ATR · Materials(plastics products, nec) · 10 years of annual accounts filed with the SEC · latest fiscal year ended 2025-12-31
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Aptargroup, Inc. reported revenue of $3.8 billion in fiscal 2025. Of the $4.0 billion its operations generated over 10 years, 54.0% went back into the business and 25.5% to acquisitions. On the accounting screens, it passes 6 of 8 Piotroski tests and its Altman Z'' of 4.27 is in the safe zone; none of the six cross-checks between its statements fires.
Revenue, fiscal 20253.8B
Operating margin13.3%gross margin —
Return on invested capital14.0%13.5% on average over 5 years
Free cash flow after stock pay255.6M6.8% of revenue
Net debt ÷ EBITDANet cash218.5M more cash than debt
Piotroski F-score6/8tests of improvement passed
Is it growing?
Revenue and the operating income it turns into. Growth that does not reach operating income is growth bought with margin.
RevenueOperating income
01B2B3B4B
2018
2018Revenue 2.8BOperating income 286.3M
2019
2019Revenue 2.9BOperating income 371.7M
2020Revenue 2.9BOperating income 339.5M
2021Revenue 3.2BOperating income 347.3M
2022Revenue 3.3BOperating income 379.3M
2023Revenue 3.5BOperating income 404.0M
2024Revenue 3.6BOperating income 496.5M
2025Revenue 3.8BOperating income 501.0M
2018201820192019202020212022202320242025
Compound growth a year
3 yrs
5 yrs
9 yrs
Revenue
+4.4%
+5.2%
—
Operating income
+9.7%
+8.1%
—
Net income
+18.0%
+12.9%
—
Earnings per share
+18.0%
+12.9%
—
Free cash flow per share
+21.2%
-1.6%
—
Dividend per share
+6.7%
+5.4%
—
Shares
+0.0%
+0.0%
—
Falling shares are buybacks: each remaining share owns more of the company.
Does it earn more than its capital costs?
Margins say how much of each sale is kept; return on invested capital says how much the business earns on the money it needs to operate. Growth only creates value when that return is above the cost of the capital.
GrossOperatingNetFree cash flow
0%5%10%15%
2018
2018Operating 10.4%Net 7.0%Free cash flow 3.7%
2019
2019Operating 13.0%Net 8.5%Free cash flow 9.5%
2020Operating 11.6%Net 7.3%Free cash flow 11.1%
2021Operating 10.8%Net 7.6%Free cash flow 1.7%
2022Operating 11.4%Net 7.2%Free cash flow 5.1%
2023Operating 11.6%Net 8.2%Free cash flow 7.5%
2024Operating 13.9%Net 10.5%Free cash flow 10.2%
2025Operating 13.3%Net 10.4%Free cash flow 7.9%
2018201820192019202020212022202320242025
Return on invested capital
Return on invested capitalCost of capital today · 10.3%
0%5%10%15%20%
2018
2018Return on invested capital 13.8%
2019
2019Return on invested capital 16.3%
2020Return on invested capital 12.7%
2021Return on invested capital 12.4%
2022Return on invested capital 13.2%
2023Return on invested capital 12.8%
2024Return on invested capital 14.9%
2025Return on invested capital 14.0%
2018201820192019202020212022202320242025
Economic profit
Economic profit
050M100M150M
2018
2018Economic profit 52.9M
2019
2019Economic profit 97.0M
2020Economic profit 45.7M
2021Economic profit 45.5M
2022Economic profit 59.9M
2023Economic profit 60.7M
2024Economic profit 123.2M
2025Economic profit 107.0M
2018201820192019202020212022202320242025
(return on capital − cost of capital) × capital invested: the profit left after paying for the money used. Today's cost of capital is applied to every year, since a past one cannot be rebuilt honestly.
Return on equity
14.7%
Return on assets
7.5%
Asset turnover
0.72×
Research & development
2.8% of revenue
Is the profit cash, and where does the cash go?
Net income is an accounting opinion; free cash flow is what was left in the bank after investing. Stock-based pay does not leave the bank — shareholders pay it through dilution — so it is shown taken off as well.
Net incomeFree cash flowAfter stock-based pay
0100M200M300M400M
2018
2018Net income 194.8MFree cash flow 102.4MAfter stock-based pay 82.8M
2019
2019Net income 242.2MFree cash flow 272.2MAfter stock-based pay 248.3M
2020Net income 214.0MFree cash flow 324.2MAfter stock-based pay 290.1M
2021Net income 244.1MFree cash flow 55.5MAfter stock-based pay 16.6M
2022Net income 239.3MFree cash flow 168.2MAfter stock-based pay 127.3M
2023Net income 284.5MFree cash flow 262.9MAfter stock-based pay 221.6M
2024Net income 374.5MFree cash flow 366.9MAfter stock-based pay 319.3M
2025Net income 392.8MFree cash flow 299.6MAfter stock-based pay 255.6M
2018201820192019202020212022202320242025
Where 10 years of operating cash went, 2018–2025
4.0B generated by the business. Each band is its share of that total.
