CELH · Consumer staples(bottled & canned soft drinks & carbonated waters) · 10 years of annual accounts filed with the SEC · latest fiscal year ended 2025-12-31
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Celsius Holdings, Inc. reported revenue of $2.5 billion in fiscal 2025. Of the $757.2 million its operations generated over 10 years, 11.8% went back into the business and 9.9% to acquisitions; the share count rose 112.4%. On the accounting screens, it passes 4 of 9 Piotroski tests, its Altman Z'' of 1.81 is in the grey zone and its Beneish M-score is above the -1.78 line; 2 of the six cross-checks between its statements fire.
Revenue, fiscal 20252.5B
Operating margin5.6%gross margin 50.4%
Return on invested capital6.6%17.8% on average over 2 years
Free cash flow after stock pay295.3M11.7% of revenue
Net debt ÷ EBITDA1.6×net debt 278.1M
Piotroski F-score4/9tests of improvement passed
Share counts are in today's shares. The SEC's filings restate only recent years after a split, so these jumps were read as splits and the older years scaled to match — otherwise per-share figures would compare different units:
3-for-1 before fiscal 2021.
Is it growing?
Revenue and the operating income it turns into. Growth that does not reach operating income is growth bought with margin.
RevenueOperating income
-1B01B2B3B
2016Operating income -2.8M
2017Revenue 36.2MOperating income -8.1M
2018Revenue 52.6MOperating income -10.6M
2019Revenue 75.1MOperating income -1.4M
2020Revenue 130.7MOperating income 7.9M
2021Revenue 314.3MOperating income -4.1M
2022Revenue 653.6MOperating income -157.8M
2023Revenue 1.3BOperating income 266.4M
2024Revenue 1.4BOperating income 155.7M
2025Revenue 2.5BOperating income 141.1M
2016201720182019202020212022202320242025
Compound growth a year
3 yrs
5 yrs
9 yrs
Revenue
+56.7%
+80.7%
—
Operating income
—
+77.9%
—
Net income
—
+66.2%
—
Earnings per share
—
+61.8%
—
Free cash flow per share
+42.3%
+151.4%
—
Shares
+3.9%
+2.7%
+8.7%
Falling shares are buybacks: each remaining share owns more of the company.
Does it earn more than its capital costs?
Margins say how much of each sale is kept; return on invested capital says how much the business earns on the money it needs to operate. Growth only creates value when that return is above the cost of the capital.
Needs a cost of capital, which comes from the valuation below.
Return on equity
9.1%
Return on assets
2.1%
Asset turnover
0.49×
Research & development
0.1% of revenue
Overheads (SG&A)
31.8% of revenue
Is the profit cash, and where does the cash go?
Net income is an accounting opinion; free cash flow is what was left in the bank after investing. Stock-based pay does not leave the bank — shareholders pay it through dilution — so it is shown taken off as well.
Net incomeFree cash flowAfter stock-based pay
-200M0200M400M
2016Net income -3.1MFree cash flow -2.4MAfter stock-based pay -4.0M
2017Net income -8.2MFree cash flow -8.5MAfter stock-based pay -10.7M
2018Net income -11.2MFree cash flow -11.8MAfter stock-based pay -16.1M
2019Net income 10.0MFree cash flow 956,014After stock-based pay -3.9M
2020Net income 8.5MFree cash flow 2.8MAfter stock-based pay -3.5M
2021Net income 3.9MFree cash flow -99.7MAfter stock-based pay -136.2M
2022Net income -187.3MFree cash flow 99.9MAfter stock-based pay 79.3M
2023Net income 226.8MFree cash flow 123.8MAfter stock-based pay 102.6M
2024Net income 145.1MFree cash flow 239.5MAfter stock-based pay 219.9M
2025Net income 108.0MFree cash flow 323.4MAfter stock-based pay 295.3M
2016201720182019202020212022202320242025
Where 10 years of operating cash went, 2016–2025
757.2M generated by the business. Each band is its share of that total.
Reinvested in the business 12%89.1M
Acquisitions 10%75.3M
Dividends 0%0
Share buybacks 1%8.0M
Kept, or used to pay down debt 77%584.7M
Over the same years it paid 145.3M in stock. The share count rose 112.4%. The buybacks did not even cover what was handed out in stock.
Per share
Earnings per shareFree cash flow per shareDividend per share
-$1$0$1$2
2016Earnings per share $-0.03Free cash flow per share $-0.02
2017Earnings per share $-0.06Free cash flow per share $-0.06
2018Earnings per share $-0.07Free cash flow per share $-0.08
2019Earnings per share $0.05Free cash flow per share $0.00
2020Earnings per share $0.04Free cash flow per share $0.01
2021Earnings per share $0.02Free cash flow per share $-0.43
2022Earnings per share $-0.83Free cash flow per share $0.44
2023Earnings per share $0.96Free cash flow per share $0.52
2024Earnings per share $0.61Free cash flow per share $1.01
2025Earnings per share $0.42Free cash flow per share $1.27
2016201720182019202020212022202320242025
Shares outstanding
Diluted shares
100M150M200M250M300M
2016Diluted shares 120.0M
2017Diluted shares 137.1M
2018Diluted shares 150.2M
2019Diluted shares 192.6M
2020Diluted shares 223.3M
2021Diluted shares 233.1M
2022Diluted shares 226.9M
2023Diluted shares 237.0M
2024Diluted shares 237.4M
2025Diluted shares 254.9M
2016201720182019202020212022202320242025
Debt and liquidity
Debt is not bad in itself; debt the business cannot service in a bad year is. Net debt is debt minus cash, and below zero the company holds more cash than it owes.
