DD · Materials(plastic materials, synth resins & nonvulcan elastomers) · 10 years of annual accounts filed with the SEC · latest fiscal year ended 2025-12-31
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DuPont de Nemours, Inc. reported revenue of $6.8 billion in fiscal 2025, after shrinking 5.8% a year over the previous 9 years. Its operating margin widened from -13.1% in 2017 to 2.9%, and it earned 0.7% on its invested capital in the latest year. Of the $14.5 billion its operations generated over 10 years, 86.4% went to dividends and 69.8% to buybacks; the share count fell 21.3%. On the accounting screens, it passes 6 of 9 Piotroski tests, its Altman Z'' of -0.66 is in the distress zone and its Beneish M-score is below the -1.78 line; 1 of the six cross-checks between its statements fires.
Revenue, fiscal 20256.8B-5.8% a year over 9 years
Operating margin2.9%gross margin 34.5%
Return on invested capital0.7%1.0% on average over 5 years
Free cash flow after stock pay189.0M2.8% of revenue
Net debt ÷ EBITDANet cash715.0M more cash than debt
Piotroski F-score6/9tests of improvement passed
Is it growing?
Revenue and the operating income it turns into. Growth that does not reach operating income is growth bought with margin.
RevenueOperating income
-10.0B010.0B20.0B30.0B
2017Revenue 11.7BOperating income -1.5B
2018
2018Revenue 22.6BOperating income 600.0M
2019Revenue 15.4BOperating income -126.0M
2020Revenue 11.1BOperating income -1.3B
2021Revenue 12.6BOperating income 1.4B
2022Revenue 13.0BOperating income 1.4B
2023Revenue 6.6BOperating income -279.0M
2024Revenue 6.7BOperating income 117.0M
2025Revenue 6.8BOperating income 200.0M
2017201820182019202020212022202320242025
Compound growth a year
3 yrs
5 yrs
9 yrs
Revenue
-19.3%
-9.3%
-5.8%
Operating income
-48.3%
—
—
Free cash flow per share
—
-32.8%
—
Dividend per share
+2.9%
+3.5%
-15.3%
Shares
-5.7%
-10.6%
-2.6%
Falling shares are buybacks: each remaining share owns more of the company.
Does it earn more than its capital costs?
Margins say how much of each sale is kept; return on invested capital says how much the business earns on the money it needs to operate. Growth only creates value when that return is above the cost of the capital.
Return on invested capitalCost of capital today · 10.2%
-5.0%0.0%5.0%10.0%15.0%
2017Return on invested capital -2.4%
2018
2018Return on invested capital 0.5%
2019Return on invested capital -0.4%
2020Return on invested capital -2.5%
2021Return on invested capital 3.2%
2022Return on invested capital 3.0%
2023Return on invested capital -1.5%
2024Return on invested capital -0.4%
2025Return on invested capital 0.7%
2017201820182019202020212022202320242025
Economic profit
Economic profit
-20.0B-15.0B-10.0B-5.0B0
2017Economic profit -17.0B
2018
2018Economic profit -7.9B
2019Economic profit -3.1B
2020Economic profit -6.9B
2021Economic profit -2.6B
2022Economic profit -2.5B
2023Economic profit -3.8B
2024Economic profit -2.7B
2025Economic profit -1.3B
2017201820182019202020212022202320242025
(return on capital − cost of capital) × capital invested: the profit left after paying for the money used. Today's cost of capital is applied to every year, since a past one cannot be rebuilt honestly.
Return on equity
-5.6%
Return on assets
-3.6%
Asset turnover
0.32×
Research & development
2.8% of revenue
Overheads (SG&A)
14.9% of revenue
Is the profit cash, and where does the cash go?
Net income is an accounting opinion; free cash flow is what was left in the bank after investing. Stock-based pay does not leave the bank — shareholders pay it through dilution — so it is shown taken off as well.
