Phillips 66

PSX · Energy (petroleum refining) · 10 years of annual accounts filed with the SEC · latest fiscal year ended 2025-12-31

Phillips 66 reported revenue of $132.4 billion in fiscal 2025, after growing 5.1% a year over the previous 9 years. Of the $54.1 billion its operations generated over 10 years, 36.1% went to buybacks and 30.2% to dividends; the share count fell 23.0%. On the accounting screens, it passes 8 of 9 Piotroski tests and its Beneish M-score is below the -1.78 line; 1 of the six cross-checks between its statements fires.

Revenue, fiscal 2025 132.4B +5.1% a year over 9 years

Operating margin — gross margin 12.3%

Return on invested capital —

Free cash flow —

Net debt ÷ EBITDA Net cash 78.0M more cash than debt

Piotroski F-score 8/9 tests of improvement passed

Is it growing?

Revenue and the operating income it turns into. Growth that does not reach operating income is growth bought with margin.

RevenueOperating income

Compound growth a year
	3 yrs	5 yrs	9 yrs
Revenue	-8.0%	+15.6%	+5.1%
Net income	-26.4%	—	+12.3%
Earnings per share	-22.6%	—	+15.6%
Dividend per share	+7.6%	+5.6%	+7.7%
Shares	-4.9%	-1.5%	-2.9%

Falling shares are buybacks: each remaining share owns more of the company.

Does it earn more than its capital costs?

Margins say how much of each sale is kept; return on invested capital says how much the business earns on the money it needs to operate. Growth only creates value when that return is above the cost of the capital.

    GrossOperatingNetFree cash flow
    
  

Return on invested capital

Economic profit

Needs a cost of capital, which comes from the valuation below.

Return on equity: 15.1%
Return on assets: 6.0%
Asset turnover: 1.80×
Research & development: 0.0% of revenue
Overheads (SG&A): 1.8% of revenue

Is the profit cash, and where does the cash go?

Net income is an accounting opinion; free cash flow is what was left in the bank after investing. Stock-based pay does not leave the bank — shareholders pay it through dilution — so it is shown taken off as well.

Net incomeFree cash flowAfter stock-based pay

Where 10 years of operating cash went, 2016–2025

54.1B generated by the business. Each band is its share of that total.

Reinvested in the business 0% 0
Acquisitions 9% 4.7B
Dividends 30% 16.3B
Share buybacks 36% 19.6B
Kept, or used to pay down debt 25% 13.5B

Over the same years it paid 1.8B in stock. The share count fell 23.0%. 17.8B of the buybacks went beyond offsetting that dilution.

Per share

    Earnings per shareFree cash flow per shareDividend per share
    
  

Shares outstanding

Diluted shares

How strong is the balance sheet?

Debt is not bad in itself; debt the business cannot service in a bad year is. Net debt is debt minus cash, and below zero the company holds more cash than it owes.

Net debt

Net debt ÷ EBITDA: —
Interest coverage: — operating income ÷ interest
Current ratio: 1.30 current assets ÷ current liabilities
Cash conversion cycle: — collects in 27d

Three classic screens of the accounts

Each asks a different question of the same statements — is it improving, does it look like a company heading for distress, do the accounts resemble ones that were manipulated. None is a verdict; each shows what moves it.

Piotroski F-score

Is the business improving? Nine yes-or-no tests, this year against last.

8of 9 tests passed

ProfitableReturn on assets above zero passed
Cash from operationsOperating cash flow above zero passed
Profitability improvedReturn on assets higher than a year before passed
Profit backed by cashOperating cash flow above net income (low accruals) passed
Less long-term debtLong-term debt as a share of assets fell passed
More liquidCurrent ratio higher than a year before passed
No new sharesShare count did not grow passed
Better gross marginGross margin higher than a year before passed
Sells more per assetAsset turnover higher than a year before failed

Where it misleads: it measures change, not level. An excellent business that stood still for a year scores low; a poor one recovering from a disaster scores high.