Net debt
-1.0B-0.5B00.5B
2016
2017
2018
2019Net debt -14.5M
2020
2021
2022
2023
2024Net debt -890.2M
2025Net debt 278.1M
2016201720182019202020212022202320242025
Net debt ÷ EBITDA
1.6×
Interest coverage
3× operating income ÷ interest
Current ratio
1.68 current assets ÷ current liabilities
Cash conversion cycle
168 days collects in 110d, stock 99d, pays in 40d
Three classic screens of the accounts
Each asks a different question of the same statements — is it improving, does it look like a company heading for distress, do the accounts resemble ones that were manipulated. None is a verdict; each shows what moves it.
Piotroski F-score
Is the business improving? Nine yes-or-no tests, this year against last.
4of 9 tests passed
✓ProfitableReturn on assets above zeropassed
✓Cash from operationsOperating cash flow above zeropassed
✕Profitability improvedReturn on assets higher than a year beforefailed
✓Profit backed by cashOperating cash flow above net income (low accruals)passed
✕Less long-term debtLong-term debt as a share of assets fellfailed
✕More liquidCurrent ratio higher than a year beforefailed
✕No new sharesShare count did not growfailed
✓Better gross marginGross margin higher than a year beforepassed
✕Sells more per assetAsset turnover higher than a year beforefailed
Where it misleads: it measures change, not level. An excellent business that stood still for a year scores low; a poor one recovering from a disaster scores high.
Altman Z''-score
Does the balance sheet look like those of companies that went bankrupt?
1.81grey zone
1.12.6
Working capital ÷ assets 0.14 × 6.56+0.94
Retained earnings ÷ assets 0.03 × 3.26+0.11
Operating income ÷ assets 0.03 × 6.72+0.19
Equity ÷ liabilities 0.54 × 1.05+0.57
Where it misleads: buybacks. A company that returns so much cash that its equity turns small or negative sinks the last two ratios without being anywhere near bankruptcy. Banks and insurers do not fit the model at all.
Beneish M-score
Do the accounts resemble those of companies that manipulated their earnings?
-0.97above the -1.78 line
-1.78
Receivables vs sales 1.51+1.39
Gross margin slipping 1.00+0.53
Soft assets 2.87+1.16
Sales growth 1.86+1.66
Slower depreciation 0.46+0.05
Overheads vs sales 0.82-0.14
Profit not in cash -0.05-0.23
Leverage rising 1.65-0.54
Where it misleads: fast growth and acquisitions. Sales growth carries a heavy weight, so a company growing 50% a year scores like a suspect without having done anything. It is a screen from a 1999 study, not an accusation.
Where the statements disagree
Cross-checks between the income statement, the balance sheet and the cash flow for the latest year, each with the benign reading and the worrying one.
Receivables are growing 179% against revenue growing 86%.
Benign
A shift towards larger customers on longer terms, or sales concentrated at the end of the period.
Worrying
Sales are being made on looser credit, or revenue has been booked that may never be collected.
Inventory is growing 157% against revenue growing 86%.
Benign
Stocking up for a launch, or securing supply.
Worrying
Demand is softening; discounts or write-downs tend to follow.
What is it worth, under which assumptions?
A company is worth the cash it will generate, brought back to today. This model projects revenue with growth that fades over the years, applies a free cash flow margin, and discounts the result at the cost of capital. Every assumption says where it came from, and all of them can be changed.
With a free cash flow margin at or below zero in year ten, the business never generates cash for its owners and a DCF says nothing useful. Set a positive margin for year ten to see what it would take.
What it has filed lately
The last twelve months at the SEC, most important first: annual and quarterly reports, events, large holders and insiders.
Every Form 4 filed in the last twelve months, read line by line: 6 filings by 6 people. Open-market purchases and sales are counted apart from awards, option exercises and shares withheld for taxes.
Bought on the open market$1.8M4 purchase(s) by 3 insider(s)
Sold on the open market—none in the period
Under pre-arranged plans—of the sales followed a 10b5-1 plan set months earlier
A Form 4 says what happened, when, how many shares and at what price. It does not say why: a sale can be diversification, a tax bill or a plan fixed months earlier, and an award is pay, not a purchase. Nothing here is a reason to buy or sell anything.
Which large funds report holding it
From the Form 13F of the 28 institutions followed on this site, as of the end of their last reported quarter. A 13F is filed up to 45 days later and shows only long positions in US-listed shares.
Accounts from the company's own SEC filings; lines some companies do not report are shown as a dash rather than estimated. The risk-free rate is the 10-year US Treasury yield. A DCF is a way of making assumptions explicit, not a forecast: it states what the company would be worth if the assumptions held. The scores are screens that point where to look, not verdicts. Nothing here is a recommendation to buy or sell.
