SphinxRisk

Enterprise Products Partners L.P.

EPD · Energy (natural gas transmission) · 10 years of annual accounts filed with the SEC · latest fiscal year ended 2025-12-31

Enterprise Products Partners L.P. reported revenue of $52.6 billion in fiscal 2025, after growing 9.6% a year over the previous 9 years. Its operating margin narrowed from 15.6% in 2016 to 13.8%. Of the $68.1 billion its operations generated over 10 years, 52.5% went back into the business and 8.1% to acquisitions; the share count rose 4.7%. On the accounting screens, it passes 6 of 9 Piotroski tests and its Beneish M-score is below the -1.78 line; 2 of the six cross-checks between its statements fire.

Revenue, fiscal 2025 52.6B +9.6% a year over 9 years
Operating margin 13.8% gross margin 26.7%
Return on invested capital —  
Free cash flow after stock pay 2.8B 5.3% of revenue
Net debt ÷ EBITDA 3.6× net debt 33.4B
Piotroski F-score 6/9 tests of improvement passed

Is it growing?

Revenue and the operating income it turns into. Growth that does not reach operating income is growth bought with margin.

RevenueOperating income
Compound growth a year
3 yrs5 yrs9 yrs
Revenue-3.3%+14.1%+9.6%
Operating income+1.7%+7.6%+8.2%
Net income+1.9%+9.0%+9.8%
Earnings per share+2.1%+9.1%+9.2%
Free cash flow per share-21.1%+2.8%+11.3%
Shares-0.2%-0.1%+0.5%

Falling shares are buybacks: each remaining share owns more of the company.

Does it earn more than its capital costs?

Margins say how much of each sale is kept; return on invested capital says how much the business earns on the money it needs to operate. Growth only creates value when that return is above the cost of the capital.

GrossOperatingNetFree cash flow

Return on invested capital

Return on invested capital Cost of capital today · 5.2%

Economic profit

Needs a cost of capital, which comes from the valuation below.

Return on equity
—
Return on assets
7.5%
Asset turnover
0.68×
Overheads (SG&A)
0.5% of revenue

Is the profit cash, and where does the cash go?

Net income is an accounting opinion; free cash flow is what was left in the bank after investing. Stock-based pay does not leave the bank — shareholders pay it through dilution — so it is shown taken off as well.

Net incomeFree cash flowAfter stock-based pay

Where 10 years of operating cash went, 2016–2025

68.1B generated by the business. Each band is its share of that total.

  • Reinvested in the business 52% 35.7B
  • Acquisitions 8% 5.5B
  • Dividends 0% 0
  • Share buybacks 2% 1.5B
  • Kept, or used to pay down debt 37% 25.4B

Over the same years it paid 1.5B in stock. The share count rose 4.7%. 5.0M of the buybacks went beyond offsetting that dilution.

Per share

Earnings per shareFree cash flow per shareDividend per share

Shares outstanding

Diluted shares

How strong is the balance sheet?

Debt is not bad in itself; debt the business cannot service in a bad year is. Net debt is debt minus cash, and below zero the company holds more cash than it owes.

Net debt
Net debt ÷ EBITDA
3.6×
Interest coverage
5× operating income ÷ interest
Current ratio
1.04 current assets ÷ current liabilities
Cash conversion cycle
—

Three classic screens of the accounts

Each asks a different question of the same statements — is it improving, does it look like a company heading for distress, do the accounts resemble ones that were manipulated. None is a verdict; each shows what moves it.

Piotroski F-score

Is the business improving? Nine yes-or-no tests, this year against last.

6of 9 tests passed
  • ProfitableReturn on assets above zero passed
  • Cash from operationsOperating cash flow above zero passed
  • Profitability improvedReturn on assets higher than a year before failed
  • Profit backed by cashOperating cash flow above net income (low accruals) passed
  • Less long-term debtLong-term debt as a share of assets fell failed
  • More liquidCurrent ratio higher than a year before passed
  • No new sharesShare count did not grow passed
  • Better gross marginGross margin higher than a year before passed
  • Sells more per assetAsset turnover higher than a year before failed

Where it misleads: it measures change, not level. An excellent business that stood still for a year scores low; a poor one recovering from a disaster scores high.

Altman Z''-score

Does the balance sheet look like those of companies that went bankrupt?

The accounts lack a line it needs (retained earnings, current assets or liabilities).

Beneish M-score

Do the accounts resemble those of companies that manipulated their earnings?

-2.76below the -1.78 line
  • Receivables vs sales 1.00 (not reported, set to 1)+0.92
  • Gross margin slipping 0.91+0.48
  • Soft assets 1.01+0.41
  • Sales growth 0.94+0.83
  • Slower depreciation 0.99+0.11
  • Overheads vs sales 1.10-0.19
  • Profit not in cash -0.04-0.17
  • Leverage rising 0.98-0.32

Where it misleads: fast growth and acquisitions. Sales growth carries a heavy weight, so a company growing 50% a year scores like a suspect without having done anything. It is a screen from a 1999 study, not an accusation.

