CDW · Consumer discretionary(retail-catalog & mail-order houses) · 10 years of annual accounts filed with the SEC · latest fiscal year ended 2025-12-31
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CDW Corp reported revenue of $22.4 billion in fiscal 2025, after growing 5.7% a year over the previous 9 years. Its operating margin widened from 6.0% in 2016 to 7.4%, and it earned 15.0% on its invested capital in the latest year. Of the $10.8 billion its operations generated over 10 years, 51.5% went to buybacks and 30.5% to acquisitions; the share count fell 20.4%. On the accounting screens, it passes 5 of 9 Piotroski tests, its Altman Z'' of 1.16 is in the grey zone and its Beneish M-score is below the -1.78 line; 2 of the six cross-checks between its statements fire.
Revenue, fiscal 202522.4B+5.7% a year over 9 years
Operating margin7.4%gross margin 21.7%
Return on invested capital15.0%15.7% on average over 5 years
Free cash flow after stock pay1.0B4.5% of revenue
Net debt ÷ EBITDA2.6×net debt 5.0B
Piotroski F-score5/9tests of improvement passed
Is it growing?
Revenue and the operating income it turns into. Growth that does not reach operating income is growth bought with margin.
RevenueOperating income
010B20B30B
2016Revenue 13.7BOperating income 820.0M
2017Revenue 14.8BOperating income 866.5M
2018Revenue 16.2BOperating income 987.3M
2019Revenue 18.0BOperating income 1.1B
2020Revenue 18.5BOperating income 1.2B
2021Revenue 20.8BOperating income 1.4B
2022Revenue 23.7BOperating income 1.7B
2023Revenue 21.4BOperating income 1.7B
2024Revenue 21.0BOperating income 1.7B
2025Revenue 22.4BOperating income 1.7B
2016201720182019202020212022202320242025
Compound growth a year
3 yrs
5 yrs
9 yrs
Revenue
-1.9%
+4.0%
+5.7%
Operating income
-1.6%
+7.0%
+8.1%
Net income
-1.5%
+6.2%
+10.8%
Earnings per share
-0.2%
+8.2%
+13.6%
Free cash flow per share
-2.2%
+0.6%
+10.9%
Dividend per share
+6.4%
+10.4%
+20.2%
Shares
-1.2%
-1.8%
-2.5%
Falling shares are buybacks: each remaining share owns more of the company.
Does it earn more than its capital costs?
Margins say how much of each sale is kept; return on invested capital says how much the business earns on the money it needs to operate. Growth only creates value when that return is above the cost of the capital.
Return on invested capitalCost of capital today · 6.7%
0%10%20%30%
2016Return on invested capital 12.1%
2017Return on invested capital 16.3%
2018Return on invested capital 18.1%
2019Return on invested capital 20.6%
2020Return on invested capital 17.8%
2021Return on invested capital 14.3%
2022Return on invested capital 17.3%
2023Return on invested capital 16.7%
2024Return on invested capital 15.1%
2025Return on invested capital 15.0%
2016201720182019202020212022202320242025
Economic profit
Economic profit
0200M400M600M800M
2016Economic profit 231.6M
2017Economic profit 403.9M
2018Economic profit 475.7M
2019Economic profit 593.6M
2020Economic profit 578.5M
2021Economic profit 575.4M
2022Economic profit 796.9M
2023Economic profit 766.2M
2024Economic profit 692.2M
2025Economic profit 686.7M
2016201720182019202020212022202320242025
(return on capital − cost of capital) × capital invested: the profit left after paying for the money used. Today's cost of capital is applied to every year, since a past one cannot be rebuilt honestly.
Return on equity
40.9%
Return on assets
6.7%
Asset turnover
1.40×
Overheads (SG&A)
14.3% of revenue
Is the profit cash, and where does the cash go?