Net incomeFree cash flowAfter stock-based pay
-5.0B-2.5B02.5B5.0B7.5B
2017Net income 1.2BFree cash flow -1.3BAfter stock-based pay -1.3B
2018
2018Net income 3.8BFree cash flow 3.5BAfter stock-based pay 3.4B
2019Net income 498.0MFree cash flow -1.1BAfter stock-based pay -1.1B
2020Net income -3.0BFree cash flow 2.9BAfter stock-based pay 2.8B
2021Net income 6.5BFree cash flow 1.5BAfter stock-based pay 1.4B
2022Net income 5.9BFree cash flow -74.0MAfter stock-based pay -149.0M
2023Net income 423.0MFree cash flow 543.0MAfter stock-based pay 486.0M
2024Net income 703.0MFree cash flow 480.0MAfter stock-based pay 424.0M
2025Net income -779.0MFree cash flow 227.0MAfter stock-based pay 189.0M
2017201820182019202020212022202320242025
Where 10 years of operating cash went, 2017–2025
14.5B generated by the business. Each band is its share of that total.
Reinvested in the business 54%7.8B
Acquisitions 33%4.8B
Dividends 86%12.5B
Share buybacks 70%10.1B
More than it generated: funded with cash or new debt -143%-20.8B
Over the same years it paid 584.0M in stock. The share count fell 21.3%. 9.5B of the buybacks went beyond offsetting that dilution.
Per share
Earnings per shareFree cash flow per shareDividend per share
$-5.00$0.00$5.00$10.00$15.00
2017Earnings per share $2.18Free cash flow per share $-2.47Dividend per share $6.37
2018
2018Earnings per share $4.98Free cash flow per share $4.52Dividend per share $4.52
2019Earnings per share $0.67Free cash flow per share $-1.42Dividend per share $2.16
2020Earnings per share $-4.01Free cash flow per share $3.94Dividend per share $1.20
2021Earnings per share $11.88Free cash flow per share $2.74Dividend per share $1.16
2022Earnings per share $11.75Free cash flow per share $-0.15Dividend per share $1.31
2023Earnings per share $0.94Free cash flow per share $1.21Dividend per share $1.45
2024Earnings per share $1.68Free cash flow per share $1.15Dividend per share $1.51
2025Earnings per share $-1.86Free cash flow per share $0.54Dividend per share $1.42
2017201820182019202020212022202320242025
Shares outstanding
Diluted shares
400.0M500.0M600.0M700.0M800.0M
2017Diluted shares 532.7M
2018
2018Diluted shares 771.8M
2019Diluted shares 746.3M
2020Diluted shares 735.5M
2021Diluted shares 544.2M
2022Diluted shares 499.4M
2023Diluted shares 449.9M
2024Diluted shares 419.2M
2025Diluted shares 419.2M
2017201820182019202020212022202320242025
How strong is the balance sheet?
Debt is not bad in itself; debt the business cannot service in a bad year is. Net debt is debt minus cash, and below zero the company holds more cash than it owes.
Net debt
-40.0B-20.0B020.0B40.0B
2017Net debt 20.6B
2018
2018Net debt -21.2B
2019Net debt -13.3B
2020Net debt 13.1B
2021Net debt 8.8B
2022Net debt 4.8B
2023Net debt 5.5B
2024Net debt 56.0M
2025Net debt -715.0M
2017201820182019202020212022202320242025
Net debt ÷ EBITDA
-0.8×
Interest coverage
— operating income ÷ interest
Current ratio
2.42 current assets ÷ current liabilities
Cash conversion cycle
63 days collects in 48d, stock 95d, pays in 81d
Three classic screens of the accounts
Each asks a different question of the same statements — is it improving, does it look like a company heading for distress, do the accounts resemble ones that were manipulated. None is a verdict; each shows what moves it.
Piotroski F-score
Is the business improving? Nine yes-or-no tests, this year against last.
