EPD · Energy(natural gas transmission) · 10 years of annual accounts filed with the SEC · latest fiscal year ended 2025-12-31
Enterprise Products Partners L.P. reported revenue of $52.6 billion in fiscal 2025, after growing 9.6% a year over the previous 9 years. Its operating margin narrowed from 15.6% in 2016 to 13.8%. Of the $68.1 billion its operations generated over 10 years, 52.5% went back into the business and 8.1% to acquisitions; the share count rose 4.7%. On the accounting screens, it passes 6 of 9 Piotroski tests and its Beneish M-score is below the -1.78 line; 2 of the six cross-checks between its statements fire.
Revenue, fiscal 202552.6B+9.6% a year over 9 years
Operating margin13.8%gross margin 26.7%
Return on invested capital—
Free cash flow after stock pay2.8B5.3% of revenue
Net debt ÷ EBITDA3.6×net debt 33.4B
Piotroski F-score6/9tests of improvement passed
Is it growing?
Revenue and the operating income it turns into. Growth that does not reach operating income is growth bought with margin.
RevenueOperating income
020.0B40.0B60.0B
2016Revenue 23.0BOperating income 3.6B
2017Revenue 29.2BOperating income 3.9B
2018Revenue 36.5BOperating income 5.4B
2019Revenue 32.8BOperating income 6.1B
2020Revenue 27.2BOperating income 5.0B
2021Revenue 40.8BOperating income 6.1B
2022Revenue 58.2BOperating income 6.9B
2023Revenue 49.7BOperating income 6.9B
2024Revenue 56.2BOperating income 7.3B
2025Revenue 52.6BOperating income 7.3B
2016201720182019202020212022202320242025
Compound growth a year
3 yrs
5 yrs
9 yrs
Revenue
-3.3%
+14.1%
+9.6%
Operating income
+1.7%
+7.6%
+8.2%
Net income
+1.9%
+9.0%
+9.8%
Earnings per share
+2.1%
+9.1%
+9.2%
Free cash flow per share
-21.1%
+2.8%
+11.3%
Shares
-0.2%
-0.1%
+0.5%
Falling shares are buybacks: each remaining share owns more of the company.
Does it earn more than its capital costs?
Margins say how much of each sale is kept; return on invested capital says how much the business earns on the money it needs to operate. Growth only creates value when that return is above the cost of the capital.
Return on invested capitalCost of capital today · 5.2%
0.0%2.0%4.0%6.0%
2016
2017
2018
2019
2020
2021
2022
2023
2024
2025
2016201720182019202020212022202320242025
Economic profit
Needs a cost of capital, which comes from the valuation below.
Return on equity
—
Return on assets
7.5%
Asset turnover
0.68×
Overheads (SG&A)
0.5% of revenue
Is the profit cash, and where does the cash go?
Net income is an accounting opinion; free cash flow is what was left in the bank after investing. Stock-based pay does not leave the bank — shareholders pay it through dilution — so it is shown taken off as well.
Net incomeFree cash flowAfter stock-based pay
02.0B4.0B6.0B8.0B
2016Net income 2.5BFree cash flow 1.1BAfter stock-based pay 993.5M
2017Net income 2.8BFree cash flow 1.6BAfter stock-based pay 1.5B
2018Net income 4.2BFree cash flow 1.9BAfter stock-based pay 1.8B
2019Net income 4.6BFree cash flow 2.0BAfter stock-based pay 1.8B
2020Net income 3.8BFree cash flow 2.6BAfter stock-based pay 2.4B
2021Net income 4.6BFree cash flow 6.3BAfter stock-based pay 6.1B
2022Net income 5.5BFree cash flow 6.1BAfter stock-based pay 5.9B
2023Net income 5.5BFree cash flow 4.3BAfter stock-based pay 4.1B
2024Net income 5.9BFree cash flow 3.6BAfter stock-based pay 3.4B
2025Net income 5.8BFree cash flow 3.0BAfter stock-based pay 2.8B
2016201720182019202020212022202320242025
Where 10 years of operating cash went, 2016–2025
68.1B generated by the business. Each band is its share of that total.
Reinvested in the business 52%35.7B
Acquisitions 8%5.5B
Dividends 0%0
Share buybacks 2%1.5B
Kept, or used to pay down debt 37%25.4B
Over the same years it paid 1.5B in stock. The share count rose 4.7%. 5.0M of the buybacks went beyond offsetting that dilution.
