DAR · Consumer staples(fats & oils) · 10 years of annual accounts filed with the SEC · latest fiscal year ended 2026-01-03
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Darling Ingredients Inc. reported revenue of $6.1 billion in fiscal 2026, after growing 6.8% a year over the previous 9 years. Its operating margin held steady at about 4.5% from 2016. Of the $6.5 billion its operations generated over 10 years, 52.5% went back into the business and 48.3% to acquisitions; the share count fell 3.1%. On the accounting screens, it passes 7 of 8 Piotroski tests, its Altman Z'' of 2.70 is in the safe zone and its Beneish M-score is below the -1.78 line; none of the six cross-checks between its statements fires.
Revenue, fiscal 20266.1B+6.8% a year over 9 years
Operating margin4.5%gross margin 24.0%
Return on invested capital—
Free cash flow after stock pay657.4M10.7% of revenue
Net debt ÷ EBITDA—net debt —
Piotroski F-score7/8tests of improvement passed
Is it growing?
Revenue and the operating income it turns into. Growth that does not reach operating income is growth bought with margin.
RevenueOperating income
02.0B4.0B6.0B8.0B
2016Revenue 3.4BOperating income 154.7M
2017Revenue 3.7BOperating income 169.4M
2018Revenue 3.4BOperating income 255.0M
2019Revenue 3.4BOperating income 475.8M
2021Revenue 3.6BOperating income 430.9M
2022Revenue 4.7BOperating income 884.5M
2022Revenue 6.5BOperating income 1.0B
2023Revenue 6.8BOperating income 949.7M
2024Revenue 5.7BOperating income 468.2M
2026Revenue 6.1BOperating income 273.4M
2016201720182019202120222022202320242026
Compound growth a year
3 yrs
5 yrs
9 yrs
Revenue
-2.1%
+11.4%
+6.8%
Operating income
-35.7%
-8.7%
+6.5%
Net income
-56.0%
-26.7%
-5.3%
Earnings per share
-55.6%
-26.1%
-5.0%
Free cash flow per share
+18.1%
+15.5%
+18.9%
Shares
-0.8%
-0.9%
-0.3%
Falling shares are buybacks: each remaining share owns more of the company.
Does it earn more than its capital costs?
Margins say how much of each sale is kept; return on invested capital says how much the business earns on the money it needs to operate. Growth only creates value when that return is above the cost of the capital.
Return on invested capitalCost of capital today · 10.2%
0.0%5.0%10.0%15.0%
2016
2017
2018
2019
2021
2022
2022
2023
2024
2026
2016201720182019202120222022202320242026
Economic profit
Needs a cost of capital, which comes from the valuation below.
Return on equity
1.3%
Return on assets
0.6%
Asset turnover
0.60×
Overheads (SG&A)
9.0% of revenue
Is the profit cash, and where does the cash go?
Net income is an accounting opinion; free cash flow is what was left in the bank after investing. Stock-based pay does not leave the bank — shareholders pay it through dilution — so it is shown taken off as well.
Net incomeFree cash flowAfter stock-based pay
-200.0M0200.0M400.0M600.0M800.0M
2016Net income 102.3MFree cash flow 147.5MAfter stock-based pay 137.1M
2017Net income 128.5MFree cash flow 136.3MAfter stock-based pay 118.7M
2018Net income 101.5MFree cash flow 76.7MAfter stock-based pay 57.9M
2019Net income 312.6MFree cash flow 3.1MAfter stock-based pay -17.9M
2021Net income 296.8MFree cash flow 344.5MAfter stock-based pay 321.3M
2022Net income 650.9MFree cash flow 430.3MAfter stock-based pay 408.5M
2022Net income 737.7MFree cash flow 422.4MAfter stock-based pay 397.4M
2023Net income 647.7MFree cash flow 343.8MAfter stock-based pay 310.6M
2024Net income 278.9MFree cash flow 506.8MAfter stock-based pay 485.9M
2026Net income 62.8MFree cash flow 679.2MAfter stock-based pay 657.4M
2016201720182019202120222022202320242026
Where 10 years of operating cash went, 2016–2026
6.5B generated by the business. Each band is its share of that total.
Reinvested in the business 52%3.4B
Acquisitions 48%3.1B
Dividends 0%0
Share buybacks 8%494.4M
More than it generated: funded with cash or new debt -8%-547.7M
Over the same years it paid 213.6M in stock. The share count fell 3.1%. 280.8M of the buybacks went beyond offsetting that dilution.