Altman Z''-score

Does the balance sheet look like those of companies that went bankrupt?

The accounts lack a line it needs (retained earnings, current assets or liabilities).

Beneish M-score

Do the accounts resemble those of companies that manipulated their earnings?

-2.70below the -1.78 line

Receivables vs sales 0.96+0.88
Gross margin slipping 0.75+0.40
Soft assets 1.00 (not reported, set to 1)+0.40
Sales growth 0.92+0.82
Slower depreciation 1.00 (not reported, set to 1)+0.12
Overheads vs sales 0.94-0.16
Profit not in cash -0.01-0.04
Leverage rising 0.87-0.28

Where it misleads: fast growth and acquisitions. Sales growth carries a heavy weight, so a company growing 50% a year scores like a suspect without having done anything. It is a screen from a 1999 study, not an accusation.

Where the statements disagree

Cross-checks between the income statement, the balance sheet and the cash flow for the latest year, each with the benign reading and the worrying one.

Inventory is growing 28% against revenue growing -8%.

Benign

Stocking up for a launch, or securing supply.

Worrying

Demand is softening; discounts or write-downs tend to follow.

What is it worth, under which assumptions?

A company is worth the cash it will generate, brought back to today. This model projects revenue with growth that fades over the years, applies a free cash flow margin, and discounts the result at the cost of capital. Every assumption says where it came from, and all of them can be changed.

Revenue

Starting revenue

M $

revenue of fiscal 2025

Growth in year one

revenue grew +15.6% a year over the last 5 years; it fades to the terminal rate by the last year

Years until it settles

yrs

ten years for growth to fade to the terminal rate

Cash from each sale

Free cash flow margin today

no cash flow lines to measure it

Margin in the last year

the margin in year ten; by default the business keeps today's

Count stock-based pay as a costIt is paid in shares instead of cash, and shareholders bear it through dilution. Most free cash flow figures leave it out.

The long run

Growth after that, forever

growth forever after year ten, below the risk-free rate: no company outgrows the economy forever

The discount rate

Risk-free rate

10-year US Treasury yield (FRED, DGS10), 2026-09-24

Beta

not measured on this public page, which uses only public filings: 1.0 assumes it moves like the market. Sign in to measure it from prices

Equity risk premium

the extra return demanded for holding shares; it cannot be measured, and 4–6% is the common range

Cost of debt, before tax

interest expense ÷ debt = 96.1%, kept between the risk-free rate and +8 points

Tax rate

no tax line: the US federal rate, 21%

The price

Share price

Type the price you see at your broker. It is used only for the reverse questions: what that price implies.

Back to the defaults

SEC from the filings Treasury the 10-year yield measured from prices assumption cannot be measured yours you changed it

The SEC accounts lack the lines needed for revenue, free cash flow or the share count, so there is no DCF for this company.

What it has filed lately

The last twelve months at the SEC, most important first: annual and quarterly reports, events, large holders and insiders.

Event 2026-08-21

Signed a material agreement; took on a financial obligation

Published the results of a shareholder vote

Signed a material agreement; took on a financial obligation

Estimatein 31d

Results for the period ending 2026-09-29

Companies like this one

Same SEC industry (petroleum refining) first, then the rest of energy.

CVX Chevron Corp COP Conocophillips MPC Marathon Petroleum Corp VLO Valero Energy Corp WMB Williams Companies, Inc.EPD Enterprise Products Partners L.P.SLB SLB Limited EOG EOG Resources Inc

