ assets 0.29 × 6.56+1.90
Retained earnings ÷ assets 0.33 × 3.26+1.09
Operating income ÷ assets 0.12 × 6.72+0.81
Equity ÷ liabilities 0.68 × 1.05+0.71
Where it misleads: buybacks. A company that returns so much cash that its equity turns small or negative sinks the last two ratios without being anywhere near bankruptcy. Banks and insurers do not fit the model at all.
Beneish M-score
Do the accounts resemble those of companies that manipulated their earnings?
The accounts lack too many of the lines it needs.
Where the statements disagree
Cross-checks between the income statement, the balance sheet and the cash flow for the latest year, each with the benign reading and the worrying one.
None of the six cross-checks fires for the latest year: receivables and inventory move with revenue, profit turns into cash, investment keeps up with depreciation, the tax rate is ordinary and debt is moderate.
What is it worth, under which assumptions?
A company is worth the cash it will generate, brought back to today. This model projects revenue with growth that fades over the years, applies a free cash flow margin, and discounts the result at the cost of capital. Every assumption says where it came from, and all of them can be changed.
Value per share, with these assumptions$76.19discounted at 10.2% a year · 56% of it from after year 10
Type a share price on the left to ask the reverse questions: what growth, what margin or what discount rate that price implies.
What the value implies, in the usual multiples
At this model's value
Price ÷ earnings
21.2×
Enterprise value ÷ EBITDA
19.0×
Enterprise value ÷ revenue
2.3×
Free cash flow yield
6.1%
From cash flows to a value per share
10 years of cash flow, today1.3B
Everything after, today1.6B
The whole business2.9B
Minus net debt-0
What belongs to shareholders2.9B
Divided among 38.2M shares: <strong>$76.19</strong> each.
The projection next to its history
Reported free cash flow after stock pay, then the model's. A projection that looks nothing like the past needs a reason.
ReportedProjected
-100M0100M200M300M400M
2020
2021Reported -3.0M
2022
2022Reported 39.8M
2023Reported 126.6M
2024Reported 125.7M
2025Reported 177.8M
2026Projected 114.1M
2027Projected 139.7M
2028Projected 167.7M
2029Projected 197.0M
2030Projected 226.6M
2031Projected 254.9M
2032Projected 280.4M
2033Projected 301.5M
2034Projected 316.5M
2035Projected 324.4M
202020222023202520272029203120332035
Year by year
2026
2027
2028
2029
2030
2031
2032
2033
2034
2035
Revenue
1.6B
2.0B
2.4B
2.8B
3.2B
3.6B
4.0B
4.3B
4.5B
4.6B
Growth
25.0%
22.5%
20.0%
17.5%
15.0%
12.5%
10.0%
7.5%
5.0%
2.5%
Cash margin
7.1%
7.1%
7.1%
7.1%
7.1%
7.1%
7.1%
7.1%
7.1%
7.1%
Free cash flow
114.1M
139.7M
167.7M
197.0M
226.6M
254.9M
280.4M
301.5M
316.5M
324.4M
Worth today
103.5M
115.0M
125.2M
133.4M
139.2M
142.0M
141.7M
138.2M
131.6M
122.4M
If the least-known inputs move
Value per share as two inputs change at a time. Neighbouring cells that differ a lot are the conclusion: the value depends on numbers nobody knows to a point.
The discount rate and growth forever
discount ↓ · forever →
1.5%
2.0%
2.5%
3.0%
3.5%
9.2%
79
84
89
95
102
9.7%
74
78
82
87
93
10.2%
69
72
76
81
86
10.7%
65
68
71
75
79
11.2%
61
63
66
70
74
Year-one growth and the final margin
margin ↓ · growth →
21.0%
23.0%
25.0%
27.0%
29.0%
5.7%
55
59
64
69
74
6.4%
60
65
70
75
81
7.1%
66
71
76
82
88
7.8%
71
76
82
89
96
8.5%
76
82
88
95
103
All the inputs moving at once
5,000 valuations, each with growth, final margin, discount rate and growth forever drawn at random around the values on the left (spreads of 3.0%, 2.0%, 1.0% and 0.5%). Not a probability — the spreads are assumptions too — but an honest picture of how wide the answer is.
10th percentile$50.84
Median$76.15
90th percentile$110.39
$50.00$100.00
Half of the simulations land between <b>$62.20</b> and <b>$92.59</b>; one in ten below $50.84, one in ten above $110.39.
Does the long run make sense?
7.9×The terminal value prices the business in year 10 at 7.9 times that year's EBITDA.
10%To grow 2.5% forever while reinvesting 26% of its after-tax operating profit, the business must earn 10% on the new capital — it has earned 22% on average over the last five years.
56%of the value comes from after year 10. The more of it, the more the answer depends on the part nobody can see.
What lenders charge, after the tax saving on interest: 6.74% × (1 − 14.8%) = <strong>5.74%</strong>.
Weighted by how much of each the company uses (book value (no price given)): <strong>10.24%</strong>, the rate every future cash flow is discounted at.
What it has filed lately
The last twelve months at the SEC, most important first: annual and quarterly reports, events, large holders and insiders.
Every Form 4 filed in the last twelve months, read line by line: 6 filings by 6 people. Open-market purchases and sales are counted apart from awards, option exercises and shares withheld for taxes.
Bought on the open market—none in the period
Sold on the open market$2.8M8 sale(s) by 2 insider(s)
Under pre-arranged plans0%of the sales followed a 10b5-1 plan set months earlier
A Form 4 says what happened, when, how many shares and at what price. It does not say why: a sale can be diversification, a tax bill or a plan fixed months earlier, and an award is pay, not a purchase. Nothing here is a reason to buy or sell anything.
Companies like this one
Same SEC industry (retail-catalog & mail-order houses) first, then the rest of consumer discretionary.
Accounts from the company's own SEC filings; lines some companies do not report are shown as a dash rather than estimated. The risk-free rate is the 10-year US Treasury yield. A DCF is a way of making assumptions explicit, not a forecast: it states what the company would be worth if the assumptions held. The scores are screens that point where to look, not verdicts. Nothing here is a recommendation to buy or sell.