Where the statements disagree

Cross-checks between the income statement, the balance sheet and the cash flow for the latest year, each with the benign reading and the worrying one.

The effective tax rate is 0.4%.

Benign

A favourable geographic mix, or legitimate tax credits.

Worrying

Not sustainable; projecting it forward inflates the valuation.

Net debt is 3.6 times EBITDA.

Benign

A stable sector with predictable cash flows and comfortable maturities.

Worrying

Little room if earnings fall; the maturity schedule is what to check.

What is it worth, under which assumptions?

A company is worth the cash it will generate, brought back to today. This model projects revenue with growth that fades over the years, applies a free cash flow margin, and discounts the result at the cost of capital. Every assumption says where it came from, and all of them can be changed.

Revenue
M $

revenue of fiscal 2025

%

revenue grew +14.1% a year over the last 5 years; it fades to the terminal rate by the last year

yrs

ten years for growth to fade to the terminal rate

Cash from each sale
%

free cash flow to the firm after stock-based pay ÷ revenue, last 3 fiscal years together

%

the margin in year ten; by default the business keeps today's

The long run
%

growth forever after year ten, below the risk-free rate: no company outgrows the economy forever

The discount rate
%

10-year US Treasury yield (FRED, DGS10), 2026-09-24

not measured on this public page, which uses only public filings: 1.0 assumes it moves like the market. Sign in to measure it from prices

%

the extra return demanded for holding shares; it cannot be measured, and 4–6% is the common range

%

interest expense ÷ debt = 4.1%, kept between the risk-free rate and +8 points

%

effective rate in the last fiscal year, 0.4%, kept within 0–35%

The price
$

Type the price you see at your broker. It is used only for the reverse questions: what that price implies.

Back to the defaults

SEC from the filings Treasury the 10-year yield measured from prices assumption cannot be measured yours you changed it

80% of the value comes from after year 10: this valuation rests mostly on the long run, which is exactly what is least known.
Value per share, with these assumptions $161.62 discounted at 5.2% a year · 80% of it from after year 10
$90.1280% of 4,661 simulations$301.07
Cautious $68.11 10.0% growth · 9.8% margin · 6.2% discount · 2.0% forever
Your assumptions $161.62 14.0% growth · 11.5% margin · 5.2% discount · 2.5% forever
Generous $536.18 18.0% growth · 13.2% margin · 4.2% discount · 3.0% forever

Type a share price on the left to ask the reverse questions: what growth, what margin or what discount rate that price implies.

What the value implies, in the usual multiples

At this model's value
Price ÷ earnings60.9×
Enterprise value ÷ EBITDA41.4×
Enterprise value ÷ revenue7.4×
Free cash flow yield0.8%

From cash flows to a value per share

10 years of cash flow, today78.0B
Everything after, today309.0B
The whole business387.1B
Minus net debt-33.4B
What belongs to shareholders353.6B

Divided among 2.2B shares: <strong>$161.62</strong> each.

The projection next to its history

Reported free cash flow after stock pay, then the model's. A projection that looks nothing like the past needs a reason.

ReportedProjected
Year by year
2026202720282029203020312032203320342035
Revenue60.0B67.6B75.3B83.0B90.4B97.2B103.4B108.6B112.7B115.5B
Growth14.0%12.7%11.4%10.2%8.9%7.6%6.3%5.1%3.8%2.5%
Cash margin11.5%11.5%11.5%11.5%11.5%11.5%11.5%11.5%11.5%11.5%
Free cash flow6.9B7.8B8.6B9.5B10.4B11.2B11.9B12.5B12.9B13.3B
Worth today6.5B7.0B7.4B7.8B8.1B8.3B8.3B8.3B8.2B8.0B

If the least-known inputs move

Value per share as two inputs change at a time. Neighbouring cells that differ a lot are the conclusion: the value depends on numbers nobody knows to a point.

The discount rate and growth forever

discount ↓ · forever →1.5%2.0%2.5%3.0%3.5%
4.2% 168 208 271 389 686
4.7% 138 165 204 266 382
5.2% 117 136 162 200 261
5.7% 100 114 133 158 196
6.2% 87 98 112 130 155

Year-one growth and the final margin

margin ↓ · growth →10.0%12.0%14.0%16.0%18.0%
9.2% 106 117 129 142 156
10.3% 120 132 145 160 175
11.5% 133 147 162 177 194
12.6% 147 162 178 195 214
13.8% 160 176 194 213 233

All the inputs moving at once

4,661 valuations, each with growth, final margin, discount rate and growth forever drawn at random around the values on the left (spreads of 3.0%, 2.0%, 1.0% and 0.5%). Not a probability — the spreads are assumptions too — but an honest picture of how wide the answer is.