Every figure, year by year

10 fiscal years · 30 measures

	2016	2017	2018	2019	2020	2021	2022	2023	2024	2025
Size
Revenue	84.3B	102.4B	111.5B	107.3B	64.1B	111.5B	170.0B	147.4B	143.2B	132.4B
Revenue growth	—	+21.4%	+8.9%	-3.7%	-40.2%	+73.8%	+52.5%	-13.3%	-2.9%	-7.5%
Operating income	2.2B	3.6B	7.9B	4.7B	-4.4B	—	—	—	—	—
Net income	1.6B	5.1B	5.6B	3.1B	-4.0B	1.3B	11.0B	7.0B	2.1B	4.4B
Margins
Gross margin	25.9%	22.4%	12.1%	11.0%	10.0%	8.4%	11.8%	13.1%	9.2%	12.3%
Operating margin	2.6%	3.5%	7.1%	4.4%	-6.9%	—	—	—	—	—
Net margin	1.8%	5.0%	5.0%	2.9%	-6.2%	1.2%	6.5%	4.8%	1.5%	3.3%
Free cash flow margin	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
R&D ÷ revenue	0.1%	0.1%	0.0%	0.1%	0.1%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
SG&A ÷ revenue	1.9%	1.7%	1.5%	1.6%	2.4%	1.6%	1.3%	1.7%	2.0%	1.8%
Cash
Free cash flow	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
Stock-based pay	156.0M	142.0M	100.0M	169.0M	127.0M	144.0M	210.0M	297.0M	210.0M	220.0M
Free cash flow after stock pay	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
Free cash flow to the firm	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
Free cash flow ÷ net income	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
Capex ÷ revenue	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
Returns
Return on invested capital	7.0%	7.4%	25.3%	14.9%	-27.7%	—	—	—	—	—
Return on equity	6.9%	20.4%	22.7%	12.3%	-20.9%	6.9%	37.4%	22.9%	7.7%	15.1%
Return on assets	3.0%	9.4%	10.3%	5.2%	-7.3%	2.4%	14.4%	9.3%	2.9%	6.0%
Asset turnover	1.6×	1.9×	2.1×	1.8×	1.2×	2.0×	2.2×	2.0×	2.0×	1.8×
Economic profit	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
Per share
Earnings per share	$2.93	$9.85	$11.80	$6.78	$-9.04	$2.99	$23.27	$15.48	$5.02	$10.79
Free cash flow per share	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
Dividend per share	$2.42	$2.69	$3.03	$3.46	$3.58	$3.60	$3.78	$4.15	$4.46	$4.71
Payout ratio	82.4%	27.3%	25.7%	51.0%	—	120.3%	16.3%	26.8%	88.9%	43.7%
Book value per share	$42.24	$48.38	$52.01	$54.88	$43.19	$43.52	$62.26	$67.48	$64.97	$71.30
Diluted shares	530.1M	518.5M	474.0M	453.9M	439.5M	440.4M	473.7M	453.2M	421.9M	408.1M
Balance sheet
Net debt	-1.7B	-3.1B	-3.0B	-1.1B	-1.5B	-1.7B	-5.6B	-1.8B	93.0M	-78.0M
Net debt ÷ EBITDA	-0.5×	-0.6×	-0.3×	-0.2×	0.5×	—	—	—	—	—
Interest coverage	—	—	16.1×	9.3×	-8.0×	—	—	—	—	—
Current ratio	1.3×	1.4×	1.5×	1.2×	1.4×	1.1×	1.4×	1.3×	1.2×	1.3×
Cash conversion cycle (days)	—	9	11	13	29	9	5	—	—	—
Scores
Piotroski F-score	—	7	7	4	4	5	7	5	5	8
Altman Z''	2.33	2.91	3.68	2.90	1.49	—	—	—	—	—
Beneish M	—	-2.08	-2.28	-2.27	-3.10	-2.48	-2.12	-2.50	-2.47	-2.70

Accounts from the company's own SEC filings; lines some companies do not report are shown as a dash rather than estimated. The risk-free rate is the 10-year US Treasury yield. A DCF is a way of making assumptions explicit, not a forecast: it states what the company would be worth if the assumptions held. The scores are screens that point where to look, not verdicts. Nothing here is a recommendation to buy or sell.