CTRI · Energy(natural gas transmisison & distribution) · 5 years of annual accounts filed with the SEC · latest fiscal year ended 2025-12-28
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Centuri Holdings, Inc. reported revenue of $3.0 billion in fiscal 2025. Of the $498.4 million its operations generated over 5 years, 84.6% went back into the business and 9.2% to acquisitions. On the accounting screens, it passes 6 of 9 Piotroski tests, its Altman Z'' of 1.73 is in the grey zone and its Beneish M-score is below the -1.78 line; none of the six cross-checks between its statements fires.
Revenue, fiscal 20253.0B
Operating margin3.1%gross margin 8.3%
Return on invested capital2.6%3.0% on average over 3 years
Free cash flow after stock pay-16.3M-0.5% of revenue
Net debt ÷ EBITDA3.0×net debt 611.0M
Piotroski F-score6/9tests of improvement passed
Is it growing?
Revenue and the operating income it turns into. Growth that does not reach operating income is growth bought with margin.
RevenueOperating income
-1.0B01.0B2.0B3.0B
2022
2023Revenue 2.8BOperating income -101.4M
2023Revenue 2.9BOperating income -77.6M
2024Revenue 2.6BOperating income 86.8M
2025Revenue 3.0BOperating income 92.8M
20222023202320242025
Compound growth a year
3 yrs
4 yrs
Revenue
+2.6%
—
Shares
+8.0%
—
Falling shares are buybacks: each remaining share owns more of the company.
Does it earn more than its capital costs?
Margins say how much of each sale is kept; return on invested capital says how much the business earns on the money it needs to operate. Growth only creates value when that return is above the cost of the capital.
Return on invested capitalCost of capital today · 7.5%
-10.0%-5.0%0.0%5.0%10.0%15.0%
2022
2023
2023Return on invested capital -5.9%
2024Return on invested capital 12.3%
2025Return on invested capital 2.6%
20222023202320242025
Economic profit
Economic profit
-200.0M-100.0M0100.0M
2022
2023
2023Economic profit -185.0M
2024Economic profit 69.2M
2025Economic profit -79.2M
20222023202320242025
(return on capital − cost of capital) × capital invested: the profit left after paying for the money used. Today's cost of capital is applied to every year, since a past one cannot be rebuilt honestly.
Return on equity
2.6%
Return on assets
0.9%
Asset turnover
1.24×
Overheads (SG&A)
4.2% of revenue
Is the profit cash, and where does the cash go?
Net income is an accounting opinion; free cash flow is what was left in the bank after investing. Stock-based pay does not leave the bank — shareholders pay it through dilution — so it is shown taken off as well.
Net incomeFree cash flowAfter stock-based pay
-200.0M-100.0M0100.0M
2022
2023Net income -168.1MFree cash flow -35.0MAfter stock-based pay -36.6M
2023Net income -186.2MFree cash flow 60.8MAfter stock-based pay 59.0M
2024Net income -6.7MFree cash flow 58.9MAfter stock-based pay 56.7M
2025Net income 22.4MFree cash flow -8.2MAfter stock-based pay -16.3M
20222023202320242025
Where 5 years of operating cash went, 2022–2025
498.4M generated by the business. Each band is its share of that total.
Reinvested in the business 85%421.9M
Acquisitions 9%45.8M
Dividends 3%15.0M
Share buybacks 0%0
Kept, or used to pay down debt 3%15.7M
Over the same years it paid 13.8M in stock.
Per share
Earnings per shareFree cash flow per shareDividend per share
$-3.00$-2.00$-1.00$0.00$1.00
2022
2023Earnings per share $-2.35Free cash flow per share $-0.49Dividend per share $0.21
2023Earnings per share $-2.60Free cash flow per share $0.85Dividend per share $0.00
2024Earnings per share $-0.08Free cash flow per share $0.71Dividend per share $0.00
2025Earnings per share $0.25Free cash flow per share $-0.09
20222023202320242025
Shares outstanding
Diluted shares
70.0M75.0M80.0M85.0M90.0M95.0M
2022
2023Diluted shares 71.7M
2023Diluted shares 71.7M
2024Diluted shares 83.3M
2025Diluted shares 90.3M
20222023202320242025
How strong is the balance sheet?