Reinvested in the business 54%2.2B
Acquisitions 26%1.0B
Dividends 20%801.7M
Share buybacks 18%741.9M
More than it generated: funded with cash or new debt -18%-719.4M
Over the same years it paid 290.3M in stock. 451.6M of the buybacks went beyond offsetting that dilution.
Per share
Earnings per shareFree cash flow per shareDividend per share
$0$2$4$6
2018
2018Earnings per share $3.00Free cash flow per share $1.58Dividend per share $1.27
2019
2019Earnings per share $3.66Free cash flow per share $4.11Dividend per share $1.36
2020Earnings per share $3.21Free cash flow per share $4.86Dividend per share $1.39
2021Earnings per share $3.61Free cash flow per share $0.82Dividend per share $1.46
2022Earnings per share $3.59Free cash flow per share $2.52Dividend per share $1.49
2023Earnings per share $4.25Free cash flow per share $3.93Dividend per share $1.55
2024Earnings per share $5.53Free cash flow per share $5.42Dividend per share $1.68
2025Earnings per share $5.89Free cash flow per share $4.49Dividend per share $1.81
2018201820192019202020212022202320242025
Shares outstanding
Diluted shares
64M65M66M67M68M
2018
2018Diluted shares 65.0M
2019
2019Diluted shares 66.2M
2020Diluted shares 66.7M
2021Diluted shares 67.7M
2022Diluted shares 66.7M
2023Diluted shares 66.9M
2024Diluted shares 67.7M
2025Diluted shares 66.7M
2018201820192019202020212022202320242025
Debt and liquidity
Debt is not bad in itself; debt the business cannot service in a bad year is. Net debt is debt minus cash, and below zero the company holds more cash than it owes.
Net debt
-300M-200M-100M0100M
2018
2018Net debt -160.5M
2019
2019Net debt -197.7M
2020Net debt -247.9M
2021Net debt 24.4M
2022Net debt -137.9M
2023Net debt -141.8M
2024Net debt -47.8M
2025Net debt -218.5M
2018201820192019202020212022202320242025
Net debt ÷ EBITDA
-0.3×
Interest coverage
10× operating income ÷ interest
Current ratio
1.62 current assets ÷ current liabilities
Cash conversion cycle
—
Three classic screens of the accounts
Each asks a different question of the same statements — is it improving, does it look like a company heading for distress, do the accounts resemble ones that were manipulated. None is a verdict; each shows what moves it.
Piotroski F-score
Is the business improving? Nine yes-or-no tests, this year against last.
6of 8 tests passed
✓ProfitableReturn on assets above zeropassed
✓Cash from operationsOperating cash flow above zeropassed
✕Profitability improvedReturn on assets higher than a year beforefailed
✓Profit backed by cashOperating cash flow above net income (low accruals)passed
✓Less long-term debtLong-term debt as a share of assets fellpassed
✓More liquidCurrent ratio higher than a year beforepassed
✓No new sharesShare count did not growpassed
–Better gross marginGross margin higher than a year before — not reportedno data
✕Sells more per assetAsset turnover higher than a year beforefailed
Where it misleads: it measures change, not level. An excellent business that stood still for a year scores low; a poor one recovering from a disaster scores high.
Altman Z''-score
Does the balance sheet look like those of companies that went bankrupt?
4.27safe zone
1.12.6
Working capital ÷ assets 0.14 × 6.56+0.91
Retained earnings ÷ assets 0.50 × 3.26+1.64
Operating income ÷ assets 0.10 × 6.72+0.64
Equity ÷ liabilities 1.03 × 1.05+1.08
Where it misleads: buybacks. A company that returns so much cash that its equity turns small or negative sinks the last two ratios without being anywhere near bankruptcy. Banks and insurers do not fit the model at all.
Beneish M-score
Do the accounts resemble those of companies that manipulated their earnings?
The accounts lack too many of the lines it needs.
Where the statements disagree
Cross-checks between the income statement, the balance sheet and the cash flow for the latest year, each with the benign reading and the worrying one.
None of the six cross-checks fires for the latest year: receivables and inventory move with revenue, profit turns into cash, investment keeps up with depreciation, the tax rate is ordinary and debt is moderate.
What is it worth, under which assumptions?
A company is worth the cash it will generate, brought back to today. This model projects revenue with growth that fades over the years, applies a free cash flow margin, and discounts the result at the cost of capital. Every assumption says where it came from, and all of them can be changed.
Value per share, with these assumptions$120.07discounted at 10.3% a year · 49% of it from after year 10
Type a share price on the left to ask the reverse questions: what growth, what margin or what discount rate that price implies.