Per share
Earnings per shareFree cash flow per shareDividend per share
$0.00$1.00$2.00$3.00
2016Earnings per share $1.20Free cash flow per share $0.52
2017Earnings per share $1.30Free cash flow per share $0.73
2018Earnings per share $1.91Free cash flow per share $0.87
2019Earnings per share $2.09Free cash flow per share $0.90
2020Earnings per share $1.71Free cash flow per share $1.18
2021Earnings per share $2.10Free cash flow per share $2.86
2022Earnings per share $2.50Free cash flow per share $2.76
2023Earnings per share $2.52Free cash flow per share $1.96
2024Earnings per share $2.69Free cash flow per share $1.63
2025Earnings per share $2.66Free cash flow per share $1.36
2016201720182019202020212022202320242025
Shares outstanding
Diluted shares
2.0B2.1B2.1B2.2B2.2B
2016Diluted shares 2.1B
2017Diluted shares 2.2B
2018Diluted shares 2.2B
2019Diluted shares 2.2B
2020Diluted shares 2.2B
2021Diluted shares 2.2B
2022Diluted shares 2.2B
2023Diluted shares 2.2B
2024Diluted shares 2.2B
2025Diluted shares 2.2B
2016201720182019202020212022202320242025
How strong is the balance sheet?
Debt is not bad in itself; debt the business cannot service in a bad year is. Net debt is debt minus cash, and below zero the company holds more cash than it owes.
Net debt
010.0B20.0B30.0B40.0B
2016Net debt 23.6B
2017Net debt 24.6B
2018Net debt 25.8B
2019Net debt 27.3B
2020Net debt 28.8B
2021Net debt 26.7B
2022Net debt 28.2B
2023Net debt 28.6B
2024Net debt 31.3B
2025Net debt 33.4B
2016201720182019202020212022202320242025
Net debt ÷ EBITDA
3.6×
Interest coverage
5× operating income ÷ interest
Current ratio
1.04 current assets ÷ current liabilities
Cash conversion cycle
—
Three classic screens of the accounts
Each asks a different question of the same statements — is it improving, does it look like a company heading for distress, do the accounts resemble ones that were manipulated. None is a verdict; each shows what moves it.
Piotroski F-score
Is the business improving? Nine yes-or-no tests, this year against last.
6of 9 tests passed
✓ProfitableReturn on assets above zeropassed
✓Cash from operationsOperating cash flow above zeropassed
✕Profitability improvedReturn on assets higher than a year beforefailed
✓Profit backed by cashOperating cash flow above net income (low accruals)passed
✕Less long-term debtLong-term debt as a share of assets fellfailed
✓More liquidCurrent ratio higher than a year beforepassed
✓No new sharesShare count did not growpassed
✓Better gross marginGross margin higher than a year beforepassed
✕Sells more per assetAsset turnover higher than a year beforefailed
Where it misleads: it measures change, not level. An excellent business that stood still for a year scores low; a poor one recovering from a disaster scores high.
Altman Z''-score
Does the balance sheet look like those of companies that went bankrupt?
The accounts lack a line it needs (retained earnings, current assets or liabilities).
Beneish M-score
Do the accounts resemble those of companies that manipulated their earnings?
-2.76below the -1.78 line
-1.78
Receivables vs sales 1.00 (not reported, set to 1)+0.92
Gross margin slipping 0.91+0.48
Soft assets 1.01+0.41
Sales growth 0.94+0.83
Slower depreciation 0.99+0.11
Overheads vs sales 1.10-0.19
Profit not in cash -0.04-0.17
Leverage rising 0.98-0.32
Where it misleads: fast growth and acquisitions. Sales growth carries a heavy weight, so a company growing 50% a year scores like a suspect without having done anything. It is a screen from a 1999 study, not an accusation.
Where the statements disagree
Cross-checks between the income statement, the balance sheet and the cash flow for the latest year, each with the benign reading and the worrying one.
The effective tax rate is 0.4%.
Benign
A favourable geographic mix, or legitimate tax credits.
Worrying
Not sustainable; projecting it forward inflates the valuation.
Net debt is 3.6 times EBITDA.
Benign
A stable sector with predictable cash flows and comfortable maturities.
Worrying
Little room if earnings fall; the maturity schedule is what to check.
What is it worth, under which assumptions?