Net income is an accounting opinion; free cash flow is what was left in the bank after investing. Stock-based pay does not leave the bank — shareholders pay it through dilution — so it is shown taken off as well.
Net incomeFree cash flowAfter stock-based pay
00.5B1.0B1.5B
2016Net income 425.1MFree cash flow 540.5MAfter stock-based pay 501.3M
2017Net income 523.1MFree cash flow 696.6MAfter stock-based pay 652.9M
2018Net income 643.0MFree cash flow 819.8MAfter stock-based pay 779.1M
2019Net income 736.8MFree cash flow 790.9MAfter stock-based pay 742.4M
2020Net income 788.5MFree cash flow 1.2BAfter stock-based pay 1.1B
2021Net income 988.6MFree cash flow 684.6MAfter stock-based pay 612.0M
2022Net income 1.1BFree cash flow 1.2BAfter stock-based pay 1.1B
2023Net income 1.1BFree cash flow 1.5BAfter stock-based pay 1.4B
2024Net income 1.1BFree cash flow 1.2BAfter stock-based pay 1.1B
2025Net income 1.1BFree cash flow 1.1BAfter stock-based pay 1.0B
2016201720182019202020212022202320242025
Where 10 years of operating cash went, 2016–2025
10.8B generated by the business. Each band is its share of that total.
Reinvested in the business 11%1.2B
Acquisitions 30%3.3B
Dividends 21%2.2B
Share buybacks 51%5.6B
More than it generated: funded with cash or new debt -14%-1.5B
Over the same years it paid 620.3M in stock. The share count fell 20.4%. 5.0B of the buybacks went beyond offsetting that dilution.
Per share
Earnings per shareFree cash flow per shareDividend per share
$0$5$10$15
2016Earnings per share $2.56Free cash flow per share $3.26Dividend per share $0.47
2017Earnings per share $3.31Free cash flow per share $4.40Dividend per share $0.68
2018Earnings per share $4.19Free cash flow per share $5.34Dividend per share $0.91
2019Earnings per share $4.99Free cash flow per share $5.35Dividend per share $1.24
2020Earnings per share $5.45Free cash flow per share $7.99Dividend per share $1.52
2021Earnings per share $7.04Free cash flow per share $4.87Dividend per share $1.67
2022Earnings per share $8.14Free cash flow per share $8.82Dividend per share $2.06
2023Earnings per share $8.10Free cash flow per share $10.64Dividend per share $2.36
2024Earnings per share $7.97Free cash flow per share $8.54Dividend per share $2.46
2025Earnings per share $8.07Free cash flow per share $8.24Dividend per share $2.49
2016201720182019202020212022202320242025
Shares outstanding
Diluted shares
130M140M150M160M170M
2016Diluted shares 166.0M
2017Diluted shares 158.2M
2018Diluted shares 153.6M
2019Diluted shares 147.8M
2020Diluted shares 144.8M
2021Diluted shares 140.5M
2022Diluted shares 137.0M
2023Diluted shares 136.3M
2024Diluted shares 135.2M
2025Diluted shares 132.1M
2016201720182019202020212022202320242025
Debt and liquidity
Debt is not bad in itself; debt the business cannot service in a bad year is. Net debt is debt minus cash, and below zero the company holds more cash than it owes.
Net debt
02B4B6B8B
2016Net debt 3.0B
2017Net debt 3.1B
2018Net debt 3.0B
2019Net debt 3.2B
2020Net debt 2.5B
2021Net debt 6.6B
2022Net debt 5.6B
2023Net debt 5.1B
2024Net debt 5.3B
2025Net debt 5.0B
2016201720182019202020212022202320242025
Net debt ÷ EBITDA
2.6×
Interest coverage
— operating income ÷ interest
Current ratio
1.18 current assets ÷ current liabilities
Cash conversion cycle
— collects in 103d
Three classic screens of the accounts
Each asks a different question of the same statements — is it improving, does it look like a company heading for distress, do the accounts resemble ones that were manipulated. None is a verdict; each shows what moves it.