6of 9 tests passed
✕ProfitableReturn on assets above zerofailed
✓Cash from operationsOperating cash flow above zeropassed
✕Profitability improvedReturn on assets higher than a year beforefailed
✓Profit backed by cashOperating cash flow above net income (low accruals)passed
✓Less long-term debtLong-term debt as a share of assets fellpassed
✕More liquidCurrent ratio higher than a year beforefailed
✓No new sharesShare count did not growpassed
✓Better gross marginGross margin higher than a year beforepassed
✓Sells more per assetAsset turnover higher than a year beforepassed
Where it misleads: it measures change, not level. An excellent business that stood still for a year scores low; a poor one recovering from a disaster scores high.
Altman Z''-score
Does the balance sheet look like those of companies that went bankrupt?
-0.66distress zone
1.12.6
Working capital ÷ assets 0.15 × 6.56+0.99
Retained earnings ÷ assets -1.13 × 3.26-3.67
Operating income ÷ assets 0.01 × 6.72+0.06
Equity ÷ liabilities 1.86 × 1.05+1.96
Where it misleads: buybacks. A company that returns so much cash that its equity turns small or negative sinks the last two ratios without being anywhere near bankruptcy. Banks and insurers do not fit the model at all.
Beneish M-score
Do the accounts resemble those of companies that manipulated their earnings?
-2.56below the -1.78 line
-1.78
Receivables vs sales 1.13+1.04
Gross margin slipping 0.96+0.51
Soft assets 1.00 (not reported, set to 1)+0.40
Sales growth 1.02+0.91
Slower depreciation 1.00 (not reported, set to 1)+0.12
Overheads vs sales 1.02-0.18
Profit not in cash -0.06-0.29
Leverage rising 0.71-0.23
Where it misleads: fast growth and acquisitions. Sales growth carries a heavy weight, so a company growing 50% a year scores like a suspect without having done anything. It is a screen from a 1999 study, not an accusation.
Where the statements disagree
Cross-checks between the income statement, the balance sheet and the cash flow for the latest year, each with the benign reading and the worrying one.
Capital spending (333M) is well below depreciation (647M).
Benign
Mature assets, or a business that has become less capital-intensive.
Worrying
Under-investing: today's profit is being held up by consuming tomorrow's capacity.
What is it worth, under which assumptions?
A company is worth the cash it will generate, brought back to today. This model projects revenue with growth that fades over the years, applies a free cash flow margin, and discounts the result at the cost of capital. Every assumption says where it came from, and all of them can be changed.
Value per share, with these assumptions$9.67discounted at 10.2% a year · 45% of it from after year 10
Type a share price on the left to ask the reverse questions: what growth, what margin or what discount rate that price implies.
What the value implies, in the usual multiples
At this model's value
Price ÷ earnings
—
Enterprise value ÷ EBITDA
3.9×
Enterprise value ÷ revenue
0.5×
Free cash flow yield
4.7%
From cash flows to a value per share
10 years of cash flow, today1.8B
Everything after, today1.5B
The whole business3.3B
Plus net cash715.0M
What belongs to shareholders4.1B
Divided among 419.2M shares: <strong>$9.67</strong> each.
The projection next to its history
Reported free cash flow after stock pay, then the model's. A projection that looks nothing like the past needs a reason.