Half of the simulations land between <b>$116.06</b> and <b>$215.75</b>; one in ten below $90.12, one in ten above $301.07.

Does the long run make sense?

  • 24.9×The terminal value prices the business in year 10 at 24.9 times that year's EBITDA.
  • 15%To grow 2.5% forever while reinvesting 17% of its after-tax operating profit, the business must earn 15% on the new capital.
  • 80%of the value comes from after year 10. The more of it, the more the answer depends on the part nobody can see.
The discount rate, taken apart
  1. What shareholders demand (CAPM): 5.18% risk-free + 1.00 beta × 5.0% premium = <strong>10.18%</strong>.
  2. What lenders charge, after the tax saving on interest: 5.18% × (1 − 0.4%) = <strong>5.16%</strong>.
  3. Weighted by how much of each the company uses (book value (no price given)): <strong>5.16%</strong>, the rate every future cash flow is discounted at.

What it has filed lately

The last twelve months at the SEC, most important first: annual and quarterly reports, events, large holders and insiders.

Companies like this one

Same SEC industry (natural gas transmission) first, then the rest of energy.

Every figure, year by year

10 fiscal years · 30 measures
2016201720182019202020212022202320242025
Size
Revenue23.0B29.2B36.5B32.8B27.2B40.8B58.2B49.7B56.2B52.6B
Revenue growth—+27.0%+24.9%-10.3%-17.0%+50.0%+42.6%-14.6%+13.1%-6.4%
Operating income3.6B3.9B5.4B6.1B5.0B6.1B6.9B6.9B7.3B7.3B
Net income2.5B2.8B4.2B4.6B3.8B4.6B5.5B5.5B5.9B5.8B
Margins
Gross margin31.8%26.5%26.7%32.7%38.5%26.8%21.2%25.5%24.3%26.7%
Operating margin15.6%13.4%14.8%18.5%18.5%15.0%11.9%13.9%13.1%13.8%
Net margin10.9%9.6%11.4%14.0%13.9%11.4%9.4%11.1%10.5%11.0%
Free cash flow margin4.7%5.4%5.2%6.1%9.6%15.4%10.4%8.7%6.4%5.6%
R&D ÷ revenue——————————
SG&A ÷ revenue0.7%0.6%0.6%0.6%0.8%0.5%0.4%0.5%0.4%0.5%
Cash
Free cash flow1.1B1.6B1.9B2.0B2.6B6.3B6.1B4.3B3.6B3.0B
Stock-based pay89.2M99.7M106.1M143.9M159.0M152.0M157.0M172.0M188.0M197.0M
Free cash flow after stock pay993.5M1.5B1.8B1.8B2.4B6.1B5.9B4.1B3.4B2.8B
Free cash flow to the firm2.1B2.0B4.0B1.6B2.2B3.9B6.9B10.9B4.1B3.8B
Free cash flow ÷ net income0.4×0.6×0.5×0.4×0.7×1.4×1.1×0.8×0.6×0.5×
Capex ÷ revenue13.0%10.6%11.6%13.8%12.1%5.4%3.4%6.6%8.1%10.7%
Returns
Return on invested capital——————————
Return on equity——————————
Return on assets4.8%5.1%7.3%7.4%5.9%6.9%8.1%7.8%7.6%7.5%
Asset turnover0.4×0.5×0.6×0.5×0.4×0.6×0.9×0.7×0.7×0.7×
Economic profit——————————
Per share
Earnings per share$1.20$1.30$1.91$2.09$1.71$2.10$2.50$2.52$2.69$2.66
Free cash flow per share$0.52$0.73$0.87$0.90$1.18$2.86$2.76$1.96$1.63$1.36
Dividend per share——————————
Payout ratio——————————
Book value per share——————————
Diluted shares2.1B2.2B2.2B2.2B2.2B2.2B2.2B2.2B2.2B2.2B
Balance sheet
Net debt23.6B24.6B25.8B27.3B28.8B26.7B28.2B28.6B31.3B33.4B
Net debt ÷ EBITDA4.6×4.4×3.6×3.4×4.1×3.4×3.2×3.3×3.4×3.6×
Interest coverage3.6×4.0×4.9×4.9×3.9×4.8×5.6×5.5×5.4×5.2×
Current ratio0.8×0.7×0.8×0.9×1.1×1.1×0.9×0.9×1.0×1.0×
Cash conversion cycle (days)856842721218758———
Scores
Piotroski F-score—677577766
Altman Z''——————————
Beneish M—-2.27-2.73-2.42-2.77-2.04-2.34-2.88-2.50-2.76

Accounts from the company's own SEC filings; lines some companies do not report are shown as a dash rather than estimated. The risk-free rate is the 10-year US Treasury yield. A DCF is a way of making assumptions explicit, not a forecast: it states what the company would be worth if the assumptions held. The scores are screens that point where to look, not verdicts. Nothing here is a recommendation to buy or sell.