Piotroski F-score
Is the business improving? Nine yes-or-no tests, this year against last.
5of 9 tests passed
✓ProfitableReturn on assets above zeropassed
✓Cash from operationsOperating cash flow above zeropassed
✕Profitability improvedReturn on assets higher than a year beforefailed
✓Profit backed by cashOperating cash flow above net income (low accruals)passed
✓Less long-term debtLong-term debt as a share of assets fellpassed
✕More liquidCurrent ratio higher than a year beforefailed
✓No new sharesShare count did not growpassed
✕Better gross marginGross margin higher than a year beforefailed
✕Sells more per assetAsset turnover higher than a year beforefailed
Where it misleads: it measures change, not level. An excellent business that stood still for a year scores low; a poor one recovering from a disaster scores high.
Altman Z''-score
Does the balance sheet look like those of companies that went bankrupt?
1.16grey zone
1.12.6
Working capital ÷ assets 0.08 × 6.56+0.52
Retained earnings ÷ assets -0.08 × 3.26-0.26
Operating income ÷ assets 0.10 × 6.72+0.69
Equity ÷ liabilities 0.19 × 1.05+0.20
Where it misleads: buybacks. A company that returns so much cash that its equity turns small or negative sinks the last two ratios without being anywhere near bankruptcy. Banks and insurers do not fit the model at all.
Beneish M-score
Do the accounts resemble those of companies that manipulated their earnings?
-2.34below the -1.78 line
-1.78
Receivables vs sales 1.15+1.06
Gross margin slipping 1.01+0.53
Soft assets 0.95+0.38
Sales growth 1.07+0.95
Slower depreciation 0.93+0.11
Overheads vs sales 1.02-0.18
Profit not in cash -0.01-0.04
Leverage rising 0.98-0.32
Where it misleads: fast growth and acquisitions. Sales growth carries a heavy weight, so a company growing 50% a year scores like a suspect without having done anything. It is a screen from a 1999 study, not an accusation.
Where the statements disagree
Cross-checks between the income statement, the balance sheet and the cash flow for the latest year, each with the benign reading and the worrying one.
Receivables are growing 23% against revenue growing 7%.
Benign
A shift towards larger customers on longer terms, or sales concentrated at the end of the period.
Worrying
Sales are being made on looser credit, or revenue has been booked that may never be collected.
Capital spending (117M) is well below depreciation (296M).
Benign
Mature assets, or a business that has become less capital-intensive.
Worrying
Under-investing: today's profit is being held up by consuming tomorrow's capacity.
What is it worth, under which assumptions?
A company is worth the cash it will generate, brought back to today. This model projects revenue with growth that fades over the years, applies a free cash flow margin, and discounts the result at the cost of capital. Every assumption says where it came from, and all of them can be changed.
Value per share, with these assumptions$123.48discounted at 6.7% a year · 68% of it from after year 10
Type a share price on the left to ask the reverse questions: what growth, what margin or what discount rate that price implies.
What the value implies, in the usual multiples
At this model's value
Price ÷ earnings
15.3×
Enterprise value ÷ EBITDA
10.9×
Enterprise value ÷ revenue
1.0×
Free cash flow yield
6.2%
From cash flows to a value per share
10 years of cash flow, today6.9B
Everything after, today14.4B
The whole business21.3B
Minus net debt-5.0B
What belongs to shareholders16.3B
Divided among 132.1M shares: <strong>$123.48</strong> each.
The projection next to its history
Reported free cash flow after stock pay, then the model's. A projection that looks nothing like the past needs a reason.