Per share
Earnings per shareFree cash flow per shareDividend per share
$0.00$2.00$4.00$6.00
2016Earnings per share $0.62Free cash flow per share $0.89
2017Earnings per share $0.77Free cash flow per share $0.82
2018Earnings per share $0.60Free cash flow per share $0.46
2019Earnings per share $1.86Free cash flow per share $0.02
2021Earnings per share $1.78Free cash flow per share $2.06
2022Earnings per share $3.90Free cash flow per share $2.58
2022Earnings per share $4.49Free cash flow per share $2.57
2023Earnings per share $3.99Free cash flow per share $2.12
2024Earnings per share $1.73Free cash flow per share $3.14
2026Earnings per share $0.39Free cash flow per share $4.24
2016201720182019202120222022202320242026
Shares outstanding
Diluted shares
160.0M162.5M165.0M167.5M170.0M
2016Diluted shares 165.2M
2017Diluted shares 166.7M
2018Diluted shares 167.9M
2019Diluted shares 168.4M
2021Diluted shares 167.2M
2022Diluted shares 167.1M
2022Diluted shares 164.1M
2023Diluted shares 162.4M
2024Diluted shares 161.4M
2026Diluted shares 160.2M
2016201720182019202120222022202320242026
How strong is the balance sheet?
Debt is not bad in itself; debt the business cannot service in a bad year is. Net debt is debt minus cash, and below zero the company holds more cash than it owes.
Net debt ÷ EBITDA
—
Interest coverage
1× operating income ÷ interest
Current ratio
1.50 current assets ÷ current liabilities
Cash conversion cycle
—
Three classic screens of the accounts
Each asks a different question of the same statements — is it improving, does it look like a company heading for distress, do the accounts resemble ones that were manipulated. None is a verdict; each shows what moves it.
Piotroski F-score
Is the business improving? Nine yes-or-no tests, this year against last.
7of 8 tests passed
✓ProfitableReturn on assets above zeropassed
✓Cash from operationsOperating cash flow above zeropassed
✕Profitability improvedReturn on assets higher than a year beforefailed
✓Profit backed by cashOperating cash flow above net income (low accruals)passed
–Less long-term debtLong-term debt as a share of assets fell — not reportedno data
✓More liquidCurrent ratio higher than a year beforepassed
✓No new sharesShare count did not growpassed
✓Better gross marginGross margin higher than a year beforepassed
✓Sells more per assetAsset turnover higher than a year beforepassed
Where it misleads: it measures change, not level. An excellent business that stood still for a year scores low; a poor one recovering from a disaster scores high.
Altman Z''-score
Does the balance sheet look like those of companies that went bankrupt?
2.70safe zone
1.12.6
Working capital ÷ assets 0.05 × 6.56+0.33
Retained earnings ÷ assets 0.40 × 3.26+1.29
Operating income ÷ assets 0.03 × 6.72+0.18
Equity ÷ liabilities 0.86 × 1.05+0.91
Where it misleads: buybacks. A company that returns so much cash that its equity turns small or negative sinks the last two ratios without being anywhere near bankruptcy. Banks and insurers do not fit the model at all.
Beneish M-score
Do the accounts resemble those of companies that manipulated their earnings?
-2.91below the -1.78 line
-1.78
Receivables vs sales 1.00 (not reported, set to 1)+0.92
Gross margin slipping 0.93+0.49
Soft assets 0.98+0.40
Sales growth 1.07+0.96
Slower depreciation 1.02+0.12
Overheads vs sales 1.04-0.18
Profit not in cash -0.10-0.45
Leverage rising 0.97-0.32
Where it misleads: fast growth and acquisitions. Sales growth carries a heavy weight, so a company growing 50% a year scores like a suspect without having done anything. It is a screen from a 1999 study, not an accusation.
Where the statements disagree
Cross-checks between the income statement, the balance sheet and the cash flow for the latest year, each with the benign reading and the worrying one.
None of the six cross-checks fires for the latest year: receivables and inventory move with revenue, profit turns into cash, investment keeps up with depreciation, the tax rate is ordinary and debt is moderate.
What is it worth, under which assumptions?
A company is worth the cash it will generate, brought back to today. This model projects revenue with growth that fades over the years, applies a free cash flow margin, and discounts the result at the cost of capital. Every assumption says where it came from, and all of them can be changed.
Value per share, with these assumptions$98.16discounted at 10.2% a year · 52% of it from after year 10
Type a share price on the left to ask the reverse questions: what growth, what margin or what discount rate that price implies.
What the value implies, in the usual multiples
At this model's value
Price ÷ earnings
250.3×
Enterprise value ÷ EBITDA
20.1×
Enterprise value ÷ revenue
2.6×
Free cash flow yield
4.2%
From cash flows to a value per share
10 years of cash flow, today7.6B
Everything after, today8.2B
The whole business15.7B
Minus net debt-0
What belongs to shareholders15.7B
Divided among 160.2M shares: <strong>$98.16</strong> each.
The projection next to its history
Reported free cash flow after stock pay, then the model's. A projection that looks nothing like the past needs a reason.