Debt is not bad in itself; debt the business cannot service in a bad year is. Net debt is debt minus cash, and below zero the company holds more cash than it owes.
Net debt
0500.0M1.0B1.5B
2022
2023
2023Net debt 1.1B
2024Net debt 824.9M
2025Net debt 611.0M
20222023202320242025
Net debt ÷ EBITDA
3.0×
Interest coverage
— operating income ÷ interest
Current ratio
1.78 current assets ÷ current liabilities
Cash conversion cycle
— collects in 39d
Three classic screens of the accounts
Each asks a different question of the same statements — is it improving, does it look like a company heading for distress, do the accounts resemble ones that were manipulated. None is a verdict; each shows what moves it.
Piotroski F-score
Is the business improving? Nine yes-or-no tests, this year against last.
6of 9 tests passed
✓ProfitableReturn on assets above zeropassed
✓Cash from operationsOperating cash flow above zeropassed
✓Profitability improvedReturn on assets higher than a year beforepassed
✓Profit backed by cashOperating cash flow above net income (low accruals)passed
✓Less long-term debtLong-term debt as a share of assets fellpassed
✓More liquidCurrent ratio higher than a year beforepassed
✕No new sharesShare count did not growfailed
✕Better gross marginGross margin higher than a year beforefailed
✕Sells more per assetAsset turnover higher than a year beforefailed
Where it misleads: it measures change, not level. An excellent business that stood still for a year scores low; a poor one recovering from a disaster scores high.
Altman Z''-score
Does the balance sheet look like those of companies that went bankrupt?
1.73grey zone
1.12.6
Working capital ÷ assets 0.16 × 6.56+1.05
Retained earnings ÷ assets -0.05 × 3.26-0.17
Operating income ÷ assets 0.04 × 6.72+0.26
Equity ÷ liabilities 0.57 × 1.05+0.60
Where it misleads: buybacks. A company that returns so much cash that its equity turns small or negative sinks the last two ratios without being anywhere near bankruptcy. Banks and insurers do not fit the model at all.
Beneish M-score
Do the accounts resemble those of companies that manipulated their earnings?
-2.46below the -1.78 line
-1.78
Receivables vs sales 0.99+0.91
Gross margin slipping 1.01+0.53
Soft assets 0.95+0.38
Sales growth 1.13+1.01
Slower depreciation 0.91+0.10
Overheads vs sales 1.04-0.18
Profit not in cash -0.02-0.11
Leverage rising 0.85-0.28
Where it misleads: fast growth and acquisitions. Sales growth carries a heavy weight, so a company growing 50% a year scores like a suspect without having done anything. It is a screen from a 1999 study, not an accusation.
Where the statements disagree
Cross-checks between the income statement, the balance sheet and the cash flow for the latest year, each with the benign reading and the worrying one.
None of the six cross-checks fires for the latest year: receivables and inventory move with revenue, profit turns into cash, investment keeps up with depreciation, the tax rate is ordinary and debt is moderate.
What is it worth, under which assumptions?
A company is worth the cash it will generate, brought back to today. This model projects revenue with growth that fades over the years, applies a free cash flow margin, and discounts the result at the cost of capital. Every assumption says where it came from, and all of them can be changed.
Value per share, with these assumptions$15.53discounted at 7.5% a year · 62% of it from after year 10
Type a share price on the left to ask the reverse questions: what growth, what margin or what discount rate that price implies.
What the value implies, in the usual multiples
At this model's value
Price ÷ earnings
62.6×
Enterprise value ÷ EBITDA
9.9×
Enterprise value ÷ revenue
0.7×
Free cash flow yield
-1.2%
From cash flows to a value per share
10 years of cash flow, today762.8M
Everything after, today1.3B
The whole business2.0B
Minus net debt-611.0M
What belongs to shareholders1.4B
Divided among 90.3M shares: <strong>$15.53</strong> each.
The projection next to its history
Reported free cash flow after stock pay, then the model's. A projection that looks nothing like the past needs a reason.