ReportedProjected
00.5B1.0B1.5B
2016Reported 501.3M
2017Reported 652.9M
2018Reported 779.1M
2019Reported 742.4M
2020Reported 1.1B
2021Reported 612.0M
2022Reported 1.1B
2023Reported 1.4B
2024Reported 1.1B
2025Reported 1.0B
2026Projected 847.3M
2027Projected 879.8M
2028Projected 912.1M
2029Projected 944.0M
2030Projected 975.5M
2031Projected 1.0B
2032Projected 1.0B
2033Projected 1.1B
2034Projected 1.1B
2035Projected 1.1B
2016201820202022202420262028203020322034
Year by year
2026
2027
2028
2029
2030
2031
2032
2033
2034
2035
Revenue
23.3B
24.2B
25.1B
26.0B
26.8B
27.7B
28.5B
29.3B
30.1B
30.9B
Growth
4.0%
3.8%
3.7%
3.5%
3.3%
3.2%
3.0%
2.8%
2.7%
2.5%
Cash margin
3.6%
3.6%
3.6%
3.6%
3.6%
3.6%
3.6%
3.6%
3.6%
3.6%
Free cash flow
847.3M
879.8M
912.1M
944.0M
975.5M
1.0B
1.0B
1.1B
1.1B
1.1B
Worth today
794.3M
773.1M
751.2M
728.8M
705.9M
682.6M
659.1M
635.3M
611.4M
587.4M
If the least-known inputs move
Value per share as two inputs change at a time. Neighbouring cells that differ a lot are the conclusion: the value depends on numbers nobody knows to a point.
The discount rate and growth forever
discount ↓ · forever →
1.5%
2.0%
2.5%
3.0%
3.5%
5.7%
129
149
175
210
262
6.2%
111
126
146
171
206
6.7%
97
109
123
142
167
7.2%
85
94
106
121
139
7.7%
75
83
92
104
118
Year-one growth and the final margin
margin ↓ · growth →
0.0%
2.0%
4.0%
6.0%
8.0%
2.9%
75
85
96
108
121
3.3%
86
97
110
123
138
3.6%
97
110
123
138
154
4.0%
109
122
137
153
171
4.4%
120
135
151
168
187
All the inputs moving at once
4,978 valuations, each with growth, final margin, discount rate and growth forever drawn at random around the values on the left (spreads of 3.0%, 2.0%, 1.0% and 0.5%). Not a probability — the spreads are assumptions too — but an honest picture of how wide the answer is.
10th percentile$25.91
Median$122.72
90th percentile$270.87
$0.00$200.00$400.00
Half of the simulations land between <b>$68.94</b> and <b>$189.23</b>; one in ten below $25.91, one in ten above $270.87.
Does the long run make sense?
10.2×The terminal value prices the business in year 10 at 10.2 times that year's EBITDA.
7%To grow 2.5% forever while reinvesting 34% of its after-tax operating profit, the business must earn 7% on the new capital — it has earned 16% on average over the last five years.
68%of the value comes from after year 10. The more of it, the more the answer depends on the part nobody can see.
Every Form 4 filed in the last twelve months, read line by line: 6 filings by 5 people. Open-market purchases and sales are counted apart from awards, option exercises and shares withheld for taxes.
Bought on the open market—none in the period
Sold on the open market—none in the period
Under pre-arranged plans—of the sales followed a 10b5-1 plan set months earlier
A Form 4 says what happened, when, how many shares and at what price. It does not say why: a sale can be diversification, a tax bill or a plan fixed months earlier, and an award is pay, not a purchase. Nothing here is a reason to buy or sell anything.
Which large funds report holding it
From the Form 13F of the 28 institutions followed on this site, as of the end of their last reported quarter. A 13F is filed up to 45 days later and shows only long positions in US-listed shares.
Accounts from the company's own SEC filings; lines some companies do not report are shown as a dash rather than estimated. The risk-free rate is the 10-year US Treasury yield. A DCF is a way of making assumptions explicit, not a forecast: it states what the company would be worth if the assumptions held. The scores are screens that point where to look, not verdicts. Nothing here is a recommendation to buy or sell.