ReportedProjected
-2.0B02.0B4.0B
2017Reported -1.3B
2018
2018Reported 3.4B
2019Reported -1.1B
2020Reported 2.8B
2021Reported 1.4B
2022Reported -149.0M
2023Reported 486.0M
2024Reported 424.0M
2025Reported 189.0M
2026Projected 323.4M
2027Projected 309.9M
2028Projected 299.6M
2029Projected 292.1M
2030Projected 287.2M
2031Projected 284.8M
2032Projected 284.8M
2033Projected 287.2M
2034Projected 292.0M
2035Projected 299.3M
2017201820202022202420262028203020322034
Year by year
2026
2027
2028
2029
2030
2031
2032
2033
2034
2035
Revenue
6.5B
6.2B
6.0B
5.9B
5.8B
5.7B
5.7B
5.8B
5.9B
6.0B
Growth
-5.0%
-4.2%
-3.3%
-2.5%
-1.7%
-0.8%
0.0%
0.8%
1.7%
2.5%
Cash margin
5.0%
5.0%
5.0%
5.0%
5.0%
5.0%
5.0%
5.0%
5.0%
5.0%
Free cash flow
323.4M
309.9M
299.6M
292.1M
287.2M
284.8M
284.8M
287.2M
292.0M
299.3M
Worth today
293.5M
255.3M
224.0M
198.3M
177.0M
159.3M
144.6M
132.3M
122.1M
113.6M
If the least-known inputs move
Value per share as two inputs change at a time. Neighbouring cells that differ a lot are the conclusion: the value depends on numbers nobody knows to a point.
The discount rate and growth forever
discount ↓ · forever →
1.5%
2.0%
2.5%
3.0%
3.5%
9.2%
10
10
11
11
12
9.7%
9
10
10
11
11
10.2%
9
9
10
10
11
10.7%
9
9
9
10
10
11.2%
8
9
9
9
9
Year-one growth and the final margin
margin ↓ · growth →
-9.0%
-7.0%
-5.0%
-3.0%
-1.0%
4.0%
8
8
9
9
10
4.5%
8
9
9
10
10
5.0%
8
9
10
10
11
5.5%
9
10
10
11
12
6.0%
9
10
11
12
12
All the inputs moving at once
5,000 valuations, each with growth, final margin, discount rate and growth forever drawn at random around the values on the left (spreads of 3.0%, 2.0%, 1.0% and 0.5%). Not a probability — the spreads are assumptions too — but an honest picture of how wide the answer is.
10th percentile$6.60
Median$9.66
90th percentile$13.63
$5.00$10.00$15.00
Half of the simulations land between <b>$7.98</b> and <b>$11.56</b>; one in ten below $6.60, one in ten above $13.63.
Does the long run make sense?
5.4×The terminal value prices the business in year 10 at 5.4 times that year's EBITDA.
Free growthIn year 10 free cash flow is at or above after-tax operating profit, yet the model grows 2.5% forever. Growth needs reinvestment; this assumes it comes for free, which flatters the terminal value.
45%of the value comes from after year 10. The more of it, the more the answer depends on the part nobody can see.
What lenders charge, after the tax saving on interest: 6.67% × (1 − 35.0%) = <strong>4.34%</strong>.
Weighted by how much of each the company uses (book value (no price given)): <strong>10.17%</strong>, the rate every future cash flow is discounted at.
What it has filed lately
The last twelve months at the SEC, most important first: annual and quarterly reports, events, large holders and insiders.
Every Form 4 filed in the last twelve months, read line by line: 6 filings by 6 people. Open-market purchases and sales are counted apart from awards, option exercises and shares withheld for taxes.
Bought on the open market—none in the period
Sold on the open market—none in the period
Under pre-arranged plans—of the sales followed a 10b5-1 plan set months earlier
A Form 4 says what happened, when, how many shares and at what price. It does not say why: a sale can be diversification, a tax bill or a plan fixed months earlier, and an award is pay, not a purchase. Nothing here is a reason to buy or sell anything.
Which large funds report holding it
From the Form 13F of the 28 institutions followed on this site, as of the end of their last reported quarter. A 13F is filed up to 45 days later and shows only long positions in US-listed shares.
Accounts from the company's own SEC filings; lines some companies do not report are shown as a dash rather than estimated. The risk-free rate is the 10-year US Treasury yield. A DCF is a way of making assumptions explicit, not a forecast: it states what the company would be worth if the assumptions held. The scores are screens that point where to look, not verdicts. Nothing here is a recommendation to buy or sell.