A company is worth the cash it will generate, brought back to today. This model projects revenue with growth that fades over the years, applies a free cash flow margin, and discounts the result at the cost of capital. Every assumption says where it came from, and all of them can be changed.
80% of the value comes from after year 10: this valuation rests mostly on the long run, which is exactly what is least known.
Value per share, with these assumptions$161.62discounted at 5.2% a year · 80% of it from after year 10
Type a share price on the left to ask the reverse questions: what growth, what margin or what discount rate that price implies.
What the value implies, in the usual multiples
At this model's value
Price ÷ earnings
60.9×
Enterprise value ÷ EBITDA
41.4×
Enterprise value ÷ revenue
7.4×
Free cash flow yield
0.8%
From cash flows to a value per share
10 years of cash flow, today78.0B
Everything after, today309.0B
The whole business387.1B
Minus net debt-33.4B
What belongs to shareholders353.6B
Divided among 2.2B shares: <strong>$161.62</strong> each.
The projection next to its history
Reported free cash flow after stock pay, then the model's. A projection that looks nothing like the past needs a reason.
ReportedProjected
05.0B10.0B15.0B
2016Reported 993.5M
2017Reported 1.5B
2018Reported 1.8B
2019Reported 1.8B
2020Reported 2.4B
2021Reported 6.1B
2022Reported 5.9B
2023Reported 4.1B
2024Reported 3.4B
2025Reported 2.8B
2026Projected 6.9B
2027Projected 7.8B
2028Projected 8.6B
2029Projected 9.5B
2030Projected 10.4B
2031Projected 11.2B
2032Projected 11.9B
2033Projected 12.5B
2034Projected 12.9B
2035Projected 13.3B
2016201820202022202420262028203020322034
Year by year
2026
2027
2028
2029
2030
2031
2032
2033
2034
2035
Revenue
60.0B
67.6B
75.3B
83.0B
90.4B
97.2B
103.4B
108.6B
112.7B
115.5B
Growth
14.0%
12.7%
11.4%
10.2%
8.9%
7.6%
6.3%
5.1%
3.8%
2.5%
Cash margin
11.5%
11.5%
11.5%
11.5%
11.5%
11.5%
11.5%
11.5%
11.5%
11.5%
Free cash flow
6.9B
7.8B
8.6B
9.5B
10.4B
11.2B
11.9B
12.5B
12.9B
13.3B
Worth today
6.5B
7.0B
7.4B
7.8B
8.1B
8.3B
8.3B
8.3B
8.2B
8.0B
If the least-known inputs move
Value per share as two inputs change at a time. Neighbouring cells that differ a lot are the conclusion: the value depends on numbers nobody knows to a point.
The discount rate and growth forever
discount ↓ · forever →
1.5%
2.0%
2.5%
3.0%
3.5%
4.2%
168
208
271
389
686
4.7%
138
165
204
266
382
5.2%
117
136
162
200
261
5.7%
100
114
133
158
196
6.2%
87
98
112
130
155
Year-one growth and the final margin
margin ↓ · growth →
10.0%
12.0%
14.0%
16.0%
18.0%
9.2%
106
117
129
142
156
10.3%
120
132
145
160
175
11.5%
133
147
162
177
194
12.6%
147
162
178
195
214
13.8%
160
176
194
213
233
All the inputs moving at once
4,661 valuations, each with growth, final margin, discount rate and growth forever drawn at random around the values on the left (spreads of 3.0%, 2.0%, 1.0% and 0.5%). Not a probability — the spreads are assumptions too — but an honest picture of how wide the answer is.
10th percentile$90.12
Median$155.59
90th percentile$301.07
$200.00$400.00
Half of the simulations land between <b>$116.06</b> and <b>$215.75</b>; one in ten below $90.12, one in ten above $301.07.
Does the long run make sense?
24.9×The terminal value prices the business in year 10 at 24.9 times that year's EBITDA.
15%To grow 2.5% forever while reinvesting 17% of its after-tax operating profit, the business must earn 15% on the new capital.
80%of the value comes from after year 10. The more of it, the more the answer depends on the part nobody can see.
Accounts from the company's own SEC filings; lines some companies do not report are shown as a dash rather than estimated. The risk-free rate is the 10-year US Treasury yield. A DCF is a way of making assumptions explicit, not a forecast: it states what the company would be worth if the assumptions held. The scores are screens that point where to look, not verdicts. Nothing here is a recommendation to buy or sell.