ReportedProjected
-50.0M050.0M100.0M150.0M
2022
2023Reported -36.6M
2023Reported 59.0M
2024Reported 56.7M
2025Reported -16.3M
2026Projected 100.6M
2027Projected 103.2M
2028Projected 105.7M
2029Projected 108.4M
2030Projected 111.1M
2031Projected 113.9M
2032Projected 116.7M
2033Projected 119.6M
2034Projected 122.6M
2035Projected 125.7M
20222023202520272029203120332035
Year by year
2026
2027
2028
2029
2030
2031
2032
2033
2034
2035
Revenue
3.1B
3.1B
3.2B
3.3B
3.4B
3.5B
3.5B
3.6B
3.7B
3.8B
Growth
2.5%
2.5%
2.5%
2.5%
2.5%
2.5%
2.5%
2.5%
2.5%
2.5%
Cash margin
3.3%
3.3%
3.3%
3.3%
3.3%
3.3%
3.3%
3.3%
3.3%
3.3%
Free cash flow
100.6M
103.2M
105.7M
108.4M
111.1M
113.9M
116.7M
119.6M
122.6M
125.7M
Worth today
93.6M
89.3M
85.1M
81.2M
77.4M
73.8M
70.4M
67.1M
64.0M
61.0M
If the least-known inputs move
Value per share as two inputs change at a time. Neighbouring cells that differ a lot are the conclusion: the value depends on numbers nobody knows to a point.
The discount rate and growth forever
discount ↓ · forever →
1.5%
2.0%
2.5%
3.0%
3.5%
6.5%
16
18
21
25
29
7.0%
14
16
18
21
24
7.5%
12
14
16
18
20
8.0%
11
12
13
15
17
8.5%
10
11
12
13
15
Year-one growth and the final margin
margin ↓ · growth →
-1.5%
0.5%
2.5%
4.5%
6.5%
2.6%
9
10
12
14
15
3.0%
10
12
14
16
17
3.3%
12
14
16
18
20
3.6%
13
15
17
20
22
4.0%
15
17
19
22
24
All the inputs moving at once
4,998 valuations, each with growth, final margin, discount rate and growth forever drawn at random around the values on the left (spreads of 3.0%, 2.0%, 1.0% and 0.5%). Not a probability — the spreads are assumptions too — but an honest picture of how wide the answer is.
10th percentile$1.41
Median$15.47
90th percentile$34.94
$0.00$20.00$40.00$60.00
Half of the simulations land between <b>$7.71</b> and <b>$24.42</b>; one in ten below $1.41, one in ten above $34.94.
Does the long run make sense?
9.9×The terminal value prices the business in year 10 at 9.9 times that year's EBITDA.
Free growthIn year 10 free cash flow is at or above after-tax operating profit, yet the model grows 2.5% forever. Growth needs reinvestment; this assumes it comes for free, which flatters the terminal value.
62%of the value comes from after year 10. The more of it, the more the answer depends on the part nobody can see.
Every Form 4 filed in the last twelve months, read line by line: 6 filings by 6 people. Open-market purchases and sales are counted apart from awards, option exercises and shares withheld for taxes.
Bought on the open market$100,2041 purchase(s) by 1 insider(s)
Sold on the open market—none in the period
Under pre-arranged plans—of the sales followed a 10b5-1 plan set months earlier
A Form 4 says what happened, when, how many shares and at what price. It does not say why: a sale can be diversification, a tax bill or a plan fixed months earlier, and an award is pay, not a purchase. Nothing here is a reason to buy or sell anything.
Which large funds report holding it
From the Form 13F of the 28 institutions followed on this site, as of the end of their last reported quarter. A 13F is filed up to 45 days later and shows only long positions in US-listed shares.
Accounts from the company's own SEC filings; lines some companies do not report are shown as a dash rather than estimated. The risk-free rate is the 10-year US Treasury yield. A DCF is a way of making assumptions explicit, not a forecast: it states what the company would be worth if the assumptions held. The scores are screens that point where to look, not verdicts. Nothing here is a recommendation to buy or sell.