What the value implies, in the usual multiples
At this model's value
Price ÷ earnings
20.4×
Enterprise value ÷ EBITDA
9.9×
Enterprise value ÷ revenue
2.1×
Free cash flow yield
3.2%
From cash flows to a value per share
10 years of cash flow, today4.0B
Everything after, today3.8B
The whole business7.8B
Plus net cash218.5M
What belongs to shareholders8.0B
Divided among 66.7M shares: <strong>$120.07</strong> each.
The projection next to its history
Reported free cash flow after stock pay, then the model's. A projection that looks nothing like the past needs a reason.
ReportedProjected
0200M400M600M800M
2018
2018Reported 82.8M
2019
2019Reported 248.3M
2020Reported 290.1M
2021Reported 16.6M
2022Reported 127.3M
2023Reported 221.6M
2024Reported 319.3M
2025Reported 255.6M
2026Projected 561.4M
2027Projected 587.9M
2028Projected 614.1M
2029Projected 639.7M
2030Projected 664.5M
2031Projected 688.5M
2032Projected 711.5M
2033Projected 733.2M
2034Projected 753.6M
2035Projected 772.4M
2018201920202022202420262028203020322034
Year by year
2026
2027
2028
2029
2030
2031
2032
2033
2034
2035
Revenue
4.0B
4.2B
4.3B
4.5B
4.7B
4.9B
5.0B
5.2B
5.3B
5.5B
Growth
5.0%
4.7%
4.4%
4.2%
3.9%
3.6%
3.3%
3.1%
2.8%
2.5%
Cash margin
14.2%
14.2%
14.2%
14.2%
14.2%
14.2%
14.2%
14.2%
14.2%
14.2%
Free cash flow
561.4M
587.9M
614.1M
639.7M
664.5M
688.5M
711.5M
733.2M
753.6M
772.4M
Worth today
509.1M
483.4M
457.8M
432.5M
407.4M
382.7M
358.6M
335.1M
312.3M
290.3M
If the least-known inputs move
Value per share as two inputs change at a time. Neighbouring cells that differ a lot are the conclusion: the value depends on numbers nobody knows to a point.
The discount rate and growth forever
discount ↓ · forever →
1.5%
2.0%
2.5%
3.0%
3.5%
9.3%
124
130
138
146
156
9.8%
116
122
128
135
144
10.3%
110
115
120
126
133
10.8%
104
108
113
118
124
11.3%
99
102
107
111
117
Year-one growth and the final margin
margin ↓ · growth →
1.0%
3.0%
5.0%
7.0%
9.0%
11.3%
88
95
103
111
119
12.7%
95
103
111
120
130
14.2%
103
111
120
130
140
15.6%
110
119
129
139
151
17.0%
117
127
137
149
161
All the inputs moving at once
5,000 valuations, each with growth, final margin, discount rate and growth forever drawn at random around the values on the left (spreads of 3.0%, 2.1%, 1.0% and 0.5%). Not a probability — the spreads are assumptions too — but an honest picture of how wide the answer is.
10th percentile$93.01
Median$120.33
90th percentile$159.74
$100.00$150.00$200.00
Half of the simulations land between <b>$104.68</b> and <b>$138.25</b>; one in ten below $93.01, one in ten above $159.74.
Does the long run make sense?
8.9×The terminal value prices the business in year 10 at 8.9 times that year's EBITDA.
Free growthIn year 10 free cash flow is at or above after-tax operating profit, yet the model grows 2.5% forever. Growth needs reinvestment; this assumes it comes for free, which flatters the terminal value.
49%of the value comes from after year 10. The more of it, the more the answer depends on the part nobody can see.
What lenders charge, after the tax saving on interest: 13.26% × (1 − 20.1%) = <strong>10.59%</strong>.
Weighted by how much of each the company uses (book value (no price given)): <strong>10.28%</strong>, the rate every future cash flow is discounted at.
What it has filed lately
The last twelve months at the SEC, most important first: annual and quarterly reports, events, large holders and insiders.
Every Form 4 filed in the last twelve months, read line by line: 6 filings by 5 people. Open-market purchases and sales are counted apart from awards, option exercises and shares withheld for taxes.
Bought on the open market—none in the period
Sold on the open market$3.6M7 sale(s) by 5 insider(s)
Under pre-arranged plans0%of the sales followed a 10b5-1 plan set months earlier
A Form 4 says what happened, when, how many shares and at what price. It does not say why: a sale can be diversification, a tax bill or a plan fixed months earlier, and an award is pay, not a purchase. Nothing here is a reason to buy or sell anything.
Which large funds report holding it
From the Form 13F of the 28 institutions followed on this site, as of the end of their last reported quarter. A 13F is filed up to 45 days later and shows only long positions in US-listed shares.
Accounts from the company's own SEC filings; lines some companies do not report are shown as a dash rather than estimated. The risk-free rate is the 10-year US Treasury yield. A DCF is a way of making assumptions explicit, not a forecast: it states what the company would be worth if the assumptions held. The scores are screens that point where to look, not verdicts. Nothing here is a recommendation to buy or sell.