ReportedProjected
-500.0M0500.0M1.0B1.5B2.0B
2016Reported 137.1M
2017Reported 118.7M
2018Reported 57.9M
2019Reported -17.9M
2021Reported 321.3M
2022Reported 408.5M
2022Reported 397.4M
2023Reported 310.6M
2024Reported 485.9M
2026Reported 657.4M
2027Projected 914.3M
2028Projected 1.0B
2029Projected 1.1B
2030Projected 1.2B
2031Projected 1.3B
2032Projected 1.4B
2033Projected 1.4B
2034Projected 1.5B
2035Projected 1.6B
2036Projected 1.6B
2016201820212022202420272029203120332035
Year by year
2027
2028
2029
2030
2031
2032
2033
2034
2035
2036
Revenue
6.8B
7.6B
8.3B
9.0B
9.7B
10.3B
10.8B
11.3B
11.7B
12.0B
Growth
11.5%
10.5%
9.5%
8.5%
7.5%
6.5%
5.5%
4.5%
3.5%
2.5%
Cash margin
13.4%
13.4%
13.4%
13.4%
13.4%
13.4%
13.4%
13.4%
13.4%
13.4%
Free cash flow
914.3M
1.0B
1.1B
1.2B
1.3B
1.4B
1.4B
1.5B
1.6B
1.6B
Worth today
829.9M
832.4M
827.3M
814.8M
795.0M
768.5M
735.9M
698.1M
655.8M
610.2M
If the least-known inputs move
Value per share as two inputs change at a time. Neighbouring cells that differ a lot are the conclusion: the value depends on numbers nobody knows to a point.
The discount rate and growth forever
discount ↓ · forever →
1.5%
2.0%
2.5%
3.0%
3.5%
9.2%
101
107
114
121
130
9.7%
95
100
105
112
119
10.2%
89
93
98
104
110
10.7%
84
88
92
97
102
11.2%
79
83
86
90
95
Year-one growth and the final margin
margin ↓ · growth →
7.5%
9.5%
11.5%
13.5%
15.5%
10.7%
71
77
83
90
97
12.0%
77
84
91
98
106
13.4%
84
91
98
106
115
14.7%
90
98
106
114
124
16.0%
96
105
113
123
133
All the inputs moving at once
5,000 valuations, each with growth, final margin, discount rate and growth forever drawn at random around the values on the left (spreads of 3.0%, 2.0%, 1.0% and 0.5%). Not a probability — the spreads are assumptions too — but an honest picture of how wide the answer is.
10th percentile$74.90
Median$98.39
90th percentile$132.33
$100.00$150.00
Half of the simulations land between <b>$84.86</b> and <b>$114.04</b>; one in ten below $74.90, one in ten above $132.33.
Does the long run make sense?
14.0×The terminal value prices the business in year 10 at 14.0 times that year's EBITDA.
Free growthIn year 10 free cash flow is at or above after-tax operating profit, yet the model grows 2.5% forever. Growth needs reinvestment; this assumes it comes for free, which flatters the terminal value.
52%of the value comes from after year 10. The more of it, the more the answer depends on the part nobody can see.
What lenders charge, after the tax saving on interest: 6.67% × (1 − 15.3%) = <strong>5.65%</strong>.
Weighted by how much of each the company uses (book value (no price given)): <strong>10.17%</strong>, the rate every future cash flow is discounted at.
What it has filed lately
The last twelve months at the SEC, most important first: annual and quarterly reports, events, large holders and insiders.
Every Form 4 filed in the last twelve months, read line by line: 6 filings by 5 people. Open-market purchases and sales are counted apart from awards, option exercises and shares withheld for taxes.
Bought on the open market—none in the period
Sold on the open market$2.1M8 sale(s) by 5 insider(s)
Under pre-arranged plans0%of the sales followed a 10b5-1 plan set months earlier
Kemphaus Nicholas JamesEVP Gen. Counsel & Secretary
Sold on the open market
1,591
$63.05
$100,313
35,087
A Form 4 says what happened, when, how many shares and at what price. It does not say why: a sale can be diversification, a tax bill or a plan fixed months earlier, and an award is pay, not a purchase. Nothing here is a reason to buy or sell anything.
Which large funds report holding it
From the Form 13F of the 28 institutions followed on this site, as of the end of their last reported quarter. A 13F is filed up to 45 days later and shows only long positions in US-listed shares.
Accounts from the company's own SEC filings; lines some companies do not report are shown as a dash rather than estimated. The risk-free rate is the 10-year US Treasury yield. A DCF is a way of making assumptions explicit, not a forecast: it states what the company would be worth if the assumptions held. The scores are screens that point where to look, not verdicts. Nothing here is a recommendation to buy or sell.